次贷危机对美国信用卡市场的影响

本文考察了美国信用卡市场的概况,分析了次贷危机对该市场的影响。研究认为,信用卡坏账计提率和拖欠率上升及大型发卡机构收入下降反映了美国信用卡市场风险增加,由于信用卡贷款的规模和证券化规模远小于房屋按揭贷款,商业银行对于信用卡贷款的利率也没有明显提高,因此,信用卡市场风险目前不会对美国金融体系带来新一轮的大规模冲击。但是如果美国实体经济不能较快摆脱危机的影响,就业和收入增长压力巨大,不排除爆发信用卡债务危机的可能性。     

对美国财政悬崖的三种误解

经济世界乱象纷呈,没有逻辑则唯剩残影。宏观美国,政治博弈、自然灾害、社会事件、企业兴衰掺杂在一起,带来了一个经济意义上错综复杂的岁末年初,财政悬崖风声鹤唳,飓风桑迪影响深远,大选冲击尤有余波,苹果股价一跌再跌,OE3s又意外面世。     

国际金融危机后的世界经济环境将有利于中国经济发展

从表象看,从次贷危机开始的金融危机影响了美国实体经济,而本质上,是美国的实体经济危机导致了目前的金融危机.     

浅谈西部大开发实体经济发展与资本市场的制度创新

2012年初,我国关于《西部大开发"十二五"规划》已获国务院正式批复,新一轮西部大开发正蓬勃开展,深入推进,新一轮西部大开发的关键主要在于大力发展西部的工业实体经济,然而,西部实体经济与资本市场之间存在着相互依存的关系。要顺利高效的发展工业实体经济,必须要对西部资本市场进行制度创新。     

冷静看待美国经济溢出效应

当前美国经济的溢出效应对实体经济和金融市场表现出截然不同的两个方面,集中于美国实体经济和金融市场结合的综合效应,只有将这种效应清晰化,才可以由此判断其对世界经济和其他国家地区的影响。对此,多数国家采取冷静观察的态度,谨慎应对金融市场动荡对经济发展的后续影响。     

美国经济衰退的国际相关性实证研究

本文采用事件窗口分析方法,研究美国近7次经济衰退与主要发达国家、亚洲四小龙的关系。发现美国经济衰退的国际相关性是动态变化的,其中1973年、1980年和2001年是国际相关性最高的3次衰退;新一轮经济周期当中东亚四小龙金融变量与美国高度相关,超过了实体经济变量与美国的相关性。此外,本文还分析了美国与其他国家或地区经济衰退的领先、滞后关系。     

QE3靴子落地 金银价格纷涨——2012年9月金银走势简析

OE3横空出世 各央行纷纷加大宽松规模 纵观9月行情,对市场影响最大的莫过于在9月13日的美联储利率决议中,联邦公开市场操作委员会（FOMC）宣布推出新一轮量化宽松的货币政策,即QE3。其具体内容为：     

金融危机对经济欠发达地区企业的影响——以江西抚州市工业企业为例

随着美国次贷危机引发的金融海啸席卷全球,对实体经济的影响进一步加剧,造成了世界经济增长的日益下挫,也给我国经济带来了显著的影响。为了解此次金融危机对经济欠发达地区实体的影响,我们以江西省抚州市企业的情况为例,对此开展了专题调查研究,并提出对策措施。     

非常规货币政策操作的常态化

短时期,QE3将有利于避免美国经济下行的风险;长期而言,美联储再次启动非常规量化宽松货币政策将引发新一轮的全球流动性盛宴鉴于美国及其货币政策在全球经济中的重要地位,美国QE3(第三轮量化宽松货币政策)的推出将对全球经济金融产生深远的影响。欧美日发达经济体纷纷推出新一轮量化     

服务创新是应对金融危机的有效途径

始发于美国次贷危机的全球金融危机对中国实体经济的冲击越来越显著.学界和实际部门普遍从实体经济探讨金融危机的影响,比如对GDP增长速度、就业、财税收入,进出口产生的不利影响分析较多,而从服务业角度探讨相对较少.     

Did quantitative easing reduce the borrowing costs of firms? The risk-taking channel

This paper examines the effect of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) on the cost of bank loans and documents large heterogeneous effects across different firms. In QE1, the average loan spread is 22.7 percent lower compared to the non-QE period. This effect falls in QE2 and OT and then rises in QE3 and the tapering period. The rates of riskier loans are restrained more than less risky loans during QEs as banks take more risks by offering lower rates to attract risky borrowers. The Fed mortgage-backed securities purchases have a larger impact in narrowing the borrowing cost difference between riskier and safer loans than the Fed Treasury purchases. Our results are robust to borrower, year-quarter and bank fixed effects. Overall, our findings support that the risk-taking channel of QE plays a significant role in the corporate bank loan market.     

The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the tail risks of stock markets between U.S. and Japan

Facing the economic downturn, the central bank of U.S. and Japan adopts the unconventional monetary policy to stimulate their economy. This paper studies the quantitative easing policy effectiveness via the tail risks of stock markets in the U.S., Japan and the other 74 countries. Although the stock markets of U.S. and Japan reveals the announcement-day effects of the QE policy, this study finds an asymmetric tail risk of return distribution on the QE policy effect. The post-period right-tail and left-tail risks of the stock markets are significantly smaller and larger than that of the pre-period of the QE programs, respectively. This implies that the tail risks of stock returns have dissimilar interdependence with the QE programs. Furthermore, the geographical dependence is the major factor that determines the contagion of stock market, and the fragility of foreign stock market caused by the US QE policy is larger than that of the Japan.     

Responding to QE taper from the receiving end

This paper analyses the spillovers of quantitative easing (QE) and their taper in India, as there could be country-specific nuances that qualify the inferences thrown up by cross-country studies, and therefore, can enrich and empower the on-going debate. Using a combination of event study analyses, generalized method of moments and VAR estimates, it finds that QEs have significantly altered monetary conditions in India. Among the QEs, QE1 had the largest impact and taper announcement had a strong negative impact, with the spillovers working mainly through the portfolio rebalancing channel, followed by the liquidity channel. Going forward, emerging economies are likely to take into account these spillovers in the conduct of monetary policy, with implications for both policy autonomy and global welfare.     

经济全球化背景下的日本金融监管体制改革

金融监管的理念及监管体制顺应经济发展要求而不断地演变。在金融全球化背景下，日本逐步形成了监管权高度集中却又不失灵活性的金融监管体制，监管体制改革是政府与金融体系博弈的结果。在经历2008年国际金融危机后，实践证明日本的金融监管体制改革是有效的。中国在今后的金融全球化过程中可以供鉴日本金融监管体制改革的经验。     

美国量化宽松货币政策前景及其对我国跨境资金流动的影响

2012年1月25日,美联储举行2012年首次议息会议,会议声明显示出较为鲜明的量化宽松立场,这引起了市场各界对美国是否会在近期推出第三轮量化宽松货币政策（QE3）的热议。文章综合美国经济基本面、通胀形势与欧债危机演变等多方面因素分析,预计近期美联储不会推出QE3,但2012年下半年QE3推出的可能性较大,这将促使资金加速流向新兴资本市场,并对我国跨境资本流动和外汇供求关系产生影响。     

What drives cross-market correlations during the United States Q.E.?

This paper investigates the dynamic cross-market correlations and its crucial drivers between the United States (U.S.) stock and currency market and foreign markets during the U.S. Quantitative Easing (QE) periods. We focus on countries with strong trade and financial linkages with the U.S., including Australia, Canada, and Mexico. Our empirical analyses deliver important findings. First, we consistently find positive (negative) correlations between the U.S. equity (currency) market and financial assets of the three foreign countries under the scenario of the U.S. QE. Second, the magnitude of the conditional correlations tends to be strengthened during the initiation of the U.S. QE1 but was weakened during the U.S. QE3. Lastly, we find that U.S. treasury yields and term premium were among the most significant economic drivers of the markets' linkages during both QE1 and QE3 but in an opposite role. Meanwhile, the expected uncertainty in the bond market additionally contributed to drive the markets' interrelationship during the QE2. Our findings deliver important information to investors and policymakers to anticipate the dynamics of market linkages under U.S. QE scenarios.     

Employment effects of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from QE

This paper investigates employment effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policies (QE) via a bank lending channel. We find that banks with higher mortgage-backed securities holdings refinanced relatively more mortgages after the first round of QE, which increased local consumption and employment in the nontradable goods sector. In contrast, banks increased lending to firms and home purchase mortgage origination after the third round of QE, which led to a sizable increase in overall employment. Our findings are supported by new confidential loan-level data that show firms with stronger ties to affected banks increased employment and capital investment more during QE3.     

印度金融市场震荡的成因，前景及应对启示

自2013年5月美联储释放退出量化宽松（QE）的政策信号之后,印度金融市场出现剧烈震荡。文章在与亚洲金融危机期间印度金融市场表现进行历史对比的基础上,对此次印度金融市场动荡的成因及危机治理措施进行了评析,指出印度固有经济结构缺陷和美联储货币政策退出信号是导致市场波动的重要内外部诱因。未来1～2年内印度金融市场出现阶段性震荡的概率仍然较大。此外,文章还探讨了此次印度市场案例带给中国经济金融的影响和启示。     

2010年美国经济金融运行形势分析以及2011年展望

自本轮经济衰退结束以来,美国经济运行总体呈冲高回落并再度走强之势。在消费和非住宅投资的带动下,2010年下半年美国经济增长有所加快,但在2011年仍将受到失业率高企、房市低迷、政府债务压力加大等不利因素的影响,对未来美国经济复苏形势宜持谨慎乐观态度。     

Essential concepts necessary to consider when evaluating the efficacy of quantitative easing

The economic impact from quantitative easing (QE) may be much less than assumed by the Federal Reserve. One focus is on the effectiveness of QE to stabilize a failing banking system, and the judgment here is largely positive. A second focus, especially in the US, is on evaluating subsequent rounds of QE that were implemented after the economy had resumed growth and after the banking sector had recapitalized and returned to profitability. For these subsequent rounds of QE, the reviews are decidedly mixed and heavily dependent on the assumptions embedded in the economic models used by the researchers. Researchers willing to assume that the US is a closed domestic economy tend to find a large impact on long-term interest rates from QE. If the US is part of a highly integrated global economy, a smaller effect is presumed. Then there is the more important and controversial evaluation of whether there is any impact on real GDP growth and job creation from QE once the economy is growing again, even if unemployment rates remain historically elevated. What one chooses to ignore or assume does not exist can be more important to the conclusions of QE evaluations than may meet the eye. Inappropriate assumptions can lead to poor decisions.