CAT Bonds and Other Risk-Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments

This article reviews the current status of the market for catastrophic risk (CAT) bonds and other risk-linked securities. CAT bonds and other risk-linked securities are innovative financial vehicles that have an important role to play in financing mega-catastrophes and other types of losses. The vehicles are especially important because they access capital markets directly, exponentially expanding risk-bearing capacity beyond the limited capital held by insurers and reinsurers. The CAT bond market has been growing steadily, with record amounts of risk capital raised in 2005, 2006, and 2007. CAT bond premia relative to expected losses covered by the bonds have declined by more than one-third since 2001. CAT bonds now appear to be priced competitively with conventional catastrophe reinsurance and comparably rated corporate bonds. CAT bonds have grown to the extent that they now play a major role in completing the market for catastrophic-risk finance and are spreading to other lines such as automobile insurance, life insurance, and annuities. CAT bonds are not expected to replace reinsurance but to complement the reinsurance market by providing additional risk-bearing capacity. Other innovative financing mechanisms such as risk swaps, industry loss warranties, and sidecars also are expected to continue to play an important role in financing catastrophic risk.     

The Economic Effects of Federal Participation in Terrorism Risk

The catastrophic terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 caused unprecedented insured losses. While the insurance industry covered these losses, it also took swift steps to limit its exposure to such risks in the future. In response to ensuing market dislocations, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) was passed in 2002. The law temporarily requires primary insurers to offer terrorism coverage and creates a federal "backstop" to limit losses on such coverage. In anticipation of the program's scheduled expiration, and to inform debate on its possible extension, this article analyzes market developments in the wake of 9/11 and the passage of TRIA. We find that to date, TRIA has facilitated private sector participation in the market for terrorism insurance by lending structure to an otherwise ill-defined risk. While alternative terrorism risk bearing mechanisms are evolving, none appear ready to replace federal involvement presently. We conclude that a continuation of TRIA for a period of time would enhance U.S. economic performance in the near term. Failing to extend TRIA in the near term would result in decreased economic performance absent another major terrorist attack and greater instability, job loss, and bankruptcy in the event of another attack.     

Insurance Derivatives: A New Asset Class for the Capital Markets and a New Hedging Tool for the Insurance Industry

The number and severity of natural catastrophes has increased dramatically over the last decade. As a result, there is now a shortage of capacity in the property catastrophe insurance industry in the U.S. This article discusses how insurance derivatives, particularly the Chicago Board of Trade's catastrophe options contracts, represent a possible solution to this problem. These new financial instruments enable the capital markets to provide the insurance industry with the reinsurance capacity it needs. The capital markets are willing to perform this role because of the new asset class characteristics of securitized insurance risk: positive excess returns and diversification benefits.
The article also demonstrates how insurance companies can use insurance derivatives such as catastrophe options and catastrophe-linked bonds as effective, low-cost risk management tools. In reviewing the performance of the catastrophe contracts to date, the authors report promising signs of growth and liquidity in these markets.     

Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk-Transfer Solutions

One of the most significant economic developments of the past decade has been the convergence of the financial services industry, particularly the capital markets and (re)insurance sectors. Convergence has been driven by the increase in the frequency and severity of catastrophic risk, market inefficiencies created by (re)insurance underwriting cycles, advances in computing and communications technologies, the emergence of enterprise risk management, and other factors. These developments have led to the development of hybrid insurance/financial instruments that blend elements of financial contracts with traditional reinsurance as well as new financial instruments patterned on asset-backed securities, futures, and options that provide direct access to capital markets. This article provides a survey and overview of the hybrid and pure financial markets instruments and provides new information on the pricing and returns on contracts such as industry loss warranties and Cat bonds.     

WHERE'S THE CAT GOING? SOME OBSERVATIONS ON CATASTROPHE BONDS

This article provides an assessment of the current state of the market for catastrophe (or "Cat") bonds. Given the changes in insurance markets since September 11th, the demand for Cat bonds is likely to increase. For issuers, Cat bonds have the effect of transferring risks to the capital markets that would normally be underwritten by insurance or reinsurance companies. And as a substitute for insurance, Cat bonds have the potential to help issuers address problems such as lack of capacity and real risk transfer, cyclicality, and credit risk that are commonly associated with insurance and reinsurance markets. Investors value Cat bonds in part because of their low correlations with stocks and conventional bonds. Notable trends in the structuring of the products involve higher levels of risk transfer, longer-term contracts, and linkage to a portfolio of catastrophic risks.     

Management von Terrorrisiken in Deutschland — eine empirische Analyse

In this article insurance is considered as a means for allocating terrorism risk. After September 11^th, 2001 several countries, among them Germany, Great Britain, and the United States, have intervened on the markets for terrorism insurance. In Germany a primary insurance company was founded by the government and private insurers to supply cover for this peril. Using a full dataset of the demand for terrorism insurance this paper provides an evaluation of the intervention on the market for terrorism insurance in Germany. The results derived are then used to suggest ways to improve the allocation of terrorism risk in Germany.     

Does Reinsurance Need Reinsurers?

The reinsurance market is the secondary market for insurance risks. It has a very specific organization. Direct insurers rarely trade risks with each other. Rather, they cede part of their primary risks to specialized professional reinsurers who have no primary business. This article offers a model of equilibrium in reinsurance and capital markets in which professional reinsurers arise endogenously. Their role is to monitor primary insurers credibly, so that insurers can raise capital more easily. In equilibrium, the financial structure of primary insurers consists of a mix of reinsurance and outside capital. The comparative statics yield empirical predictions which are broadly in line with a number of stylized facts from the reinsurance market.     

Securitization, Insurance, and Reinsurance

This article considers strengths and weaknesses of reinsurance and securitization in managing insurable risks. Traditional reinsurance operates efficiently in managing relatively small, uncorrelated risks and in facilitating efficient information sharing between cedants and reinsurers. However, when the magnitude of potential losses and the correlation of risks increase, the efficiency of the reinsurance model breaks down, and the cost of capital may become uneconomical. At this juncture, securitization has a role to play by passing the risks along to broader capital markets. Securitization also serves as a complement for reinsurance in other ways such as facilitating regulatory arbitrage and collateralizing low-frequency risks.     

Internal Versus External Capital Markets in the Insurance Industry: The Role of Reinsurance

This study compares internal and external sources of capital in the insurance industry by analyzing reinsurance activity between affiliated and unaffiliated insurers. Tests are performed using data from a large sample of property-liability insurers that are affiliated with at least one other property-liability insurer. Results indicate that while demands for internal and external reinsurance have some factors in common, there are cost-based differences in internal and external capital, as well as structural differences in the use of internal and external reinsurance. Results are consistent with previous theories related to internal versus external capital markets.     

Capital, corporate income taxes, and catastrophe insurance

We provide estimates of the equity capital needed and the resulting tax costs incurred when supplying catastrophe insurance/reinsurance using a partial equilibrium model that incorporates a specific loss distribution for US catastrophe losses. After consideration of insurer investment in tax-exempt securities, tax loss carry-back/forward provisions, and personal taxes, our results imply that the tax costs of equity finance alone have a substantial effect on the cost of supplying catastrophe reinsurance. These results help explain a variety of industry developments that reduce tax costs. Also, when coupled with non-tax costs of capital, these results help explain the limited scope of catastrophe insurance/reinsurance.     

An empirical analysis of the economic impact of federal terrorism reinsurance

This paper examines the role of the federal government in the market for terrorism reinsurance. We investigate the stock price response of affected industries to a sequence of 13 events culminating in the enactment of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) of 2002. In the industries most likely to be affected by TRIA—banking, construction, insurance, real estate investment trusts, transportation, and public utilities-the stock price effect was primarily negative. The Act was at best value-neutral for property-casualty insurers because it eliminated the option not to offer terrorism insurance. The negative response of the other industries may be attributable to the Act's impeding more efficient private market solutions, failing to address nuclear, chemical, and biological hazards, and reducing market expectations of federal assistance following future terrorist attacks.     

The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination

This paper examines the market for catastrophe event risk – i.e., financial claims that are linked to losses associated with natural hazards, such as hurricanes and earthquakes. Risk management theory suggests protection by insurers and other corporations against the largest cat events is most valuable. However, most insurers purchase relatively little cat reinsurance against large events, and premiums are high relative to expected losses. To understand why the theory fails, we examine transactions that look to capital markets, rather than traditional reinsurance markets, for risk-bearing capacity. We develop eight theoretical explanations and find the most compelling to be supply restrictions associated with capital market imperfections and market power exerted by traditional reinsurers.     

Learning about Risk: Some Lessons from Insurance

This paper argues that in the fundamental subject of financial risk analysis, some valuable lessons may be drawn from insurance. The probability of ruin, defined as a first passage time, carries a dynamic element whose absence in Value at Risk is one liability, among others. Extreme value theory, which has been successfully applied to insurance shortly after it was introduced in probability, may offer a coherent framework for analyzing the extreme moves such as the ones observed in recent foreign exchange and financial crises. Lastly, we show that the genuine hazards generated by global capital markets and illustrated by the events of summer 1998, generate a market incompleteness that existing models of defaultable bonds do not fully address. However, the long experience of risk premium analysis in the insurance and reinsurance industry, as well as the existence of historical data on natural disasters, render the valuation of catastrophe bonds less perilous than that of defaultable bonds.     

The Risk‐Sharing Implications of Disaster Insurance Funds

We study the risk‐sharing implications that arise from introducing a disaster insurance fund to the cat insurance market. Such a form of intervention can increase efficiency in the private market, and our design of disaster insurance suggests a prominent role of catastrophe reinsurance. The model predicts buyers will increase their demand in the private market, and the seller will lower prices to such an extent that their revenues decrease upon introduction of disaster insurance. We test two predictions in the context of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA). It is already known that the introduction of TRIA led to negative abnormal returns in the insurance industry. In addition, we show this negative effect is stronger for larger and for low‐risk‐averse firms—two results that are consistent with our model. The seller’s risk aversion plays an important role in quantifying such feedback effects, and we point toward possible distortions in which a firm may even be overhedged upon introduction of disaster insurance.     

On the Implications of the Internet for Insurance Markets and Institutions

By most accounts, the Internet and related advances in information technology significantly affect financial services in general and insurance markets and institutions in particular. Coupled with other important trends such as globalization and regulatory reform, these changes are forcing far‐reaching changes upon the insurance industry and making it more competitive. This article focuses specifically on the implications of the Internet for insurance markets and institutions. The conventional wisdom that the Internet constitutes a sufficient condition for the disintermediation of traditional insurance distribution networks is called into question. To the extent that the Internet reduces transaction costs, it will create opportunities for new intermediaries as well as for existing ones. It will also influence product design, in some cases making it economically attractive to unbundle and repackage various forms of coverage. By removing entry barriers and reducing insurance costs, the Internet will also provide a private market solution to a major insurance regulatory concern—enhancing insurance affordability and availability.     

Risk-sharing function in internal capital markets: Evidence from intragroup reinsurance activities

This study explicitly investigates the risk-sharing function of internal capital markets by analyzing intragroup reinsurance (a substitute for capital) activities in the United States' non-life insurance sector. We find supporting evidence that intragroup reinsurance participants are generally associated with smoother income flows, and such an income smoothing effect exists for both ceding and assuming firms. Further to prior studies, we find that internal reinsurance ceded exerts both direct and indirect effects on premiums growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. In addition to direct capacity support, the reduction in income volatility is another channel through which intragroup reinsurance enhances ceding firms' premiums growth. In the presence of market turmoil, the risk-sharing function can lower member firms' insolvency risk and thus enable them to pursue business growth.     

How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets

Terrorist attacks that have succeeded abroad since 2001, as well as others that were prevented, indicate that the threat of a large‐scale attack is real and will be with us for a long time. Focusing on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this article analyzes the role that insurance can play in providing commercial enterprises with financial protection against the economic consequences of major terrorist attacks. The article begins by explaining the design and key features of terrorism insurance programs operating today in each of the three countries (TRIA in the U.S., Pool Re in the U.K., and Extremus in Germany). The authors then provide a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of prices and take‐up rates (based on as yet unpublished data), with particular attention to financial institutions. For those who think the U.S. is the most likely target for mega‐terrorism, the findings are somewhat puzzling. On average, for example, companies in the U.S. do not pay even half as much for comparable coverage under TRIA as companies pay in Germany under Extremus, which raises the questions: Is terrorism coverage under the U.S. insurance program now drastically underpriced? If so, what would be the likely consequences of another large‐scale attack in the U.S.? On the demand side, the authors observe a dramatic increase in take‐up rates in the U.S. since 2003, revealing increased corporate concern. By contrast, the market penetration in Germany remains remarkably low. A better understanding of these programs and of the recent evolution of terrorism insurance markets in the U.S. and Europe should help corporate and government decision makers develop more effective protection against the economic consequences of mega‐terrorism.     

Market Price of Insurance Risk Implied by Catastrophe Derivatives

Abstract

Insurance derivatives facilitate the trading of insurance risks on capital markets, such as catastrophe derivatives that were traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Simultaneously, insurance risks are traded through reinsurance portfolios. In this paper we make inferences about the market price of risk implied by the information embedded in the prices of these two assets.     

Are publicly held firms less efficient? Evidence from the US property-liability insurance industry

This paper studies the performance of publicly held firms in the US property-liability insurance industry by analyzing companies that issued initial public offerings (IPOs) from 1994 to 2005, using private firms as the benchmark. I investigate ex ante determinants and ex post effects of IPOs on firm efficiency, operating performance, and other financials. I also analyze stock returns and follow-on SEO and acquisition activities to provide further information on IPO motivation. The paper finds that the likelihood of an IPO significantly increases with firm size and premium growth. IPO firms experience no post-issue underperformance in efficiency, operations, or stock returns; register improvement in allocative and cost efficiency; and reduce financial leverage and reinsurance usage. Moreover, IPO firms are active in follow-on SEO issues and acquisition activities. The findings are mostly consistent with the theory that firms go public for easier access to capital and to ease capital constraints.     

Optimal Reinsurance Arrangements Under Tail Risk Measures

Regulatory authorities demand insurance companies control their risk exposure by imposing stringent risk management policies. This article investigates the optimal risk management strategy of an insurance company subject to regulatory constraints. We provide optimal reinsurance contracts under different tail risk measures and analyze the impact of regulators' requirements on risk sharing in the reinsurance market. Our results underpin adverse incentives for the insurer when compulsory Value-at-Risk risk management requirements are imposed. But economic effects may vary when regulatory constraints involve other risk measures. Finally, we compare the obtained optimal designs to existing reinsurance contracts and alternative risk transfer mechanisms on the capital market.