No significant service gap between west Germany and the USA

Conclusions The analyses show that a significant “services gap” does not exist between west Germany and the USA. Such a gap is not even evident in the area of low-skill service activities, such as in catering, once the marginal employment relations — the importance of which is understated by the official statistics — are included. This finding invalidates the empirical basis for economic policy proposals for an expansion of employment in service branches as a way out of the employment crisis. It is evident that a solution to Germany's current employment problems can only be found in a strategy that increases the scope for employment at the macro-economic level, i.e. irrespective of sectoral developments and whatever the implications of this for the distribution of the various types of activity. Having said this, the heavy bias in the output structure of the German economy in favour of industrial output suggests that an additional employment potential does exist in services, especially personal services.     

The scope for national monetary policy in the face of globalised financial markets

Conclusion Experience has shown that German monetary policy is far from impotent There is consequently no call for passive resignation. The monetary authorities must send clear signals if the current turbulence on the currency markets is to be kept in check. The Bundesbank itself has clearly shown — during the period following German Unification — that an autonomous monetary policy is possible in spite of the high degree of integration on international financial markets. It is hard to see why this should not be the case today simply because it is no longer interest rate hikes but base rate cuts that are called for.If interest rates are not reduced, the interest rate on the German capital market will continue to follow the lead set by American monetary policy. But is it right that the American central bank, on the basis of data on the state of the US economy, indirectly helps to determine whether new jobs are created in Germany and whether existing jobs are made more secure? What is required in the medium term is greater independence on the part of German monetary policy. The globalisation of financial markets does not stand in the way of such a strategy.     

Wages, exchange rates and competitiveness

Conclusion Wage growth in west Germany has, over the longer term and with few exceptions, been far more closely oriented towards macroeconomic productivity growth than in the majority of its competitor countries. Even after adjusting for exchange rate movements, it is evident that unit labour costs in west Germany have, in general, growth significantly less strongly and in most cases are lower in absolute terms than abroad. The fact that, in spite of this, Germany has repeatedly faced foreign trade problems, is due to the volatility of exchanges rates. The demand—in such cases seemingly self-evident, although usually not explicitly formulated—that collective wage bargainers ought to orient wage growth not only towards productivity growth but also towards exchange rates would mean standing the economy on its head, however. A rational alternative to this is to stabilise exchange rates or indeed their partial abolition, as is the aim of European Monetary Union. It would be irrational, on the other hand, to abolish the wage determination system which, on the whole, has proved its effectiveness in orienting average wage increases towards macroeconomic productivity growth.     

Marketing malpractice: the cause and the cure

Ted Levitt used to tell his Harvard Business School students, "People don't want a quarter-inch drill--they want a quarter-inch hole." But 35 years later, marketers are still thinking in terms of products and ever-finer demographic segments. The structure of a market, as seen from customers' point of view, is very simple. When people need to get a job done, they hire a product or service to do it for them. The marketer's task is to understand what jobs periodically arise in customers' lives for which they might hire products the company could make. One job, the "I-need-to-send-this-from-here-to-there-with-perfect-certainty-as-fast-as-possible"job, has existed practically forever. Federal Express designed a service to do precisely that--and do it wonderfully again and again. The FedEx brand began popping into people's minds whenever they needed to get that job done. Most of today's great brands--Crest, Starbucks, Kleenex, eBay, and Kodak, to name a few-started out as just this kind of purpose brand. When a purpose brand is extended to products that target different jobs, it becomes an endorser brand. But, over time, the power of an endorser brand will surely erode unless the company creates a new purpose brand for each new job, even as it leverages the endorser brand as an overall marker of quality. Different jobs demand different purpose brands. New growth markets are created when an innovating company designs a product and then positions its brand on a job for which no optimal product yet exists. In fact, companies that historically have segmented and measured markets by product categories generally find that when they instead segment by job, their market is much larger (and their current share much smaller) than they had thought. This is great news for smart companies hungry for growth.     

The global threat of deflation calls for swift interest rate cuts in Europe

Conclusions Given the serious crisis in Asia and evidence of its spreading to other developing and transition countries, the attempt by German economic policymakers to achieve faster economic growth and higher employment almost exclusively by means of successes on export markets appears likely to fail sooner than had been expected by the DIW⁵. The significance of domestic demand has been systematically underestimated in recent years. With the help of extremely low pay settlements, the D-Mark was devalued in real terms; this promoted exports, but at the same time led to growth losses in private consumption and investment that more than offset the gains in exports. On top of this German fiscal policy—as documented in the following report in this issue—has weakened domestic demand and investment activity. This strategy might have worked if a symmetrically oriented monetary policy had reacted to the deflationary trend inherent in pay settlements and the fiscal-policy stance by swiftly and significantly reducing interest rates. This did not happen. It was therefore inevitable that the crisis in sales markets made its full effects felt on economic growth. More seriously still, if cost deflation in Germany is not brought to an end in the coming year by a return to productivity-oriented wage settlements, it will pose a major threat to the European Monetary Union.⁶ If Germany pursues a beggar-thyneighbour policy in a Europe without exchange rates, this can only result in deflation and a downward economic spiral.⁷     

Unit labour costs still higher in east than in west Germany

Conclusion The rapid wage growth in east Germany during the early years of German unification are a millstone around the neck of medium-term economic development in the new federal states. Because labour costs have raced ahead of productivity, unit labour costs have risen to a level substantially higher than that prevailing in the old federal states: there has been no improvement in the relationship between east and west German unit labour costs in recent years. Comparatively high wages at low productivity have led to an unfavourable profitability situation for many east German firms, which, in turn, has reduced investmen and slowed productivity growth. If firms in the new federal states are to break out of this vicious circle “it is essential that the level of collectively agreed wages does not rise for a number of years. Productivity growth would then create the scope for an improvement in profitability, which, in turn, is a necessary precondition for investment and the creation of competitive jobs… Only if a fundamental correction towards a relation (between labour costs and productivity) corresponding to that in west Germany is realised in east Germany can a self-sustained growth process be expected.”⁷ Yet in 1997 there is again no chance of a change of course of this nature.     

Macroeconomic fundamentals,jump dynamics and expected volatility

In this paper, we develop a new volatility model capturing the effects of macroeconomic variables and jump dynamics on the stock volatility. The proposed GARCH-Jump-MIDAS model is applied to the S&P 500 index. Our in-sample results indicate that macroeconomic activities have important impacts on aggregate market volatility. Out-of-sample evidence suggests that our model with macroeconomic variables significantly outperform a wide range of competitors including the original GARCH(1,1), GARCH-MIDAS and GJR-A-MIDAS models. The volatility timing results also show that the information from jumps and macroeconomic activity is helpful for improving the portfolio performance.     

Debt Relief and Economic Growth in Mexico

Could external restraint and internal balance in Mexico havebeen reconciled at levels of savings and investment that allowedsatisfactory growth in output without the 1989–90 restructuringof debt? What are the likely implications of Mexico's "Bradydeal" on economic growth? What are the macroeconomic effectsof debt-equity swaps? This article develops and estimates amodel to address these issues. The analysis concludes that the1989–90 agreement in Mexico will contribute materiallyto macroeconomic stability and the restoration of economic growth.     

Trade between the EC and the GDR

This two-part study considers East Germany's trade with the member countries of the EC¹. Trade between the GDR and the Federal Republic is only trouched upon, as it is subject to special conditions². Subsequently EC trade policy towards the GDR is analysed. The study shows that the most important precondition for an increase in East Germany exports to the EC is a considerable improvement in its supply of goods. The economic integration of the GDR into the EC, whatever form this may take, will, however, accelerate the necessary restructuring processes.     

How leaders create and use networks

Most people acknowledge that networking-creating a fabric of personal contacts to provide support, feedback, insight, and resources--is an essential activity for an ambitious manager. Indeed, it's a requirement even for those focused simply on doing their current jobs well. For some, this is a distasteful reality. Working through networks, they believe,means relying on "who you know" rather than "what you know"--a hypocritical, possibly unethical, way to get things done. But even people who understand that networking is a legitimate and necessary part of their jobs can be discouraged by the payoff--because they are doing it in too limited a fashion. On the basis of a close study of 30 emerging leaders, the authors outline three distinct forms of networking. Operational networking is geared toward doing one's assigned tasks more effectively. It involves cultivating stronger relationships with colleagues whose membership in the network is clear; their roles define them as stakeholders. Personal networking engages kindred spirits from outside an organization in an individual's efforts to learn and find opportunities for personal advancement. Strategic networking puts the tools of networking in the service of business goals. At this level, a manager creates the kind of network that will help uncover and capitalize on new opportunities for the company. The ability to move to this level of networking turns out to be a key test of leadership. Companies often recognize that networks are valuable, andthey create explicit programs to support them. But typically these programs facilitate only operational networking. Likewise, industry associations provide formal contexts for personal networking. The unfortunate effect is to give managers the impression that they know how to network and are doing so sufficiently. A sidebar notes the implication for companies' leadership development initiatives: that teaching strategic networking skills will serve their aspiring leaders and their business goals well.     

Impact of US and UK macroeconomic news announcements on the return distribution implied by FTSE-100 index options

This study investigates the effect of scheduled US and UK macroeconomic news announcements on the return distribution implied by FTSE-100 option prices. The results provide new evidence for the whole implied return distribution being systematically affected by certain macroeconomic news announcements. After controlling the unexpected content of the news announcement for quality (good vs. bad news) it is found that good (bad) news causes implied volatility to decrease (increase), option-implied return distribution becomes less (more) left-skewed and kurtosis increases (decreases). The results are consistent with the behavioral model created by Barberis et al. [Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., and Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49, 307-343.], in which good (bad) news is expected to be followed by good (bad) news.     

Do Macroeconomic Crises Always Slow Human Capital Accumulation?

The impact of macroeconomic crises on the investments made byparents in the human capital of their children is a questionof considerable policy importance. Analysis of the effects ofthe profound 1988–92 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on theschooling and employment decisions of school-age children inurban areas finds no effect on attendance rates but a significantdecline in the fraction of children who are both employed andattend school. It also finds significantly higher mean educationalattainment for children exposed to the crisis than for thosewho were not. These findings may be related: Children who arenot employed have more time available and may therefore putmore effort into school.     

Services in the new industrial economy

‘Manufacturing matters’,¹ but ‘So do services’. The future of industrialization is the future of both these increasingly intertwined and interdependent activities. Rather than a post-industrial society, we are seeing a new mode of industrialization encompassing and integrating manufacturing and services. This article considers the prospects for services in the new industrial economy,² focusing on innovation in services. Services have frequently been considered to be relatively poor in economic performance. However, regarding services as laggards is decreasingly useful when considering contemporary services, many of which are the major users, carriers and promoters of many classes of innovative hardware. New services (such as software and telematics) are performing vital roles in the diffusion of new technologies, techniques and organizational styles. This article outlines some trends in the service economy, examines the special nature of services, considers how services are changing their products and processes, and assesses emerging strategies for organization and trade in services.     

Overtime reductions: Negligible employment effects

Summary Overtime hours were worked in Germany during the period 1990–1997 primarily by well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers. In addition, it is evident that overtime is increasingly being compensated by flexible leisure schedules. The scope for potential employment effects from a reduction of paid overtime is thus constantly decreasing and is much lower than the figures cited by unions in the current discussion. If the regulations to make working time more flexible being discussed in the “Alliance for Jobs’ were to be implemented, this would reinforce the observed trend towards compensation for overtime through leisure, further diminishing the potential employment effects. If the bargaining parties or the legislators would implement a reduction of overtime nonetheless, well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers in western Germany will suffer income losses.     

Will you survive the services revolution?

Of late, offshoring and outsourcing have become political hot buttons. These o words have been conflated to mean that high-paying, white-collar jobs have been handed to well-trained but less expensive workers in India and other locales. The brouhaha over the loss of service jobs, which currently account for over 80% of private-sector employment in the United States, is not merely an American phenomenon. The fact is that service-sector jobs in all developed countries are at risk. Regardless of what the politicians now say, worry focused on offshoring and outsourcing misses the point, the author argues. We are in the middle of a fundamental change, which is that services are being industrialized. Three factors in particular are combining with outsourcing and offshoring to drive that transformation: The first is increasing global competition, where just as with manufactured goods in the recent past, foreign companies are offering more services in the United States, taking market share from U.S. companies. The second is automation: New hardware and software systems that take care of back-room and front-office tasks such as counter operations, security, billing, and order taking are allowing firms to dispense with clerical, accounting, and other staff positions. The third is self-service. Why use a travel agent when you can book your own flight, hotel, and rental car online? As these forces combine to sweep across the service sector, executives of all stripes must start thinking about arming and defending themselves, just as their manufacturing cousins did a generation ago. This will demand proactive and far-reaching changes, including focusing specifically on customer preference, quality, and technological interfaces; rewiring strategy to find new value from existing and unfamiliar sources; de-integrating and radically reassembling operational processes; and restructuring the organization to accommodate new kinds of work and skills.     

The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic*

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a dramatic economic impact in most countries. In the UK, it has led to sharp falls in labour demand in many sectors of the economy and to initial acute labour shortages in other sectors. Much more than in a typical downturn, the current crisis is not simply a general slowdown in economic activity but also a radical short-term shift in the mix of economic activities – of which an unknown, but possibly significant, amount will be persistent. The initial policy response has focused on cushioning the blow to families’ finances and allowing the majority of workers and firms to resume their original activities once the crisis subsides. These are crucial priorities. But there should also be a focus on reallocating some workers, either temporarily if working in shut-down sectors or permanently by facilitating transitions to sectors and jobs offering better prospects and facing labour shortages. The phasing-out of the furlough subsidies, which is projected to happen in Autumn 2020, brings this into even sharper focus since the alternative for many workers will be unemployment. Active labour market policy will need to be front and centre.     

Cofinanced Public Extension in Nicaragua

How effective is agricultural extension? Is it worth the vastsums governments spend to provide it, mostly as a free service,to farmers worldwide? Relatively few studies exist that measureand compare the benefits of extension activities against theircosts. In the absence of such data, this pilot activity concentratedinstead on demand. Would demand for extension services be highif they were no longer free? The existence of solid demand wouldpresuppose some benefits from the service. Further, might chargingfor the service actually improve its quality and sustainability? The pilot program in Nicaragua described here set out to testwhether a truly demand—driven extension system aimed atfarmers with small-and medium-size holdings could be developed.The principal mechanism was a contribution by the farmer paidas a bonus to the extensionist: the aim was to introduce incentivesfor providers to improve the service through rewards linkedto the quality of their work and to establish direct accountabilityof extensionist to client. The outcomes showed that the cofinancingconcept can be successful. The article describes the design,implementation, and results in the expectation that the lessonslearned may be of interest elsewhere.      

Wer trägt das Terrorrisiko?

This article deals with insuring terrorism risks and it focuses on the situation in Germany after the events of September 11^th 2001. After a brief introduction to the general problems of insuring against terrorism the authors explore how terrorism affects different lines of insurance business in Germany and examine Extremus, the German specialist insurer with government backing for insuring property risks against terrorism. A thorough analysis of different aspects of risk transfer follows. This analysis also addresses different pricing strategies for insuring against terrorism. In this section the authors focus on the question to what extend one can really speak of a risk transfer through insurance in respect to terrorism. Scenarios are developed of how large losses would affect the insurance industry as well as the customers. In regard to those scenarios it becomes visible that the risk transfer from the policyholder to the insurer is not complete.In their conclusion the authors examine some scenarios of increased and decreased terrorist activity and the effects that each of these scenarios will have on the solution of insuring against terrorism through Extremus.     

Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report that the contribution of real-time macroeconomic data to ex ante stock return predictability is similar to that of revised macroeconomic data. Moreover, the performance of an investor who had to rely on noisy real-time macroeconomic data would have been similar to the performance of an investor who had access to revised macroeconomic data.     

Job sculpting: the art of retaining your best people

Hiring good people is tough, but keeping them can be even tougher. The professionals streaming out of today's MBA programs are so well educated and achievement oriented that they could do well in virtually any job. But will they stay? According to noted career experts Timothy Butler and James Waldroop, only if their jobs fit their deeply embedded life interests--that is, their long-held, emotionally driven passions. Butler and Waldroop identify the eight different life interests of people drawn to business careers and introduce the concept of job sculpting, the art of matching people to jobs that resonate with the activities that make them truly happy. Managers don't need special training to job sculpt, but they do need to listen more carefully when employees describe what they like and dislike about their jobs. Once managers and employees have discussed deeply embedded life interests--ideally, during employee performance reviews--they can work together to customize future work assignments. In some cases, that may mean simply adding another assignment to existing responsibilities. In other cases, it may require moving that employee to a new position altogether. Skills can be stretched in many directions, but if they are not going in the right direction--one that is congruent with deeply embedded life interests--employees are at risk of becoming dissatisfied and uncommitted. And in an economy where a company's most important asset is the knowledge, energy, and loyalty of its people, that's a large risk to take.