Stock Return Volatility and Dividend Announcements

This paper is based on models presented in Kim and Verrecchia (1991a, 1991b) relating to share price volatility and the quality of announcements. It investigates the differences in informational quality between dividend cuts and dividend rises, and between interim and final dividend announcements. The results indicate that when dividends are cut, the interim announcement is perceived as being more significant than the final, whereas the reverse is true when dividends are increased. Implied standard deviations suggest that volatility is expected to peak on the day of final announcements. A peak is also expected after interim announcements of a cut in dividend, but not after announcements of an increase.     

Signalling power of special dividends in an imputation environment

The present study examines the impact of the announcement of special dividends for a sample of Australian companies over the period July 1989 to June 2002. The risk‐adjusted price reaction to special dividend announcements from the day before the announcement to the day after the announcement (day ?1 to day 1) is positive and statistically significant, averaging 3.67 per cent. Initial special dividend announcements (4.68 per cent) led to stronger price reaction than special dividend announcements that follow an earlier special dividend (1.51 per cent) in the previous year. The magnitude of price reactions to special dividend announcements is statistically related to the size of the special dividend, the existence of prior special dividend announcements, abnormal cash flow for the year ended after the special dividend announcement, the existence of dividend reinvestment plans (DRP) versus non‐DRP, and a preannouncement effect. Finally, we found strong support for the information content/signalling hypothesis for special dividend announcements that do not participate in DRP and limited support for those associated with DRP.     

Dividend reductions,the timing of dividend payments and information content

Australian companies pay dividends semi-annually with smaller “interim” payments and larger “final” payments. Interim dividends are declared and paid within a less full information environment than final dividends. We analyze the interactions between the timing of dividends and their information content, controlling for share repurchase and tax effects. Dividend reductions that are not associated with share repurchases are statistically significantly related to future abnormal earnings and provide strong support for the information content of dividend reductions. The percentage of dividend reduction is stronger for interim than for final dividend reductions. The market reaction is negatively related to the reduction in imputation tax credit and reacts more aggressively and negatively to interim as compared to final dividend reductions.     

Interim dividend cuts and omissions in the UK

UK firms that cut or omit interim dividends during the period 1986–1993 are studied. Price reactions to cuts and omissions were found to be significantly negative and stronger for initial reductions. Future earnings variables were found to be predictable from interim dividend reductions. Gearing, company size and interim earnings change variables were found to have explanatory power for the decision to determine whether to cut or omit an interim dividend.     

The Information Content of Dividend Surprises: Evidence from Germany

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst consensus forecast as obtained from I/B/E/S as a proxy for the surprise in the dividend announcement. Using data from Germany, we find significant share price reactions after dividend announcements. We use panel methods to analyze the determinants of the share price reactions and find evidence in favour of the cash flow signaling hypothesis and dividend clientele effects. We further find that the price reaction to dividend surprises is related to the ownership structure of the firm. The results do not support the free cash flow hypothesis. An additional result of our analysis is that dividend changes are not an appropriate measure to capture the information content of dividend announcements.     

Contagion Effects of Dividend Reduction or Omission Announcements in the Electric Utility Industry

This study examines the contagion effects of dividend reduction or omission announcements in the electric utility industry. Using a series of ten electric utility dividend announcements covering the period 1979–1991, I analyze differences in contagion reactions across utilities. I find the strength of the contagion reaction is significantly related to utility size, average dividend yield, debt ratio, market‐to‐book ratio, cash flow, and Altman's Z‐score. There is also evidence of a flight to quality, including a preference for utilities operating in more favorable regulatory environments.     

AN EXAMINATION OF MARKET REACTION TO SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS IN DIVIDEND POLICY

This study provides further empirical evidence on the informational content of dividends hypothesis. To reduce the misclassification of unfavorable and favorable dividend announcements, which can result when small dividend changes are included, the analysis is restricted to cases where a substantial shift in dividend policy has occurred. Specifically, the authors examine the aggregate market response to announcements of (1) omitted dividends, (2) dividend decreases of at least 25 percent, (3) dividend increases of at least 25 percent, and (4) initial dividend payments. The results indicate that announcements of dividend omissions and large decreases have a pronounced downward impact on stock prices even though the market has anticipated the forthcoming news to a large degree. Similarly, the market reaction to initial dividend declarations is found to be substantial and much greater than previously found for favorable dividend classifications in general.     

The information content of cash dividend announcements in a unique environment

Due to its distinctive institutional background, Oman offers a valuable opportunity to examine stock price reactions to dividend announcements. In Oman, (1) there are no taxes on dividends and capital gains, (2) there is a high concentration of share ownership, (3) there is low corporate transparency, and (4) firms frequently change their dividends. Our results show that announcements of dividend increases are associated with increased stock prices, while announcements of dividend decreases cause decreases in stock prices. Firms that do not change their dividends experience insignificant negative returns. These results contradict tax-based signaling models, which argue that higher taxes on dividends relative to capital gains are a necessary condition for dividends to be informative.     

Signaling, investment opportunities, and dividend announcements

This article examines potential explanations for the wealtheffects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find thatnew information concerning managers' investment policies isnot revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We alsofind that dividend increases (decreases) are associated withsubsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expendituresover the three years following the dividend change, and thatdividend change announcements are associated with revisionsin analysts' forecasts of current earnings. These results areconsistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather thanthe free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observedstock price reactions to dividend change announcements.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SHAREHOLDER REACTION TO DIVIDEND CUTS AND OMISSIONS

In this paper the proposition is tested that stock market reaction to a dividend change is a function of its information content. A multiple regression model is formulated to identify the factors that contribute significantly to the capital loss suffered by shareholders when firms decide to cut/omit dividends. Results indicate that, in conformity with the information content hypothesis, the announcement period capital loss induced by a dividend deduction significantly depends on the percentage change in dividends, the size and risk of the firm, and the price performance of the firm's stock in the immediately preceding period. The results further reveal that (1) simultaneous announcements of poor earnings cause larger capital losses; (2) prior announcements of loss/lower earnings, strikes, etc. attenuate the negative impact of dividend cuts; (3) managerial reassurances that the dividend reduction is growth-motivated produces a weakly favorable effect, and (4) institution of stock dividends concurrently with the dividend cut significantly reduces the negative valuation effect. It is concluded from the evidence that stock market reaction to managerial signals is a function of the perceived costs associated with these signals.     

Information Asymmetry and the Dealer's Bid-Ask Spread: A Case Study of Earnings and Dividend Announcements

Recent theoretical work on the bid-ask spread asserts that the dealer should widen the bid-ask spread when he or she suspects that the information advantage possessed by informed traders has increased. Thus, the dealer's spread can be employed to test for an increase in information asymmetry prior to an anticipated information event. In this paper, the method is applied to earnings and dividend announcements, which have been documented to be information events. The authors study three groups of announcements: (a) joint announcements—i.e., earnings and dividend announcements that are made on the same day, (b) initial (first) announcements—earnings or dividend announcements that were not preceded by another announcement in the prior thirty days, and (c) following (second) announcements—those announcements that follow the first announcement by at least ten days but by no more than thirty days. The authors find a strong increase in information asymmetry only before the second announcements and virtually no increase before the joint and first announcements. This is consistent with the hypothesis that there is, on average, normal information asymmetry before announcements, but that the dealer will suspect a nonroutine announcement (with an attendant increase in information asymmetry) when the second announcement is separated from the first by more than ten days. Other possible explanations for the results are discussed, and suggestions for future research are outlined.     

A Test of the Relative Pricing Effects of Dividends and Earnings: Evidence from Simultaneous Announcements in Japan

We study the pricing effects of dividend and earnings announcements by taking advantage of the unique setting in Japan where managers simultaneously announce the current year's dividends and earnings as well as forecasts of next year's dividends and earnings. Defining surprises as deviations from analysts' forecasts, we find that share price reactions are significantly affected by earnings surprises, especially management forecasts of next year's earnings. The information content of dividends is marginal and is restricted to announcements of next year's dividends. Consistent with Modigliani and Miller's dividend irrelevance proposition, current dividend surprises have no material impact on stock prices in Japan.     

The intraday speed of adjustment of stock prices to earnings and dividend announcements

This paper examines the effects of Broad Tape news releases of earnings and dividend announcements on three aspects of intraday stock price behavior: mean returns, return variance, and serial correlation in consecutive price changes. The initial price reaction is evident in the first pair of price changes following the release (i.e., within a few minutes, at most). The returns earned by simple trading rules dissipate within five to ten minutes, although significant returns are detected in the overnight period and at the opening of trading on the next day. Disturbances in the variance and serial correlation persist for several hours and extend into the following trading day. As a class, dividend announcements induce much less activity than do earnings, although the response to dividend changes is comparable to the earnings announcement effect.     

STOCK DIVIDENDS AS SIGNALS

This study analyzes stock dividends as signals from managers. It is argued that in the presence of information asymmetries between managers and investors, stock dividends provide a relatively inexpensive and unambiguous signalling device. Based on an examination of the daily returns around 317 stock dividend announcements, it is concluded that these announcements are interpreted by investors as signals from managers. Further analysis also indicates that stock dividend size is positively related to announcement day returns.     

Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements

This paper investigates the information content of options trading prior to dividend change announcements. I find a positive (negative) relation between pre‐announcement abnormal implied volatility (IV) spread (abnormal IV skew) and cumulative abnormal stock returns around dividend change announcements. The predictive power of informed options trading is stronger for announcements of dividend reduction and when the options market is more liquid relative to the stock market and weaker when information has already been incorporated in the stock market. The predictability of informed options trading is robust to a placebo test and alternative measures of informed options trading. Overall results suggest that informed options trading predicts dividend change announcement returns.     

Are Certain Dividend Increases Predictable? The Effect of Repeated Dividend Increases on Market Returns

The authors report the findings of their study of over 400 stocks of public companies that announced at least 20 consecutive increases in their dividends during the period 1999 and 2009. With the assumption that the stock market learns to anticipate future dividend increases from current patterns, the study was designed to answer the question: How many increases does it take for the market to anticipate, and “price in,” the pattern of dividend increases? The authors report finding that abnormal returns around the first and second announcements of dividend increases are significant and positive, but are much less significant for the third and further increases. They also find that the size of the dividend increases tends to fall with more increases, and that the largest percentage dividend changes occur early in the sequence.     

When are dividend increases bad for corporate bonds?

Employing an event study approach, we examine 5,574 bond return reactions to unexpected quarterly dividend change announcements in the U.S. corporate bond market over the period 2002–2014. On average, bond price reaction is in the same direction as dividend changes, which supports the hypothesis that dividend changes signal future firm performance. However, the price reaction varies significantly in the spectrum of bond's risk. Importantly, we document that some bondholders react negatively to unexpected dividend increases, indicating a wealth transfer effect. Such wealth transfer effect is most likely to occur in very high risk bond approaching maturity issued by firms with a low level of cash and incorporated outside Delaware.     

Short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend days

We examine short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend dates. Contrary to our initial expectation, we do not find abnormally high short-selling activity prior to announced dividend decreases, which runs counter to the argument that short sellers have the ability to acquire private information before its public dissemination. However, we find that the common negative relation between current short selling and future daily returns prior to unfavorable dividend announcements is similar to the negative relation during non-event times, suggesting that dividend announcements do not provide unusual trading opportunities for informed traders (Gonedes, 1978, and Benartzi et al., 1997). Around ex-dividend dates, we do find abnormal short selling, which may be explained by the return pattern around ex-dividend days documented by Lakonishok and Vermaelen (1986), who suggest that demand for a particular stock by dividend capture traders drives stock prices above their fundamental value thus providing a profitable trading opportunity for short sellers. Consistent with this conjecture, we find that both the level of short selling and the return predictability of short selling is markedly higher on and after the ex-dividend day than during non-event times.     

DIVIDEND CHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS AND EARNINGS VOLATILITY AND TIMING

Recent modeling using the asymmetric information framework suggests that the magnitude of a market response to dividend change announcements should be related to the timing of the dividend announcement vis-a-vis the earnings release and to the stability of those earnings. The announcement effects of regular quarterly dividend changes are tested and these effects are related to the percentage change in the dividend yield, to the stability of the firm's earnings, to the timing of dividend and earnings announcements, and to the level of earnings compared with prior quarters. Analysis indicates that significant relationships exist between the announcement effect and changes in the dividend yield, and whether the dividend change is positive or negative. Only weak evidence exists that dividend announcement effects are larger when current earnings are unknown.     

Dividend Surprises Inferred from Option and Stock Prices

This paper introduces a new method to measure the unexpected component of dividend announcements. While measures used previously were based on various arbitrary models of dividend expectations, our suggested method compares the reaction of stock and option prices to dividend announcements. Our measure is compared to commonly used model-based measures, to a Box-Jenkins time-series-based measure, and to a Value-Line Investor Survey-based measure of dividend surprises. The new measure is more highly correlated with the market's reaction to the announcements than are alternative measures of dividend surprises. The new measure is also shown to be insensitive to the extent to which the options used to identify unexpected dividend announcements are in- or out-of-the-money.