Does the dog know the proverb？

The little boy did not like the look of the barking dog. ＂It＇s all right.＂said a gentleman.＂Don＇t be afraid.Don＇s you know the proverb.Barking dogs don＇t bite？＂     

Beijing will lift the control over Renminbi at the end of the year.

To realize the promise made at the entry to WTO in 2001, Beijing will lift the control over Renminbi for foreign investment banks on December 1 this year.     

A note on the behaviour of the “tail” of the mixture-poisson distribution

Abstract

A mixture-Poisson distribution is defined by where U(x) is a distribution function concentrated on (0, ∞). This distribution has been applied as a model of the number of claims occurring in an insurance business during a certain period of time.     

Survival of the Fittest or the Fattest? Exit and Financing in the Trucking Industry

This paper studies the impact that capital market imperfections have on the natural selection of the most efficient firms by estimating the effect of the prederegulation level of leverage on the survival of trucking firms after the Carter deregulation. Highly leveraged carriers are less likely to survive the deregulation shock, even after controlling for various measures of efficiency. This effect is stronger in the imperfectly competitive segment of the motor carrier industry. High debt seems to affect survival by curtailing investments and reducing the price per ton-mile that a carrier can afford to charge after deregulation.     

What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?

We model the time-series relation between price and intrinsic value as a cointegrated system, so that price and value are long-term convergent. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value for the Dow 30 stocks. During 1963–1996, traditional market multiples (e.g., B/P, E/P, and D/P ratios) have little predictive power. However, a V/P ratio, where V is based on a residual income valuation model, has statistically reliable predictive power. Further analysis shows time-varying interest rates and analyst forecasts are important to the success of V. Alternative forecast horizons and risk premia are less important.     

Why Does the Interest Rate Decline Over the Day? Evidence from the Liquidity Crisis

We provide a simple model, able to explain why the overnight (ON) rate follows a downward intraday pattern, implicitly creating a positive intraday interest rate. While this normally reflects only some frictions, a liquidity crisis introduces a new component: the chance of an upward jump of the ON rate, which must be compensated by an intraday decline of the ON rate. By analyzing real time data for the e-MID interbank market, we show that the intraday rate has increased from a negligible level to a significant one after the start of the liquidity crisis in August 2007, and even more so since September 2008. The intraday rate is affected by the likelihood of a dry-up of the ON market, proxied by the 3M Euribor—Eonia swap spread. This evidence supports our model and it shows that a liquidity crisis impairs the ability of central banks to curb the market price of intraday liquidity, even by providing free daylight overdrafts. Such results have implications for the efficiency of the money market and of payment systems, as well as for the operational framework of central banks.     

Without the denominator where is the quality improvement paradigm in the nation's health care reform?

This paper will argue that there is room for improvement in the quality of health care delivered in the United States. A quality improvement paradigm requires an assessment, inventory and prioritization of areas for improvement. It further nurtures the imperative of process improvement for the achievement of a targeted outcome. The dual obligations of reduction in outcome variability, and resource management, provide an exciting milieu for the integration of clinical practice, the numerator, with population based medicine, the denominator.     

Housing and the Tax System: How Large Are the Distortions in the Euro Area?*

This paper presents new evidence on the impact of the preferential treatment of owner‐occupied housing in the euro area. We find that tax benefits to homeowners reduce the user cost of housing capital by almost 40 per cent compared with the efficient level under neutral taxation. On average, the tax subsidy translates into an excess consumption of housing services equivalent to 7.8 per cent of the value of owner‐occupied housing, or about 30 per cent of financial asset holdings in household portfolios. The bulk of the subsidy stems from undertaxation of the return to home equity, while the average contribution of the tax rebate for mortgage interest payments is driven down by relatively low loan‐to‐value ratios in the data. However, at the margin, the tax‐induced incentive to use mortgage debt to finance the purchase of the main residence is sizeable.     

Is the Average Investor Smarter than the Average Euro?

In this study, we collect a unique data set of Spanish domestic equity funds for the period 1999–2006 to test the existence of the well-known “smart money” effect. Our focus is to test whether superior performance follows fund flows, demonstrating investor skills, and whether the results are robust for aggregate portfolio analysis and for individual fund analysis. Empirical evidence shows that investor abilities reported by aggregate portfolio analysis are not very evident from a fund-level perspective. This study provides two major contributions to the literature: the separate consideration of purchases and redemptions, and the proposal of a “smart investor” effect which considers investor movements instead of traditional money flows. Results show that investors’ selling decisions are less smart than their buying decisions and that investors, as individuals, are not significantly smarter than money.     

Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?

This paper assesses the potential influence of the growing CDS market on the borrowing cost of sovereign states during the European sovereign crisis. We analyze the sovereign debt market to ascertain the pattern of information transmission between the CDS and corresponding bond markets. Our methodological innovation is the use of a non-linear specification rather than the linear VECM specification customarily employed. Using a panel smooth transition model during the 2008–2010 period, we find that: 1) linearity tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of a linear transmission mechanisms between the bond and the CDS markets; 2) market distress alters the mutual influence and 3) the higher the distress the more the CDS market dominates the information transmission between CDS and bond markets.     

Has the euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use unique quarterly panel data on the invoicing of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996–2006 period. We find that eurozone countries have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro, whereas the home currency share of non-eurozone countries fell slightly. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The substantial rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility and can only to a small extent be explained by an unobserved euro effect.     

Globalization and the state–profession relationship: the case the Bank of Credit and Commerce International

Globalization of businesses raises major questions about the regulation of corporations, both in the national and international context. The debate is marked by two competing views. The ‘hyperglobalists’ claim that in a globalized world, nation-states cannot take effective actions to regulate multinational businesses, especially those relating to banking and finance. In response, the ‘skeptics’ accept the view that to regulate corporations, the nation-state has always had to restructure itself. However, they challenge the contention that globalization has reduced the power, functions and authority of the state. The paper contributes to the debate through an examination of some of the processes leading to the forced closure (and the aftermath) of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI), a bank that operated from 73 countries. It particularly focuses upon the role of the banking regulators and their reliance upon auditing technologies to regulate major banks. The paper sides with the ‘skeptics’ and argues that the nation states, especially major Western states, remain important players in the regulation of global businesses. It concludes that the nation-state’s capacity to regulate global enterprises is compromised by history, domestic concerns and relationships with class and capitalist interests rather than by globalization per se.     

Quantifying the components of the banks’ net interest margin

Using unique data sets on German banks, we decompose their net interest margin and quantify the different components by estimating the costs of the various functions they perform. We investigate three major functions: liquidity and payment management for customers, bearing credit risk, and term transformation. For 2013, the costs of liquidity and payment management correspond, in the median, to 47% of the net interest margin, with bearing of credit risk and earnings from term transformation accounting for 12 and 37%, respectively.     

From the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measures to the Optimal Strategies for the Exponential Utility Maximization: the Case of Geometric Lévy Processes

In this article, we will consider a multi-dimensional geometric L'evy process as a financial market model. We will first determine the minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM); we will next derive the optimal strategy for the exponential utility maximization of terminal wealth concretely from the representation of the MEMM. JEL Classification: D46, D52, G12 AMS (2000) Subject Classification: 60G44, 60G51, 60G52,60H20, 60J75, 91B16, 91B28, 94A17     

Re-theorizing the configuration of organizational fields: the IIRC and the pursuit of ‘Enlightened’ corporate reporting

This paper studies the emergence of the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC) and its attempts to institutionalize integrated reporting as a practice that is critical to the relevance and value of corporate reporting. Informed by Suddaby and Viale’s [(2011). Professionals and field-level change: institutional work and the professional project. Current Sociology, 59, 423–442] theorization of how professionals reconfigure organizational fields, the paper delineates the strategies and mechanisms through which the IIRC has sought to enroll the support of a wide range of stakeholder groups for the idea of integrated reporting in order to deliver a fundamental reconfiguration of the corporate reporting field. The paper’s analysis reinforces the significance to any such field reconfiguration of the reciprocal and mutual arrangements between influential professionals and other powerful actors but does so in a way that (a) refines Suddaby and Viale’s theorization of processes of field-level change and (b) pinpoints the fundamental policy challenges facing the IIRC. Gieryn’s [(1983). Boundary work and the demarcation of science from non-science: strains and interests in professional ideologies of scientists. American Sociological Review, 48 (6), 781–795] notion of boundary work is operationalized to capture some of the complexity and dynamism of the change process that is not sufficiently represented by Suddaby and Viale’s more sequentialist theorization. From a policy perspective, the paper demonstrates just how much the IIRC’s prospects for success in reconfiguring the corporate reporting field depend on its ability to reconfigure the mainstream investment field. Ultimately, this serves to question whether the IIRC’s conceptualization of ‘enlightened’ corporate reporting is sufficiently powerful and persuasive to stimulate ‘enlightened’ investment behavior focused on the medium and long term – and, more generally stresses the theoretical significance of considering connections across related organizational fields in institutional analyses of field reconfiguration efforts.     

Computing the survival probability in the Madan–Unal credit risk model: application to the CDS market

We obtain a quasi-analytical approximation of the survival probability in the credit risk model proposed in [Madan, D.B. and Unal, H., Pricing the risk of default. Rev. Deriv. Res., 1998, 2(2), 121–160]. Such a formula, which extensive numerical simulations reveal to be accurate and computationally fast, can also be employed for pricing credit default swaps (CDSs). Specifically, we derive a quasi-analytical approximate expression for CDS par spreads, and we use it to estimate the parameters of the model. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical and real market data.     

Defensive capacity: the influence of the facilitation‐regulation space

In their paper ‘Loss of Defensive Capacity in Protective Operations: The Implications of the Überlingen and Linate Disasters’ Busby and Bennett attribute the ‘defensive capacity’ of an airspace system to the behaviour of those who constitute its production‐protection space (first‐line producers like avionics manufacturers, airlines, pilots' groups and airport authorities). This paper argues that an airspace system's defensive capacity is also a function of the behaviour of those who constitute its ‘facilitation‐regulation’ space – the rulemakers (and, to some degree, the non‐statutory bodies who seek to influence them). This elaboration recognises two aspects of regulation. First that some regulators are responsible for promoting both safety and efficiency (the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for example). Secondly that regulators who prioritise efficiency over safety may reduce overall system safety and/or create opportunities (affordances) for unsafe behaviour. The argument is illustrated with reference to the National Transportation Safety Board's criticism of the FAA's human factors training programmes for air traffic controllers, its aircraft surface‐movement standards and procedures and its air traffic controller rostering practices following the 2006 crash of a passenger aircraft at Lexington, Kentucky and FAA's implementation of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System.     

What Should the World Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?

The phrase "Washington Consensus" has become a familiar termin development policy circles in recent years, but it is nowused in several different senses, causing a great deal of confusion.In this article the author distinguishes between his originalmeaning as a summary of the lowest common denominator of policyadvice addressed by the Washington-based institutions (includingthe World Bank) and subsequent use of the term to signify neoliberalor market-fundamentalist policies. He argues that the latterpolicies could not be expected to provide an effective frameworkfor combating poverty but that the original advice is stillbroadly valid. The article discusses alternative ways of addressingthe confusion. It argues that any policy manifesto designedto eliminate poverty needs to go beyond the original versionbut concludes by cautioning that no consensus on a wider agendacurrently exists.