Bond pricing with a surface of zero coupon yields

We present a new method for consistent cross‐sectional pricing of all traded bonds in the fixed income market. By applying thin plate regression splines ( Wood, 2003 ) to bootstrapped zero coupon bond yields ( Hagan and West, 2006 ), the method decomposes traded yields into a risk‐free component plus premia for credit and liquidity risks, where the decomposition is consistent with the market valuations and underlying cash flows of the bonds. We apply the framework to end of quarter yield data from 2008 to 2011 on Australian dollar denominated semi‐government, supranational and agency (SSA) bonds, and find that the surface provides an excellent fit to the underlying zero coupon yield curves. Further, the decomposition of selected yield time series and cross‐sections demonstrates how credit premia increased for Australian SSA bonds through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), but were counterbalanced by liquidity discounts as investors sought safe haven securities.     

Accounting comparability and relative performance evaluation by capital markets

This paper examines how accounting comparability affects the monitoring role and the risk allocation role of capital markets. We develop the statistical and informational properties of accounting reports under varying degrees of comparability. A perfectly comparable accounting information system enables investors to perfectly infer the difference between any two firms' future cash flows although investors remain uncertain about either firm's cash flow. Comparability alleviates entrepreneurs' moral hazard problem by strengthening the price response to the relative accounting performance, but can induce excessive price risk as well as residual systematic cash flow risk. Unlike the investors (users) who earn their surplus by bearing the residual systematic risk, the entrepreneurs (preparers) do not find perfect comparability desirable. Hence, a standard setter would mandate higher comparability than preferred by preparers, but not perfect comparability.     

Are there too many safe securities? Securitization and the incentives for information production

We present a model that helps explain several past collapses of securitization markets. Originators issue too many informationally insensitive securities in good times, blunting investor incentives to become informed. The resulting endogenous scarcity of informed investors exacerbates primary market collapses in bad times. Inefficiency arises because informed investors are a public good from the perspective of originators. All originators benefit from the presence of additional informed investors in bad times, but each originator minimizes his reliance on costly informed capital in good times by issuing safe securities. Our model suggests regulations that limit the issuance of safe securities in good times.     

Feedback and the success of irrational investors

We provide a model in which irrational investors trade based upon considerations that have no inherent connection to fundamentals. However, trading activity affects market prices, and because of feedback from security prices to cash flows, the irrational trades influence underlying cash flows. As a result, irrational investors can, in some situations, earn abnormal (i.e., risk-adjusted) profits that can exceed the abnormal profits of rational informed investors. Although the trading of irrational investors cause prices to deviate from fundamental values, stock prices follow a random walk.     

Aspects of insurance,intermediation and finance

This paper is concerned with the role of the insurance company as a financial intermediary which offers securities to uninformed retail investors. The search costs of retail investors cause the demand for the securities offered by intermediaries to be inelastic, making possible an intermediary spread, the difference between the returns on primary securities and the rates offered on the secondary securities sold by intermediaries. It is argued that the intermediary spread is economically significant, and a simple model of its determination is offered: the spread is shown to be an increasing function of interest rates. The bonus policy of life insurance companies is analyzed and is shown to be inefficient under simple assumptions about asset returns.     

Institutional investment horizon and investment–cash flow sensitivity

This paper examines the relevance of institutional investors’ investment horizon, as reflected in the response of firm investment to internal cash flows. We argue that institutional investors with longer investment horizons have greater incentives and efficiencies to engage in effective monitoring. This improved monitoring mitigates asymmetric information and agency problems, and in turn reduces the wedge between the costs of internal and external funds. As a result, the sensitivity of firms’ investment outlays to internal cash flows decreases in the presence of institutional investors with long-term investment horizons. Using a sample of 8402 US firms over the period 1981–2008, we provide empirical evidence consistent with these arguments.     

Geographic diversification and firm value in the financial services industry

This paper investigates whether geographic diversification is value-enhancing or value-destroying in the financial services sector, broadly defined. Our dataset comprises approximately 3579 observations over the period from 1985 to 2004 and covers the entire range of U.S. financial intermediaries — commercial banks, investment banks, insurance companies, asset managers, and financial infrastructure services firms. We use two alternative measures of geographic diversification: (1) a dummy variable whether the firm reports more than one geographic segment and (2) the percentage of sales from non-domestic operations. Our results indicate that geographic diversification is not associated with a significant valuation discount in financial intermediaries. However, when accounting for the firms' main activity-areas, we find evidence of a significant discount associated with geographic diversification in securities firms and a premium in credit intermediaries and insurance companies. All these results are robust after taking into account functional diversification of the firms, a potential endogeneity of both functional and geographic diversification, and a potential value transfer from equity to debt holders by using estimates of the market value of debt.     

Adverse Selection,Investor Experience and Security Choice in Venture Capital Finance: Evidence from Germany

This article analyses 336 German venture capital transactions from 1990 to 2005 and seeks to determine why selected financial securities differ across deals. We find that a broad array of financial instruments is used, covering straight equity, mezzanine and debt‐like securities. Based on the chosen financial securities’ upside potential and downside protection characteristics, we provide an explanation for the differing use of these securities. Our results show that investors’ deal experience, adverse selection risks and economic prospects in the public equity market influence the selection of financial securities.     

Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world

We examine how commonality in liquidity varies across countries and over time in ways related to supply determinants (funding liquidity of financial intermediaries) and demand determinants (correlated trading behavior of international and institutional investors, incentives to trade individual securities, and investor sentiment) of liquidity. Commonality in liquidity is greater in countries with and during times of high market volatility (especially, large market declines), greater presence of international investors, and more correlated trading activity. Our evidence is more reliably consistent with demand-side explanations and challenges the ability of the funding liquidity hypothesis to help us understand important aspects of financial market liquidity around the world, even during the recent financial crisis.     

How do firms choose their lenders? An empirical investigation

This article investigates which companies finance themselvesthrough intermediaries and which borrow directly from arm'slength investors. Our empirical results show that large companieswith abundant cash and collateral tap credit markets directly;these markets cater to safe and profitable industries, and aremost active when riskless rates or intermediary earnings arelow. We show that determinants of lender selection sharpen duringinvestment downturns and that there are substantial asymmetriesin the way firms enter and exit capital markets. These resultssupport a theoretical framework where intermediaries have betterreorganizational skills but a higher opportunity cost of capitalthan bondholders.     

Portfolio separation for stockholder owned depository financial intermediaries

The conditions leading to separation of asset composition and financing decisions for depository financial intermediaries have received considerable attention in the literature. Although research to date provides useful insights into the issue of separation, none analyze separation from the point of view of shareholder approval. In this paper a single-period model of investor behavior is developed and analyzed based on market equilibrium. The impetus for the existence of intermediaries is random cash payments of investors and liquidation costs. The conditions for shareholder unanimity and optimal rules for intermediary decisions are derived. The optimality conditions are then analyzed for separation.     

Neglected Risks in the Communication of Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Offerings

Examining the contractual disclosures during the sale of private-label residential mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 financial crisis, we find that textual contents in the risk-factor section predict subsequent losses and yet were not reflected in pricing. Insurance companies, especially life insurers and insurers with low regulatory capital ratios, are more exposed to textual risks. Consistent with issuers hedging litigation risks with disclosure, we find that textual contents are associated with second-lien underreporting and preissuance written communications. Overall, we find that investors neglected risks in the purportedly safe assets before the crisis.     

Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital

In this paper we examine whether and how accounting information about a firm manifests in its cost of capital, despite the forces of diversification. We build a model that is consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model and explicitly allows for multiple securities whose cash flows are correlated. We demonstrate that the quality of accounting information can influence the cost of capital, both directly and indirectly. The direct effect occurs because higher quality disclosures affect the firm's assessed covariances with other firms' cash flows, which is nondiversifiable. The indirect effect occurs because higher quality disclosures affect a firm's real decisions, which likely changes the firm's ratio of the expected future cash flows to the covariance of these cash flows with the sum of all the cash flows in the market. We show that this effect can go in either direction, but also derive conditions under which an increase in information quality leads to an unambiguous decline in the cost of capital.     

Excess cash holdings and investment: the moderating roles of financial constraints and managerial entrenchment

Our study investigates the relationship between excess cash holdings and investment behaviour under two dimensions of financial constraints and managerial entrenchment, based upon a sample of Taiwanese firms operating in an environment characterized by poor legal protection for investors, with data covering the years 2000–2006. We find that excess cash is significantly correlated with capital expenditure, particularly for firms financially constrained and with severe managerial entrenchment. However, the evidence shows that excess cash is insensitive to R&D expenditure under these two dimensions.     

Convertible Securities and Venture Capital Finance

This paper offers a new explanation for the prevalent use of convertible securities in venture capital finance. Convertible securities can be used to endogenously allocate cash‐flow rights as a function of the state of the world and the entrepreneur's effort. This property can be used to induce the entrepreneur and the venture capitalist to invest efficiently into the project. The result is robust to renegotiation and to changes in the timing of investments and information flows. The model is consistent with the observations that conversion is often automatic and that convertible securities are rarely used by outside investors.     

Relative Liquidity,Fund Flows and Short‐Term Demand: Evidence from Exchange‐Traded Funds

We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.     

The effects of taxation on put‐call parity

Share and option transactions are taxed differently, which means that the after‐tax cash flows used to establish put‐call parity will differ depending on which option is exercised. This paper derives the after‐tax put‐call parity relationship for European and American options with or without dividends. Using Australian data for the period July 1999 to June 2002, the after‐tax put‐call parity relationship explains 88.3 per cent of no‐tax lower boundary violations and 78.8 per cent of no‐tax upper boundary violations. The violation are larger for more thinly traded securities, providing some evidence that traders are able to profit from the tax discontinuities that affect investors in options.     

The price of skill: Performance evaluation by households

Skilled investors make money off uninformed investors. By acting as intermediaries, they provide a hedge to the uninformed investors themselves. I present a model in which households have imperfect information about expected returns. Non-traded income shocks lead them to rebalance, sometimes at the wrong time. Active funds hedge this risk by trading on superior information. In equilibrium, they pay off when non-traded income disappoints, earning a premium that makes them appear to underperform index funds after fees. Empirical results using aggregate fund flows support the model. A corresponding asset pricing test can account for the apparent underperformance of active funds.     

The consequences of deviating from financial reporting industry norms: Evidence from the disclosure of foreign cash

This study examines how investors respond to firms’ disclosure practices that deviate from the majority of industry peers (i.e., industry norms). The SEC has made repeated calls for the disclosure of foreign cash in order for investors to have more information in determining firms’ liquidity positions. We examine the association between firm value and the non-disclosure of foreign cash in industries where the majority of firms choose to disclose foreign cash. We define partial disclosure as disclosing permanently reinvested earnings (PRE), but withholding the disclosure of foreign cash, and find that when the majority of industry peers disclose foreign cash, investors discount the firm-specific partial disclosure of foreign operations. This finding suggests that investors have similar information demands as the SEC, and that withholding foreign cash results in a valuation discount. We also find that this discount is more pronounced for firms predicted to have higher levels of foreign cash and higher levels of PRE. The discount in firm value is also concentrated among firms with managers who have more career concerns, suggesting that managers shift the cost of partial disclosure to shareholders instead of bearing the personal reputational cost of full disclosure. Our results are robust to multiple matched samples and entropy balancing. While previous literature has considered the valuation implications of foreign cash disclosures, we reveal the consequences of opting to withhold the disclosure of foreign cash. Our findings should be of interest to both managers and policy-setters in forming their disclosure protocols.     

THE IMPACT OF ASSET SECURITIZATION: A PERSPECTIVE FOR INVESTORS

A securitization transaction creates a new set of analytical challenges for both investors in the asset backed securities (ABS) and for holders of the debt and equity of the sponsor. This article argues that investors can gain insights into the risk and expected rewards of both ABS and the sponsoring corporation's securities by focusing on the excess cash flow (or "residual interest") that is expected to be generated by the ABS trust. The value of this residual interest is recognized as a one-time gain by the sponsoring lender in the period the ABS transaction is closed. Because the assumptions used to calculate this gain should represent management's best estimates as to the performance of the loan pool, comprehensive analysis of the gain-on-sale calculation can provide both corporate and ABS investors with significant insight into the level of risk in the securities they own. It also offers a tool for determining whether the expected returns justify the risks.