盈余管理、投资者情绪与股价“同涨同跌”

上市公司的盈余管理和投资者情绪是否影响了股价的"同涨同跌"(股价同步性),证券市场信息效率是否因此受到了影响?本文采用2002～2010年中国股市和上市公司样本,用R2度量股价同步性,检验在不同市场不确定性下盈余管理和投资者情绪对股价同步性的影响。研究发现:管理者盈余管理使得股价同步性降低,而投资者情绪波动使得股价同步性上升;但是,两者均导致股票收益的"惯性"或"反转"效应增强,即市场信息效率下降。因此,本文认为不能简单地以股价同步性的高低来衡量股价的信息效率,需结合影响股价同步性的信息不对称和心理因素进行新的解释。     

机会主义盈余管理、投资者情绪与股价崩盘风险

股价崩盘风险受到哪些因素影响一直是学者和资本市场关注的热点问题之一,本文考察了机会主义盈余管理行为如何影响股价崩盘风险。本文选取2007-2016年中国上市公司数据进行研究,结果发现:上市公司的盈余管理程度与股价崩盘风险呈显著正相关关系;相对于非机会主义,机会主义的盈余管理对股价崩盘风险的影响更大;无论是盈余管理程度、还是机会主义盈余管理行为,对股价崩盘风险的影响都随着投资者情绪高涨而加大。本文拓展了盈余管理与股价崩盘风险之间关系的研究,有助于投资者全面理解机会主义盈余管理对股价崩盘风险的影响。     

透视中国上市公司的“迎合投资”行为

采用2003～2008年中国沪深股票市场的A股上市公司作为研究样本,在市场非理性背景下研究投资者情绪对上市公司投资行为的影响。区分市场情绪低落和高涨时期,发现只有在市场情绪高涨时期公司投资才对投资者情绪敏感;而在市场情绪低落时期,上市公司通过盈余管理导致错误定价配合公司投资决策。作为投资者短视代表的换手率对上市公司迎合投资行为的影响呈倒U型,说明并不是换手率越高,公司投资对投资者情绪的迎合越明显。     

投资者情绪与股票价格之间的信息溢出效应研究——基于行业差异视角

本文基于股票市场的信息溢出视角,研究市场情绪与行业指数间的交互关系。通过对两者信息溢出时变特征的分析,进而探究不同场景下投资者心理与市场收益率、波动率间的复杂交互行为机理和规则,刻画情绪对市场发展影响的过程。实证结果表明:投资者情绪与各行业收益率、波动率之间呈非对称关系,三者关系的异常变化有助于投资者增强对市场异变的理解;我国投资者"损失规避"的特点显著;基于不同的行业特征,各行业股价变化与情绪之间的关系也不尽相同。     

融资需求、投资者情绪与盈余管理

本文基于2012-2018年A股上市非金融企业数据实证考察了融资需求与盈余管理的关系,在此基础上引入外部市场环境因素-投资者情绪作为调节变量。研究发现:融资需求对企业的盈余管理具有显著的正向影响,融资需求越强烈的企业,其应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的程度越高;此外,投资者情绪作为一种市场非理性因素,一方面会通过迎合效应对融资规模产生影响,另一方面也会引起股票的错误定价从而改变企业融资成本;实证结果表明相比低迷的投资者情绪,高涨的投资者情绪会显著促进融资需求与盈余管理的正向关系。     

我国上市公司盈余管理对股价影响的实证分析

盈余管理在西方被称为“市场参与者的游戏”，近年来日益受到我国会计学界的关注。证券市场的迅速发展要求上市公司提供高质量的会计信息，由于盈余管理与会计信息质量关系密切，使得对上市公司盈余管理问题的研究成为投资者、债权人、政府主管部门以及会计准则制定机构关注的重点。另一方面，证券市场经验数据证明，股价的波动也同盈余管理密切相关，而利益相关者很可能利用盈余管理手段来影响股价从而获取利益。因此，加强我国上市公司盈余管理和股价相关性的研究，对提高上市公司会计信息质量和改善证券市场资源优化配置功能有着重要意义。本文运用实证分析方法，选取了竞争性强的家电行业和竞争性弱的石油行业的上市公司，从盈余管理度量着手，研究竞争性不同行业的上市公司盈余管理对股价的影响大小，并对投资者的行为提出相关建议。     

管理层能力与股价崩盘风险——基于盈余管理中介效应的检验

利用2007—2016年我国证券市场上市公司A股数据,研究管理层能力与股价崩盘风险之间的关系,并在此基础上探究不同盈余管理方式在两者关系中发挥的作用。结果表明：上市公司管理层能力越强,股价崩盘风险越小;真实盈余管理程度在管理层能力与股价崩盘风险关系中表现的中介效应更显著。     

投资者情绪、货币政策与股市泡沫 ——基于SV-TVP-SVAR模型研究

文章通过结合带有随机波动时变参数的结构向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-SVAR),研究投资者情绪、货币政策和股市泡沫三者之间的联动关系及其随时间推移而发生显著性变化。实证结果表明:投资者情绪、货币政策与股市泡沫之间存在很强的时变性和脉冲响应,在不同时期投资者情绪对股市泡沫的脉冲响应是反向变动的,而货币政策对股市泡沫的脉冲响应则是同向变动的。根据实证结果提出:发展机构投资者发挥媒体监督作用,引导投资者理性投资;货币政策应适当关注股价;合理控制货币供应量;防止股市泡沫。     

公司并购、盈余管理与高管薪酬变动

基于前人关于上市公司盈余管理影响因素的研究,本文分析了主并方公司并购收益与并购完成后公司盈余管理之间的关系,以及两者对高管货币性薪酬变动的相互作用机制。本文以2007至2012年我国沪深两市发生重大并购的A股上市公司为研究对象,结果发现:在并购完成后,并购收益与公司盈余管理存在负相关关系,即并购收益越低,公司在并购完成后第一、二年进行正向盈余管理的程度越高;盈余管理与并购收益对高管薪酬的变动存在着相互替代的关系,即并购收益越低,盈余管理对促进高管薪酬增长的影响越大。本文的研究丰富了盈余管理和公司并购的理论内涵,并为监管部门以及投资者的决策提供了重要的经验证据。     

投资者情绪异质性能影响股价崩盘风险吗?

本文选取1999—2016年沪深A股市场交易数据以及与投资者情绪相关的数据,从市场层面研究了股价崩盘风险与投资者情绪之间的关系。实证研究发现,投资者情绪是股价崩盘风险的单向格兰杰原因,且股价崩盘风险往往要滞后于投资者情绪3期左右。进一步研究表明,投资者情绪对股价崩盘风险具有非对称性影响,即乐观情绪对崩盘风险具有显著影响,而悲观情绪对崩盘风险影响不显著。     

Corporate Disclosure Policy and the Informativeness of Stock Prices

We examine the association between voluntary corporate disclosure and the informativeness of stock prices. We measure corporate disclosure using the AIMR-FAF annual corporate disclosure ratings. We define price informativeness by the association between current stock returns and future earnings changes: more informative stock price changes contain more information about future earnings changes. To measure this association, we regress current returns against (current and) future earnings changes. The aggregated coefficient on the future earnings changes, which we refer to as the future ERC, is our measure of informativeness (association).We hypothesize and find that greater disclosure is associated with stock prices that are more informative about future earnings (i.e., higher future ERC). These results provide empirical support for the widely held, but heretofore empirically undocumented, belief that greater disclosure provides information benefits to investors.     

Making honest men of them: Institutional investors,financial reporting,and the appointment of female directors to all-male boards

In this paper, we theorize that dedicated institutional investors are more likely than transient institutional investors to appoint female directors to investee firms with all-male boards, particularly those with high opacity. We conjecture that dedicated investors appoint female directors as a governance mechanism to improve the financial reporting quality of these investee firms. Specifically, we find that through the appointment of female directors, dedicated institutional investors trigger the release of stockpiled negative accounting information, thereby increasing the likelihood of a stock price crash risk. We also show that dedicated investors, through the appointment of female directors, improve investee firms' corporate disclosure environment by decreasing earnings management. Finally, we find that through continued service on investee firms' boards, female directors reduce the future likelihood of a stock price crash.     

Rumors in the sky: Corporate rumors and stock price synchronicity

Using hand-collected rumor clarification announcements from Chinese listed firms to identify corporate rumors, we find that rumored firms have lower stock price synchronicity (R²) than do firms without rumors. Channel analyses reveal that rumors reduce stock price synchronicity through elevating investor sentiment rather than stimulating informed trading. Additionally, the negative association between corporate rumors and stock price synchronicity is more evident among firms with more individual investors and higher information opacity. Moreover, corporate rumors are associated with higher analyst forecast errors and forecast dispersion. Overall, our evidence suggests that corporate rumors reduce stock price synchronicity by increasing investor irrationality.     

Investor sentiment and management earnings forecast bias

This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers’ annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers’ annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low‐sentiment periods than during normal‐sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low‐sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment‐related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relationship between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

From Stock Selection to Portfolio Alpha Generation: The Role of Fundamental Analysis

In this roundtable sponsored by Columbia Business School's Center for Excellence in Accounting Research and Security Analysis, a group of successful investors discuss their approaches and methods. A common saying among financial economists is that stock prices are set not by the average investor, but “at the margin” by the most sophisticated and influential investors. The intent of this roundtable is to furnish a portrait of such “marginal” investors, one that turns out to be quite different from the quarterly earnings‐driven, momentum traders often depicted by the media and deplored by corporate executives. In response to the common charge of short termism leveled by corporate managers, most of the investors at the table claimed to take large, multi‐year positions in companies they believed to be well‐managed, but temporarily undervalued. Instead of being attracted to earnings momentum, and rather than simply capitalizing current earnings at industry‐wide multiples to arrive at price targets, the analysis of these investors begins with a “deep dive” into a company's financials, which is often reinforced by primary research—visits with management, customers, suppliers. The aim of such research is to identify, well before the broad market does, companies that promise to earn consistently high and sustainable returns on invested capital.     

How do the content,format, and tone of Twitter-based corporate disclosure vary depending on earnings performance?

Using 86,891 tweets, from the official corporate Twitter accounts of 715 unique firms, this study examines whether and how managers strategically attract and distract investors’ attention from corporate news through Twitter. We find that firms with good earnings news use Twitter to post more earnings-related information directly, whereas firms with bad earnings news post more non-earnings-related information on Twitter. We further find that depending on earnings performance firms strategically choose the format of tweets (qualitative or quantitative) and the tone of earnings tweets (positive or negative) to attract investors’ attention to good news or distract investors’ attention from bad news. Our results are robust to difference-in-differences (DID), alternative sample periods, and different variable specifications. Our findings provide empirical evidence for investors and regulators regarding current practices in corporate information on Twitter.     

Do institutional investors reinforce or reduce agency problems? Earnings management and the post-IPO performance

This study investigates the dual roles of institutional investors in earnings management during initial public offerings (IPOs). Research suggests that institutional investors play a monitoring role in the corporate governance of firms by mitigating earnings management to reduce agency problems. However, institutional investors have incentives to opportunistically maximize their wealth by manipulating earnings when firms engage in IPOs. Results suggest that institutional investors facilitate accrual-based earnings management before IPOs but restrain earnings management after their issuance. We also find that firms with high institutional ownership experience superior post-IPO stock returns and operating performance, thereby suggesting that the capital market positively prices the monitoring function of institutional investors after IPOs, and the performance of these firms is improved. Our results are robust to controlling the endogeneity problem of institutional investors and further identifying active institutional investors.     

Exploring the relationship between investor sentiment and price volatility

By performing Grey relation analysis, this study elucidates the relationship between investor sentiment and price volatility in the Taiwanese stock market. A sequential relationship is identified between investor sentiment and price volatility, and ranked according to order of importance. Analytical results show that short sales volumes may be an individual leading indicator useful in observing the effects of sentiment on price volatility, followed by open interest put/call ratios and trading volumes, and buy/sell orders. Institutional investors are related, to a lesser extent, to price volatility and sentiment. Qualified foreign institutional investors, or more rational investors, are the least influenced by price volatility, followed by securities investment trust companies and dealers. TAIEX options exert the strongest influence on sentiment during the study period, making them a valuable reference for gauging price volatility.