企业的经营决策影响应计吗?——基于企业生命周期的研究

企业是一个不断演进的实体,而演进的路径和速度决定于内部因素和外部因素,尤其是企业的经营决策,在不同的阶段有明显的差别。现有研究忽略了企业经营决策对于应计行为的重要影响,本文的结果表明,经营决策的变化和经营的结果直接决定了应计的演进,企业生命周期对于应计的决定具有重要作用。与此同时,在中国的上市公司中,处于不同生命周期的企业,其财务和会计特征都呈现出系统的、有规律的变化。本文的研究结果也表明基于现金流组合特征的生命周期代理变量,能够合理区分中国上市公司所处的不同发展阶段,具有简洁、实用、适合于大样本研究的特点。     

会计师事务所规模与其审计质量的关系——基于新三板企业的研究

本文基于2011至2013年新三板企业的财务数据和其对会计师事务所的选择情况进行了分析,研究会计师事务所的规模与其审计质量是否存在正相关关系。文章将会计师事务所分成国内十大和非十大两类,根据修正琼斯模型计算企业年度操纵性应计值作为审计质量的替代变量。通过描述性统计和回归分析,发现大规模事务所对应企业的操纵性应计值更低,说明大所对企业盈余管理的考察能力和抑制能力更强,进而说明其审计专业程度更高,审计质量更好。     

管理层权力、盈余管理与股市流动性——基于企业生命周期的视角

以我国沪深两市 A股数据,检验了企业处于生命周期的不同阶段,管理层权力对应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的影响。研究结果发现：企业生命周期会影响管理层权力对盈余管理方式的选择。管理层权力较高的上市公司在做出盈余管理策略时,会选择在企业成长期进行应计盈余管理,而选择在成长期、成熟期和衰退期进行真实活动盈余管理。进一步研究发现：权力高管在实施应计盈余管理后提高了股票交易活跃度,而在实施真实盈余管理活动后降低了股票交易活跃度。     

CEO职业关注与企业会计信息披露质量

依据2001-2019年沪深两市A股上市公司数据,以C EO年龄水平作为职业关注水平的代理变量,考量CEO职业关注对企业会计信息披露质量的影响.结果表明:CEO职业关注降低了企业的会计信息披露质量,CEO职业关注水平较高时,企业盈余管理倾向更强,应计质量更差,发生盈余粉饰的可能性更高.进一步分析发现,企业正向盈余管理倾向是C EO职业关注影响会计信息披露质量的渠道,职业关注与会计信息披露质量的关系受到财务业绩压力的干扰.     

大股东掏空与盈余管理关系研究——基于掏空效应引入盈余管理模型视角

大股东与中小股东的利益冲突是现代企业发展过程中广泛存在的重要问题。本文基于委托代理问题与大股东掏空路径,选取2012－2019年A股上市公司数据,将大股东掏空效应引入Kothari et al.（2005）修正的Jones模型,计算应计盈余时剔除关联交易行为与资金占用的影响,比较剔除前后可操纵利润的差异,对大股东掏空与盈余管理的关系进行实证研究。鉴于大股东掏空本身对盈余管理模型计算有影响,本文的做法可以形象反映掏空对盈余管理的影响路径,即大股东通过实现关联交易和资金占用,导致可操纵应计利润减少,企业会通过其他手段进行盈余管理。另外,还考虑不同产权性质的影响,结果发现国企相对于非国企来说,以掩盖大股东掏空为动机进行应计盈余管理的动机更强。     

我国上市公司现金股利分配实证研究——基于企业生命周期理论

本文以2003-2010年深市A股上市公司为样本,用留存收益权益比RE/TE作为企业生命周期的特征变量,并通过Logit模型检验了RE/TE与其他控制变量对上市公司分配现金股利倾向的影响。实证结果表明,我国上市公司是否支付现金股利的行为符合生命周期理论。本文最后建议证监会可要求企业采用与生命周期相挂钩的现金分红政策,并加强上市公司股利分配的信息披露。     

盈余管理对企业融资约束的影响研究

本文基于信息不对称、委托代理及预算软约束理论,以2011-2014年的沪深A股上市公司为样本,检验企业盈余管理对融资约束的影响.研究表明:应计盈余管理加剧了企业的融资约束状况,但是外部投资者没能有效识别真实盈余管理,其反而缓解了企业的融资约束状况;国有企业弱化了盈余管理对融资约束的影响;在竞争激烈的行业中,应计盈余管理对融资约束的加剧作用表现更强,而真实盈余管理对融资约束的缓解作用被削弱.     

盈余管理与审计质量的关系研究——基于2008-2010年我国证券市场数据的实证分析

学术界普遍认为,审计不仅能够查出企业的错报,还能识别并遏制企业的盈余管理行为。为了检验审计质量对中国上市公司盈余管理的影响,本文利用2008-2010年中国A股上市公司的经验数据,用行业专长和事务所规模和品牌作为审计质量的代理变量,用分行业分年度修正的琼斯模型计算出的操纵性应计项目作为盈余管理的衡量指标,对审计质量和盈余管理的关系进行了实证检验,总体而言,审计质量越高,盈余管理程度越低,审计质量越低,盈余管理程度越高。特别是2008年的数据,显著的支持了研究结论。但是,2009-2010年的经验证据并不能充分支持盈余管理与审计质量的关系,这可能与我国特定的审计市场不是充分竞争的市场、我国的注册会计师不够完全独立有一定的关系。     

管理者行为、企业生命周期与非效率投资

本文从企业生命周期视角研究管理者代理行为和管理者过度自信对企业非效率投资的动态影响。选取2012-2015年深沪主板上市公司数据进行实证检验,结果表明:随着企业生命周期的发展,管理者代理行为逐渐加强,管理者过度自信水平却逐渐减弱。管理者代理行为和过度自信共同导致企业非效率投资,成长期阶段的企业非效率投资主要受管理者过度自信的显著影响,管理者代理行为对企业非效率投资影响不显著;成熟期阶段的企业非效率投资既受管理者代理行为的显著影响,也受管理者过度自信的显著影响;衰退期阶段的企业非效率投资则主要受管理者代理行为的显著影响,管理者过度自信对企业非效率投资影响不显著。     

基于因子增广型向量自回归模型的货币政策效应分析

经济转轨背景下,仅以某一单个指标作为货币政策的代理变量无法完整捕捉我国货币政策态势,货币政策效应估计存在误差。基于此,论文采用2005年1月—2014年6月相关变量（31个产出相关变量、4个物价相关变量、5个货币政策工具变量）,利用动态因子模型分别构建产出因子、通货膨胀因子、货币政策因子,据此估计由三因子组成的FAVAR模型,实证分析我国货币政策效应。结果表明：现有以单一指标为货币政策代理变量的研究低估了货币政策的真实效应。更为重要的是,以货币政策因子为政策变量的FAVAR模型避免了“价格之谜”现象。     

Do Accruals Drive Firm‐Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis

This paper extends the variance decomposition framework of Campbell [1991], Campbell and Ammer [1993], and Vuolteenaho [2002] to address the relative value relevance of accrual news, cash flow news, and expected-return news in driving firm-level equity returns. The extension is based on the Feltham-Ohlson [1995, 1996] clean surplus relations. Using three models, this study shows that all three factors, accruals, cash flows, and expected future discount rates are value relevant. Moreover, accrual news is found to significantly dominate expected-return news in driving firm-level stock returns. Operating income news is also found to significantly dominate both expected-return news and free cash flow news in driving firm-level stock returns. Furthermore, after splitting net income into cash flow and accrual earnings components in the Vuolteenaho model, accrual earnings news and cash flow earnings news are found to equally drive firm-level stock returns and to dominate expected-return news. Further disaggregation of the data yields some evidence that accrual earnings news is a more important factor than cash flow earnings news in driving current stock returns. Overall, the three models indicate that changes in expected future accruals are a primary driver, if not the primary driver, of current stock returns.     

The Accrual Effect on Future Earnings

Earnings manipulation has become a widespread practice for US corporations. However, most studies in the literature focus on whether certain incentives would facilitate managers to manipulate earnings and there has been little evidence documenting the consequences of earnings manipulation. This paper fills this gap by examining how current accruals affect future earnings (the accrual effect) and measuring the size of this effect. We find that the aggregate future earnings will decrease by $0.046 and $0.096, respectively, in the next one and three years for a $1 increase of current accruals. Over the very long-term (25 years), 20% of current accruals will reverse. This negative accrual effect is more significant for firms with high price-earnings ratios, high market-to-book ratios and high accruals where earnings management is more likely to occur. We show that incorporating the accrual effect is useful in improving the accuracy of earnings forecasts for these firms. Accordingly, the empirical results are consistent with the notion that earnings management causes the negative relationship between current accruals and future earnings. In addition, this paper shows that one recently developed accrual model has better performance than the popularly cited model in identifying manipulated earnings.     

Detecting Earnings Management: A New Approach

This paper provides a new approach to test for accrual‐based earnings management. Our approach exploits the inherent property of accrual accounting that any accrual‐based earnings management in one period must reverse in another period. If the researcher has priors concerning the timing of the reversal, incorporating these priors can significantly improve the power and specification of tests for earnings management. Our results indicate that tests incorporating reversals increase test power by around 40% and provide a robust solution for mitigating model misspecification arising from correlated omitted variables.     

The usefulness of operating cash flow and accrual components in improving the predictive ability of earnings: a re‐examination and extension

We examine whether the components of accruals and operating cash flows improve the predictive ability of earnings for forecasting future cash flows. Unlike most previous studies, we avoid data estimation errors and sample self‐selection bias because we exploit data from Australia where reporting of actual cash flow components had been mandatory since 1992. We show that accrual components and operating cash flow components together are more useful than (i) earnings, (ii) operating cash flows and total accruals and (iii) the combination of operating cash flows with accrual components in forecasting future cash flows. These results are robust to several contextual factors, including the length of the operating cash cycle, industry membership, firm profitability and firm size.     

Measuring Compliance with the Golden Rule

The golden rule of public finance is based upon the notin that intergenerational equity requires that the cost of public expenditures be spread over time in a manner that reflects the intertemporal distribution of the benefits generated by those expenditures. This is often translated into a rule that the budget be structurally balanced in accrual accounting terms. This article considers the form of accrual accounting that is most suited to the task of measuring the consistency of fiscal policy with the golden rule. It recommends a combination of the real capital maintenance approach (also known as ‘current purchasing power accounting’) and annuity depreciation. Such an approach differs from ‘current cost accounting’, which has dominated public sector models of accrual accounting in recent years. The meaning of balance-sheet measures is also considered, and it is concluded that the golden rule is more appropriately expressed as an accrual balanced budget requirement than as a requirement for the maintenance of constant net worth. JEL classification: H6, M40.     

基于行业差异的企业年金最优个人缴费率研究

借助于两期叠代模型,构建个人效用函数以及政府社会福利函数,测算满足个人生命周期效用最大化和社会福利最大化的最优企业年金个人缴费率.研究表明:全社会最优的年金个人缴费率为6.40％,当前费率水平还有较大提升空间;按各行业最优缴费率征缴年金费用,可以提高年金制度的养老保障程度;把过剩的年金缴费能力转移给个人账户,可以实现帕累托优化效果;给予年金个人缴费5％的税收优惠,可以鼓励和加快年金制度发展.     

Measuring income tax accrual quality

We develop and validate a measure of tax accrual quality. Tax accrual quality captures variation in the extent to which the income tax accrual maps into income tax-related cash flows, with lower variation indicating a higher quality tax accrual. Low tax accrual quality arises from (1) management estimation error and (2) financial reporting standards that lead to differences between income tax expense and income tax cash flows not captured by deferred tax assets and liabilities. We validate our tax accrual quality measure by showing it is associated with firm characteristics that capture both constructs and by demonstrating it predicts future tax-related restatements and internal control material weaknesses. We illustrate the importance of our measure by showing that investors view tax expense as more informative in firms with better tax accrual quality. Future researchers can use tax accrual quality to address questions related to estimation error in the income tax account.     

Analyst Earnings Forecast Revisions and the Pricing of Accruals

We investigate the relation between two market anomalies to provide insights into analysts role as information intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms with consistent accrual and forecast revision signals have less persistent accruals and earnings. We also find that accruals can be used to refine the forecast revision strategy—high accruals are associated with overoptimism in analyst forecasts. Our findings indicate that although forecast revisions reflect information about accrual and earnings persistence beyond that reflected in the level of current year accruals, investors do not fully incorporate this information into their valuation assessments.     

A cash flow cost-volume-profit model

The traditional cost-volume-profit (CVP) model assumes the accounting flows follow the accrual accounting model. No distinction is made between accrual cost flows and cash flows. This paper looks at several different cash flow break-even models.One model assumes there is no opportunity to use an accrual accounting taxable loss by other profitable product lines or through a tax loss carryback. When graphed, this model presents a “dog-leg” at the accrual accounting breakeven point. A more general model assumes that an accrual tax loss is usable. When graphed, this model presents a line parallel to the after-tax accrual-based cost line, shifted downward in the amount of the noncash fixed costs.