One-Period Model of Individual Consumption, Life Insurance, and Investment Decisions

This article studies individuals' optimal decisions on consumption, life insurance, and stock purchases in a one‐period framework. With exponential utility functions, individuals' life insurance and stock purchases are independent of each other; life insurance purchases are affected only by individuals' future income, bequest intensity, risk attitude, survival probability, and the insurance risk premium; stock purchases are affected only by individuals' risk attitude, the risk‐free rate of return, the stock return, and stock volatility. With power utility functions, life insurance and stock purchases are positively related with each other and are affected by all the factors.     

指数保险有效性实证分析

运用Miranda模型研究发现,农户个体产量波动与所在区域产量波动存在高度正相关性,基于区域产量保险的保费率低于传统农业保险的保费率,这有利于刺激指数保险的需求。由于指数保险克服了传统农业保险市场中的逆向选择与道德风险问题,降低了交易成本,从而指数保险能够降低农户的保费支出并有效管理农业生产风险。     

人寿保险行业市场开放度效率研究

以东、中、西部各省(市)人寿保险公司设立、寿险保费收入和中外资寿险人员安排的劳动力投入等指标数据衡量人寿保险业的市场布局,结果显示:东、中、西部2002-2011年人寿保险公司一级(省级)分公司数量和分布密度逐年增加,各省寿险保费收入和中外资寿险人员劳动力投入的布局比重基本呈现逐年递增的趋势.运用DEA中投入导向CCR模型对我国人寿保险行业市场开放度效率进行分析,结果显示:中资寿险开放度效率相对较高,全国水平次之,外资寿险较低但呈现递增波动趋势.人寿保险业市场开放布局与开放度效率呈阶段式波动递增相关关系.     

The use of Hurst and effective return in investing

This study measures the deposit insurance premium under stochastic interest rates for Taiwan's banks by applying the two-step maximum likelihood estimation method. The estimation results suggest that the current premiums—charging 5, 5.5, and 6 basis points per dollar of insured deposits—are too low, but largely reflect the rank orders of the risks of the insured banks. Moreover, the regression results indicate that asset volatility dominates bank size in determining the insurance premium. When the volatility risk is decomposed into two parts, credit risk significantly dominates interest-rate risk. An examination of bank characteristics indicates that privately owned old banks are more likely to have lower levels of credit risk, asset volatility, and deposit insurance premiums than state-owned banks and newly chartered banks.     

The Economics of Insurance Intermediaries

This article analyzes the economic functions of independent insurance intermediaries (brokers and independent agents), focusing on the commercial property–casualty insurance market. The article investigates the functions performed by intermediaries, the competitiveness of the market, the compensation arrangements for intermediaries, and the process by which policies are placed with insurers. Insurance intermediaries are essentially market makers who match the insurance needs of policyholders with insurers who have the capability of meeting those needs. Intermediary compensation comprises premium‐based commissions, expressed as a percentage of the premium paid, and contingent commissions based on the profitability, persistency, and/or volume of the business placed with the insurer. Empirical evidence is provided that premium‐based and contingent commissions are passed on to policyholders in the premium. However, contingent commissions can enhance competitive bidding by aligning the insurer's and the intermediary's interests. This alignment of interests gives insurers more confidence in the selection of risks and thus helps to break the “winner's curse” and encourages insurers to bid more aggressively. Independent intermediaries also help markets operate more efficiently by reducing the information asymmetries between insurers and buyers that can cause adverse selection.     

Are Farmers’ Behaviors Rational When They Pay Less for Social Endowment Insurance? Evidence from Chinese Rural Survey Data

In recent years, farmers have had high participation rate in the rural social endowment insurance in China, for which personal contribution and government subsidy are the main funding source. There have been increasingly more farmers participating into the program. However, their enthusiasm for high premium payment was rather low as most of them selected the minimum premium for insurance. In this article, the discounted utility theory from behavioral economics was adopted to analyze insurance selection behaviors of farmers; in addition, a discounted incremental utility model with a hyperbolic discounting function was also further constructed to describe their insurance decision-making processes. Based on the investigation of time preferences of farmers, their insurance participation behaviors of diverse natures were simulated. The corresponding results indicated that active insurance participation and low insurance premium payment were rational choices for most farmers; in comparison, for the elders with higher income, different choices can be made. Therefore, policy makers could formulate differentiated subsidy policies directing at farmers from different groups, so as to stimulate their enthusiasm for premium payment.     

制度变迁视角下的社会保险费征缴体制研究

自我国建立社会保险制度以来,采用了三种不同的社会保险费征缴体制,即劳动部门全责征收的体制、劳动核定、税务征收的核征分离体制、税务部门全责征收的体制,这是社会保险费征缴体制变迁的结果。社会保险费征缴体制是社会保障体系建设的重要重成部分,系统分析社会保险费征缴体制变迁的一般规律和发展方向,对于指导社会保险费征缴体制改革,加强社会保障体系建设具有重要意义。     

Mossin's Theorem for Upper-Limit Insurance Policies

Although Mossin's Theorem (“full insurance with a fair premium and less‐than‐full coverage with a proportional premium loading”) is well known for the classes of coinsurance contracts and for deductible‐insurance contracts, it has not been proven for the class of upper‐limit insurance contracts. This article provides a proof for this case.     

ON THE SHAREHOLDER WEALTH EFFECTS OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE PREMIUM REVISIONS ON LARGE,PUBLICLY TRADED COMMERCIAL BANKS

Evidence is provided from changes in deposit insurance premiums in the early 1990s on the validity of the premium absorption hypothesis and the premium shifting hypothesis. Analysis of abnormal market returns associated with deposit insurance events using a market‐model event‐study methodology suggests that reductions in deposit insurance premiums are associated with increases in the market value of banking organizations; conversely, increases in deposit insurance premiums are associated with decreases in market wealth. The largest banks in the sample and banks with low equity capital (and low risk‐based capital ratios) appear to be most affected. These results are generally consistent with the premium absorption hypothesis but inconsistent with the premium shifting hypothesis.     

Pareto-Optimal Insurance Policies in the Models with a Premium Based on the Actuarial Value

This article analyzes the problem of designing Pareto‐optimal insurance policies when both the insurer and the insured are risk averse and the premium is calculated as a function of the actuarial value of the insurer's risk. Two models are considered: in the first, the set of admissible policies is constrained by a given size of the premium; in the second, the premium size is not constrained so that it varies with the actuarial value of a policy chosen by the agents. For both cases a characterization of the Pareto‐optimal policies is derived. The corresponding optimality equations for the Pareto‐optimal policies are obtained and compared with the results on the classical risk exchange model.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

论我国养老保险逃费的危害、原因和治理

养老保险基金主要由劳动者和企事业单位缴费形成,它是养老保险制度赖以建立的基础。养老保险逃费对这一基础起着极大的破坏作用。调查研究结果表明,我国的养老保险逃费问题比较突出,相当一部分应缴费单位和个人都存在逃费现象,逃费形式花样百出,它直接影响养老保险制度的正常运行和发展。逃费是经济发展水平和劳动者的收入状况、养老保险主体行为和养老保险制度本身多种因素共同作用的结果。克服养老保险逃费需要从多方面着手:努力发展经济,不断提高劳动者收入;改革养老保险管理制度;充分调动企业参加养老保险的积极性;提高劳动者参加养老保险的积极性;强化各级政府的责任;加强养老保险管理部门的责任。     

基于自回归分布滞后模型的我国财产险保费增长实证研究

通过建立财产险保费增长的自回归分布滞后模型,使用Engle-Granger两步法对1980—2010年我国产险保费增长进行实证研究。研究结果表明,我国财产险保费与GDP之间存在着协整关系,自回归分布滞后模型比经典回归模型具有更好的拟合效果和预测能力。     

区域保险差异及协同发展研究

本文通过实证分析得出东、中、西部保险在区域保费收入、保险密度、保险深度、区域保费增长数量及速度、保费收入的GDP弹性、潜在保源转化率上有较大差距,而在保险结构、保险经营、保险法律、保险监管等方面呈现出趋同性,没有多大的差别和明显的区域保险特色.因此,应从区域保险实际出发,充分发挥东部保险的带动和辐射作用,制定中、西部保险发展的差异化扶持政策,实施区域保险经营行为差异化,以促进区域保险协同发展.     

Market Illiquidity and Conditional Equity Premium

We examine the time‐series relation between aggregate bid‐ask spreads and conditional equity premium. We document that average marketwide relative effective bid‐ask spreads forecast aggregate market returns only when controlling for average idiosyncratic variance. This control allows us to document the otherwise elusive relation between illiquidity and returns. The reason is that idiosyncratic variance correlates positively with spreads but has a negative effect on conditional equity premium, causing an omitted variable bias. Our results are robust to standard return predictors, alternative illiquidity measures, and out‐of‐sample tests. These findings are important because they provide strong support for the literature's conjecture that marketwide liquidity is an important asset pricing risk factor.     

The effect of information disclosure on demand for high‐load insurance

Economists, regulators, and consumer protection agencies have highlighted the welfare losses for consumers who purchase high‐load insurance against modest stakes risks. Mandatory information disclosure is a potentially attractive public policy tool that might improve consumers' choices, but has not been widely tested in insurance settings. We conduct an incentive‐compatible insurance demand experiment, in which we manipulate the information disclosed to subjects. We test whether any of the three most commonly suggested disclosures affect insurance demand, disclosing either (1) the true probability of loss, (2) the contract's expected loss, or (3) the insurer's profit on the transaction. Similar to consumers in naturally occurring insurance markets, subjects in the laboratory demonstrate significant demand for high‐load insurance against modest stakes. However, we find no effect of any of the three disclosure treatments on subjects' insurance choices. We discuss the implications of our results for possible public policy initiatives in insurance markets.     

比较法视域下公司董事赔偿责任保险立法问题研究——基于日本第二次《公司法》修改的比较考察

D&O保险的立法问题是我国司法实践中一个亟需澄清的问题,同时亦是保险法学界关注较多的基础理论问题。本文通过考察D&O保险合同在公司治理中的价值,细致分析在2019年日本第二次《公司法》修改之际学界对D&O保险规则立法与否的争论及立法演进历程,并对增设D&O保险合同规定的初衷以及在决定该保险合同内容时的决策程序进行系统阐释。研究发现,增设D&O保险合同规定、明确公司有权全额负担保险费用,有助于提高管理层的风险承担水平和管理效率,进而促进企业创新。在探讨我国《公司法》是否应当构建D&O保险规则这一问题时,应注意到公司法上的补偿制度是D&O保险存在的前提。就D&O保险合同内容的信息披露问题,一方面,为防止公司费用无限地用于提升填补限额,可采披露D&O合同信息的手段;另一方面,就具体的信息披露事项,不可盲目“照搬”美国做法。     

Premium setting and bank behavior in a voluntary deposit insurance scheme

This study analyzes the effect of premium rates on banks’ incentives to join a deposit insurance scheme and their incentives to invest in risky projects under a voluntary deposit insurance scheme. We find that in order to maximize social welfare, the insurance agency must either set the premium rate to be low so as to attract all banks to join the insurance scheme, or not to have the deposit insurance at all. However, the low premium rate in the voluntary scheme does not balance the budget of the deposit insurance. We also show that in the compulsory deposit insurance scheme, however, it is possible to impose an optimal premium rate that can balance the insurance agency’s budget and achieve the highest social welfare. The results also present the dominance of the compulsory scheme over the voluntary scheme in terms of maximizing social welfare and balancing the budget.

A Note on Partial Insurance and the Arrow-Pratt Measure of Risk Aversion

Pratt [1964] establishes that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense has a higher compensating risk premium for full insurance, but no comparable result has been established for partial insurance. Ross [1981] shows that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense may not be willing to pay more for a reduction in risk in the sense of mean-preserving contraction. We show that a more risk-averse individual in the Arrow-Pratt sense has a higher compensating risk premium for all empirically relevant forms of partial insurance because they induce a reduction in risk in the stronger sense of Bickel and Lemann [1979].JEL Classification No.: D81     

An application of two-stage quantile regression to insurance ratemaking

Two-part models based on generalized linear models are widely used in insurance rate-making for predicting the expected loss. This paper explores an alternative method based on quantile regression which provides more information about the loss distribution and can be also used for insurance underwriting. Quantile regression allows estimating the aggregate claim cost quantiles of a policy given a number of covariates. To do so, a first stage is required, which involves fitting a logistic regression to estimate, for every policy, the probability of submitting at least one claim. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a portfolio of car insurance policies. This application shows that the results of the quantile regression are highly dependent on the claim probability estimates. The paper also examines an application of quantile regression to premium safety loading calculation, the so-called Quantile Premium Principle (QPP). We propose a premium calculation based on quantile regression which inherits the good properties of the quantiles. Using the same insurance portfolio data-set, we find that the QPP captures the riskiness of the policies better than the expected value premium principle.