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1.
Predicting House Prices Using Multiple Listings Data   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
It is often necessary to accurately predict the price of a house between sales. One method of predicting house values is to use data on the characteristics of the area's housing stock to estimate a hedonic regression, using ordinary least squares (OLS) as the statistical technique. The coefficients of this regression are then used to produce the predicted house prices. However, this procedure ignores a potentially large source of information regarding house prices—the correlations existing between the prices of neighboring houses. The purpose of this article is to show how these correlations can be incorporated when estimating regression coefficients and when predicting house prices. The practical difficulties inherent in using a technique called kriging to predict house prices are discussed. The article concludes with an example of the procedure using multiple listings data from Baltimore.  相似文献   

2.
This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubins kriging model, a kriging version of Clapps local regression model, and a local application of Cases earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals.  相似文献   

3.
We examine long-run house price convergence across the twenty Paris districts using a quarterly dataset that spans from 1991 to 2014. Our approach is based on two stages. In the first stage, we apply methods of unit root testing. Our econometric modelling exercise adopts a pair wise approach that is built on a probabilistic test for convergence based on all house price differentials across the Paris districts. We find that more than 50 % of the intra-city house price differentials that can be computed are stationary. In the second stage of our investigation, we analyse the drivers of convergence. The probability of stationarity is negatively affected by unemployment differentials across districts, demographics differentials and supply-side characteristics. Our findings further reveal that the half-life of a shock to long-run price equilibrium is affected positively by unemployment, distance and housing supply. Our analysis suggests that smaller distances between Parisian districts are associated with a faster speed of adjustment back towards long-run equilibrium.  相似文献   

4.
基于房地产供需理论和宏观调控理论,依据湖南省14个市州房价与收入数据,考量区域住房支付能力的时空演变规律与相关宏观调控政策。结果表明:2008年和2020年湖南省房价收入比均值分别为0.129和0.155,均低于国际公认的0.3标准;湖南省住房支付能力空间分异明显,房价收入比呈现出明显的湘西北高、湘东南低的特征;根据房价收入比的演化特征,将湖南省14个市州划分为四种类型,不同类型的城市采取差异化的住房支付能力调控措施,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。  相似文献   

5.
摘要:廉租住房退出机制是保障低收入群体住房权益的必要手段,是廉租住房制度建设的关键环节。基于社会流动和住房梯度消费的双重动力,青岛市已建立符合本市特色的梯度退出机制,但目前仍面临着诸如政府重视程度不够、收入监测机制缺乏、规章政策层级较低、激励配套制度欠缺等退出困境,致使有限的廉租住房资源未能充分得到有“进”有“退”地动态使用。本文针对青岛市廉租住房退出机制面临的政策性和操作性困境,从政策宣传、住房征信、动态管理、制度立法、配套激励等方面提出了构建进入——退出——进入的动态管理格局的改进思路。  相似文献   

6.
张勋  寇晶涵  张欣  吕光明 《金融研究》2021,497(11):97-116
优质教育资源可能形成于学校的教育质量,也可能来源于生源质量。房地产的市场化定价机制为探讨优质教育资源的背后形成机制提供了便利。本文利用北京市二手房成交数据,采用特征价格模型和边界固定效应法,估算了学区房溢价。在此基础上,利用学校层面的教育质量信息,探讨了教育质量对学区房溢价的解释力。实证结果表明,以学校物质资本和教师人力资本所表征的教育质量是学区房溢价,即优质教育资源的主要来源,解释了总体学区房溢价的64.71%,这种解释力在考虑了潜在的内生性问题后依旧稳健。进一步通过量化北京市的三个教育强区(西城区、东城区和海淀区)中教育质量的解释力,发现优质教育资源既可形成于优质生源集聚,也可形成于教育经费投入长期累积所带来的教育质量的提升。义务教育均衡化改革,推动优质公共投入的公平供给,是平抑高企的学区房价格的有效手段。  相似文献   

7.
完善住房市场体系是国民经济中的重要议题,限购政策作为政府稳定和调节房地产市场的主要手段,对房地产企业以及住房市场体系建设均有重要影响。本文利用上市房地产企业2008—2013年以及2015—2019年的相关数据,通过构建强度双重差分模型实证分析了两轮限购对上市房地产企业价值的影响及其作用路径。实证结果表明:第一,两轮限购政策均显著降低了上市房地产企业市场价值,当企业在限购城市销售占比越大时,价值下降幅度越大;第二,从企业经营绩效来看,两轮限购对其实际盈利和营运能力并未产生显著影响,第一轮提高了企业偿债的经营风险,而第二轮只是影响了企业的资产增长能力;第三,两轮限购对房地产市场产生异质性影响,第一轮并未显著影响房价上涨,而第二轮则显著遏制了房价上涨;第四,从股票市场看,第一轮限购主要是通过企业经营风险影响投资者预期,而第二轮限购则是通过影响房价来改变投资者预期,这进一步凸显了“房住不炒”的政策作用。本文的研究意义主要体现在制定与推进政策时应关注预期的作用,这对于当前“房住不炒”政策的长期实施及其政策效果的长期稳定都具有一定启示。  相似文献   

8.
基于中国32个大中城市面板数据,拓展Matlack和Vigdor的模型,考量房价、城市规模与工资性收入差距之间的关系。结果表明:房价上涨会引起以基尼系数衡量的工资性收入差距缩小,但当城市规模处于较大水平时,房价上涨又会拉大工资性收入差距;城市规模扩大会显著缩小工资性收入差距,但当城市房价已处于较高水平时,城市规模的继续扩张则会拉大工资性收入差距。  相似文献   

9.
Historical commercial districts in city centres in Turkey face social, cultural, environmental and economical challenges of managing rapid urban and economical development in the last two decades. They are being subjected to dramatic physical deterioration and rapid social and economical decline. Enriching relationships between local tradesmen associations, local authorities and non-governmental organisations through a structured engagement process can deliver innovative new revitalisation approaches and design options towards sustainable futures of historical commercial districts both in Turkey and in the world. This paper presents a community engagement model, which can be seen as the revival of a guild system (Lonca), which is unique to Ottoman Turkish culture, for the sustainable future of a historical commercial district in a Turkish city, Bursa. One of the main objectives of this study is to discuss and evaluate successes and failures of this community engagement model. Other objective of the paper is to discuss the effectiveness of this civil organisation for creating scenarios about sustainable future of a historical commercial district. The key finding of this study shows community engagement models should support public decision making by developing a coherent framework to identify the sustainable future scenarios with multi- or interdisciplinary collaborations.  相似文献   

10.
Under the background of Chinese market segmentation, whether government-led administrative division adjustments can promote regional economic integration is a practical issue. Taking interregional firms’ stock price comovement as a micro measurement of regional integration, this paper investigates the regional integration effect of administrative division adjustments, i.e., city–county mergers. We find that stock price comovement between county-level and municipal district-level firms in the merged counties and municipal districts significantly improve after city–county mergers, particularly in regions with a higher degree of market segmentation and lower degree of marketization. We further find that the increase in stock price comovement caused by city–county mergers emerges from the increase in comovement of real activities between firms in the merged counties and municipal districts. Taken together, our results suggest that government-led administrative division adjustments effectively promote regional integration.  相似文献   

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