Pricing U.S. Dollar Index Futures Options: An Empirical Investigation

This paper develops a pricing model and empirically tests the pricing efficiency of options on the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract. Empirical tests of the model indicate that the market consistently overprices these options relative to the derived model. This overpricing is more pronounced for out‐of‐the‐money options than for in‐the‐money options and more pronounced for put options than for call options. To validate the above results, delta neutral portfolios are created for one‐ and two‐day holding periods and consistently generate positive arbitrage profits, indicating that on average the market overprices the options on the USDX futures contracts.     

The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives

We propose an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with seasonal volatility to model the time dynamics of daily average temperatures. The model is fitted to approximately 45 years of daily observations recorded in Stockholm, one of the European cities for which there is a trade in weather futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Explicit pricing dynamics for futures contracts written on the number of heating/cooling degree-days (so-called HDD/CDD futures) and the cumulative average daily temperature (so-called CAT futures) are calculated, along with a discussion on how to evaluate call and put options with these futures as underlying.     

Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk-Transfer Solutions

One of the most significant economic developments of the past decade has been the convergence of the financial services industry, particularly the capital markets and (re)insurance sectors. Convergence has been driven by the increase in the frequency and severity of catastrophic risk, market inefficiencies created by (re)insurance underwriting cycles, advances in computing and communications technologies, the emergence of enterprise risk management, and other factors. These developments have led to the development of hybrid insurance/financial instruments that blend elements of financial contracts with traditional reinsurance as well as new financial instruments patterned on asset-backed securities, futures, and options that provide direct access to capital markets. This article provides a survey and overview of the hybrid and pure financial markets instruments and provides new information on the pricing and returns on contracts such as industry loss warranties and Cat bonds.     

Random sources correlations and carbon futures pricing

For a long time, the correlation between random sources has never been considered in carbon futures pricing, which virtually exists. We document the presence of high correlation between variations in convenience yields of carbon futures with different maturities, whose essence is correlation between random sources. Correlation of random sources arises from the long coverage of convenience yield of carbon emission spot and the complementarity in expiration between carbon futures with different maturities. Since if random sources are correlated will significantly affect the dynamics of convenience yield and finally affect futures prices, we introduce quantum field method to account for the impact of this correlation on futures prices, and proposes the correlation between random sources extended HJM convenience yield model (CRS-HJM-CYM). Empirical results indicate CRS-HJM-CYM performs better than traditional model owing to the role of correlation, which means the correlation between random sources is a pivotal factor in carbon futures pricing.     

Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets

This study examines the pricing efficiency for the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin using spot prices and all CBOE and CME futures contracts traded from January 2018 to March 2019. We find that the futures basis provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price and in the risk premium. However, the basis of Bitcoin is a biased predictor of the future spot price changes. Cointegration tests also demonstrate that futures prices are biased predictors of spot prices. Deviations from no-arbitrage between spot and futures markets are persistent and widen significantly with Bitcoin thefts (hacks, frauds) as well as alternative cryptocurrency issuances.     

THE PRICING OF FUTURES CONTRACTS AND THE ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY

When interest rates are stochastic, the cash flows of futures and forward contracts differ because of the marking-to-market requirement of futures contracts. The price effect of this difference is examined here by applying the risk and return model of the arbitrage pricing theory. The resulting futures pricing equation is preference free, and is obtainable using other no-arbitrage approaches. The pricing equation suggests that the price difference is due to the covariance of spot asset returns and interest rates. An empirical study is conducted on the Major Market Index futures from October 1, 1984 to September 27, 1985. Results indicate that the covariance, extracted by the Kalman filter according to the pricing equation, is significant in the pricing of futures contracts.     

Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy

Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’ expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In particular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and financial business-cycle indicators such as Treasury yield spreads and corporate bond spreads. Excess returns on eurodollar futures display similar patterns. We document that simply ignoring these risk premia significantly biases forecasts of the future path of monetary policy. We also show that risk premia matter for some futures-based measures of monetary policy shocks used in the literature.     

Is It Possible to Construct Derivatives for the Paris Residential Market?

Index-based derivatives markets are fast developing in Europe, the US and Asia. Both valuation based and transactions based indices are used as bases for these derivatives contracts. This paper addresses the issue of revision effects on key index parameters, and their implications for derivatives pricing and questions whether these indices may be suitable for derivatives. More specifically, we address the issue of the robustness of the price level, mean, and volatility estimates for two repeat sales real estate price indices: the classical Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) method and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) factorial method, as elaborated in Baroni et al. (J Real Estate Res, 29(2):137–158, 2007). Our work is an extension of Clapham et al. (Real Estate Econ, 34(2):275–302, 2006), with the aim of helping judge the efficiency of such indices in designing real estate derivatives. We use an extensive repeat sales database for the Paris (France) residential market. We describe the dataset used and compute the parameters (index price level, trend and volatility) of the indices produced over the period 1982–2005. We then test the sensitivity of these two indices to revisions due to additional repeat-sales transactions information. Our analysis is conducted on the overall Paris market as well as on sub-markets. Our main conclusion is that even if the revision problem may cause substantial concern for the stability of key parameters that are used as inputs in the pricing of derivatives contracts, the order of magnitude of revision on derivatives pricing is not sufficient to deter market participants when it comes to products such a swap contract or insurance contracts against severe losses. We also show that WRS and PCA react differently to revision. The impact of index revision is non negligible in estimating the index price level for both indices. This result is consistent with existing literature for the US and Swedish markets. Price level revision causes moderate concern when trading products such as index futures or price insurance contracts, but could deter option like products. We show that managing this price level revision risk is similar to delta hedging in standard option pricing theory. We also find that although revision impact on index trend can be important, the WRS method seems more robust than PCA. However, the trend revision impact order of magnitude for contracts such as total return swaps is low. Finally, revision influence on volatility estimates seems to have a modest impact on derivatives, and according to the robustness of the volatility estimate, the PCA factorial index seems to fare relatively better than the WRS index. Hence, our findings show that the factorial index could better sustain volatility based derivatives. We also show that whatever the index, managing this volatility revision risk is similar to vega hedging in option pricing theory.

A note on managing deposit flows with cash and futures market decisions

As deposit market become less regulated, financial intermediaries must focus more of their attention on the explicit pricing of deposit accounts. An implication of pricing deposits is that the intermediary faces a random source of funds when future deposit supplies are unknown. This note shows that financial futures contracts can be used to hedge the risk of deposit withdrawals, allowing the financial firm to set lower deposit rates than it would without futures trading. A model of risk averse banking behavior is constructed to determine the relationship between hedging deposit withdrawals and setting deposit rates. Using the certificate of deposit futures contract to hedge demand and savings deposit withdrawals, an empirical application of the model reveals that the possible gains in profitability from setting deposit rates and hedging withdrawals are small but statistically significant.     

A Pricing Framework for Real Estate Derivatives

New methods are developed here for pricing the main real estate derivatives — futures and forward contracts, total return swaps, and options. Accounting for the incompleteness of this market, a suitable modelling framework is outlined that can produce exact formulae, assuming that the market price of risk is known. This framework can accommodate econometric properties of real estate indices such as predictability due to autocorrelations. The term structure of the market price of risk is calibrated from futures market prices on the Investment Property Databank index. The evolution of the market price of risk associated with all five futures curves during 2009 is discussed.     

Pricing rainfall futures at the CME

Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring rainfall risk, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) began trading rainfall derivatives in 2011. Compared to temperature derivatives, however, pricing rainfall derivatives is more difficult. In this article, we propose to model rainfall indices via a flexible type of distribution, namely the normal-inverse Gaussian distribution, which captures asymmetries and heavy-tail behaviour. The prices of rainfall futures are computed by employing the Esscher transform, a well-known tool in actuarial science. This approach is flexible enough to price any rainfall contract and to adjust theoretical prices to market prices by using the calibrated market price of risk. The empirical analysis is conducted with US precipitation data and CME futures data providing first results on the market price of risk for rainfall derivatives.     

Pricing of Futures Contracts on Coupon Bonds: Empirical Evidence from Finland

This paper investigates the pricing of the two year old Finnish bond futures market. We show that the market has mispriced the futures contracts during the test period with the futures contracts being underpriced most of the time. We also measure whether the futures market has prediction power over the bond market. Our results suggest that there is a lead-lag relationship between the Finnish bond and the futures markets.     

存在市场摩擦条件下股指期货定价模型及其应用——以沪深300股指期货为例

依据无套利原理,考察存在市场摩擦条件下股指期货定价模型,并将其应用于我国股指期货市场,构建沪深300股指期货套利模型。该套利模型考虑了现实中存在的交易成本、借贷利差等市场摩擦因素对套利机会的影响,从而在实务中具有一定的参考价值。     

"Marking-to-Market" and Treasury-Bill Futures Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

Financial economists have not found empirical evidence of a “marking‐to‐market” effect in Treasury‐bill futures contracts, despite a firm theoretical basis for its existence. Therefore, we speculate that confounding effects, possibly due to liquidity preferences, influence futures‐forward price spreads. By using an empirical specification that allows for both effects, we present empirical evidence that Treasury‐bill futures‐forward price spreads are sensitive to the volatility of the underlying commodity in ways predicted by the theory of the marking‐to‐market effect.     

全球交易所战略合并背景下我国期货结算模式创新研究

独立结算模式和专属结算模式是国际期货市场结算体系的基本模式。在国际期货结算体系的发展实践中,两种模式各有利弊、相互交融、长期共存。随着全球衍生品市场竞争日趋激烈,交易所之间的战略合并成为衍生品市场发展的新趋势。但就期货产品的结算模式而言,专属结算模式成为各个交易所集团共同的选择或发展方向。目前我国期货市场的结算由四家交易所的内设结算部分别进行,随着期货市场创新发展的进一步深入,现行结算模式存在的问题也逐渐显现。建立期货市场独立统一的结算公司或成立交易所控股的结算公司,将是我国期货市场结算模式的路径选择。     

Can the choice of interpolation method explain the difference between swap prices and futures prices?

The standard model linking the swap rate to the rates in a contemporaneous strip of futures interest rate contracts typically produces biased estimates of the swap rate. Institutional differences usually require some form of interpolation to be employed and may in principle explain this empirical result. Using Australian data, we find evidence consistent with this explanation and show that model performance is greatly improved if an alternative interpolation method is used. In doing so, we also provide the first published Australian evidence on the accuracy of the futures‐based approach to pricing interest rate swaps.     

Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes

Traditional quantitative credit risk models assume that changes in credit spreads are normally distributed but empirical evidence shows that they are likely to be skewed, fat-tailed, and change behaviour over time. Not taking into account such characteristics can compromise calculation of loss probabilities, pricing of credit derivatives, and profitability of trading strategies. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the dynamics of higher moments of changes in credit spreads of European corporate bond indexes using extensions of GARCH type models that allow for time-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis of changes in credit spreads as well as a regime-switching GARCH model which allows for regime shifts in the volatility of changes in credit spreads. Performance evaluation methods are used to assess which model captures the dynamics of observed distribution of the changes in credit spreads, produces superior volatility forecasts and Value-at-Risk estimates, and yields profitable trading strategies. The results presented can have significant implications for risk management, trading activities, and pricing of credit derivatives.     

Capital Allocation for Insurance Companies—What Good IS IT?

In their 2001 Journal of Risk and Insurance article, Stewart C. Myers and James A. Read Jr. propose to use a specific capital allocation method for pricing insurance contracts. We show that in their model framework no capital allocation to lines of business is needed for pricing insurance contracts. In the case of having to cover frictional costs, the suggested allocation method may even lead to inappropriate insurance prices. Beside the purpose of pricing insurance contracts, capital allocation methods proposed in the literature and used in insurance practice are typically intended to help derive capital budgeting decisions in insurance companies, such as expanding or contracting lines of business. We also show that net present value analyses provide better capital budgeting decisions than capital allocation in general.     

A Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads

This article provides a Markov model for the term structureof credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull(1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete statespace Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of thisprocess are easily estimated using observable data. This modelis useful for pricing and hedging corporate debt with imbeddedoptions, for pricing and hedging OTC derivatives with counterpartyrisk, for pricing and hedging (foreign) government bonds subjectto default risk (e.g., municipal bonds), for pricing and hedgingcredit derivatives, and for risk management.     

Feedback trading in stock index futures: Evidence from South Africa

This study tests whether investors and speculators in stock index futures contracts on the South African stock market use feedback trading strategies. Feedback trading can be destabilizing and impede on the risk mitigation and price discovery functions of futures contracts. Using the Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) model, and accounting for the global financial crisis, we find no evidence of feedback trading in the Top40 futures index or the Top40 mini futures index contracts. Our findings have important implications for investors who wish to use index futures to mitigate risk or exploit arbitrage opportunities and regulators concerned about the destabilizing effects of futures trading.