High-speed rail transport valuation and conjecture shocks

In this paper, we derive the optimal investment policy in a high-speed rail transport (HSR) project. We assume that the source of uncertainty comes from the annual demand, and that it follows a geometric Brownian motion with jumps of random magnitude, occurring in random times, according to a Poisson process. We assess the impact of these shocks on the demand threshold, along with the investment opportunity value and option to differ. We consider several distributions for these jumps, and we compare with the no-jumps case. Numerical results are presented, showing the importance of assumptions about the underlying stochastic process.     

Real Options: Experimental Evidence

Empirical testing of the real options theory has been very limited. This is primarily due to various inherent problems with obtaining field data for many components of real options theory. This paper utilizes experimental methodology to generate the data. The advantage of the experimental approach is that it enables the investigator to generate reliable and replicable data in a controlled environment. The results of the experiment indicate that fundamental insights of real options theory are not evident to individual investors. The majority invested too early and thus failed to recognize the benefit of the option to wait. However, when the investors had to compete with others for the right to invest, their bids generally reflected the value of the embedded option. Furthermore, as predicted by the theory, their bids increased with greater uncertainty about future cash flows from the investment.     

Optimal investment and production decisions and the value of the firm

We explore the effects of uncertainty on a firm that can respond by modifying its investment or production schedule (or both simultaneously) to variations in output price. Investment may increase capacity and/or reduce costs. We consider a firm with finite resources.Our model uses option theory instead of the more traditional net present value framework. One of the early papers using this approach is Brennan and Schwartz (1985) in which an investment project to extract a finite natural resource is valued. In that paper, the value of the firm is a function of two state variables, the finite resource to be extracted (output to be produced in the future) and the commodity spot price. In order to maximize firm value, the manager can respond by modifying one control variable, the production level. In our model we handle instead three state variables (spot price, resources, accumulated investment) and two control variables (production rate and investment rate), and solve numerically.We obtain both the value and the optimal policy of a firm that has investment projects that increase capacity and/or reduce costs and illustrate optimal policies as resources and available investments decrease over the life of the firm. Firms may start by only investing, then invest and produce, to end only producing.We thank Scott Wo, the referee and the editor for their comments and suggestions. Cortázar and Lowener acknowledge the financial support from FONDECYT and FONDER.     

Real option pricing with mean-reverting investment and project value

In this work, we are concerned with valuing the option to invest in a project when the project value and the investment cost are both mean-reverting. Previous works on stochastic project and investment cost concentrate on geometric Brownian motions (GBMs) for driving the factors. However, when the project involved is linked to commodities, mean-reverting assumptions are more meaningful. Here, we introduce a model and prove that the optimal exercise strategy is not a function of the ratio of the project value to the investment V/I – contrary to the GBM case. We also demonstrate that the limiting trigger curve as maturity approaches traces out a nonlinear curve in (V, I) space and derive its explicit form. Finally, we numerically investigate the finite-horizon problem, using the Fourier space time-stepping algorithm of Jaimungal and Surkov [2009. Lev´y based cross-commodity models and derivative valuation. SIAM Journal of Financial Mathematics, to appear. http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=972837]. Numerically, the optimal exercise policies are found to be approximately linear in V/I; however, contrary to the GBM case they are not described by a curve of the form V*/I*=c(t). The option price behavior as well as the trigger curve behavior nicely generalize earlier one-factor model results.     

Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets

We examine how cross-firm and cross-country heterogeneity shapes the responses of corporate investment in emerging markets to changes in U.S. monetary policy and financial-market volatility, the latter proxying for uncertainty. We find that in response to increases in U.S monetary policy rates or financial-market volatility, financially weaker firms reduce investment by more than financially strong firms. We also show that firms with stronger balance sheets delay investment voluntarily when faced with higher uncertainty. Finally, we find that stronger macroeconomic fundamentals (lower public debt or higher international reserves) help to buffer corporate investment from increases in U.S. monetary policy rates.     

Organisational change and performance in long-lived small firms: a real options approach

This paper supports two key principles of real options reasoning: (a) the value of waiting and (b) the value of staging. It tests whether real options logic applies to small firms implementing significant changes (e.g. in technology) in a model of small firm performance, estimated on data collected by interviews with entrepreneurs. We found that to achieve a higher value by waiting, a delicate balance of precipitators of change against time until exercise is necessary (e.g. if there were just one or two precipitators, then waiting would certainly raise the value). Similarly, to achieve a higher value by staging, the entrepreneur needs to balance embedding against investment time. Thus, provided that investment time is less than 1¼ years, we found that embedding will raise the value. Overall, this implies that strategic flexibility in investment decisions is necessary for good long-run performance of small firms.     

Real Options, (Dis)Investment Decision-Making and Accounting Measures of Performance

This paper suggests that a residual income-type measure of performance can be designed which supports optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework involving the options to wait before investing and to abandon. The measure has a number of advantages and disadvantages. Nonetheless, the balance of advantage versus disadvantage for the proposed measure must be set against the inadequacies of other competing measures of performance and associated organisational designs. Even if the measure of performance suggested is not regarded as practically useful, it has another general advantage – it can be used as a benchmark against which to evaluate other performance measures with regard to their support of optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework.     

Real Options, (Dis)Investment Decision-Making and Accounting Measures of Performance

This paper suggests that a residual income-type measure of performance can be designed which supports optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework involving the options to wait before investing and to abandon. The measure has a number of advantages and disadvantages. Nonetheless, the balance of advantage versus disadvantage for the proposed measure must be set against the inadequacies of other competing measures of performance and associated organisational designs. Even if the measure of performance suggested is not regarded as practically useful, it has another general advantage – it can be used as a benchmark against which to evaluate other performance measures with regard to their support of optimal investment and disinvestment decision-making in a real options framework.     

Evaluación de la conversión a café orgánico usando la metodología de opciones reales

Since the deregulation of the coffee market in 1989, price crises are proof of the uncertainty and risk around coffee growers’ income, particularly for small producers who, in the case of Mexico, have taken action such as the conversion of their traditional crops into the organic production system which, besides the ecological priority, allows them to get a higher income than from conventional coffee. In this document we model as real investment options (RIO) the possibility of conversion from one system into the other one also including the feasibility of abandoning this strategic decision.     

Multiple State Property Options

Before taking strategic actions in property investments, consider the type and number of expansion, contraction and suspension alternatives and the future profit volatility. The optimal investment strategy for a current or prospective property owner should reflect the expected variability of future profits (rent times occupancy times units available), and current profits relative to threshold trigger profits for a variety of alternative states and actions. These alternatives include remaining idle, building and operating properties, expanding, contracting, suspending, reverting to normal service or reduced service capacity, or abandoning. A valuation model is developed for up to eight different options, each with a distinct trigger. Then numerical solutions show optimal profit triggers and valuations for each of these real options. Generally, increasing the number of options reduces the investment and abandonment triggers, and increases the values of the investment option and total option values, given these alternatives and parameters. The relevant parameters will depend on the investment context and feasible actions, but generally include interest rates, profit volatility, and irrecoverable costs of investment, expansion, contracting, suspension and abandonment. Generally increases in investment costs reduce the value of upward options, and increases the optimal triggers for exercising those options. Increases in expected profit volatility increase the value of all options, increases investment triggers and decreases abandonment triggers. These generic models may be appropriate for many contexts where the costs of changing states are partially irrecoverable, yet where management has some flexibility to alter scale, quality and pricing of assets and services.     

Options with Constant Underlying Elasticity in Strikes

Closed-form solutions are derived and interpreted for European options, with stochastic strike prices, that maintain constant elasticity of the strike with respect to the price of the underlying asset. We refer to such options as CUES. CUES preserve the relative shares of exercise price risk for both the buyer and writer of the option, regardless of whether the price of the underlying asset moves up or down. The relevance of the CUES concept is established through applications in two distinct fields. First, it is established that CUES-like options are embedded in private equity investments. This concept is then used in a novel application to determine the equity share of a private company corresponding to a given level of investment. Secondly, the advantages that CUES would provide over traditional executive stock option grants are considered and it is shown that CUES can provide enhanced incentive-alignment without increasing options expense to the company. JEL Classification: G130     

Pricing Upward-Only Adjusting Leases

This paper presents a stochastic pricing model of a unique, path-dependent lease instrument common in the United Kingdom and numerous commonwealth countries, the upward-only adjusting lease. In this lease, the rental rate is fixed at lease commencement but will be reset to the market rate at predetermined intervals (usually every five years) if it exceeds the contract rent. We derive a closed form expression for the market rent of a lease with upward-only adjustments. Results indicate what the initial coupon rate on a 10-year lease with one reset should be relative to that on a symmetric up-and-downward adjusting variable rate lease under various economic conditions (level of real interest rates and expected drift and volatility of the underlying rental service flow). We also consider the calculation of effective rents when free rent periods are given.     

Forced Development and Urban Land Prices

This paper examines the distortions in property markets resulting from government actions to alleviate externalities associated with vacant lots. Using an equilibrium based real option model, the analysis indicates that announcement of a program of forced development may actually delay market-based development. By incorporating externalities associated with vacant lots into the model, the analysis indicates that owners of neighboring developed property benefit suggesting such programs will be politically popular.