证券分析师与统计模型对盈余预测的准确性比较及两者的改进模型

本文使用2009年1月至2010年3月99家券商对我国上市公司作出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师对于统计模型的相对准确性及其改进模型的准确性。研究表明,我国的证券分析师预测同以年度数据为基础的年度统计模型相比具有显著优势,同以季度数据为基础的季度统计模型相比也具有显著优势,只是优势相对较小。在考察改进模型与证券分析师预测的相对准确性时,我们发现以季度统计模型和证券分析师预测为基础的改进模型战胜了证券分析师预测,而以年度统计模型和证券分析师预测为基础的改进模型的准确性则依旧小于证券分析师的预测。     

我国证券分析师特征与预测准度之间的经验分析

基于2002—2009年的大样本证券分析师公司年盈余预测数据,使用相对预测分析方法,在控制了其他预测影响因素之后,发现我国证券分析师特征显著影响他们的盈余预测准度。具体而言,我国证券分析师跟进公司的时间越长就越有经验,盈余预测就会越准;证券分析师跟进的公司数目越多和行业数目越多,预测研究的组合任务就越复杂,就不能有效发挥专业化优势,盈余预测就会越不准。不过,与假设预期不一致的是,我国证券分析师所在的研究机构规模越大,并没有发挥像国外大型研究机构所具有的资源优势,证券分析师盈余预测反倒越不准确。     

证券分析师在关注审计师声誉吗?——基于证券分析师盈余预测特征的实证研究

本文选取2007-2012年受到证监会行政处罚或卷入影响较大的财务丑闻的审计师作为声誉受损样本,通过考察证券分析师的盈余预测特征是否受到审计师声誉受损的影响,分析证券分析师是否在关注审计师的职业声誉。研究结果显示,与审计师声誉未受损的上市公司相比,证券分析师对审计师声誉受损的上市公司的盈余预测特征发生显著变化,具体表现为:盈余预测准确度下降,乐观程度显著下降,分歧度显著上升。研究结果表明,证券分析师就与证券市场相关的各种因素进行分析和研究时,对审计师声誉具有一定的认知度,并通过盈余预测特征将审计师声誉的信息传递给利益相关者,审计师声誉机制在证券分析师这一特殊行业内正在逐渐形成。     

超预期股本扩张与分析师每股盈余预测

卖方分析师的每股盈余预测在实证文献中被广泛使用。该指标同时依赖于分析师对目标公司未来净利润的预测和对目标公司未来股本数量的预测。因此,如果在分析师发布预测后,目标公司的股本数量发生超出分析师预期的扩张,则每股盈余预测将无法代表分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文构建了“调整后每股盈余预测”指标,该指标可剔除超预期股本扩张对每股盈余预测的影响,真实反映分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文应用该指标,在两个具体的实证研究场景中证明了,忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能得出错误的实证结论。本文还进一步指出了三个忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能导致错误实证结果的研究场景。     

超预期股本扩张与分析师每股盈余预测

卖方分析师的每股盈余预测在实证文献中被广泛使用。该指标同时依赖于分析师对目标公司未来净利润的预测和对目标公司未来股本数量的预测。因此,如果在分析师发布预测后,目标公司的股本数量发生超出分析师预期的扩张,则每股盈余预测将无法代表分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文构建了“调整后每股盈余预测”指标,该指标可剔除超预期股本扩张对每股盈余预测的影响,真实反映分析师对目标公司未来基本面的预测。本文应用该指标,在两个具体的实证研究场景中证明了,忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能得出错误的实证结论。本文还进一步指出了三个忽略超预期股本扩张的影响可能导致错误实证结果的研究场景。     

其他综合收益、分析师预测与决策价值

其他综合收益作为“脏盈余”的回收站,是否对信息使用者具有决策价值是困扰准则制定者的重要学术问题,从资本市场最专业的财务报表使用者——证券分析师视角出发,研究其他综合收益对分析师盈余预测的影响,检验分析师是否能够有效识别利用其他综合收益信息.研究结果表明:其他综合收益信息对分析师盈余预测准确性有显著影响,即其他综合收益比重高的企业,分析师盈余误差的分歧越大;其他综合收益强制披露后分析师解读成本减低,盈余预测准确性得以提高.结论支持现阶段其他综合收益信息在分析师利预测中的作用,间接证明其他综合收益的决策价值.     

证券分析师预测经验、历史预测准确性与现金流预测

本文以2007—2011年间证券分析师发布的现金流预测数据为研究样本,系统考察了证券分析师预测经验和历史预测准确性对现金流预测准确性的影响。研究发现,分析师公司层面经验与现金流预测准确性显著正相关,这表明分析师跟踪特定上市公司年限越长,分析师能够掌握更多的私有信息,对获取该特定公司的私有信息更能有效处理,作出准确判断的可能性越高。上年度现金流预测准确性与当期现金流预测准确性显著正相关,这说明分析师在进行现金流预测时会理性地根据自己的预测准确性记录来更新其现金流预测。     

中国证券分析师独立性问题研究

本文利用分析师利益最大化模型全面分析了证券分析师面临的各种利益关系对其发布的研究报告质量的影响,并收集了从2007年至2010年所有证券分析师发布的盈余预测与股票评级作为样本对研究假设展开实证研究.     

股市传闻对证券分析师预测行为的影响研究

股市传闻作为一类未经证实但却得以传播的信息,对于资本市场健康平稳运行产生不利影响。本文聚焦于证券分析师这一重要资本市场信息中介视角,系统考察了目标公司股市传闻情况对于分析师预测行为所产生的具体影响及其内在机理,研究发现上市公司发生传闻会降低分析师对其盈余预测的准确度,且发生传闻次数越多,分析师盈余预测准确度越低。影响机制检验表明股市传闻主要通过增加信息筛选难度以及分散注意力的方式来负面影响分析师预测精度。相较利好传闻而言,利空传闻对分析师盈余预测准确度的负面影响更明显。本文不仅拓展了股市传闻所引致经济后果以及分析师预测行为影响因素的相关研究文献与考察视角,也为切实管控中国股市传闻以促进资本市场高质量发展提供了有益借鉴。     

分析师盈余预测准确性与投资评级的效率——基于中国证券市场的实证分析

本文以我国证券分析师(以下简称分析师)在2005-2010年发布的研究报告为对象,研究分析师盈余预测准确性与其投资评级效率之间的关系。本文的研究方法是,按照准确性对分析师盈余预测进行分组并根据组内的投资评级构造股票投资组合,比较各投资组合的月平均超额收益率的差异。研究发现,分析师盈余预测的准确性与其投资评级的效率正相关,盈余预测准确性最高组的买入-卖空投资组合的月平均超额收益比准确性最低组高出1.997%。我们的研究结果表明,准确的盈余预测信息有助于分析师做出更有价值的投资评级,同时,研究也初步揭开了分析师工作过程的"黑匣子",为未来深入研究分析师行为提供了基础。     

Investor and (Value Line) Analyst Underreaction to Information about Future Earnings: The Corrective Role of Non-Earnings-Surprise Information

Prior research suggests that financial analysts' earnings forecasts and stock prices underreact to earnings news. This paper provides evidence that analysts and investors correct this underreaction in response to the next earnings announcement and to other (non-earnings-surprise) information available between earnings announcements. Our evidence also suggests that analysts and investors underreact to information reflected in analysts' earnings forecast revisions and that non-earnings-surprise information helps correct this underreaction as well. Controlling for corrective non-earnings-surprise information significantly increases estimates of the degree to which analysts' forecasting behavior can explain drifts in returns following both earnings announcements and analysts' earnings forecast revisions.     

Analyst earnings forecast precision and local advantage: evidence from American depositary receipt firms

Prior research has documented a finding that local analysts provide more accurate earnings forecasts than nonlocal analysts in many settings. However, little is known about local and nonlocal analysts’ relative earnings forecast abilities for ADR stocks. In this study, we find that the local advantage disappears for ADR stocks and that nonlocal analysts in fact outperform local ones in this case. We investigate the source of this ‘local disadvantage’ and find evidence against hypotheses based on accounting standards and exchange rates. We document that the local advantage decreases with increased investor interest in foreign firms, consistent with our nonlocal investors’ interest hypothesis.     

Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies

This paper shows that the dispersion in analysts' consensus forecasts contains incremental information to predict future stock returns. Consistent with prior research, stock prices in the German market underreact to news about future earnings and drift in the direction suggested by analysts' forecasts revisions. Even higher abnormal returns can be achieved by applying such an earnings momentum strategy to stocks with a low dispersion in analyst forecasts. These results support one of the recent behavioural models in which investors underweight new evidence and conservatively update their beliefs in the right direction, but by too little in magnitude with respect to more objective information.     

财务分析师盈利预测的投资价值:来自深沪A股市场的证据

本文研究了中国股票市场上财务分析师的盈利预测信息对投资者是否有价值。我们发现,可以利用公开的盈利预测制定可获利的套头交易策略。套头交易的回报率不仅在统计意义上显著大于零,而且在经济意义上也是显著的。这些结果不受不同的检验方法影响,也无法为我们所考虑到的风险因素所解释。本文的发现说明了中国的股票市场尚未达到Fama(1970)意义上的半强式有效,投资者在投资决策时可以利用分析师的盈利预测以提高其投资的回报。此外,本文的结果也有助于回答中国的财务分析师是否具有专业胜任能力这一颇有争议的问题。     

Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts

We examine security analysts' career concerns by relating their earnings forecasts to job separations. Relatively accurate forecasters are more likely to experience favorable career outcomes like moving up to a high-status brokerage house. Controlling for accuracy, analysts who are optimistic relative to the consensus are more likely to experience favorable job separations. For analysts who cover stocks underwritten by their houses, job separations depend less on accuracy and more on optimism. Job separations were less sensitive to accuracy and more sensitive to optimism during the recent stock market mania. Brokerage houses apparently reward optimistic analysts who promote stocks.     

Analysts' forecasts of Japanese firms' earnings: additional evidence

This article examines analysts' forecasts of Japanese firms' earnings during Japan's economic burst period in the 1990s. Using the evidence of analyst earnings forecasts in the United States as a benchmark, the article documents the following three findings. First, whereas the forecast accuracy of U.S. analysts following U.S. firms improves over time, the forecast accuracy of U.S. and Japanese analysts following Japanese firms does not. Second, whereas decreases in forecast errors of U.S. analysts following U.S. firms are best explained by decreases in forecast bias of the analysts, increases in forecast errors of U.S. and Japanese analysts following Japanese firms are best explained by increases in the frequency of losses experienced by Japanese firms. Third, Japanese analysts forecast earnings less accurately than do U.S. analysts. These findings reflect the difficulty of producing accurate earnings forecasts during economic downturns. They also suggest that Japanese analysts are more bound than their U.S. counterparts by cultural ties that impede forecast accuracy.     

Analyst Earnings Forecasts for Publicly Traded Insurance Companies

Several trends in the insurance and financial services industry, including demutualizationconsolidation, and deregulation, have attracted increasing attention from investors and financial analysts. This paper investigates the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of financial analysts for insurance companies. Our empirical results indicate that analyst forecasts outperform random walk time-series forecasts. Furthermore, we find that both disagreement over earnings forecasts among analysts and the relative forecasting error in the mean forecasts is smaller for life insurers than for property-casualty insurers, whereas the relative errors for forecasts for multiple-line insurers are in between the two. Forecasting error is a negative function of firm size and the number of analysts who are following a company, and is a positive function of the disagreement among analysts.Analyst forecasts have a timing advantage over the random walk model. Our results also suggest that the fair value reporting requirement (SFAS 115), which has been in effect since 1994, has enhanced the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The SFAS 115 has improved the superiority of analyst forecasts over the random walk forecasts for life insurers, but not for property-casualty insurers, and there is a weak improvement for multiple-line insurers. JEL Classification: G15     

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS, FIRM SIZE, AND THE INFORMATIVENESS OF STOCK PRICES

The notion that prices impound a wide array of information, including market expectations, has led to earnings forecast models conditioned on prices. Yet, presumably, analysts' forecasts capture both public information and certain private information not previously impounded in prices. Accordingly, price-based models are seemingly an inefficient, and less effective, source of expecta-tions. This article investigates this hypothesis using financial analysts', price-based, and naive forecasts. Results indicate that analysts' forecasts (1) are at least as accurate as price-based and naive models, and (2) yield better expectations for market tests relating returns and earnings. These inferences are robust across different information environments. The evidence suggests that analysts either possess private information or are more effective information processors, or both.     

The accuracy of management dividend forecasts in Australia

Dividends have direct cash flow consequences for investors and are important for signalling reasons. Consequently, investors, analysts and managers typically forecast future dividends and report them in various ways. Yet the accuracy of dividend forecasts has been largely neglected in empirical finance. We examine the accuracy of managers' dividend forecasts in Australian IPO prospectuses (a companion paper examines the analysts' dividend forecasts). Managers' dividend forecasts are optimistically biased. Nevertheless, they are substantially more accurate and less biased than their earnings counterparts. Differences in retained ownership and the predictability of earnings help explain why some dividend forecasts are more accurate than others.     

我国证券分析师预测代表市场预期的能力提高了吗?来自年报信息市场反应检验的证据

本文以集中发布了分析师行为规范的2005年为转折点,参考对比随机模型和管理层预测,在年报公布后的长窗口内检验分析师的盈利预测代表投资者盈利预期的能力是否有所提高。结果表明,在2005年之后,伴随着分析师预测准确度的提高,其代表市场预期的能力也有所提高,这从投资者认同的角度揭示了我国分析师行业的逐步规范和发展。本文的发现还表明,相对于管理层预测和随机模型的预测而言,分析师预测可能是更合适的市场预期替代变量。