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1.
Ederington (1979) proposed an effectiveness measure for futures hedging. Since then, this measure has been widely adopted in the literature to compare different hedge ratios against the OLS (ordinary least squares) hedge ratio. This note attempts to demonstrate this application is inappropriate. Ederington hedging effectiveness is only useful for measuring the risk reduction effect of the OLS hedge ratio. It does not apply to other hedge ratios and therefore should not serve as a criterion to compare different hedge strategies against the OLS strategy. A strict application of this measure almost always leads to an incorrect conclusion stating that the OLS hedge ratio is the best hedging strategy.  相似文献   

2.
In a free capital mobile world with increased volatility, the need for an optimal hedge ratio and its effectiveness is warranted to design a better hedging strategy with future contracts. This study analyses four competing time series econometric models with daily data on NSE Stock Index Futures and S&P CNX Nifty Index. The effectiveness of the optimal hedge ratios is examined through the mean returns and the average variance reduction between the hedged and the unhedged positions for 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-day horizons. The results clearly show that the time-varying hedge ratio derived from the multivariate GARCH model has higher mean return and higher average variance reduction across hedged and unhedged positions. Even though not outperforming the GARCH model, the simple OLS-based strategy performs well at shorter time horizons. The potential use of this multivariate GARCH model cannot be sublined because of its estimation complexities. However, from a cost of computation point of view, one can equally consider the simple OLS strategy that performs well at the shorter time horizons.  相似文献   

3.
本文以沪铜期货的多头套期保值为研究对象,分别利用OLS模型、ECM模型和GARCH模型对一月期铜和三月期铜的套期保值比例及保值效果进行了分析,发现OLS模型对一月期铜的套期保值效果要优于其他模型的保值效果,而ECM模型和GARCH模型在三月期铜的套期保值方面显示的效果更好。这说明在一般情况下,具有动态特征的计量模型适合于较长的期货合约,其套期保值效果更好。  相似文献   

4.
This paper focuses on the impact of the 1997 Asian financial market crisis upon hedging effectiveness within the KOSPI 200 stock index and index futures markets. The paper utilizes the inter-temporal relationship between the two markets to examine the characteristics of several minimum variance hedge ratios. It also examines the performances of alternative hedging strategies for dynamic portfolio management in the presence of cointegrated time-varying risks. The results show a decline in the persistence of conditional volatility within market prices after the crisis. This decline leads to the relative performance of utilizing constant hedge ratios to increase, though not significantly so to guarantee a superior performance over more sophisticated time-varying hedge ratio strategies.  相似文献   

5.
Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 133 requires business entities to document their anticipation of hedge effectiveness in order to qualify for hedge accounting treatment of gains and losses from financial derivatives. In the absence of specific guidelines, the accounting industry has espoused the "80–125" rule for determining hedge effectiveness. But the authors observe that meaningful assessment of anticipated hedge effectiveness must consider two distinct aspects of a firm's hedging strategy: (1) the strength of the hedging relationship, which is determined by the choice of the hedging instrument; and (2) the position taken in the hedging instrument relative to the holdings of the hedged item. They take both aspects of hedging into consideration in developing alternative measures of hedge effectiveness and distinguishing between the potential and attained effectiveness of a particular hedge. This approach enables the user to evaluate the relative merits of alternative hedging strategies to support risk management decisions, and also to document a selected hedging strategy's anticipated effectiveness for purposes of compliance with FAS 133. While the authors endorse a fairly broad interpretation of hedge effectiveness, their approach can also be used in the narrower context of an "80–125" rule.  相似文献   

6.
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether commodities are effective hedges for equity holders. We employ three different methodologies to calculate time varying hedge ratios. First, we examine time-varying hedge ratios and how much portfolio risk can be reduced relative to a long position in the S&P 500. We calculate hedge ratios from realized variances and covariances; second, we estimate a recursive multivariate GARCH (BEKK) model and calculate the hedge ratios from the estimated covariances; and thirdly, we calculate the hedge ratios by estimating recursive OLS regressions. The results of our paper are very clear. First, commodities are not effective hedges for the S&P 500. Equity market investors and asset managers looking for a way to manage and reduce portfolio risk will be well advised to search for alternative hedges for the S&P 500 than commodities. Second, our results do not support the claim that commodities were a good hedge for the equity market during the financial crisis.  相似文献   

7.
We investigate the effect of marking-to-market on an optimal futures hedge under stochastic interest rates. An intertemporal optimal hedge ratio that accounts for basis risk and marking-to-market is derived. This ratio includes all previous hedge ratios, with constant interest rates as special cases. In a preliminary empirical study using S&P 500 index futures contracts, we demonstrate that the futures-forward hedging differential is nontrivial, especially in risk-return optimization. We also show that the covariances between interest rates and spot and futures prices explain the differential: the larger the covariances are, the larger the differential will be.  相似文献   

8.
恒生指数和沪深300股指期货套期保值效果对比研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
贺鹏  杨招军 《投资研究》2012,(4):123-133
本文利用OLS、ECM、ECM-GARCH模型对沪深300股指期货和恒生指数期货的最优套期保值率进行了估算,并在风险最小化框架下对它们的套期保值效果进行了对比研究。结果发现:无论是哪种股指期货,不考虑期现货间存在的协整关系会使估算的最优套期保值率偏高,影响套期保值效果;其次是虽然在样本内外,沪深300股指期货的套期保值效果比恒生指数期货的好,但是沪深300股指期货套期保值效果的稳定性比恒生指数差。此时,ECM-GARCH和OLS模型分别为样本内外投资者利用沪深300指数期货进行套期保值时的最佳选择;对于恒生指数股指期货,最优模型是ECM。  相似文献   

9.
This paper examines the hedging effectiveness of the FTSE/ATHEX-20 and FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 stock index futures contracts in the relatively new and fairly unresearched futures market of Greece. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging performances using weekly and daily data are examined, considering both constant and time-varying hedge ratios. Results indicate that time-varying hedging strategies provide incremental risk-reduction benefits in-sample, but under-perform simple constant hedging strategies out-of-sample. Moreover, futures contracts serve effectively their risk management role and compare favourably with results in other international stock index futures markets. Estimation of investor utility functions and corresponding optimal utility maximising hedge ratios yields similar results, in terms of model selection. For the FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 contracts we identify the existence of speculative components, which lead to utility-maximising hedge ratios, that are different to the minimum variance hedge ratio solutions.  相似文献   

10.
Most hedges placed in futures markets must be lifted before contract expiration, which necessitates incurring “basis risk.” The focus of this paper is on quantifying such risk as a function of the timing of a hedge, its duration, distance from contract expiration, hedge life, and other market-observable variables. The development of basis-risk profiles provides a hedger with estimates of hedging risks that reasonably can be expected before the actual placement of hedges, thus serving as a useful input in the hedging decision.  相似文献   

11.
We propose a model for constructing Asian funds of hedge funds. We compare the accuracy of forecasts of hedge fund returns using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, a nonparametric regression model, and a nonlinear nonparametric model. We backtest to assess these forecasts using three different portfolio construction processes: an “optimized” portfolio, an equally-weighted portfolio, and the Kelly criterion-based portfolio. We find that the Kelly criterion is a reasonable method for constructing a fund of hedge funds, producing better results than a basic optimization or an equally-weighted portfolio construction method. Our backtests also indicate that the nonparametric forecasts and the OLS forecasts produce similar performance at the hedge fund index level. At the individual fund level, our analysis indicates that the OLS forecasts produce higher directional accuracy than the nonparametric methods but the nonparametric methods produce more accurate forecasts than OLS. In backtests, the highest information ratio to predict hedge fund returns is obtained from a combination of the OLS regression with the Fung–Hsieh eight-factor variables as predictors using the Kelly criterion portfolio construction method. Similarly, the highest information ratio using forecasts generated from a combination of the nonparametric regression using the Fung–Hsieh eight-factor model variables is achieved using the Kelly criterion portfolio construction method. Simulations using risk-adjusted total returns indicate that the nonparametric regression model generates superior information ratios than the analogous backtest results using the OLS. However, the benefits of diversification plateau with portfolios of more than 20 hedge funds. These results generally hold with portfolio implementation lags up to 12 months.  相似文献   

12.
Hedge funds are attracting increased attention because of their reputation for earning superior (risk-adjusted) returns. Hedge Fund Research Inc. estimates that in 2001 there were about 7,000 hedge funds with investor capital of about $600 billion. And yet the diversity of hedge funds, combined with a general lack of transparency, makes the hedge fund industry something of a "black box."
This article provides an overview of the legal structure of hedge funds, the various fund investment strategies, and the existing research on overall hedge fund performance. Without uniform and comprehensive reporting requirements, it is difficult to ascertain the size and scope of hedge fund investments. Nonetheless, current research provides persuasive evidence that hedge funds earn positive risk-adjusted returns, on average, in contrast to their counterparts in the mutual fund industry. In an attempt to explain these higher returns, the authors begin by noting that hedge funds are subject to considerably less regulation than other investment institutions because their client base is limited to wealthy individuals and institutions. Hedge funds can thus employ investment strategies that mutual funds and pension funds are prohibited from pursuing, such as short selling, high leverage, derivatives, concentrated holdings, and limited redemptions. As a result, the funds may be able to earn excess returns by operating in illiquid and specialized markets where there is a shortage of arbitrage capital. At the same time, and perhaps even more important, hedge funds are in a better position than conventional mutual funds to attract skilled managers because of their use of performance-based incentive fee structures.  相似文献   

13.
This paper simulates forward hedging of foreign exchange risks for U.S. investments in U.K., German and French equities. Rolling OLS and SUR regressions are used to obtain monthly exposure coefficients (hedge ratios), and the micro-market mechanics of the exchange rate bid-ask spread are considered throughout. While the coefficient of variation favors not hedging, no statistically significant differences are found between no hedge and hedge strategies. However, hedging produces a nontrivial incidence of cases where liquidated foreign equity values are less than amounts sold forward. The results, robust to rising and falling dollar sub-periods, do not support forward hedging.  相似文献   

14.
The recent advent of the interest rate futures markets has greatly enriched the hedging opportunities of market participants faced with undesired interest rate risk. The variety of futures contracts presently spans a number of instruments with different risk, maturity, and coupon characteristics. This paper modifies the concept of duration and extends the duration hedging approach to cases where futures contracts are used as the hedging instrument. The derived hedge ratios take into account differences in coupon, maturity, and risk for three different regimes. Usage of these hedge ratios should lead to more efficient hedging of interest rate risk.  相似文献   

15.
This study considers whether or not gold has been an effective hedge against inflation for investors in six major indusrial countries over the period 1975 to 1980, Gold is considered a hedge against inflation if changes in the returns on gold investments systematically offset changes in the general price level of a particular country. The results indicate that gold has only been an effective hedge against US inflation, and only over one and six month investment holding periods. When the actual inflation rate was decomposed into an expected and unexpected component, it was again found that only US investors could hedge themselves against inflation using gold.  相似文献   

16.
FINANCIAL RATIO ADJUSTMENT DYNAMICS AND INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper re-examines the financial ratio adjustment model by (1) respecifying the model such that the speed of adjustment coefficient follows a dynamic adjustment process in response to some kind of economic shocks, and (2) proposing a joint estimation of firms within the same industry to capture unobservable industry effects. Examining six financial ratios within seven industries that contain 85 firms, our results reveal that a joint estimation method substantially improves the traditional model based upon an OLS method and that economic shocks, measured by changes in interest rate expectations, affect the speed of adjustment coefficients for over one-third of the sampling firms.  相似文献   

17.
This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.  相似文献   

18.
We propose to use two futures contracts in hedging an agricultural commodity commitment to solve either the standard delta hedge or the roll‐over issue. Most current literature on dual‐hedge strategies is based on a structured model to reduce roll‐over risk and is somehow difficult to apply for agricultural futures contracts. Instead, we propose to apply a regression based model and a naive rules of thumb for dual‐hedges which are applicable for agricultural commodities. The naive dual strategy stems from the fact that in a large sample of agricultural commodities, De Ville, Dhaene and Sercu (2008) find that GARCH‐based hedges do not perform as well as OLS‐based ones and that we can avoid estimation error with such a simple rule. Our semi‐naive hedge ratios are driven from two conditions: omitting exposure to spot price and minimising the variance of the unexpected basis effects on the portfolio values. We find that, generally, (i) rebalancing helps; (ii) the two‐contract hedging rules do better than the one‐contract counterparts, even for standard delta hedges without rolling‐over; (iii) simplicity pays: the naive rules are the best one–for corn and wheat within the two‐contract group, the semi‐naive rule systematically beats the others and GARCH performs worse than OLS for either one‐contract or two‐contract hedges and for soybeans the traditional naive rule performs nearly as well as OLS. These conclusions are based on the tests on unconditional variance ( Diebold and Mariano, 1995 ) and those on conditional risk ( Giacomini and White, 2006 ).  相似文献   

19.
We use the All Ordinaries Index and the corresponding Share Price Index futures contract written against the All Ordinaries Index to estimate optimal hedge ratios, adopting several specifications: an ordinary least squares‐based model, a vector autoregression, a vector error‐correction model and a diagonal‐vec multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Hedging effectiveness is measured using a risk‐return comparison and a utility maximization method. We find that time‐varying generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratios perform better than constant hedge ratios in terms of minimizing risks, but when return effects are also considered, the utility‐based measure prefers the ordinary least squares method in the in‐sample hedge, whilst both approaches favour the conditional time‐varying multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratio estimates in out‐of‐sample analyses.  相似文献   

20.
This paper examines the mean and the variance of post-sample hedging effectiveness. It is shown that, the hedging effectiveness measure adopted in the current literature is a biased estimator of the true hedging effectiveness. Moreover, it underestimates the true hedging effectiveness. Empirical results base upon twenty-four futures markets for the error correction hedge ratio, however, suggest the bias is negligible. On the other hand, in some markets, the variance of the hedging effectiveness is too large for the estimate to be reliable.  相似文献   

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