我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思”

我国社会养老保险制度历经二十多年的改革和发展,建立了覆盖城乡的基本养老保险制度,但理论和实践中仍然存在不少对养老保险基本问题的混乱认识,本文讨论了关于我国基本养老保险的十个“迷思（myths）”①,澄清了在这些问题上普遍存在的认识误区。包括：基金制比现收现付制更能应对人口老龄化危机,养老保险个人账户采取“实账户”优于“名义账户”,养老保险存在巨额支付缺口,养老保险结余基金面临严重的资金贬损风险,养老保险存在的隐性债务使制度不可持续,现收现付养老保险不存在与隐性债务对应的“隐性资产”,基本养老保险提供的养老金替代率低于国际警戒水平,基本养老保险有利于高收入者,基本养老保险的缴费时间越长内含回报反而越低,对不同类型人员建立统一的养老保险制度才是公平的。     

山西企业职工基本养老保险精算报告

山西省作为一个能源大省和老工业基地,国有企业众多,离退休职工规模大,养老的压力重。山西省还是养老保险制度个人账户做实的试点省份,正在从旧的现收现付制过渡到社会统筹与个人帐户相结合的新的养老保险制度。在新旧制度转轨中,需要测算旧制度积累的债务和在新制度下的分摊方法、过渡成本、基金缺口和长期偿付能力等。省财政厅社会保障处用精算方法计算出了在各种风险下养老保险的成本和债务,为建立可持续的、稳定的养老保险制度提供了依据,这无疑是财政管理向精细化、科学化迈进的一个良好开端。现将精算报告的主要内容予以刊登,供参考。     

我国基本养老保险基金管理模式探讨

一、我国基本养老保险基金管理的现状 我国现行的养老保险制度,实行社会统筹与个人账户相结合的模式.基本养老保险基金由社会统筹基金和个人账户两部分组成,其中个人账户由参加基本养老保险人员的个人缴费和企业缴费的一定比例组成,其余的企业缴费和一定的财政拨款计入统筹基金.目前我国的养老保险事务完全由政府统一管理,由政府垄断经营,并且在具体的基本管理上实行"属地负责、属地所有",即由各省级政府部门实际负责基金的管理和运用.     

后疫情时代失业保险基金可持续性与经济调节功能研究

本文在理论分析的基础上,通过构建我国失业保险基金精算模型对新冠肺炎疫情冲击后失业保险基金的可持续性和经济调节功能进行研究,并通过政策仿真研究不同政策参数对失业保险基金周期性平衡的影响。研究发现:第一,新冠肺炎疫情冲击后2020~2035年我国失业保险基金当期缺口均在90亿元及以上,其中2020年基金当期收不抵支问题严峻;第二,疫情冲击后2020~2025年基金累计结余不断减少且消耗速度较快,若无其他政策干预,2025年累计结余将耗尽;第三,由于失业保险阶段性"免、减、缓、返、补、扩"系列政策的出台,疫后失业保险制度的经济调节功能凸显,但仍存在改进空间;第四,费率、参保率、费基占比(实际缴费基数占应缴费基数的比重)的提高和城镇登记失业率的降低均能在一定程度上减少基金当期缺口,延缓基金累计结余耗尽时间,但只有参保率和费基占比的提高以及城镇登记失业率的降低才能促进基金经济调节功能的进一步发挥;第五,参保率、费基占比和城镇登记失业率三项政策参数的复合和综合变化能够放大其对基金周期性平衡的调节效应,在本文提供的四项政策组合中,最优可使2020~2035年仅存在6年当期缺口,基金累计结余耗尽时间推迟至2035年后。因此,建议继续扩大失业保险制度覆盖面、进一步夯实失业保险缴费基数、灵活调整失业保险金最长领取月数。     

国资划转对企业职工基本养老保险降费空间影响的研究

基于企业职工基本养老保险基金收支精算平衡原理,本文建立企业职工基本养老保险缴费率模型,探讨国资划转对企业职工基本养老保险降费空间的影响。研究发现,国资划转能为养老保险提供降费空间;但当前国资划转比例为养老保险提供的降费空间十分有限;若加大国资划转比例,养老保险降费空间可以提升。进一步研究改变缴费基数对国资划转为养老保险贡献的缴费空间的影响,发现缴费基数增加后,企业平衡缴费率降低,国资划转为养老保险降费率提供的空间减小。本文建议通过提高国有资产划转充实养老保险基金的比例、进行养老保险征管体制改革以做实缴费基数,从而改革和完善企业职工基本养老保险制度。     

税务征收体制下的基本养老保险个人缴费基数:问题、机制与对策

个人缴费基数是基本养老保险制度的关键参量之一。我国现行的个人缴费基数政策主要问题在于:一是核定过程复杂且难度大,因核定不到位导致的少缴和漏缴现象突出;二是以上年度月平均工资作为当期缴费基数的规定不合理;三是以职工平均工资的60%作为缴费基数下限加重了低工资收入者的缴费负担,易对其形成制度性挤出;四是社会保险费的征管流程存在制度性漏洞。在统筹推进基本养老保险全国统筹和社会保险费征收体制改革的关键时期,完善个人缴费基数政策应以增强规范性和统一性为重点。基于个人缴费基数的"两阶段"形成机制,本文建议应考虑工资结构差异,对企业职工、机关事业单位职工和灵活就业人员分别使用排除法、列举法和定额法来核定应缴费工资;将缴费基数下限降低至各地最低工资标准;将计算周期改为与工资、薪金所得个人所得税保持一致,实现税费同步计算、同征同管。     

中国养老保险制度转轨探析

中国社会养老体系究竟应该采用现收现付制还是基金积累制,学术界历来有争议,至今未有定论.但在现实中,养老保险的筹资模式逐渐由现收现付制向基金积累制靠拢. 中国养老保险制度的 历史沿革及存在的问题 建国初期,养老保险制度覆盖了城镇的所有劳动力,实行现收现付的待遇确定型模式;上世纪80年代中期,中国开启了养老保险制度改革之路;1993年确定了"社会统筹与个人账户相结合"的养老保险改革目标,1997年进一步明确了由现收现付制向"统账结合"的新体制过渡方案,确立了养老保险社会统筹(现收现付部分)与个人账户(基金积累部分)相结合的混合型体制,这种混合养老保险模式实行部分积累制,并沿用至今.     

人民银行分支机构多支柱养老保险制度构想及精算分析

人民银行分支机构养老统筹基金缺口逐年增大,而且从长期来看有愈演愈烈之势,现行养老统筹制度运行机制亟待改革。着眼于我国社会保障制度的发展实际,结合国外公职人员养老保险制度的改革趋势,本文在人民银行分支机构多支柱养老保险制度模式初步构想的基础上,对新型养老保险制度进行精算分析,通过对补充养老保险账户投资收益率与缴费比例的测算,确保第三支柱养老金收支平衡时可提供35%左右的替代率水平。从而论证人民银行分支机构新型多支柱养老保险制度在提供80%替代率水平下可实现收支平衡,并进入可持续发展的良性制度循环。     

“名义全账户”模式下城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支预测

在人口预测以及对主要制度参数变动进行合理假设的基础上,本文按照"名义全账户"模式,对现行退休年龄和两个延迟退休方案条件下2015-2050年企业职工基本养老保险收支进行预测。研究结果显示,在"名义全账户"模式下,测算区间内城镇企业职工社会养老保险在部分或全部年份存在基金收支缺口,按照3%利率水平计算的各年基金收支结余之和2015年现值均为负值,"名义全账户"模式并不能完全解决养老保险基金收支缺口问题,城镇企业职工社会养老保险需要额外的资金补充才能实现基金收支平衡。     

浅议中国基本养老保险制度改革

背景 随着人口老龄化、就业方式多样化和城市化的发展,中国现行企业职工基本养老保险制度显现出一些与社会经济发展不相适应的问题.养老金计发办法不尽合理,缺乏参保缴费的激励约束机制;基本养老金调整机制还不健全,养老金总体水平还不高.同时,这一制度的覆盖范围不够广泛,大量城镇个体工商户和灵活就业人员还没有参保;养老保险个人账户没有做实,未能真正实现部分积累的制度模式,难以应对人口老龄化对基金的需求.     

Do initial public offering firms manage accruals? Evidence from individual accounts

We examine whether initial public offering (IPO) firms exercise discretion over an individual accrual account on the balance sheet—the allowance for uncollectible accounts—and an individual accrual account on the income statement—bad debt expense. Our research design exploits a unique disclosure requirement related to these accounts (i.e., the ex post disclosure of write-offs of uncollectible accounts), which enables us to develop refined expectation models. We provide evidence that IPO firms have conservative, not aggressive, allowances in the annual periods adjacent to their stock offerings. In fact, the average IPO firm has an allowance that is over four-times leading write-offs. We also provide evidence that IPO firms record larger, not smaller, bad debt expense and are less likely to record income-increasing bad debt expense than matched non-IPO firms. These results challenge the view that IPO firms understate receivables-related accrual accounts.     

The Determinants of Long‐Term Corporate Debt Issuances

A significant proportion of the debt issued by investment‐grade firms has maturities greater than 20 years. In this paper we provide evidence that gap‐filling behavior is an important determinant of these very long‐term issues. Using data on individual corporate debt issues between 1987 and 2009, we find that gap‐filling behavior is more prominent in the very long end of the maturity spectrum where the required risk capital makes arbitrage costly. In addition, changes in the supply of long‐term government bonds affect not just the choice of maturity but also the overall level of corporate borrowing.     

Leverage,Moral Hazard,and Liquidity

Financial firms raise short‐term debt to finance asset purchases; this induces risk shifting when economic conditions worsen and limits their ability to roll over debt. Constrained firms de‐lever by selling assets to lower‐leverage firms. In turn, asset–market liquidity depends on the system‐wide distribution of leverage, which is itself endogenous to future economic prospects. Good economic prospects yield cheaper short‐term debt, inducing entry of higher‐leverage firms. Consequently, adverse asset shocks in good times lead to greater de‐leveraging and sudden drying up of market and funding liquidity.     

我国养老保险个人账户给付期研究——基于平均余命视角

依据平均余命可以测算出养老保险个人账户超支月数,由个人账户超支月数可以判断养老保险个人账户给付期的合理性。通过对城镇职工养老保险制度、城镇居民养老保险制度和新型农村养老保险制度个人账户超支的测算,发现中国城乡居民平均余命延长导致养老保险个人账户存在超支,并且个人账户超支存在明显的性别差异和城乡差异的特点,说明中国养老保险个人账户给付期设计不合理。建议按照平均余命设计差异的养老保险个人账户给付期。     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

A Gap‐Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice

We argue that time variation in the maturity of corporate debt arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that when the government funds itself with more short‐term debt, firms fill the resulting gap by issuing more long‐term debt, and vice versa. This type of liquidity provision is undertaken more aggressively: (1) when the ratio of government debt to total debt is higher and (2) by firms with stronger balance sheets. Our theory sheds new light on market timing phenomena in corporate finance more generally.     

Enhanced Debt Management: Solving the eurozone crisis by linking debt management with fiscal and monetary policy

Unconventional approaches to suit unusual circumstances have become acceptable in monetary policy, a formerly highly conservative discipline. In this paper it is argued that unconventional approaches should also be considered in sovereign debt management, in order to contribute to resolving the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. First, the Troika crisis lending to indebted sovereign borrowers in the eurozone is reviewed and compared with standard IMF post-crisis lending. The main difference and shortcoming is the unsustainable character of the eurozone approach, due to the omission of demand stimulation components. To address this and other shortcomings, the features of an ideal alternative funding tool are identified. It would solve the funding problems of affected sovereigns, help stabilise the banking system, but most of all stimulate domestic demand and hence end the vicious downward spiral. It is found that this funding method can be implemented as part of enhanced public debt management by each nation's debt management office.     

Individual voluntary arrangements: A ‘fresh start’ for salaried consumer debtors in England and Wales

Since the mid‐1990s the number of consumer insolvencies in England and Wales has grown exponentially. The UK's Insolvency Act 1986 offers two formal responses to personal insolvency: bankruptcy and individual voluntary arrangements (‘IVAs’). While consumers have used both these debt relief mechanisms in increasing numbers in recent years, IVAs—regulated agreements between debtors and creditors facilitated by a licensed insolvency practitioner, usually taking the form of a 5‐year payment plan—grew faster than bankruptcies between 2003 and 2006. However, the level of new IVA approvals fell back in 2007 and the first half of 2008. This article charts the transformation of the IVA from a bankruptcy alternative originally designed for insolvent traders and professionals into a tool of consumer debt relief. It then seeks to explain both the stellar rise in IVA usage among consumer debtors and the subsequent stalling of IVA growth. The rise of consumer IVAs can be attributed largely to supply side changes in the market for debt resolution—in particular the emergence of volume providers commonly referred to as ‘IVA factories’—while a sustained backlash against the procedure and the providers instigated by institutional creditors demanding higher recoveries accounts for the subsequent decline in approvals. The article concludes by considering the near‐term prospects for consumer IVAs within the context of the increasingly complex UK debt resolution market. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks

We examine the implications of the sovereign debt tensions on the Italian credit market by estimating the effect of the 10-year BTP-Bund spread on a wide array of bank interest rates, categories of loans and income statement variables. We exploit the heterogeneity between large and small intermediaries to assess to what extent the transmission of sovereign risk differed in relation with different banks’ balance-sheet characteristics and business strategies. Regarding the cost of funding, we find that changes in the BTP-Bund spread have a sizeable effect on the interest rates on term deposits and newly issued bonds but virtually no effect on overnight deposits. Furthermore, the sovereign spread significantly affects the cost of credit for firms and households and exerts a negative effect on loan growth. All these results are magnified when considering alone the five largest banks, which are typically less capitalized, have a larger funding gap and incidence of bad loans and rely more on non-traditional banking activities. Sovereign tensions also affect the main items of banks’ income statement.     

Too much of a good thing? A theory of short-term debt as a sorting device

This paper shows that the liquidity risk associated with short-term debt financing can be used to sort insolvent firms out of financial markets when their solvency risk is private information. Notwithstanding this sorting role of short-term debt, unregulated financial firms tend to choose an inefficiently short debt maturity structure. This inefficiency arises for two reasons. First, by issuing more short-term debt, low-risk firms reduce their expected funding costs. This leads to a misalignment of private and social incentives as firms fail to fully internalize the social costs of becoming illiquid. Second, while the sorting role of short-term debt is reflected in a decline of long-term interest rates when more short-term debt is issued, creditors’ inability to observe firms’ solvency risk leads to an excessive reduction of long-term interest rates. This further distorts firms’ funding choice towards short-term debt.