外资流入房地产业的负面影响及政策建议

本文通过分析近年来江苏省房地产市场外资流入的特点以及流入快速增长的原因,指出外资加速流入房地产行业,无论是对于国家当前的房地产市场调控,还是外汇资金跨境流动管理都存在明显的负面影响,并提出从规范外资准入、抑制非居民房地产投资需求、加强外资流动监测和汇兑管理等多方面促进房地产业合理利用外资的政策建议。     

土耳其投资与经贸风险分析报告

进入21世纪以来,随着土耳其政局日趋稳定,经济形势逐渐好转,投资环境逐步得到改善,近年来外国直接投资增长较快,FDI流入量急剧增加,对经济增长的拉动作用日渐显著。2002年,土耳其FDI流入量仅11．4亿美元,占GDP的比重为0．6％。2004年,上升为28．8亿美元,占GDP的比重为1．0％。2006年,土耳其外国直接投资额达201．2亿美元,占GDP的比重达5．0％。土耳其外资流入存量增长明显。2002年,外资流入累计存量为187．9亿美元,2005年增至644．0亿美元,2006年则有843．2亿美元。2005～2006年,外商直接投资主要流向土耳其银行业和电信业。     

从量化到定性：改进个人外汇收入管理模式的思考

规范和完善个人外汇资金流入，防范非法资金流动，不能简单地根据量化标准，通过设置多重审批环节来实现管理目的．应逐步构建起对个人外汇资金流入的定性监管模武。即在正确区分外汇流入资金性质的基础上，将管理重点放在外汇资金流入的关键环节和事后的流向跟踪上，使资金流入后的活动得到有效监控。     

拨云雾 寻迷踪——外商投资企业资本金结汇案例透析

当前,在人民币单边升值、中美利差倒挂等因素的影响下,异常外汇资金可能利用现行监管漏洞,通过不同渠道涌入我国。由于外商投资企业的审批环节相对简单,审核材料容易提供,部分外资进入后并未开展正常的生产经营,而是将资本金结汇后流入其他领域,特别是流入房地产和股市等国家严控的热点领域。资本金结汇使用的灵活性和难以监测性以及地方政府不加区分地鼓励引入外资政策,为异常资金流入打开了方便之门。本文特别邀请一线外汇管理工作者对三宗资本金结汇典型案例进行分析,试图寻找解决之道。     

拨云雾 寻迷踪——外商投资企业资本金结汇案例透析：增资扩股“曲线结汇”

当前，在人民币单边升值、中美利差倒挂等因素的影响下，异常外汇资金可能利用现行监管漏洞，通过不同渠道涌入我国。由于外商投资企业的审批环节相对简单，审核材料容易提供，部分外资进入后并未开展正常的生产经营，而是将资本金结汇后流入其他领域。特别是流入房地产和股市等国家严控的热点领域，资本金结汇使用的灵活性和难以监测性以及地方政府不加区分地鼓励引入外资政策，为异常资金流入打开了方便之门。本文特别邀请一线外汇管理工作者对三宗资本金结汇典型案例进行分析，试图寻找解决之道。     

返程投资管理主旋律：透明 公平 秩序——评《关于外国投资者并购境内企业的规定》

根据联合国贸发会议《世界投资报告》统计，我国跨国并购额2000年为22，5亿美元，占当年我国吸收外商直接投资额407．2亿美元的5．5％I2004年为67．6亿美元，占当年外商直接投资额606．3亿美元的11％。2005年和今年上半年我国外资并购发展加速，外资并购在外商直接投资中所占比重进一步上升。但是，有研究人员指出：在中国发生的外资并购中，有相当部分是由境内居民最终控制的“返程投资”，即由国内资本通过各种渠道流出境外再返回境内投资形成的外资企业。2004年6月，亚洲开发银行发布了一份报告，指出我国返程投资规模被低估了，应该是我国对外发布FDI流入规模的26％3054％，平均规模为约40％。     

加拿大投资与经贸风险分析报告

投资状况 外国直接投资状况 总体而言，加拿大对外资的进入持开放态度。透明与完善的规则，税收等方面的鼓励措施，高效的市场与管理等因素都使外部资金不断流入加拿大市场。2007年全球外国直接投资流入量经过四年的连续增长后再增30％。在全球外资接受国中，加拿大位列第四。2007年加拿大的外国直接投资为1086．6亿美元。2008年受全球外国直接投资下降影响，加拿大的外国直接投资也有所下降，为459．3亿美元。     

境外流入外汇对我省资金规模影响的思考

境外流入外汇对我省资金规模影响的思考江涛，万天梯一、境外外汇资金流入的形式境外外汇资金流入弥补了国内资金不足，促进我省经济建设发展起了积极的作用。流入我省境外外汇的形式，大体分为：直接投资和间接投资。１、直接投资的主要形式是外商投入外汇调剂成人民币的...     

宏观调控下跨境资金流入的变化及影响

2002年以来，重庆市外资流入呈不断攀升和加速的趋势。仅2004年1-8月，跨境资金流入18．0亿美元，同比增长49．08％；顺差4．74亿美元，同比增长12．47％。更为突出的是，在2004年实施宏观调控过程中，新出台的《境内外资银行外债管理办法》施行前过渡期的6月，当月跨境资金流入无论从速度上、数量上，还是结汇比例上均达到了近年的最大值，体现出抢抓政策便利的强烈意愿。     

须强化结汇资金流向监管

外汇资金流入与结汇资金流向相互联系、源流相依,外汇管理部门在加强外汇资金流入监管的同时,也要强化结汇资金流向监管。     

The structure of the global reinsurance market: An analysis of efficiency,scale, and scope

We estimate economies of scale and scope as well as cost and revenue efficiency to explain the structure of the global reinsurance market, where large reinsurers dominate but both diversified and specialized reinsurers are competitive. The costs and benefits of size and product diversification are particularly relevant to the reinsurance industry, as risk diversification is central to the industry's business model. We find that reinsurers with total assets less than USD 2.9 billion exhibit scale economies, while those with total assets greater than USD 15.5 billion do not. Large reinsurers are characterized by high cost efficiency, while small reinsurers exhibit superior efficiency only when specialized. Large reinsurers also exhibit revenue scope economies when operating both life and nonlife reinsurance. Moreover, the evidence is in line with the efficient structure hypothesis: cost-efficient reinsurers can charge lower prices without sacrificing profitability.     

黄永忠 守门人的智慧

作为磐石基金的全球合伙人,黄永忠掌管着20亿美元的亚洲基金,是众多基金追捧的"出资人"。黄永忠凭借其敏锐的洞察力和独特的判断力,加上对于亚洲市场的了解,令这支20年前远渡重洋的FOF基金在中国的业务如鱼得水。     

Particulate matter air pollution control programs in Japan — an analysis of cost savings in the absence of future remediation

The objectives of this study were to assess avoided economic costs (or anticipated ‘benefits’) of not implementing new environmental policies for particulate matter (PM) in Japan and compare these future benefits to estimates of future health risks developed in a separate analysis. The estimates for the benefits of avoided PM pollution control in the year 2010 were (1) $27 billion USD for stationary source controls, (2) $2.1 billion to $3.3 billion USD for diesel motor vehicle controls, (3) $41 million USD for governmental employee salaries, (4) $470 million USD for governmental financial assistance, (5) $510 million USD for special diesel vehicle control measures in Tokyo, and (6) $31 billion USD for total costs.

Using human health and productivity risks, calculated in a separate study to be $56 billion USD, the best net ratio of benefits to costs was 1.8 to 1. Inexpensive control options include road watering or paving for unpaved dirt roads and road vacuuming for paved roads. Intermediate options include differential road pricing, retrofitting diesel particulate filters, and reformulating diesel fuel. High cost options include adding particulate controls, such as wet scrubbers, baghouses, and electrostatic precipitators on uncontrolled stationary sources.     

Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations

This paper examines the effects of the foreign exchange market interventions by the Bank of Japan on the ex ante correlations between the JPY/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD exchange rates. The correlation estimates used in the analysis are derived from the market prices of OTC currency options. The results show that central bank interventions significantly affect the market expectations about future exchange rate co-movements. In particular, we find that interventions tend to temporarily increase the ex ante correlations among the major exchange rates. However, our results also suggest that intervention episodes are associated with lower-than-average levels of exchange rate correlations.     

论外汇储备注资国有商业银行对人民币升值压力的影响

目前国内学者对于外汇储备注资国有商业银行能否缓解人民币升值压力存在分歧.笔者认为其关键在于这部分外汇资本金能否再次进入外汇市场,形成美元超额供给.本文讨论了国家不限制和限制这450亿美元资本金进入外汇市场两种情况下外汇储备注资对人民币升值压力的影响,通过分析得出结论:外汇储备注资国有商业银行不仅不会缓解反而会加剧人民币升值压力.在人民币升值问题非常敏感的今天,金融当局应采取相应措施,缓解人民币升值压力.     

Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences

Expanding the currency investment universe makes a lot of sense from a diversification point of view. Nevertheless, 60% of the total foreign exchange turnover is still only traded in three currency pairs (USD/EUR, USD/JPY and USD/GBP). The share of trading in local currencies in emerging markets is only around 5%. This can be explained by the fact that some currency managers fear investing in emerging market currencies. Many believe that political risk is the most dominant driver in these markets and that traditional investment rules do not work. In this paper, I apply four technical trading strategies for the developed market currencies and for the most traded emerging market currencies. The empirical results show some striking differences. They suggest that trend-following rules work better for emerging market currencies, while carry trading strategies perform better across developed market currencies. Nevertheless, it seems that conventional techniques could be successfully applied to both developed and emerging market currencies. I conclude that currency managers should not be afraid to diversify into emerging market currencies. They should, however, adjust their trading style accordingly.     

The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets

This study considers the effects of the relative size of hedger and speculator open interests and the potential impact of implementing position limits on the price discovery process in both JPY–USD and EUR–USD futures markets. Hedging trading exerts a negative impact, regardless of its size, on price discovery in futures markets. Hedgers are less likely to be information motivated, so their trading uniformly delays the price discovery process. However, there is a positive and nonlinear impact of speculators’ trade size on price discovery, the contribution of which depends on the relative size of the speculative open interest. Contrary to conventional wisdom among regulators, speculative trading does not harm the market in terms of market efficiency; as long as the percentage of speculators’ open interest is below an endogenously determined threshold (approximately 20% for EUR–USD and 16.3% for JPY–USD), speculative trading even improves futures market efficiency.     

外国企业来我国上市的必要性及其法律准备

中外股市都存在着三大定理,即"会有越来越多的公司上市"、"会有越来越多的资金入市"和"牛市总比熊市长"。这给我们的启迪是:要使越来越多的公司上市以扩大供给,要使越来越多的资金入市以扩大需求。为使越来越多的公司上市以扩大供给,为了建立中国的国际金融中心,就应该允许外国企业来我国上市。未来牛市格局为外国企业来我国上市提供了经济上的可行性,为此,我国要做好一系列的法律准备,包括制定专门的规范性文件,规定外国企业境内首次公开发行并上市的各种条件和程序;对外国企业在我国境内发行证券实行注册制;完善保护投资者的法律制度等。     

2010年1月银行间市场运行报告

2010年1月份，银行间外汇、货币、债券、利率和汇率衍生品市场整体运行平稳：短期货币市场利率先抑后扬，Shibor各期限品种利率均有不同程度的增加；银行间国债指数小幅上升；人民币对美元汇率中间价与上月末相比升值0．02％，掉期价格显示人民币对美元升值预期略有减弱。     

2010年2月银行间市场运行报告

2010年2月份，银行间货币、外汇、债券、利率和汇率衍生品市场平稳运行，主要特点是：短期货币市场利率先扬后抑，短端Shibor各期限品种涨跌不一，中长端Shibor普遍上扬；银行间国债指数继续上升；人民币对美元汇率中间价与上月末相比升值0．001％，掉期价格显示人民币对美元升值预期有所减弱。