固定利率住房抵押贷款定价研究——基于隐含期权视角

由于缺乏经验,我国商业银行固定利率住房抵押贷款定价存在不合理性,既影响了固定利率住房抵押贷款业务的健康发展,又导致了借贷双方风险与收益的不匹配。在市场利率服从几何布朗运动的基础上．本文从隐含期权视角出发构建固定利率住房抵押贷款单位风险收益最大化模型,并求出最优解,为商业银行固定利率住房抵押贷款定价提供理论和技术参考。     

固定利率住房抵押贷款的利率风险分析

住房抵押贷款正在我国迅猛发展。固定利率住房抵押贷款由于融资成本固定,且借款人拥有在市场利率下降时提前还贷的选择而更受借款人欢迎。但对银行而言,固定利率的利率风险管理有较高要求。本文分析了国内银行经营固定利率贷款的现实意义,分析了固定利率住房抵押贷款利率风险的测算与度量,研究管理可变利率住房抵押贷款利率风险的几种思路和方法,指出有效的套期保值、合理收取提前还贷违约金、建立利率风险损失准备金和资产证券化是管理利率风险的有效方法。     

住房抵押贷款风险研究

我国房地产发展迅猛的同时住房抵押贷款规模也在不断扩大,这对贷款的风险管理提出了很高的要求。本文从影响贷款的两个主要因素—利率和房价入手,利用借款人的两个或有期权构建了贷款定价模型,并阐述了提前支付成本和违约成本对贷款价格的影响。同时也分析了影响贷款价格的其它摩擦性因素,并对住房抵押贷款风险提出了一些建设性意见。     

住房抵押贷款风险研究

我国房地产发展迅猛的同时住房抵押贷款规模也在不断扩大,这对贷款的风险管理提出了很高的要求。本文从影响贷款的两个主要因素—利率和房价入手,利用借款人的两个或有期权构建了贷款定价模型,并阐述了提前支付成本和违约成本对贷款价格的影响。同时也分析了影响贷款价格的其它摩擦性因素,并对住房抵押贷款风险提出了一些建设性意见。     

商业银行住房抵押贷款违约风险防范的博弈分析

住房抵押贷款是当前中国百姓购房的主要支付手段，也是商业银行开展消费贷款的重要业务。清楚认识并有效控制住房抵押贷款的违约风险，对商业银行房贷业务发展具有决定性意义。因此，运用博弈论的基本分析方法，模拟银行与借款人的客观情况，构建银行与借款人的博弈模型，分析了商业银行房贷业务违约风险的影响因素。模型分析表明，首付比率、房价变动以及借款人征信体系等因素对借款人的违约行为有显著影响，同时指出要有效控制住房抵押贷款的违约风险，可适当提高首付比率，密切关注房价变动，逐步完善借款人征信体系。     

个人住房抵押贷款被动违约风险生成机理探析

个人住房抵押贷款被动违约是基于借款人发生财务困难等原因,导致无法按期支付住房抵押贷款而被银行收回房产的违约行为.     

上海市住房反向抵押贷款养老保险问题研究——产品定价与风险防范

一、引言 作为一项新型金融产品,住房反向抵押贷款是否具有生命力,取决于其定价是否合理。由于住房反向抵押贷款借贷期限长,影响因素复杂,如利率、房价的波动、人均预期寿命的延长、道德风险等,定价一直就是住房反向抵押贷款的难点与核心,国内外学者围绕这一问题构建了诸多模型进行定量研究。目前主要是集中在固定利率的定价上。     

住房抵押贷款证券化的证券品种设计研究

住房抵押贷款支持证券是创新型的房地产衍生金融产品,它能有效化解房地产市场的金融风险和扩大房地产融资渠道.从我国第一只住房抵押贷款支持证券“建元“的发行情况来看,国内机构投资者对资产支持证券的定价能力还有待于加强.对于住房抵押贷款支持证券,必须重点关注其“利率风险“和“提前还款风险“.在证券化产品的设计上,如果采用持续还本差级证券,则必须构建合理的提前还款模型和违约模型,确保模型能够比较准确地拟合历史的提前还款率和违约率,同时还必须具备一定的预测能力.     

美国次贷危机对我国商业银行信贷风险控制的启示

一、美国次贷危机形成的原因美国房地产次贷危机,也叫房地产"次级抵押贷款"危机。所谓次级抵押贷款是相对于优质和次优级抵押贷款而言的,是为信用等级不高、收入较低、债务负担大的借款人提供的信贷服务,需要借款人以住房或其他财产作为抵押。由于借款人的违约风险比较大,因此次级抵押贷款要求的利率比优质抵押贷款高得多,是一种典型的高风险、高收益的业务。发放次级抵押贷款的金融机构为了转移风险和回收资金,往往将其进行证券化,在资本市场出售。这样,次级抵押贷款就变成了资产     

固定利率住房抵押贷款证券化探讨

固定利率住房抵押贷款证券化不仅对银行在推行固定利率住房抵押贷款过程中防范利率风险、流动性风险、信用风险等具有积极作用，而且能减轻银行的吸储压力，提高银行的盈利能力，建立银行与资本市场的联系。同时，投资者、政府又给予其强力的外部支持。因而在我国实行固定利率住房抵押贷款证券化十分必要。建立和发展一级市场、完善定价机制，提供资产证券化发展的法律支持，完善会计制度，提供税费方面的优惠等措施对于我国顺利推行固定利率住房抵押贷款证券化是切实可行的重要措施。     

Fixed-Rate Endowment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity Valuation

We use a contingent claims framework for valuing the the default and prepayment embedded options in certain British fixed-rate endowment mortgages, with a (capped) mortgage indemnity guarantee (MIG). This methodology provides a template for the borrower, lender, and insurer to compare mortgage terms, including the fairness of contract rates, arrangement fees, prepayment penalties, any MIG premiums required, and co-insurance exposure. With empirical inputs, this model may eventually be useful as a mark-to-value proxy for all parties, as expected parameters change (especially interest rate and house price levels, and expected future volatilities), for purposes of determining valued added accounting, appropriate reserves, and indeed for setting premiums and business drivers. Fixed-rate endowment mortgages differ from fixed-rate repayment mortgages primarily because, in the event of early termination, the amount owed by the borrower is a function of the evolution of the term structure of interest rates, whereas for a repayment mortgage it is pre-determined. We compare endownment and repayment mortgages for different levels of loan-to-value ratios, interest rate and house price volatilities.     

Mortgage defaults

A life-cycle model is developed in which households face income and house-price risk and buy houses with mortgages. This model, which accounts for key features in U.S. data, is used as a laboratory for prudential policy. Recourse mortgages increase the cost of default but also lower equity and increase payments. The effect on default is nonmonotonic. Loan-to-value (LTV) limits increase equity and lower the default rate, with negligible effects on housing demand. Combining recourse mortgages and LTV limits reduces the default rate while boosting housing demand. Together, they also prevent spikes in default after large declines in aggregate house prices.     

Mortgage convexity

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.     

Mortgage timing

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters’ data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.     

Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis

Which theory can quantitatively explain the rise in mortgage defaults during the U.S. mortgage crisis? This paper finds that the double‐trigger hypothesis, which attributes mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event such as unemployment, is consistent with the evidence. By contrast, a traditional frictionless default model strongly overpredicts the increase in default rates. This paper provides microfoundations for double‐trigger behavior in a model where unemployment causes liquidity problems for the borrower. This framework implies that mortgage crises may be mitigated at a lower cost by bailing out borrowers instead of lenders.     

抵押选择性风险转移产品

选择性风格转移产品（Alternative Risk Transfer，简称ART）的发展，是近年来引起国际保险界广泛关注的一个问题。ART产品之所以兴起，其根本原因就在于全球经济的迅速发展，适应于广大股东对新型保险产品的迫切需求，代表着21世纪保险业发展的新趋势。     

典当:枯木逢春

一度绝迹 典当,是一个古老的行业,堪称金融业的鼻祖,迄今已有1700余年的历史了. 新中国建立后,典当行一度绝迹.1987年12月,四川成都开办了新中国第一家典当行--华茂典当服务商社,率先恢复了古老的典当行.自此,开办典当行之风大兴,大有席卷全国之势,最盛时的1993年全国各地开设了3000多家典当行,几经沉浮,如今尚存1000余家.这其中的大起大落,也与对典当行定位的认识不清、把握不准有关.     

Optimal Mortgage Contract Choice Decision in the Presence of Pay Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage and the Balloon Mortgage

The unprecedented run-up in global house prices of the 2000s was preceded by a revolution in U.S. mortgage markets in which borrowers faced a plethora of mortgages to choose from collectively known as nontraditional mortgages (NTMs), whose poor performance helped ignite the global financial crisis in 2007. This paper studies the choice of mortgage contracts in an expanded framework where the menu of contracts includes the pay option adjustable rate mortgage (PO-ARM), and the balloon mortgage (BM), alongside the traditional long horizon fixed rate mortgage (FRM) and the short horizon regular ARM. The inclusion of the PO-ARM is based on the fact it is the most controversial and perhaps the riskiest of the NTMs, whereas the BM has not been analyzed in the literature despite its different risk-sharing arrangement and long vintage. Our inclusive model relates the structural differences of these contracts to the horizon risk management problems and affordability constraints faced by the households that differ in terms of expected mobility. The numerical solutions of the model generates a number of interesting results suggesting that households select mortgage contracts to match their horizon, manage horizon risk and mitigate liquidity or affordability constraints they face. From a risk management and welfare perspectives, we find that the optimal contract for households with shorter horizons, specifically households who expect to move house once every 1 to 2 years, is the PO-ARM. Beyond 2 years the welfare advantage of the PO-ARM diminishes and BM becomes the more optimal contract up to 5-year horizon. Overall, the results suggest that households are neither as risk averse as the selection of the FRM would suggest, nor are they as risk-seeking as the selection of PO-ARM or regular ARM would suggest. The results also suggest that the exuberance demonstrated for NTMs by borrowers, especially PO-ARMs, may be both rational and irrational.     

动产抵押的新拓展:枣庄活体畜禽抵押贷款案例

加大对畜牧业的信贷投入、缓解融资困境已成为调整农村产业结构、促进农村经济发展的重要内容.枣庄市峄城区农联社创办了"活体畜禽抵押"贷款新模式,为破解畜禽养殖企业融资困境提供了一条新途径.     

The Effect of Mortgage Price and Default Risk on Mortgage Spreads

Variations over time in mortgage yield spreads should reflect changes in the underlying prepayment option value; moreover, the relationship between mortgage yield spreads and interest rate dynamics should weaken as the value of the borrowers prepayment option declines. We verify this hypothesis through an empirical analysis of residential mortgage yield spread behavior, and we also present evidence that the strength of the relationship between mortgage spreads and interest rate dynamics weakens (strengthens) as the level of default risk increases (decreases). This result is consistent with the competing risks effect between a borrowers option to prepay or default. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for mortgage price discount to par as well as default risk when developing time series of mortgage yields.