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1.
《中国金融》2012,(20):88
本书是国家自然科学基金项目《我国商业银行违约模型与经济资本配置研究》课题组的金融学前沿研究成果,在2012年国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部组织的项目绩效评估会上,彭建刚教授主持的这一研究项目被评为优秀。《商业银行经济资本管理研究》一书依托现代金融学前沿理论和数学模型方法,以《巴塞尔资本协议II》和《巴塞尔资本协议III》为背景,独创性地提出并构建了适合我国商业银行的违约概率测算方法;对CreditRisk+模型的频带划分方法作了创新性的设计,采用此方法,各商业银行总行和分支机构可进行贷款组合非预期损失的在线实时计量,  相似文献   

2.
基于风险溢价的商业银行贷款定价方法   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
基于简化法信用风险定价模型的思想,在巴塞尔新资本协议的框架下,就每笔贷款引入预期违约率和违约挽回率,设计了一类基于风险溢价的商业银行贷款定价方法,并推导出贷款风险溢价的具体表达式。该方法具有较强的实用性和可操作性。最后,给出的实例表明所提出方法的应用价值,同时通过对比分析,揭示了商业银行传统贷款定价方法的不足。  相似文献   

3.
预期信用损失模型是一项新的贷款损失准备计提方法,对其经济后果的评估非常重要。关于预期信用损失模型的实施对我国商业银行资本计提的具体影响,目前还缺乏深入系统的研究。本文结合我国50家上市商业银行的公开数据,从监管资本、会计损益和资本计提前瞻性的角度分析了预期信用损失模型对我国商业银行资本计提的影响。研究结果表明:总体影响上,商业银行的贷款损失准备计提金额显著增加,利润波动增强,对资本充足率带来一定冲击;从不同特征商业银行看,小型商业银行、使用权重法商业银行、城市商业银行和H股上市商业银行受到的影响更为严重;从资本计提的前瞻性看,贷款损失准备的前瞻性得到加强,顺周期性效应得到一定程度缓解,但并不能完全消除。  相似文献   

4.
随着个人住房抵押贷款的快速发展,我国商业银行个人住房贷款业务所聚集的潜在风险正日益凸现.本文借鉴国内外最新研究成果,从防范风险、提高商业银行资金利用效率的角度,应用Credit metric风险度量模型对采集数据进行度量研究,重点测量了商业银行个人住房抵押贷款所面临的非预期损失,得到了各信用等级抵押贷款的风险价值以及商业银行该为此贷款提取的经济资本,并提出了建立更加科学合理的经济资本缓冲制度的对策建议.  相似文献   

5.
本文运用了Merton结构化模型对我国商业银行住宅抵押贷款信用风险进行了实证研究,研究显示,无风险利率与抵押率比住房价格波动率对预期损失有更大的影响。该研究对我国商业银行加强信用风险管理有一定的实践意义。  相似文献   

6.
本文运用了Merton结构化模型对我国商业银行住宅抵押贷款信用风险进行了实证研究,研究显示,无风险利率与抵押率比住房价格波动率对预期损失有更大的影响。该研究对我国商业银行加强信用风险管理有一定的实践意义。  相似文献   

7.
本文在分析指出国内对于转轨时期我国商业银行信用风险识别和违约评估方法研究所存在的主要缺陷基础上,构建了适用于我国商业银行的信用风险评估模型,并随机选取了能代表整体信贷资产特征的某商业银行1249个贷款样本资料,对模型的有效性进行了实证检验。结果证明本文所建立的模型在度量借款人信用风险方面具有稳定性和有效性。最后,本文对于我国商业银行使用信用风险内部评级法给出了相关政策建议。  相似文献   

8.
黄大海 《上海金融》2006,(10):55-58
本文在对国外银行贷款回收率研究进行总结的基础上,对违约贷款回收率的影响因素、信用风险模型中违约回收率的建模进行了分析,并对商业银行进行违约贷款回收率的建模提出了建议。  相似文献   

9.
信用风险是指客户违约或其信用质量发生变化可能给银行带来的损失,它是对银行经营影响最大的风险。信用风险的预期损失和非预期损失,是现代信用风险计量方法的核心内容,本刊将分两期予以分别介绍  相似文献   

10.
黄纪宪  顾柳柳 《金融论坛》2014,(5):46-51,57
本文从商业银行贷款定价的基本理论、西方银行的贷款定价实践出发,结合中国实际,提出基于RAROC的定价思路,并从信用风险和客户回报等方面对定价模型进行改进,构建基于客户关系的RAROC定价模型;通过某行贷款数据的实证分析,比较基于RAROC的模型定价与某行的实际定价。结果表明,基于RAROC的定价模型考虑到了预期损失与非预期损失对贷款的影响,能反映银行的资本成本、风险成本、资金成本和经营成本等;基于RAROC的定价模型有助于银行优化资本管理,提高贷款收益,提高绩效考核科学性,应对市场竞争。  相似文献   

11.
Despite the manifold utilities of monitoring credit default rates, little attention is usually devoted to the underlying default definition. This paper proposes working simultaneously with different default severities, related to several past-due ranges, by means of transition matrices (to be named default matrices). In this way, default, as well as recovery, is depicted in a multidimensional flow, with the purpose of avoiding missing relevant information. The challenge lies on performing comparisons between default matrices, for which new metrics are proposed. In this paper, default matrices are built to measure consumer credit delinquency at four large Brazilian banks, allowing a detailed comparison of their credit migration experiences. The study is also able to draw relevant information from comparisons between estimations techniques (discrete and survival approaches) and between default criteria.  相似文献   

12.
Using a newly developed model, this paper investigates the cyclical behavior of bond risk premia. It is shown that cyclical variability may result simply from the way risk premia are calculated and does not depend on changes over the business cycle in probability of default, investors' attitudes toward risk or institutional behavior. In addition, expectations concerning the likely time of default are shown to be a potential source of cyclical variability and to imply a specific cyclical pattern of risk premia.  相似文献   

13.
Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We model 1927–1997 US business failure rates using an unobserved components time series model. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. We also detect significant longer term movements in default rates and default correlations. In a multi-year backtest experiment we show that accommodation of default rate dynamics has important consequences for credit risk capitalization requirements. Static or myopic variants of credit portfolio models miss significant periods of credit risk accumulation. Empirically congruent dynamic models by contrast provide more timely warning signals of credit risk build-up. In this way they may mitigate some of the pro-cyclicality concerns.  相似文献   

14.
Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?   总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12  
This article provides an empirical decomposition of the default,liquidity, and tax factors that determine expected corporatebond returns. In particular, the risk premium associated witha default event is estimated. The intensity-based model is estimatedusing bond price data for 104 US firms and historical defaultrates. Significant risk premia on common intensity factors andimportant tax and liquidity effects are found. These componentsgo a long way towards explaining the level of expected corporatebond returns. Adding a positive default event risk premium helpsto explain the remaining error, although this premium cannotbe estimated with high statistical precision.  相似文献   

15.
Structural models of credit risk are known to present both vanishing spreads at very short maturities and a poor spread fit over longer maturities. The former shortcoming, which is due to the diffusive behaviour assumed for asset values, can be circumvented by considering discontinuous asset prices. In this paper the authors resort to a pure jump process of the Variance-Gamma type. First the authors calibrate the corresponding Merton type structural model to single-name data for the DJ CDX.NA.IG and CDX.NA.HY components. By so doing, they show that it also circumvents the diffusive structural models difficulties over longer horizons. Particularly, it corrects for the underprediction of low-risk spreads and the overprediction of high-risk ones. Then the authors extend the model to joint default, resorting to a recent formulation of the VG multivariate model and without superimposing a copula choice. They fit default correlation for a sample of CDX.NA names, using equity correlation. The main advantage of our joint model, with respect to the existing non-diffusive ones, is that it allows full calibration without the equicorrelation assumption, but still in a parsimonious way. As an example of the default assessments which the calibrated model can provide, the authors price an FtD swap.  相似文献   

16.
The development of organized markets for speculative-grade corporate debt has provided financial researchers with an opportunity to examine the pricing of default risk. By incorporating previous work on the default experience of low-rated corporate debt, this paper presents an introduction to risk-neutral models of risky-bond pricing and uses these to examine the relationship between the default premium embodied in bond yields and actual default rates. The contribution of macroeconomic information to the default premium is also examined. The author finds that holders of low-grade bonds have, on average, been compensated for losses due to default.  相似文献   

17.
During financial turmoil, increases in risk lead to higher default, foreclosure, and fire sales. This paper introduces a costly liquidation process for foreclosed collateral and pro-cyclical recovery rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the financial accelerator. Links between endogenous recovery rates, risk premia, and default risk generate a liquidity spiral, magnifying financial accelerator effects. We illustrate how collateral liquidation and monetary policy alter the real impact of financial shocks operating through macro-financial linkages; and the way a government subsidy on collateral liquidity and required liquidity buffers can help dampen the liquidity spiral by shoring up recovery rates.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper we study the implications of the absence of Behavioral arbitrage opportunities (BAO) in a two period incomplete markets economy where default is allowed but there are collateral requirements and utility penalties due to uncertainty on deliveries. We obtain a modified version of the Fundamental Theorem of asset pricing with default when deliveries are defined in terms of units of account, as in Dubey et al. (1995), and when deliveries are defined as bundles of goods, as in Dubey et al. (2005). Also, we establish that independent of the way that we define deliveries, absence of BAO is compatible with the existence of equilibrium.  相似文献   

19.
为防范涉农贷款违约风险,部分农村信用联社积极探索,创新出债权文书公证方式、以人身险保险金担保债权等担保方式,以确保债权得到切实维护.这些新担保方式一定程度上增加了农村贷款供给,但存在法律风险.本文着重对这些新措施、新方法的合法性及有效性进行了探讨.  相似文献   

20.
刘海明  步晓宁 《金融研究》2022,501(3):79-95
不同于以往从外部因素的角度关注民营企业债务问题,本文从企业自身行为出发分析了民企债务违约是否由内因驱动。具体地,本文考察了短贷长投和多元化经营对民营企业债务违约的影响。结果发现,总体上短贷长投以及多元化程度提高了民企债务违约的可能性。从传导机制上看,短贷长投和多元化降低了企业的盈利水平、提高了过度负债、增加了代理成本,并通过以上三个渠道提高了企业债务违约的可能性。从异质性结果来看,信贷紧缩会加大短贷长投对债务违约的促进作用。对于政府支持的行业而言,短贷长投和多元化引发的债务违约问题更严重。最后,更多的短贷长投和多元化在决策得当情况下不会引发债务违约风险。本文的结果表明,民营企业债务违约主要是由内因驱动,即由企业在“求大”“上层次”的心理下实施的粗放式发展模式驱动。本文对于追溯民企违约的根源、精准施策进而更好地支持民企发展具有一定的启示。  相似文献   

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