银行高层更替与不良贷款恶性增资——基于不良贷款拨备与剥离视角的分析

本文分析了银行处理不良贷款背后的心理动因,并以不良贷款拨备与剥离作为银行放弃对不良贷款恶性增资概率的替代指标,实证检验了银行高层的更替与其对不良贷款的处理方式有显著的相关关系.通过对2005年前股份制商业银行的面板数据分析,发现股份制商业银行高层的更替与其对不良贷款的处理方式有显著的相关关系:对银行董事长、行长的更替带来不良贷款拔备与剥离的增加,并且一定程度上可以促使银行放弃不良贷款或对贷款质量有更稳健的认识,从而降低不良贷款恶性增资产生的概率.此外,退出董事的资历影响贷款呆账准备的计提,且为正向关系.     

The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states

Rapid credit growth has been one of the most pervasive developments in recent years in Central and Eastern Europe. Our estimates support the hypothesis that the growth of credit and the amount of available finance might harm banking performance and deteriorate non-performing loans (NPL) dynamics, most probably due to the overheating of economies in the five NMSs. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth is a signal of an economy overheating and therefore a slowdown in economic activity is likely to accelerate the growth of the NPL ratio.     

Gibrat's law test on Brazilian commercial banks

In recent years, Brazil has been one of the countries with the biggest changes in the banking sector. The process of deregulation that began in 2002 has entailed the increase of the presence of foreign banking and the increase of competition, among other aspects. In this context, the objective of this study consists in contrasting Gibrat's Law in the Brazilian commercial banking during the period of 2002–2013 with the objective of contributing with evidence for the construction of a growth model for banking that will guide the financial policy of the country. For this, the quartile regression methodology is utilized, since we consider that it analyzes the relation between growth and the size of the entities more thoroughly than the empirical contrasts given by previous empirical evidence. The results obtained indicate that there is a non-linear relation in an inverted U form between growth and size in the Brazilian commercial banking. These results allow us to affirm that the relative dispersion of the sizes of the financial entities will tend to decrease in time and with this, the concentration of the sector.     

Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?

This paper investigates the bank-level and country-level factors determining nonperforming loans (NPL) in the commercial banking industry of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Specifically; it examines the impact of the sectoral distribution financing growth and Islamic finance methods growth on NPL. To do so, we apply generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques, over the 2005–2011 period. Our findings indicate that the sectoral distribution of Islamic financing has an adverse impact on NPL, which suggest that the sectoral financing growth of Islamic banks increases the credit risk exposure more than conventional banks. The findings of the Islamic finance methods growth show that the impact of fixed-income debt contracts could increase NPL more than profit-and-loss-sharing contracts.     

Turkish bank efficiency: Bayesian estimation with undesirable outputs

This paper analyzes the productivity and efficiency of Turkish banks from 2002 to 2010. We obtained estimates of efficiency, productivity growth and efficiency growth using a Bayesian stochastic frontier approach and focused on accounting for Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) for use in our model. Specifically, we introduce NPLs as a bad output in an input distance function, and estimate a system of non-linear equations subject to endogeneity. We confirm that the productivity growth of Turkish banks was positive over the period of this study, which was mainly due to the improvement in technology, while efficiency growth continued to be negative over the same period. Methodologically, we also prove that not accounting for NPLs in estimating the frontier model might seriously distort the efficiency and productivity results. The study also provides measures of shadow prices for NPL and discusses the results in terms of several interesting trends in Turkish banking. Finally, the paper provides efficiency and productivity comparisons between domestic and foreign banks.     

最优银行集中度之谜

本文通过对89组跨国数据的实证分析,系统研究了银行集中度和银行体系稳定性之间的关系。实证结果表明,银行集中度和银行稳定性之间的关系并不是过往文献所集中讨论的简单线性关系,而是存在一个最优的银行集中度区间(0.6,0.8],这一区间恰好位于样本均值附近,并向样本均值收敛;而当一国的银行集中度水平处于(0.8,0.9]时,银行体系的稳定性最低,极易发生银行危机。进一步的分析表明,在最优的银行集中度区间内,银行业的产业结构能较好地在适度竞争和盈利之间获得平衡,而隐藏在"最优银行集中度之谜"背后的机制极有可能是"优胜劣汰"这一自然法则在社会经济领域的再现。     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.     

Concentration and foreign penetration in Latin American banking sectors: Impact on competition and risk

In the 1990s, Latin American banking sectors experienced an accelerated process of concentration and foreign penetration that prompted diverse views regarding its implications for the competitive behavior of banks and the financial stability of the system. In this paper, we examine these issues exploiting a rich bank-level database for eight Latin American countries. We find that, while increased concentration did not weaken banking competition within the region, foreign penetration appears to have led to a less competitive industry. Moreover, we find that bank risk has been negatively associated with competition which, coupled with the previous finding, explains the positive link between banking sector stability and foreign penetration revealed by the data.     

A critical level of commercial bank concentration : An application of switching regressions

This paper reports on a study of a critical level of concentration in banking markets using switching regressions as the proper estimating technique. The technique employs a search procedure that yields maximum likelihood estimates of thecritical concentration level and of the coefficients of the concentration-performance relationship. A threshold level of concentration appears to exist, above which the impacts of changes in concentration are the greatest. These results suggest that scarce bank regulatory resources be directed toward relatively more concentrated markets where the regulatory effort would seem to have the greatest impact. The results conflict with the findings of the few previous studies of this relationship in banking, presumably because they employed inappropriate estimating techniques.     

转型期国有商业银行不良贷款控制策略探析

“二次剥离”加上国有商业银行自身的积极处置,国有商业银行不良贷款连续几年实现了“双降”。但无论从外部经营环境看,还是从银行内部分支机构间发展极不均衡的情况和股份制改革现状分析,不良贷款反弹的压力非常大。本文通过深入分析存量和新增不良贷款特征与成因,指出新增不良贷款一方面会严重制约国有商业银行改制转型乃至整个金融改革的顺利推进,另一方面积累到一定程度将会加剧国民经济的不稳定程度。鉴于此,作者提出从存量处置、增量控制、综合治理、市场拓展、流程再造、信贷整顿、精细化管理等方面加快创新,控制信贷风险,促使经营管理改革顺利推进。     

Are Competitive Banking Systems More Stable?

Using the Panzar and Rosse H-statistic as a measure of competition in 45 countries, we find that more competitive banking systems are less prone to experience a systemic crisis and exhibit increased time to crisis. This result holds even when we control for banking system concentration, which is associated with higher probability of a crisis and shorter time to crisis. Our results indicate that competition and concentration capture different characteristics of banking systems, meaning that concentration is an inappropriate proxy for competition. The findings suggest that policies promoting competition among banks, if well executed, have the potential to improve systemic stability.     

外资银行进入对我国银行业市场竞争度的影响：基于Panzar-Rosse模型的实证研究

本文采用Panzar-Rosse模型度量了1996年至2006年间我国银行业的市场竞争度,并对外资银行进入程度与市场竞争度的关系进行了经验分析,结果表明,近十年间我国银行业呈现垄断竞争格局,且竞争压力呈上升趋势,这主要归因于银行业市场集中度的下降。外资银行进入程度与银行业市场竞争度呈现U型关系,当前外资银行带来的实际竞争压力还很有限,只有当外资银行进入程度达到并超过一定水平时,才会对我国银行业的市场竞争发挥促进作用。     

Factors influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign commercial banks in the European Union

Using bank level data this paper examines how bank's specific characteristics and the overall banking environment affect the profitability of commercial domestic and foreign banks operating in the 15 EU countries over the period 1995–2001. The results indicate that profitability of both domestic and foreign banks is affected not only by bank's specific characteristics but also by financial market structure and macroeconomic conditions. All the variables, with the exception of concentration in the case of domestic banks profits, are significant although their impact and relation with profits is not always the same for domestic and foreign banks.     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.     

How does competition affect bank risk-taking?

A common assumption in the academic literature and in the supervision of banking systems is that franchise value plays a key role in limiting bank risk-taking. As market power is the primary source of franchise value, reduced competition in banking markets has been seen as promoting banking stability. A recent paper by Martínez-Miera and Repullo (MMR, 2010) shows that a nonlinear relationship theoretically exists between bank competition and risk-taking in the loan market. We test this hypothesis using data from the Spanish banking system. After controlling for macroeconomic conditions and bank characteristics, we find support for this nonlinear relationship using standard measures of market concentration in both the loan and deposit markets. When direct measures of market power, such as Lerner indices, are used, the empirical results are more supportive of the original franchise value hypothesis, but only in the loan market. Overall, the results highlight the empirical relevance of the MMR model, even though further analysis across other banking markets is needed.     

The relation between commercial bank profit rates and banking concentration in Canada,Western Europe,and Japan

This paper examines the relation between the profit rates of 60 banks and concentration in the ‘home’ banking market of each. Other explanatory variables found to be significant are whether the bank is government owned, a proxy for profit rates throughout each country, and the rate of growth of individual banks' assets. The evidence supports the view that greater concentration leads to higher profit rates. However the relatively small coefficients of the concentration variable indicate that relatively large changes in concentration are necessary to reduce profit rates by one percentage point.     

Credit information,consolidation and credit market performance: Bank-level evidence from developing countries

Paying particular attention to the degree of banking market concentration in developing countries, this paper examines the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. Using bank-level data from African countries over the period 2004 to 2009 and a dynamic two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, it is found that credit information sharing increases bank lending. The degree of banking market concentration moderates the effect of credit information sharing on bank lending. The results are robust to controlling for possible interactions between credit information sharing and governance.     

Bank concentration,competition, and crises: First results

Motivated by public policy debates about bank consolidation and conflicting theoretical predictions about the relationship between bank concentration, bank competition and banking system fragility, this paper studies the impact of national bank concentration, bank regulations, and national institutions on the likelihood of a country suffering a systemic banking crisis. Using data on 69 countries from 1980 to 1997, we find that crises are less likely in economies with more concentrated banking systems even after controlling for differences in commercial bank regulatory policies, national institutions affecting competition, macroeconomic conditions, and shocks to the economy. Furthermore, the data indicate that regulatory policies and institutions that thwart competition are associated with greater banking system fragility.     

Competition in markets with dominant firms: A note on the evidence from the Italian banking industry

In this paper we consider the Italian banking industry, where the eight largest firms operate at a national level, manage about a half of total loans, and have a notably larger dimension than the other competitors. We estimate a structural model containing a behavioural parameter, in order to assess the market conduct of the largest banks for the period 1988–2000. Our finding is that, in spite of their noteworthy size and significant market share, these banks have been characterised by a more competitive conduct than the Bertrand–Nash outcome: this is in line with the results of the latest literature of the field, for which in the banking industry there is often no conflict between competition and concentration.     

银行业市场集中度对货币政策传导有效性影响研究——基于信贷传导视角

选取我国17家商业银行2006－2017年数据构建固定效应面板数据模型进行实证分析,结果表明:银行业市场集中度的变化会对货币政策信贷传导有效性产生影响。当银行集中度较高时,银行集中度与货币政策信贷传导有效性间呈正向变动关系;但是反向关系存在于较低银行集中度时,临界点位于银行集中度为39.795%时。中小型银行的信贷增速较之大型国有商业银行受到货币政策影响更大。银行集中度越低意味着竞争程度越强,货币政策信贷传导的有效性越高。