货币政策、信贷渠道与资本结构

我国金融市场以银行体系为主,在企业融资研究中,考察货币政策的影响具有重要的现实意义。依据"信贷观"下的贷款渠道及信贷配给理论,分析表明,当货币政策变化影响到信贷供给时,未受约束企业的资本结构在政策紧缩时受影响较小,而受约束企业的杠杆率随着政策的紧缩(宽松)而减小(增大)。考察我国2003-2009年的非金融类上市公司的资本结构,在政策紧缩时经验证据与理论分析一致;但在政策宽松时资本结构的调整与"信贷观"并不一致,受约束企业的杠杆仍然较小,未受约束企业的权益及债务均较大。研究结论对于解释我国货币政策效应及企业融资决策,改进金融监管均具有重要的借鉴。     

资本协议和货币政策传导——一个基于银行贷款行为的分析

因为信息不对称的存在而导致的信贷配给使得银行信贷市场是一个供给主导的市场,在这类市场上,贷款利率的提高(降低)有可能使银行的贷款数量增加(减少),从而会弱化货币政策的有效性。但是如果存在着资本监管,情况则会发生变化。本文通过建立关于单个银行的模型来考察银行的行为,认为资本监管可以通过资本渠道和贷款供给的利率弹性渠道影响银行的贷款行为,继而能够影响货币政策的传导。     

资本协议和货币政策传导——一个基于银行贷款行为的分析

因为信息不对称的存在而导致的信贷配给使得银行信贷市场是一个供给主导的市场,在这类市场上,贷款利率的提高(降低)有可能使银行的贷款数量增加(速少),从而会弱化货币政策的有效性.但是如果存在着资本监管,情况则会发生变化.本文通过建立关于单个银行的模型来考察银行的行为,认为资本监管可以通过资本渠道和贷款供给的利率弹性渠道影响银行的贷款行为,继而能够影响货币政策的传导.     

货币政策不确定性与商业银行风险承担——来自中国上市银行的经验证据

本文采用2006年至2021年36家中国上市银行季度数据对货币政策不确定性如何影响银行风险承担进行经验研究。结果表明,货币政策不确定性上升对银行风险承担产生抑制作用。机制分析发现,贷款损失准备计提对货币政策不确定性与银行风险承担之间负向关系起中介效应。资本充足率对其起调节效应。异质性分析发现,对非系统重要性银行和城商行而言,其中介效应更显著;对非系统重要性银行、股份制行和农商行而言,其调节效应更显著。因此,要有效防范银行风险,就必须适度加强货币政策稳健性,优化贷款损失准备计提制度和资本监管水平。     

银行信贷、资本监管双重顺周期性与逆周期金融监管

商业银行信贷和资本监管具有顺周期性.银行信贷顺周期性导致经济繁荣时期的贷款扩张和经济衰退时的贷款紧缩.<巴塞尔资本协议Ⅱ>下的资本监管约束,在经济衰退时会促使银行形成信贷萎缩效应,影响和制约货币政策有效性的发挥,次贷危机为<巴塞尔资本协议Ⅱ>下的银行风险管理和监管的创新带来了新的要求和挑战.要减轻顺周期的影响,增强金融...     

面对货币政策调控时外资银行、本土银行信贷行为相同吗——基于MS-VAR模型的实证分析

本文利用MS-VAR模型分析了外资银行、本土银行在面对货币政策调控时的信贷行为,发现不论是在货币政策相对紧缩时期还是相对扩张时期,本土银行发放的信贷都会随货币供给增加而增加;外资银行信贷反应相对较弱;在货币政策相对扩张时期,外资银行发放的信贷会随着货币供给的增加而增加,但是在货币政策相对紧缩时期,其发放的信贷并不会随货币供给的增加而增加。本文对于加强货币政策调控有一定的启示作用。     

资本监管制度与贷款损失准备计提会计准则的协调性——小微企业信贷诱导有效性视角

本文考察下调小微企业债权风险权重的《商业银行资本管理办法(试行)》的银行信贷供给诱导有效性及其贷款损失准备计提会计准则规范影响的协调性。研究发现,下调小微企业债权风险权重的资本监管规则实施对银行小微企业信贷供给具有显著诱导有效性,但已发生损失模型下贷款损失准备计提对此具有削弱作用,其削弱路径主要来自会计信息的风险信号传递调节效应,与资本约束中介效应无关。进一步研究发现,相比其他银行,市场竞争力较弱的银行、以市场景气度较高小微企业为主要信贷投放对象的银行,具有更为显著的资本监管诱导有效性及贷款损失准备计提削弱效应,显示提高相关制度协调性并充分发挥市场激励作用,有助于进一步缓解小微企业"信贷配给"现象。     

基于KCC-LM模型的资本监管对货币政策信贷传导渠道影响的研究

对经典的CC-LM模型进行扩展,研究资本监管影响货币政策效果的机理,并就商业银行资本约束的强弱对货币政策信贷传导渠道的影响进行了实证检验。结果表明:商业银行对信贷风险的评估及其面临的资本充足率监管对货币政策效果影响显著,如果银行资本充足率较低,紧缩性货币政策将大幅压缩银行贷款规模;而扩张型货币政策下资本充足率较高的银行,其贷款增长率的增长幅度更大;资本充足率较低的银行对紧缩型货币政策的反应更敏感。     

资产价格、信贷波动与逆周期资本缓冲

本文对巴塞尔资本监管协议实施以来几次重大的经济衰退及信贷紧缩过程的分析发现,在银行面临资本监管约束的情况下,经济衰退过程中的信贷紧缩造成经济波动放大是一个资产价格、资本充足率和银行信贷相互影响、自我实现的过程,资产价格波动是银行资本监管约束实现其亲周期性的重要途径。资产价格波动影响银行的资本充足水平,并通过改变资本约束影响信贷供给,因此,逆周期资本缓冲同资产价格挂钩是必要的。基于资产价格对于银行信贷波动及顺周期的影响,可以将资产价格作为逆周期资本缓冲的挂钩变量之一。     

银行资本缓冲、信贷行为与宏观经济波动——来自中国银行业的经验证据

增强银行经营的稳健性、减少银行信贷行为的亲周期效应对实体经济带来的负面影响,对我国经济的平稳发展具有重要现实意义。本文在对理论文献进行系统梳理和经济学分析的基础上,对宏观经济波动下我国银行业资本缓冲调整行为特征、资本缓冲对宏观经济波动产生影响的传导效应进行了理论分析,并利用2000-2010年我国45家商业银行的年度非平衡面板数据,对该问题分析提出的相关理论假说进行了实证检验。实证结果表明:(1)我国银行资本缓冲与宏观经济波动之间呈现正相关关系,这有别于世界主要市场经济国家银行业资本缓冲与经济波动两者之间的负相关关系;①(2)我国银行业资本缓冲在经济周期上升期的提高主要是通过增加资本金②或权益的方式实现的;(3)我国银行信贷增速呈现出有悖其他市场经济国家的逆周期特征,资本缓冲与经济周期的正相关关系强化了银行信贷增速的逆周期特征;(4)资本缓冲会显著降低银行的存款溢价,而其对贷款溢价的影响并不明显;(5)资本缓冲对存款溢价的削弱作用更多地出现在经济下行阶段,而其对贷款溢价的影响效应在不同经济周期并未呈现显著差别。     

Sovereign risk and the bank lending channel in Europe

The main purpose of this article is to analyze how sovereign risk influences the loan supply reaction of banks to monetary policy through the bank lending channel. Additionally, we aim to test whether this reaction differs in easy and tight monetary regimes. Using a sample of 3125 banks from the euro zone between 1999 and 2012, we find that sovereign risk plays an important role in determining loan supply from banks during tight monetary regimes. Banks in higher sovereign risk countries reduce lending more during tight regimes. However, we find little evidence to support any relationship between sovereign risk and loan supply reaction to monetary policy expansions. These results are very interesting for the way monetary policy is conducted in Europe. Banking union, banking system strength, and the budget control of governments would be necessary measures to reduce the heterogeneous transmission of the monetary policy in the euro zone.     

Monetary policy,bank competition and regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

This paper examines how competition in the banking sector affects the transmission of monetary policy and the variation of credit expansion across regions in the United States. Using the U.S. branching deregulation between 1994 to 2008 as an exogenous change in banks’ competition, we analyze how bank competition affects monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel. The results show that competition strengthens the impact of monetary policy on bank loan supply. We then show that states with a more deregulated banking sector were more affected by monetary conditions in the years leading to the Great Recession. Specifically, the effect of loose monetary conditions on the expansion of households’ debt was stronger in states that had fewer bank branching restrictions. The results suggest that variations in the level of bank competition may have amplified regional asymmetries in the years leading to the Great Recession.     

Bank loan supply and monetary policy transmission in Germany: An assessment based on matching impulse responses

This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm in which banks decide on their loan supply in the light of expectations about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a VAR model, we estimate the response of bank loans to a monetary policy shock taking account of the reaction of the output level and the loan rate. We estimate our model to evaluate the response of bank loans by matching the theoretical impulse responses with the empirical impulse responses to a monetary policy shock. Evidence in support of the credit channel can be reported.     

影子银行对货币政策的影响

随着2007年全球金融危机爆发,学界和社会公众再度提高对金融监管与宏观货币政策的重视。影子银行是金融创新的产物,在给资本市场和产品市场带来活力的同时也使得人们更加关注影子银行对货币市场和货币政策的影响。本文基于信用与宏观经济学理论并利用中国化宏观数据进行论证,将市场利率划分为商业银行体系利率与影子银行体系利率并以贷款基准利率作为商业银行的总体利率,以一年期国债到期收益率作为影子银行利率,以市盈利率作为整个经济体系的实际利率,并利用线性回归给出三者间的关系。结果表明我国的影子银行在一定程度上可以起到降低社会总体融资成本、促进经济增长的作用,但也给物价和金融稳定施加一定的压力,在短期内会加快我国的货币流通速度,降低我国货币政策有效性。     

Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy

Adjustments in bank leverage act as the linchpin in the monetary transmission mechanism that works through fluctuations in risk-taking. In the international context, we find evidence of monetary policy spillovers on cross-border bank capital flows and the US dollar exchange rate through the banking sector. A contractionary shock to US monetary policy leads to a decrease in cross-border banking capital flows and a decline in the leverage of international banks. Such a decrease in bank capital flows is associated with an appreciation of the US dollar.     

A model of the monetary sector with and without binding capital requirements

Bank equity is exogenous in the standard deposit-and-loan-expansion multiplier model, so that model is inappropriate for analyzing the interaction between monetary and bank regulatory policies. This paper examines the effect of a binding capital requirement on the loan expansion process. We evaluate how the conflict between the monetary and regulatory authorities evolves when bank equity adjusts to a binding capital requirement. We find that capital requirements are not innocuous for monetary policy. Nevertheless, the monetary authority can assert control over the loan expansion process in the long run, although multiplier values will differ considerably from those in the standard multiplier model.     

Capital Regulation and Competition as a Moderator for Banking Stability

Capital regulation forces banks to fund a substantial amount of their investments with equity. This creates a buffer against losses but also increases the cost of funding. If higher funding costs translate into higher loan interest rates, the bank's assets are also likely to become more risky, which may destabilize the lending bank. This paper argues that the level of competition in the banking sector can determine whether the buffer or cost effect prevails. The endogenous level of competition may be crucial in determining the efficiency of capital regulation in undercapitalized banking sectors, with excess capacities and correlated risks.     

地方政府债券置换对银行信贷及货币供给的影响

通过构建基于商业银行资产负债结构的地方债置换分析框架,研究表明,地方债置换将通过商业银行资产结构在贷款与债券之间的配置调整影响货币供给,它将使银行可贷资金增加,并导致贷款规模的变化,在贷款创造存款的信用放大机制下,引起货币供应量的变化,进而造成货币政策的扩张(收缩).贷款市场的供求弹性将决定地方债置换的扩张效应或收缩效应.在经济增长放缓、银行为弥补持有地方债收益下降、地方债纳入货币政策工具的抵押品和质押品范围的情况下,地方债置换具有货币政策扩张效应.为减少地方债对金融市场的冲击,央行需密切监测商业银行资金运用情况,提高货币政策操作的针对性,并加强同财政政策的协同配合.     

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

This paper studies the role of credit supply factors in business cycle fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions enriched with an imperfectly competitive banking sector. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits, and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Loan margins depend on the banks' capital‐to‐assets ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Balance‐sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the banking sector and, in particular, sticky rates attenuate the effects of monetary policy shocks, while financial intermediation increases the propagation of supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the contraction of economic activity in 2008, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital may have substantial effects on the economy.     

Financial Dampening

We propose a novel mechanism, “financial dampening,” whereby loan retrenchment by banks attenuates the effectiveness of monetary policy. The theory unifies an endogenous supply of illiquid local loans and risk sharing among subsidiaries of bank holding companies (BHCs). We derive an instrumental variable (IV) strategy that separates supply-driven loan retrenchment from local loan demand by exploiting linkages through BHC internal capital markets across spatially separate BHC member banks. We estimate that retrenching banks increase loan supply substantially less in response to exogenous monetary policy rate reductions. This relative decline has persistent effects on local employment and thus provides a rationale for slow recoveries from financial distress.