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2020年11月央行与银保监会联合印发《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》对消费金融资产证券化规模做出明确限制,如何有效治理消费金融公司的违规行为成为金融监管领域的核心议题。本文基于演化博弈理论,将激励机制纳入分析框架,研究消费金融公司与监管机构在动态博弈中的策略选择并借助理论建模分析二者演化博弈均衡问题。研究结果表明:消费金融公司与监管机构策略选择的外部性,隐含了演化稳定策略的存在性;消费金融公司与监管机构的利益不一致,使得博弈系统可能存在不稳定状态;博弈系统是否存在稳定组合策略取决于监管成本与社会损失的相对大小以及违规发行超额获利与违规处罚和合规激励之和的相对大小。 相似文献
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诚信缺失问题是社会各界关注的热点,受多重因素的影响,大学生失信行为屡见不鲜.本文基于非合作演化博弈理论,提出了在相关方和大学生信息不对称情况下具有学习机制的学生诚信问题理论模型.结合效用函数,对非合作演化博弈的进化过程中的纳什均衡点的存在性和唯一性进行论证.对建立演化博弈模型进行仿真实验.结果显示,在演化博弈中引入第三方动态惩罚策略,模型存在纳什均衡,指出构建全社会诚信治理机制,加强思想教育的同时,完善大学生失信动态追惩制度,是解决大学生诚信问题的重要途径. 相似文献
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城市房屋征收补偿的研究,均建立在完全理性、最优策略等传统的博弈理论基础之上,现实当中由于征收人(政府)与被征收人都是有限理性的,因此传统研究不符合城市房屋征收过程中的实际情况,更不利于城市房屋征收补偿机制的优化及改善.为了使城市房屋征收补偿问题更趋于公平和更贴合实际,本文运用演化博弈的思维,分析有限理性约束和初始条件约束下的演化稳定策略均衡,基于城市房屋征收补偿这个长期反复的博弈过程,研究博弈双方(征收人与被征收人)的策略调整、趋势以及局部稳定性.为了使得征收人(政府)与被征收人实现利益均衡,提出了改变和增加城市房屋征收补偿方式等建议. 相似文献
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根据我国商业银行资本缓冲的理论特征,本文基于动态博弈理论分析了不同规模银行之间合作竞争的演化过程,进而得出博弈最终的稳定状态。进行演化博弈分析时,笔者将银行分为大型商业银行和其他小型商业银行,分析大、小型银行间的博弈策略以及长期演化结果,揭示了商业银行资本缓冲行为受异质银行行为的影响,探讨其背后的动因,以期对我国制定适当的资本缓冲政策,加强商业银行资本管理等方面提供一定的参考。 相似文献
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证券交易者行为的进化博弈分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
运用进化博弈理论,构造证券交易者进化博弈模型,模拟市场中理性交易者与噪声交易者相互转换的过程,说明二者之间存在动态均衡,这种均衡受到交易者对证券收益的预期与噪声交易风险的影响。 相似文献
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针对不变突变率模型的缺陷,结合心理学、社会学等成果,通过在吸引域离开阻抗中引入意向因素而拓展了不变突变率模型,研究了意向因素影响下协调博弈均衡的稳定性,探讨了均衡结果与影响因素之间的数量关系,模型可为决策者驾驭经济演化系统提供理论依据。 相似文献
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针对当前“稳增长”与“稳杠杆”的双重目标,本文构建了一个包含财政、货币政 策四种规则的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡分析框架,利用我国1995—2016年间的数据进行 估计,然后从平滑机制和联动机制两个层面探讨财政货币政策如何配合问题。研究发现,从平 滑机制看,财政货币政策需要各自加强相机调节力度,从联动机制看,利率需要对税收冲击负 向响应,而政府支出需要对货币供给冲击正向响应。研究表明,与现行政策范式相比,政策搭 配优化后的调控效果较好。 相似文献
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唐震斌 《中央财经大学学报》2003,(5):20-25
融资功能是证券市场的主要功能之一,但股市扩容往往被列为“利空”因素,实证研究表明扩容本身并不会直接导致股指下降,而且能从多个方面对股市稳定健康发展发挥积极作用,我国A股市场指数正是在不断扩容的基础上迭创新高总体保持上升趋势,并且大扩容往往是在大牛市的背景中完成的。 相似文献
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货币政策框架理论的一般分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文深入分析货币政策目标、物价稳定和货币政策框架三者之间的关系以及在中国的适用问题,期望为中国货币政策框架的改革提供一定的理论依据。 相似文献
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证券投资基金是股票市场稳定机制建设的重要内容.尽管中国证券投资基金在市场中具有较强的影响力,但尚未发挥稳定市场的作用.这既受到外部投资环境不完善的制约,也受到投资基金业自身不成熟的影响.鉴于此,我们必须完善证券市场基础性法律和制度,同时,通过引导基金树立正确的投资理念、完善基金制度、加强基金投资者教育等措施规范投资基金的发展,发挥作为市场稳定机制的作用. 相似文献
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We propose a model for determining the optimal bid-ask spread strategy by a high-frequency trader (HFT) who has an informational advantage and receives information about the true value of a security. We employ an information cost function that includes volatility and the volume of the asset. Subsequently, we characterize the optimal bid-ask price strategies and obtain a stable bid-ask spread. We assume that orders submitted by low-frequency traders (LFTs) and news events arrive at the market with Poisson processes. Additionally, our model supports the trading of the two-sided quote in one period. We find that more LFTs and a higher exchange latency both hurt market liquidity. The HFT prefers to choose a two-sided quote to gain more profits while cautiously chooses a one-sided quote during times of high volatility. The model generates some testable implications with supporting empirical evidence from the NASDAQ-OMX Nordic Market. 相似文献
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Several studies that have investigated a few stocks have found that the spacing between consecutive financial transactions
(referred to as trade duration) tend to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tailedness, and clustering. In this study, we
empirically investigate whether a larger sample of stocks exhibit those characteristics. We do so by comparing goodness of
fit in modeling trade duration data for stable distribution and fractional stable noise based on a procedure applying bootstrap
methods developed by the authors with several alternative distributional assumptions in modeling trade duration data. The
empirical results suggest that the autoregressive conditional duration model with stable distribution fits better than other
combinations, while fractional stable noise itself fits better for the time series of trade duration. Our result is consistent
with the general findings in the literature that trade duration is informative and that short trade durations move prices
more than long trade duration. In addition, our result confirms the advantage of fractal models in the study of roughness
in trade duration and provides some evidence for duration dependence.
S. Rachev’s research was supported by grants from the Division of Mathematical, Life and Physical Science, College of Letters
and Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft. W. Sun’s research was supported
by grants from the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft. P.S. Kalev’s research was supported with a NCG grant from the Faculty
of Business and Economics, Monash University. Data are supplied by Securities Industry Research Center of Asia-Pacific (SIRCA)
on behalf of Reuters. The first draft of this paper was presented at the International Conference on High Frequency Finance
2006; the authors would like to thank the conference participants for their valuable comments. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries using exploratory data analysis techniques and model fitting. Stable laws are fitted to empirical distributions using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Empirical evidence supports the stable hypothesis these distributions are positively skewed and have tails that are much heavier than Gaussian counterparts. The stable hypothesis is further supported by the “converging variance test,” which suggests that these distributions have infinite variance. 相似文献
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关注客户特征甚至同时跟随客户,既能促进公共信息含量及其质量的提高,又能获得某些私人信息,进而改善分析师盈余预测行为。基于企业层面的证据表明:(1)客户越稳定,分析师对企业的盈利预测越准确,预测分歧度与偏差度越小;(2)企业生产非耐用品、处于行业弱势地位、稳定客户销售占比较高以及与客户关系较好时,稳定客户对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响更显著;(3)稳定客户对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响,可能源自稳定客户对企业盈余以及盈利稳定性的提高。这说明稳定客户是分析师的重要信息来源,即使分析师不同时跟随客户,稳定客户对于分析师预测也有信号传递效应,有助于提高其对企业盈余预测的准确性。基于分析师层面的证据表明:相对于未同时跟随客户与企业的分析师,同时跟随客户与企业的分析师的预测偏差更低,而且这种关系主要体现在客户稳定组。此外在同时跟随客户与企业的样本中,稳定客户与分析师预测偏差负相关。这说明分析师同时跟随稳定客户,可获得供应链知识的溢出效应,从而降低分析师对企业盈利预测的偏误。这些研究结论有助于丰富客户和分析师文献。 相似文献
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We study the exceedance probability of a high threshold (ruin probability) for a random walk with a negative linear drift, where the steps of the walk (claim sizes) constitute a stationary ergodic symmetric α-stable process. We casually use the language of insurance, although this is a popular problem in many other fields of applied probability as well. We refer to ergodic theory to split the step process into two independent processes. We focus on the processes generated by dissipative flows, which are known to have a mixed moving average representation, and we restrict our attention to regular moving averages with non-negative kernels. We give results for the order of magnitude of the exceedance probability as the threshold goes to infinity in the cases of discrete-time and continuous-time claim processes. 相似文献