韩国的通货膨胀目标制及其对中国的启示

从上个世纪90年代初开始，不少发达国家和新兴市场国家开始采用通货膨胀目标制作为货币政策，通胀目标制成为货币政策领域最受人关注的焦点。而最近一些受到金融危机冲击的亚洲国家也纷纷开始采用通胀目标制(Inflation Targeting Regime)作为本国的货币政策框架。本文选取韩国作为样本，分析了韩国采用该制度的内外两方面的原因，详细介绍了韩国通胀目标制的制度设计，实证检验了该政策的效果，并分析了我国实施通胀目标制的可行性。     

全球货币政策五大趋势

2008年全球金融危机后,全球经济陷入了低增长、低通胀、低利率的“三低”状态,主要发达经济体纷纷引入非常规货币政策。新冠疫情冲击下,货币政策框架面临进一步转型压力。目前,全球货币政策呈现出一系列新的趋势,包括常规货币政策传导机制逐渐失效、非常规货币政策常态化、货币政策的目标框架正在调整、央行自主性面临挑战、技术进步对货币政策的影响加大等。     

澳大利亚实施通胀目标制的经验与启示

澳大利亚是世界上实施通胀目标制的国家之一。其通胀目标制有很多鲜明的特点,实施效果也较为明显。澳大利亚实施通胀目标制的成功经验对我国货币政策的框架选择、决策实施以及中央银行的透明度和独立性有一定的借鉴意义。     

国际金融危机后对通胀目标制的反思

通货膨胀目标制是20世纪90年代兴起的货币政策制度,越来越多的国家采用这种制度并取得了良好效果.虽然2007年爆发的全球金融危机使通胀目标制受到了一定的冲击,但由于其具有较高的政策透明度和灵活性,具有很强的实用性和影响力,为完善我国的货币政策制度提供了一个有益的参考框架.     

通货膨胀目标制的特点及借鉴意义

金融创新和金融全球化，对传统的货币政策中介变量提出了挑战。为提高货币政策的有效性，20世纪90年代以来，许多国家对货币政策框架进行了调整，放弃中介目标，直接钉住通货膨胀目标，由此产生了通货膨胀目标制我国货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标目前尚具合理性，但应借鉴通货膨胀目标制的有关做法，对现行的货币政策操作加以完善。     

不同类型通胀目标制:框架划分及其转型规律

通货膨胀目标制是指中央银行直接确定和公布其通货膨胀目标,并以此规划货币政策操作的政策制度.按照央行对通胀目标承诺的清晰度及其公信力的差异,可将该制度框架划分为三种类型：标准型、混合型和初始型.对不同类型的制度框架进行分析研究,可以为从一种框架向另一种框架转型提供政策指南.本文借助于对不同类型通胀目标制之间转型的实证分析,尝试总结归纳出转型过程中所存在的一般规律,为中国货币政策制度框架未来的改革提供一些国际经验.     

美联储百年沧桑:目标、框架与可信度

在美联储成立百年之际,现任美联储主席伯南克系统回顾了过去100年中美联储在政策目标、政策框架、可信度和沟通方面的变革。成立初期,美联储以维护金融稳定为目标的政策框架主要受实质票据学说和金本位制度的影响。大萧条时期,促进就业和价格稳定逐渐成为美联储的新目标。大通胀和大通缩时期,获得货币政策独立性的美联储控制通胀的能力逐步成熟。大稳健时期,货币政策目标和框架更加清晰,货币政策透明度逐渐提高。金融危机以来,维持金融稳定上升到与货币政策同等重要的位置,货币政策透明度明显改善,预期管理日益重要。未来,中央银行的理念和实践还将不断变革。     

通货膨胀目标制——货币政策框架发展的新趋势

一、通货膨胀目标制的理论沿革 　　按照Bernanke和Mishkin(1997)的观点,通货膨胀目标制不是一条单一的政策规则,而是一个政策框架,在此框架下,中央银行(货币当局)直接以通货膨胀为目标,以此规划货币政策操作.该货币政策框架本身包含一个中介目标:通胀预测 (forecast,infaltion)(Svensson,1997).……     

在低利率时代，中央银行如何促进经济可持续发展?

回顾二战以来的美国经济发展史可以发现,美联储掌握了有效的货币政策工具以应对通胀,也将持续警惕金融风险。当前面对的挑战是如何运用货币政策维持经济可持续增长。为此美联储保持对全球经济放缓、贸易政策的不确定性、通胀低迷的密切监测,加强预期引导,并对货币政策策略、工具和沟通方式等进行公开评估。     

稳定公众通胀预期的优选策略:通货膨胀目标制——基于制度特征的分析与借鉴

目前,我国通货膨胀预期压力日益加大,中央银行的货币政策调控面临巨大的挑战,作为西方国家成功实践的通货膨胀目标制,在实现低而稳定的通货膨胀预期方面取得了明显的成效.本文分析了通货膨胀目标制在稳定通胀预期方面的制度特征,结合我国实施通胀目标制所面临的货币政策困境,提出了增强中央银行的独立性与可信度、以通货膨胀目标制作为单一名义锚、建立合理的通货膨胀目标区间、采用核心消费价格指数、增强信息披露机制、完善监测指标体系等政策建议.     

从通货膨胀目标制看货币政策透明度建设

近年来，通货膨胀目标制已成为一种新的货币政策框架，而通货膨胀目标制的显著优点在于能通过增强货币政策的透明度，提高政策的可信度，进而提高货币政策的有效性。提高货币政策的透明度正在成为一种国际趋势。因此．本文通过借鉴实施通货膨胀目标制的西方发达国家的成功经验，探讨我国应如何加强货币政策透明度的建设，提高货币政策有效性。     

Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis

This lecture examines how the recent global financial crisis changes our thinking about how monetary policy should be conducted. It starts with a discussion of the science and practice of monetary policy before the crisis and then uses the lessons from the crisis to argue how the practice of monetary policy should be rethought along six dimensions: flexible inflation targeting, response to asset price bubbles, dichotomy between monetary policy and financial stability policy, risk management and gradualism, fiscal dominance, and forward guidance.     

The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone

This paper examines the real effects of financial stress in the Euro-zone, using two identification strategies based on a Bayesian Structural VAR and a Sign-Restriction VAR. As expansionary monetary policy has been blamed to have fuelled asset price bubble, it is important to assess the macroeconomic impact of both a financial stress shock and a monetary policy shock. We find that unexpected variation in financial stress conditions plays an important role in explaining output fluctuations and, therefore, demands an aggressive response by the monetary authority to stabilize output. This, in turn, indicates a preference shift from inflation targeting. We also show that a monetary policy contraction strongly deteriorates financial stress conditions. As a result, rapid credit growth due to a long period of low interest rates possibly contributed to an increase in asset prices and encouraged unsustainable demand growth as observed in the recent financial crisis.     

四十年来中央银行的研究进展及中国的实践

改革开放四十年来,中国金融体系从无到有,发生了翻天覆地的变化,目前已基本建成了与中国特色社会主义市场经济相适应、具有活力和国际竞争力的现代金融体系。这四十年,现代货币经济学和全球中央银行政策实践也发生了深刻变革。作为全球最大的新兴发展加转轨经济体的中央银行,中国人民银行面临的现实约束条件更加复杂,央行的研究为推动中国金融体系发展和央行科学决策提供了可靠支撑,既与世界同步,也具有自己的鲜明特征。本文以世界经济十年左右的周期波动及与之相伴随的货币经济学理论进展和中央银行政策变迁为主线,总结了四十年来中央银行的研究进展和中国经验,旨在进一步推动中央银行的理论研究,更好地促进金融高质量发展。     

Inflation Targeting,Fiscal Policy,and the Exchange Rate Regime

Until recently, Turkey’s economy was characterized by high inflation, undisciplined public finance management, and a fragile banking system and experienced multiple economic crises. After the economy was hit by another crisis in 2001, the central bank became independent, adopted inflation targeting as the monetary policy framework, and implemented reforms to adopt a more stringent fiscal policy. Inflation rates decreased to single-digit levels within 3 years after the independence of the central bank. This article analyzes the end of the high inflation period in the context of monetary and fiscal policy interactions within a Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in which monetary and fiscal policies are allowed to switch between different regimes.     

Monetary Policy Implementation: Making Better and More Consistent Use of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

Since December 2015, the Federal Reserve has operated a new “floor system” in which it brings about desired changes in its targeted federal funds rate by managing the interest rate it pays on bank reserves and other short‐term liabilities. The design of this new system reflects the tendency of Fed officials to view monetary policy as affecting the economy through Keynesian” interest rate channels. From this Keynesian perspective, policy actions that change the size of the balance sheet are seen as tools for influencing credit market conditions that operate in addition to and independently of the Fed's monetary policy stance. The alternative monetarist framework proposed by the author views monetary policy and its effects as operating through the interaction between money supply and demand. Use of this framework makes clear that, even under a floor system, monetary policy actions designed to affect the aggregate price level and the rate of inflation must be accompanied sooner or later by traditional open market operations that have implications for the size and composition of the Fed's balance sheet. Use of the monetarist framework also underscores the likelihood that the Fed, by paying interest on reserves, has unknowingly contributed to the restrictiveness of its own monetary policies since the financial crisis, a period during which inflation has run consistently below target. More generally, the monetarist framework downplays the importance of the zero lower interest rate bound and suggests that monetary policy could be conducted more effectively by adopting and adhering to a consistent, rule‐like manner during good times and bad.     

对货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架内在逻辑的思考

本轮国际金融危机以来,金融稳定在中央银行政策目标中的重要性再次得到强化。随着具有顺周期波动特征的金融市场和金融资产规模显著增大,金融管理政策需要更加关注金融稳定和系统性风险问题,货币稳定和金融稳定“双目标”的重要性凸显出来。政策目标的变化相应要求优化和完善政策工具箱,需要健全宏观审慎政策框架作为应对系统性风险的工具,并与货币政策相互配合,形成由货币政策和宏观审慎政策“双支柱”支撑起“双目标”的基本框架,共同维护好货币稳定和金融稳定。在此框架中,货币政策和宏观审慎政策都不可或缺,须相互补充,形成合力,产生“一加一大于二”的政策效应增进效果。健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架,有利于把经济周期和金融周期更好地结合起来,把维护经济稳定与促进金融稳定更好地结合起来。下一阶段应进一步健全宏观审慎政策框架,并完善货币政策和宏观审慎政策协调配合的体制机制。     

Self-oriented monetary policy,global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows

This paper explores the nature of macroeconomic spillovers from advanced economies to emerging market economies (EMEs) and the consequences for independent use of monetary policy in EMEs. We first empirically document that a US contractionary monetary policy shock leads a retrenchment in EME capital flows, a fall in EME GDP, and an exchange rate depreciation. We construct a theoretical model that can help to account for these findings. In the model, macroeconomic spillovers may be exacerbated by financial frictions. Absent financial frictions, international spillovers are minor, and an inflation targeting rule represents an effective policy for the EME. With frictions in financial intermediation, however, spillovers are substantially magnified, and an inflation targeting rule has little advantage over an exchange rate peg. However, an optimal monetary policy markedly improves on the performance of naive inflation targeting or an exchange rate peg. Furthermore, optimal policies don't need to be coordinated across countries. A non-cooperative, self-oriented optimal policy gives results very similar to those of a global cooperative optimal policy.     

美联储应对金融危机的货币政策:效果、特点与问题

2007年以来,美联储为了应对金融危机,实施了扩张性货币政策,并根据市场需要,创设了一系列非常规货币政策工具.在货币政策的调控下,市场信心得以恢复,金融机构倒闭现象得到遏制,并阻止了经济深度衰退.但极度扩张的货币政策也带来了后续的通货膨胀、债务风险等问题,需要采取有效措施加以解决.     

"天量"信贷政策的效应及其调整

2009年上半年中国为应对金融危机冲击、保增长,货币信贷投放激增,适度宽松的货币政策演变为过度宽松的货币政策.过度宽松的货币政策导致了短期通缩和长期通胀预期并存的尴尬局面.为了确保货币政策目标的实现和发挥货币政策促进经济增长的作用,适度宽松是货币当局的理性选择.但是,在执行货币政策中应掌控货币政策的宽松度,理顺货币政策的传导机制,加强对银行信贷的监管.