IPO first‐day returns: Skewness preference,investor sentiment and uncertainty underlying factors

In this paper, we investigate the initial public offering (IPO) first-day returns. Our focus is to examine the irrational component of the agent behavior towards IPO lotteries. Based on 234 French IPOs performed between 2002 and 2012, we find that IPOs with high initial returns have higher idiosyncratic skewness, turnover and momentum. This finding provides empirical evidence for investors' preference for stocks with lottery-like features and investor sentiment. In addition, we show that the skewness preference and the investor sentiment effect are stronger during periods of favorable market conditions. Our results are robust to the integration of uncertainty underlying factors.     

Investor sentiment and management earnings forecast bias

This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers’ annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers’ annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low‐sentiment periods than during normal‐sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low‐sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment‐related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relationship between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.     

Death and jackpot: Why do individual investors hold overpriced stocks?

Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi (2008) show that firms with a high probability of default have abnormally low average future returns. We show that firms with a high potential for default (death) also tend to have a relatively high probability of extremely large (jackpot) payoffs. Consistent with an investor preference for skewed, lottery-like payoffs, stocks with high predicted probabilities for jackpot returns earn abnormally low average returns. Stocks with high death or jackpot probabilities have relatively low institutional ownership and the jackpot effect we find is much stronger in stocks with high limits to arbitrage.     

The 52-week high,momentum, and investor sentiment

This paper examines the link between the profitability of the 52-week high momentum strategy and investor sentiment. We hypothesize that investors' investment decisions are subject to behavioral biases when the level of investor sentiment is high, resulting in higher profits for the 52-week high momentum following high-sentiment periods. Our empirical results confirm this prediction. In addition, we find that the significant profit of the 52-week high momentum following high-sentiment periods persists up to five years. Further investigations show that the strong persistence of the 52-week high winners (losers) is concentrated in stocks with higher (lower) earnings surprises, especially during periods following high sentiment. Overall, our results provide supportive evidence for the anchoring biases in explaining the 52-week high momentum, especially when the role of investor sentiment is taken into account.     

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

We study how investor sentiment affects the cross‐section of stock returns. We predict that a wave of investor sentiment has larger effects on securities whose valuations are highly subjective and difficult to arbitrage. Consistent with this prediction, we find that when beginning‐of‐period proxies for sentiment are low, subsequent returns are relatively high for small stocks, young stocks, high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non‐dividend‐paying stocks, extreme growth stocks, and distressed stocks. When sentiment is high, on the other hand, these categories of stock earn relatively low subsequent returns.     

Investor sentiment and the stock market’s reaction to monetary policy

This paper shows that monetary policy decisions have a significant effect on investor sentiment. The effect of monetary news on sentiment depends on market conditions (bull versus bear market). We also find that monetary policy actions in bear market periods have a larger effect on stocks that are more sensitive to changes in investor sentiment and credit market conditions. Overall, the results show that investor sentiment plays a significant role in the effect of monetary policy on the stock market.     

Do locals know better? A comparison of the performance of local and foreign institutional investors

We compare the performance of local versus foreign institutional investors using a comprehensive data set of equity holdings in 32 countries during the 2000–2010 period. We find that foreign institutions perform as well as local institutions on average, but only domestic institutions show a trading pattern consistent with an information advantage. Our results suggest a smart-money effect of local institutions in countries subject to higher information asymmetry, non-English speaking countries, countries with less efficient stock markets, with poor investor protection, or high levels of corruption. The local advantage is more pronounced in periods of market turmoil and in illiquid stocks.     

Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns

We use mutual fund flows as a measure of individual investor sentiment for different stocks, and find that high sentiment predicts low future returns. Fund flows are dumb money–by reallocating across different mutual funds, retail investors reduce their wealth in the long run. This dumb money effect is related to the value effect: high sentiment stocks tend to be growth stocks. High sentiment also is associated with high corporate issuance, interpretable as companies increasing the supply of shares in response to investor demand.     

Does Investor Sentiment Affect Earnings Management?

I hypothesize and find that earnings management via accruals is driven partially by the prevailing market‐wide investor sentiment. Managers inflate earnings in periods of higher sentiment, but report more conservatively during periods of low sentiment. Moreover, the likelihood of income‐increasing earnings management to avoid negative earnings surprises is also positively associated with investor sentiment. These results are robust to: (i) controls for time‐varying firm characteristics such as growth, investment opportunity sets, future profitability, leverage and size; (ii) macroeconomic variables such as future inflation, GDP growth, and growth in industrial production; (iii) multiple proxies for investor sentiment; and (iv) discretionary revenues as alternative measure of earnings management. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that firms whose stock returns co‐move more with investor sentiment are more (less) likely to manage earnings upward via abnormal accruals in quarters of higher (lower) sentiment. The findings of managers’ strategic use of abnormal accruals show the need for increased attention from boards of directors, auditors and regulators to heightened managerial incentives to overstate earnings and to report optimistic earnings numbers during periods of high investor sentiment.     

Institutional investors: Arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make a profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.     

Investor sentiment,SEO market timing,and stock price performance

This article details an investigation of the impact of investor sentiment on the probability of firms conducting seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and on stock price performance around and subsequent to SEOs. The results show that investor sentiment has a positive impact on SEO probability and that this impact is stronger for small and young firms. Furthermore, firms conducting SEOs during high sentiment periods experience less severe short-run price drops around the issuance yet more severe post-issue long-run underperformance, compared with firms conducting SEOs during low sentiment periods. These effects of investor sentiment on stock price performance are stronger for small, young, and high market-to-book ratio firms.     

Investor attention,information acquisition,and value premium: A mispricing perspective

This paper investigates the impact of investor attention on the dynamics of the value premium. We find superior return differences to value-growth strategy conditioned as low degree of investor attention. In contrast, return differences to the value-growth strategy conditioned as high investor attention are indifferent from zero. We show that return differences to low degree of investor attention across value and growth firms are attributed to mispricing explanation using common risk factors, mispricing factors, sentiment analysis, multivariate analysis, and market expectation errors approach. The findings suggest that investor attention contributes to generating superior return differences to standard value-growth strategy. Our finding concludes that long-short investment strategy in value stocks and growth stocks conditioned as low investor attention generate superior value premium.     

Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability of the Option to Stock Volume Ratio

We study the effect of investor sentiment on the relation between the option to stock volume ratio (O/S) and future stock returns. Relative option volume has return predictability under short sale constraints. For this reason, we expect and find a stronger O/S‐return relation during high sentiment periods than during low sentiment periods. We find that Baker and Wurgler's Investor Sentiment Index affects the O/S‐return relation after controlling for consumer sentiment indices and economic environment factors. While prior studies have used consumer sentiment indices as alternative measures of investor sentiment, our results suggest these effects are distinct.     

Does favorable investor sentiment lead to costly decisions to go public?

We investigate the real effects of decisions to undertake an initial public offering of stock in periods of favorable investor sentiment. Specifically, we examine potential effects of favorable investor sentiment on investment expenditures and how effects on investment affect firm operating performance and value as well as the likelihood of survival. We find that firms going public during periods of favorable sentiment, on average, spend substantially more on investments, especially acquisitions, than firms going public in other periods. The effect of favorable investor sentiment on investment is more pronounced for younger firms. We do not find, however, that the higher investment spending in the wake of favorable sentiment leads to worse operating or stock performance. Stock returns around acquisitions announcements are also positive for firms going public in favorable sentiment periods. The preponderance of our findings indicate that decisions to go public in favorable investor sentiment periods do not lead to corporate investment decisions that harm firm performance and value.     

MAX momentum in cryptocurrency markets

This paper studies the MAX effect, the relationship between maximum daily returns and future returns in the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market is an ideal setting for the MAX effect due to its lottery-like features (i.e., large positive skewness). Contrary to findings in other markets, we demonstrate that cryptocurrencies with higher maximum daily returns tend to achieve higher returns in the future and call this the “MAX momentum” effect. We also find that the magnitude of the MAX momentum effect varies with market conditions, investor sentiment and the underpricing of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, this effect is robust to longer holding periods, different MAX measures and alternative sample selection criteria.     

Institutional trading and information processing: Evidence from complicated firms and easy-to-analyze firms

In this article, I examine institutional trading within two groups of firms with different demands on investor information processing: conglomerate firms and stand-alone firms. On average, institutional trading in conglomerate firm stocks yields significantly lower returns than institutional trading in stand-alone firm stocks. Inferior returns following institutional trading in conglomerate firm stocks persist across small and large firms. Moreover, financial institutions with a low concentration of conglomerate firms in their portfolios are more profitable in their trading. This study provides evidence that skilled institutional investors intentionally focus their information-processing efforts on easy-to-analyze firms.     

Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Value Relevance of Accounting Information?

We investigate whether investor sentiment affects the relationships between accounting variables and contemporaneous stock returns. Using price-relevant accounting variables identified by Chen and Zhang (2007) and the investor sentiment index constructed by Baker and Wurgler (2006), we find that the value relevance of accounting variables is collectively lower in high sentiment periods than in low sentiment periods. More importantly, earnings yield appears to be more related to contemporaneous stock returns in high sentiment periods, while other accounting variables are more related to stock returns in low sentiment periods. The effect of investor sentiment on the value relevance of accounting information is stronger for firms that are more difficult to value and to arbitrage.     

How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Stock Market Crises? Evidence from Panel Data

We test the impact of investor sentiment on a panel of international stock markets. Specifically, we examine the influence of investor sentiment on the probability of stock market crises. We find that investor sentiment increases the probability of occurrence of stock market crises within a one‐year horizon. The impact of investor sentiment on stock markets is more pronounced in countries that are culturally more prone to herd‐like behavior, overreaction and low institutional involvement.     

Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentimentand the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measureof investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumerconfidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment.After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study thetime-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Overthe last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumerconfidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stockswith low institutional ownership in a manner consistent withthe predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentimentdoes not appear to forecast time-series variation in the valueand momentum premiums. (JEL G10, G12, G14)     

Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements

Using a database of more than 1.85 million retail investor transactions over 1991–1996, we show that these trades are systematically correlated—that is, individuals buy (or sell) stocks in concert. Moreover, consistent with noise trader models, we find that systematic retail trading explains return comovements for stocks with high retail concentration (i.e., small‐cap, value, lower institutional ownership, and lower‐priced stocks), especially if these stocks are also costly to arbitrage. Macroeconomic news and analyst earnings forecast revisions do not explain these results. Collectively, our findings support a role for investor sentiment in the formation of returns.