年金基金的投资组合：理论、模型与实践

企业年金在我国处于变革和发展的关键时期，未来巨量资金的投资组合问题值得关注。本文回顾了西方养老基金投资领域的研究文献，无论是税收套利模型还是对养老金收益担保公司的看跌期权模型，都不能解释现实。国际经验研究表明，企业年金的投资组合和发起企业的经营活动现金收益率有密切关系。本文提出了一个考虑发起企业的经营活动现金回报率之后的年金组合理论模型，分析了当前我国行业年金、地方企业年金以及保险公司经办年金等三类年金的投资组合情况，并提出了相关政策建议。     

证券市场基础模型初探

本文提出一个关于证券市场的,具有较强包容性的基础模型,旨在填补关于该领域的研究只有各分支方向的理论模型,却没有统一市场模型的空白。同时基于该模型及价值球、预期场等概念的提出,对市场价格形成机制以及市场投资分析过程中遇到的诸多概念、理论、方法作一个最基本的梳理。     

有关国内企业业绩评价研究文献综述

合理的企业业绩评价对投资者提出合理决策来说是非常重要的,然而现在的业绩评价体系、理论模型、指标都存在着一些缺陷,大多业绩评价理论模型的可操作性不强,科学性有待进一步考证.本文通过对最近几年国内相关文献进行归纳总结,总结出企业业绩评价理论体系、模型、指标三个模块,并对此进行了相应的评价     

自愿实施网络财务报告公司的特征研究

随着互联网的广泛运用,一些公司开始自愿实施网络财务报告。本文提出了网络财务报告决定模型,将现有研究发现的公司特征整合进一个有机的理论体系中,并利用中国的数据对该理论模型进行检验。结果发现,诸如管理层持股、是否聘请“四大”和审计意见类型、行业类型以及公司规模等公司特征对公司自愿实施网络财务报告的影响通过了检验。     

存货批购决策的Excel智能模型

一、批购智能模型的使用存货经济批量采购是企业日常存货管理的重要方法,但由于前提条件多、计算繁杂等,存货批购的理论模型难以广泛应用。笔者利用Excel 2007强大的数值、     

股利信号理论模型及其应用

股利信号理论认为在信息不对称的状态下，对于拥有信息优势的公司经理来说，他们通常把股利政策当作一种信号，向投资者传递企业当前和未来盈利的信息。典型的理论模型有巴恰塔亚模型、米勒－罗克模型、约翰－威廉斯模型、约翰－朗模型等。     

企业承诺在进入障碍中的作用分析

产业内企业间竞争日趋激烈，在位企业为维持市场垄断地位，常采取发出威胁性承诺，以阻止潜在竞争企业的进入。本文将大量采用产业组织相关理论模型，逐步放宽假设前提条件，在古诺竞争模型和伯特兰竞争模型的基础上，深入分析企业威胁性承诺在产品同质化、成本类型未知、区位选择、边际成本可变和存在生产能力闲置等框架条件下的有效性，并进行归纳总结。     

我国互联网金融信用风险测量与防范

结合我国互联网金融的发展现状分析信用风险,对预期违约概率模型、信用计量模型和信用组合理论模型等经典的信用风险测量模型进行比较、发展和完善,提出应将法律制度与行业自律管理相结合、打造现代化的新型监管模式,从司法信用、商业信用、银行信用、设备和网络系统信用以及社会信用五个方面强化互联网金融信用风险防范。     

我国企业偷税漏税行为的博弈分析

偷税漏税是目前整个社会关注的热点,本文以目前企业行业税制混乱、偷逃税款现象严重及其产生的经济影响为切入点,通过借鉴国内外的相关研究成果,在传统理论模型的基础上引入纳税人心理成本因素,对已有偷逃税模型作了一些改进。并结合对纳税人预期收益与预期风险的比较,以非对称性信息博弈简要分析了企业偷漏税行为的内部机理,由此提出了相应的防范偷漏税款的有效措施,以期能够较好地运用于实际,降低应税企业偷税漏税的可能性,还广大纳税人一个公平、合理、清洁的纳税环境,以维护我国国民经济的健康发展。     

金融企业的服务品牌内化研究

服务品牌内化研究是当前服务品牌研究领域的热门话题。金融企业通过构建基于机制设计下的服务品牌内化模型,能够有效地确定目标市场,进行品牌定位,实现品牌承诺和价值主张,激发员工参与行为,培养客户的忠诚度,实现获利战略目标。论文在研究前人成果的基础上,创新性的提出了"三维客户价值体验公式"、服务品牌构建路径、服务品牌内化"六力"假设模型、基于机制设计理论的服务品牌内化模型,为下一步的品牌内化研究提供了初步的理论模型,并对中国金融企业,以及其他企业服务品牌建设有着较高的实践意义。     

沪深股市风险度量中半参数ES模型的实证检验

目前度量预期不足(Expected Shortfall, ES)的风险技术大多基于参数模型,其建模过程避免不了对收益的分布类型做出假定,但这些分布往往与现实相悖。为此,介绍两种重要半参数模型,即CARE模型和CARES模型,并应用我国2007-2016年上证综合指数与深证成分指数的相关数据评估模型优劣。结果表明：CARES模型与CARE模型在度量我国股市风险中都具有较好的效果,但两者比较,CARES模型明显优于CARE模型。因此,CARES模型能作为我国股市风险度量工具中的一个重要补充。     

Predicting Business Failures in Canada*

Empirical researchers and practitioners frequently use the bankruptcy prediction models developed by Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980). This poses a potential problem for practitioners in Canada and researchers working with Canadian data because the Altman and Ohlson models were developed using U.S. data. We compare Canadian bankruptcy prediction models developed by Springate (1978), Altman and Levallee (1980), and Legault and Véronneau (1986) against the Altman and Ohlson models using recent data to determine the robustness of all models over time and the applicability of the Altman and Ohlson models to the Canadian environment. Our results indicate that the models developed by Springate (1978) and Legault and Véronneau (1986) yield similar results to the Ohlson (1980) model while being simpler and requiring less data. The Altman (1968) and Altman and Levallee (1980) models generally have lower performance than the other models. All models have stronger performance with the original coefficients than with re‐estimated coefficients. Our results regarding the Altman and Ohlson models are consistent with Begley, Ming, and Watts (1996), who found that the original version of the Ohlson model is superior to the Altman model and is robust over time. Les chercheurs empiriques et les praticiens ont souvent recours aux modèles de prédiction des faillites élaborés par Altman (1968) et Ohlson (1980). Or, le fait que ces auteurs aient utilisé des données des États‐Unis dans l'élaboration de leurs modèles soulève un problème particulier pour les praticiens canadiens et les chercheurs qui traitent des données canadiennes. Les auteurs comparent les modèles canadiens de prédiction des faillites mis au point par Springate (1978), Altman et Levallée (1980) et Legault et Véronneau (1986) aux modèles proposés par Altman et Ohlson, en se servant de données récentes pour évaluer la robustesse de tous ces modèles dans le temps et l'applicabilité des modèles d'Altman et Ohlson au contexte canadien. L'analyse révèle que les modèles de Springate (1978) et de Legault et Véronneau (1986) produisent des résultats similaires à ceux du modèle d'Ohlson (1980), bien qu'ils soient plus simples et exigent moins de données. De façon générale, les modèles d'Altman (1968) et d'Altman et Levallee (1980) sont moins performants que les autres modèles. Tous les modèles sont plus efficaces lorsqu'ils font usage des coefficients initiaux que lorsqu'ils sont appliqués à de nouvelles estimations des coefficients. Les résultats obtenus en ce qui a trait aux modèles d'Altman et d'Ohlson corroborent ceux de Begley, Ming et Watts (1996) qui constatent que la version initiale du modèle d'Ohlson est supérieure au modèle d'Altman et résiste au passage du temps.     

共享领导对员工创造力的“双刃剑”效应——心理安全感和角色压力的作用

运用工作资源-要求模型,基于心理安全感和角色压力的作用,考量共享领导对员工创造力的影响。结果表明,心理安全感在共享领导与员工创造力之间起正向中介作用（前后两半段路径均为正向）;角色压力在共享领导与员工创造力之间起负向中介作用（前半段路径均为正向,后半段路径为负向）。鉴此,管理者应密切关注共享领导实施过程中的员工心理安全感建设,激发出共享领导对员工创造力的积极效应     

An Improved Approach to Computing Implied Volatility

A well‐known problem in finance is the absence of a closed form solution for volatility in common option pricing models. Several approaches have been developed to provide closed form approximations to volatility. This paper examines Chance's (1993, 1996) model, Corrado and Miller's (1996) model and Bharadia, Christofides and Salkin's (1996) model for approximating implied volatility. We develop a simplified extension of Chance's model that has greater accuracy than previous models. Our tests indicate dramatically improved results.     

The Business Model in Integrated Reporting: Evaluating Concept and Application

A key feature of the International Integrated Reporting Council's (IIRC) agenda to improve corporate reporting is to encourage companies to use Integrated Reports to disclose their underlying business models. However, extant research suggests that the IIRC's distinctive business model concept is not well understood. This paper aims to unpack and critically evaluate the core features of the IIRC's business model concept. To unpack the IIRC's business model, the paper conducts a structured comparative analysis of the IIRC's model against eight influential alternatives in prior business model research. The paper then evaluates the extent to which Integrated Reporting's distinctive business model is: (1) internally coherent and consistent; and, (2) consistent with the IIRC's broader reporting objectives. The paper identifies tensions in both these areas. Since the IIRC's business model is central to its agenda to improve corporate reporting, these tensions are relevant to both Integrated Reporting research and broader discussions about whether, or how, disclosing business models advances mainstream reporting frameworks.     

Organizational Failure and Turnaround: Lessons for Public Services from the For-Profit Sector

As the performance of public services is increasingly scrutinized, it is now commonplace for some schools, hospitals, local authorities and other public organizations to be deemed ‘failing’ and for attempts to be made at creating a turnaround in their performance. This article explores the literature on failure and turnaround in for-profit organizations, presents a number of models or frameworks for describing and categorizing failure and turnaround, and examines the relevance and transferability of theoretical and empirical studies in the for-profit sector to the emerging field of failure and turnaround in public services.     

Organizational Failure and Turnaround: Lessons for Public Services from the For-Profit Sector

As the performance of public services is increasingly scrutinized, it is now commonplace for some schools, hospitals, local authorities and other public organizations to be deemed 'failing' and for attempts to be made at creating a turnaround in their performance. This article explores the literature on failure and turnaround in for-profit organizations, presents a number of models or frameworks for describing and categorizing failure and turnaround, and examines the relevance and transferability of theoretical and empirical studies in the for-profit sector to the emerging field of failure and turnaround in public services.     

On a universal mechanism for long-range volatility correlations

We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between 'active' and 'inactive' strategies is subordinated to random-walk-like processes. We numerically demonstrate our scenario in the framework of simplified market models, such as the Minority Game model with an inactive strategy. We show that real market data can be surprisingly well accounted for by these simple models.     

Off-site monitoring systems for predicting bank underperformance: a comparison of neural networks,discriminant analysis,and professional human judgment

This study compares the ability of discriminant analysis, neural networks, and professional human judgment methodologies in predicting commercial bank underperformance. Experience from the banking crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s suggest that improved prediction models are needed for helping prevent bank failures and promoting economic stability. Our research seeks to address this issue by exploring new prediction model techniques and comparing them to existing approaches. When comparing the predictive ability of all three models, the neural network model shows slightly better predictive ability than that of the regulators. Both the neural network model and regulators significantly outperform the benchmark discriminant analysis model's accuracy. These findings suggest that neural networks show promise as an off-site surveillance methodology. Factoring in the relative costs of the different types of misclassifications from each model also indicates that neural network models are better predictors, particularly when weighting Type I errors more heavily. Further research with neural networks in this field should yield workable models that greatly enhance the ability of regulators and bankers to identify and address weaknesses in banks before they approach failure. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

融资约束、企业规模与成长动态

利用2001～2010年中国制造业上市公司数据,采用面板数据VAR模型分析融资约束、企业规模与成长动态之间的关系。实证分析表明:削减融资约束可以推动企业的规模扩张与企业的成长,同时企业自身的成长可以降低企业的融资约束、促使企业规模扩大;而企业规模扩张会带来企业成长率的下降,初期受到融资约束较大而后会减缓企业的融资约束。这一研究可以为发展金融市场,削减融资约束、促进企业成长进而为推动中国经济增长提供经验证据。