非对称货币政策效应——基于前景理论的视角

文章通过行为金融学中前景理论的视角探讨非对称货币政策。结果表明不同的货币政策下,收入水平和边际利得的不同会促使人们相应地调整参考点和权重,使总价值函数处于不同的位置使人们呈现出不同的风险偏好,并采取不同的应对措施,从而导致了货币政策的非对称性。     

当前我国外汇储备对货币政策的影响

20世纪90年代中期以来,我国外汇储备在国际收支双顺差和外汇管理体制改革的推动下超常增长。金融危机以来,我国我国国际收支仍呈"双顺差",但顺差规模均有一定程度的下降。然而随着我国经济的快速复苏,大量"热钱"涌入,使外汇储备增加从而对我国货币政策造成影响。本文从理论上阐明了在开放经济条件下,外汇储备与货币政策的内在联系,分析我国外汇储备的现状及其发展趋势及其对货币政策的影响。     

新常态下我国的货币政策转型分析

本文以新常态下我国货币政策转型为主题,首先分析了国际货币政策转型及其经验,再次指出了我国货币政策转型面临的挑战和机遇,最后提出了我国货币政策在新常态下转型的具体措施和战略选择。     

开放经济条件下货币政策效应的实证分析

在开放经济条件下，一个国家或地区的总需求和总供给与国际经济形成一种紧密的关系，从而使货币政策环境发生了根本变化。本文分析了开放经济条件下货币政策的效应，运用一个简化的开放经济条件下的宏观经济模型，验证了货币政策对产出和物价水平不同的影响效果；其影响程度依赖于经济开放度，经济开放度越大，货币政策对产出的影响越小，而对物价的影响越大。     

宏观审慎政策效应及其与货币政策的配合

通过构建包含家庭、企业家、零售商、商业银行和政府的动态随机一般均衡模型,从社会福利的角度探讨宏观审慎政策效应及其与货币政策的配合策略。研究结果表明:宏观审慎政策是福利增进的,引入宏观审慎政策有助于维护金融稳定;在供给冲击下,宏观审慎政策与货币政策存在潜在冲突,在需求冲击下,宏观审慎政策与货币政策相辅相成;货币政策可以通过利率来稳定房价,一定程度上有助于维护金融稳定,但货币政策与宏观审慎政策同时使用时,其最优配合策略是货币政策当局负责维护物价稳定,宏观审慎政策当局负责维护金融稳定。基于此,本文提出明确宏观审慎政策当局及其权限,确保宏观审慎政策和货币政策由不同部门作出,以及成立政策协调配合委员会等建议,以实现两政策协调配合,发挥政策协同效应。     

专家学者纵论货币政策

近来,金融界和理论界对我国目前的货币政策讨论很热烈,各自的看法也相去甚远.为使大家更好地理解和执行稳健的货币政策,特将各种不同的观点摘录于下,供读者参考.     

经济转型时期中俄货币政策目标比较研究

本文回顾了中国和俄罗斯近年来执行货币政策的主要经历,并针对两国货币政策目标及其实施绩效进行了评价。结果发现,虽然中俄两国采取了相同的货币政策框架,但是却取得了不同的结果,中国的货币政策成功的控制了通胀,而俄罗斯的实际通胀率却始终高于其预先设定的目标。利用开放经济条件下的泰勒规则,我们进一步对中俄两国货币政策的目标进行了实证分析。结果表明,尽管中俄两国货币政策都采取了相同的反通胀的政策立场,但俄罗斯货币政策在稳定通胀的同时,还将稳定汇率作为了货币政策主要目标,这也是造成两国货币政策不同绩效的主要原因。我们认为,在当前人民币升值和通胀上升双重压力的背景下,我国货币政策的基本取向应该是坚持以反通胀为首要目标。     

货币政策是否存在结构效应——基于中国信贷传导渠道的视角

传统意义上,货币政策是一个常规的总量调控工具。然而,许多学者对货币政策是否也存在结构效应进行了研究。本文运用马尔科夫区制转换向量自回归模型对我国货币政策是否存在结构效应进行了分析,探讨了货币政策在不同经济周期下的实施效果。效果研究结果显示,中央银行的货币政策不仅具有总量效应,还通过银行信贷渠道产生结构效应,主要是因为产业内生产要素的特点及其配置的差异导致对货币政策的反应不一,进而带来货币政策效果的结构性差别。本文据此提出,我国货币当局应当关注各产业内资本等要素对货币政策的敏感度,把握好货币政策调控的频度和力度,兼顾发展宏观经济和优化产业结构两个方面的政策目标。     

国际短期资本流动与货币政策独立性

三元悖论框架下,我国事实上盯住爬行汇率制度和逐渐开放的资本项目,必然使货币政策独立性受到影响.由于具有较强流动性和易变性,国际短期资本对货币政策独立性的影响往往会导致货币政策运用陷入困境.本文首先分析国际短期资本影响货币政策独立性的机制,并对1985-2007年国际短期资本与中国货币发行量、信贷规模、利率水平等货币政策变量及其他影响变量的关系进行实证研究,认为国际短期资本规模变动在一定程度上影响中国货币政策独立性.针对国际短期资本对货币政策的影响及其机制,提出中国运用货币政策进行宏观调控时应尽量配合采用财政政策和产业政策的政策建议.     

货币政策对利率期限结构的影响研究

通过Nelson-Siegel模型拟合我国利率期限结构参数,并将利率期限结构中的不同期限利率利用夹角余弦算法分为人们对未来的短期、中期和长期的利率预期来考察货币政策对人们各个时期利率预期的影响。结果发现,货币政策的变化对人们的长期和短期利率预期变化影响显著,而对中期利率预期影响不显著,同时,考察期内扩张性的货币政策会导致短期预期利率和长期利率下降,使得利率期限结构形状形状进一步恶化,而紧缩型的货币政策则可以引导人们对未来经济形势的正确预期,促进健康的利率期限结构形状的形成。     

The role of information, knowledge and value in the late 20th century

The new electronics technologies are propelling a transformation of value creation from being based on physical work to being based on knowledge creation. This is creating an economy increasingly based on innovation, but this means that the obsolescence is becoming increasingly rapid. Some products such as personal computers are now on a three-month product cycle meaning that even as value is being created more quickly, it is also being destroyed more quickly. Software is one of the quintessential products of this new economy. One of the central dilemmas of the knowledge economy is that the product knowledge often can be reproduced at essentially no cost. This means that it is difficult to enforce private property relationships creating a difficulty for private firms. Information and knowledge creation have already become the central pivot in capitalist economies and this will only be reinforced.     

绩效考核中的推定效应

在考评对象的工作绩效不能完全观察的中,人们不得不在绩效考评中引入推定原则。推定原则所带来的基本效应是逆向选择。按照完全理性假定,考评对象按后悔值最小原则确定行为策略。当采用偷懒策略的后悔值小于采用努力策略的后悔值时,绩效工资可能会激励考评对象偷懒和屏蔽工作绩效信息的行为。走出绩效推定情境中的逆向选择的困境的基本思路是提高考评对象采用偷懒策略的后悔值。为此,一方面要提高考评主体认知考评对象实施偷懒策略的概率;另一方面要增大考评对象实施偷懒策略的或有损失。     

Leading clever people

In an economy driven by ideas and intellectual know-how, top executives recognize the importance of employing smart, highly creative people. But if clever people have one defining characteristic, it's that they do not want to be led. So what is a leader to do? The authors conducted more than 100 interviews with leaders and their clever people at major organizations such as PricewaterhouseCoopers, Cisco Systems, Novartis, the BBC, and Roche. What they learned is that the psychological relationships effective leaders have with their clever people are very different from the ones they have with traditional followers. Those relationships can be shaped by seven characteristics that clever people share: They know their worth--and they know you have to employ them if you want their tacit skills. They are organizationally savvy and will seek the company context in which their interests are most generously funded. They ignore corporate hierarchy; although intellectual status is important to them, you can't lure them with promotions. They expect instant access to top management, and if they don't get it, they may think the organization doesn't take their work seriously. They are plugged into highly developed knowledge networks, which both increases their value and makes them more of a flight risk. They have a low boredom threshold, so you have to keep them challenged and committed. They won't thank you--even when you're leading them well. The trick is to act like a benevolent guardian: to grant them the respect and recognition they demand, protect them from organizational rules and politics, and give them room to pursue private efforts and even to fail. The payoff will be a flourishing crop of creative minds that will enrich your whole organization.     

Finding an Alternative to Bureaucratic Models of Organization in the Public Sector

Demands for enhanced levels of efficiency and effectiveness have caused many to question traditional bureaucratic forms in public sector organizations. Team-based structures have been cited as an attractive alternative, perceived as facilitating the necessary levels of flexibility, innovation and responsiveness. Through the case of one Next Steps agency, the authors explore the difficulties encountered by rigid bureaucracies in their attempts to introduce team-working. It is argued that cultural change must act as a pivot for movement towards structural change, embodying all of the perceived positive aspects of team-working within public sector organizations. This will, in turn, facilitate the achievement of desired performance outcomes.     

Strategy and the new economics of information

We are in the midst of a fundamental shift in the economics of information--a shift that will precipitate changes in the structure of entire industries and in the ways companies compete. This shift is made possible by the widespread adoption of Internet technologies, but it is less about technology than about the fact that a new behavior is reaching critical mass. Millions of people are communicating at home and at work in an explosion of connectivity that threatens to undermine the established value chains for businesses in many sectors of the economy. What will happen, for instance, to dominant retailers such as Toys "R" Us and Home Depot when a search through the Internet gives consumers more choice than any store? What will be the point of cultivating a long-standing supplier relationship with General Electric when it posts its purchasing requirements on an Internet bulletin board and entertains bids from anybody inclined to respond? The authors present a conceptual framework for approaching such questions--for understanding the relationship of information to the physical components of the value chain and how the Internet's ability to separate the two will lead to the reconfiguration of the value proposition in many industries. In any business where the physical value chain has been compromised for the sake of delivering information, there will be an opportunity to create a separate information business and a need to streamline the physical one. Executives must mentally deconstruct their businesses to see the real value of what they have. If they don't, the authors warn, someone else will.     

The coming battle for customer information

Companies collect information about customers to target valuable prospects more effectively, tailor their offerings to individual needs, improve customer satisfaction, and identify opportunities for new products or services. But managers' efforts to capture such information may soon be thwarted. The authors believe that consumers are going to take ownership of information about themselves and start demanding value in exchange for it. As a result, negotiating with customers for information will become costly and complex. How will that happen? Consumers are realizing that they get very little in exchange for the information they divulge so freely through their commercial transactions and survey responses. Now new technologies such as smart cards, World Wide Web browsers, and personal financial management software are allowing consumers to view comprehensive profiles of their commercial activities-- and to choose whether or not to release that information to companies. Their decision will hinge, in large part, on what vendors offer them in return for the data. Consumers will be unlikely to bargain with vendors on their own, however. The authors anticipate that companies they call infomediaries will broker information to businesses on consumers' behalf. In essence, infomediaries will be the catalyst for people to start demanding value in exchange for information about themselves. And most other companies will need to rethink how they obtain information and what they do with it if they want to find new customers and serve them better.     

组织文化、环境不确定性与管理会计信息认知

管理会计是一门应用性学科,它围绕组织的价值创造服务于企业实践。组织文化在其核心价值观的传递与解释过程中会对管理会计信息的认知程度产生影响,也会改变人们对环境不确定性的态度。管理会计信息支持系统通过对信息有用性的甄别与分析,提高人们对管理会计信息的认知能力,进一步使管理会计控制系统发挥更大的作用,提高管理会计的效率与效果。     

The passive-aggressive organization

Passive-aggressive organizations are friendly places to work: People are congenial, conflict is rare, and consensus is easy to reach. But, at the end of the day, even the best proposals fail to gain traction, and a company can go nowhere so imperturbably that it's easy to pretend everything is fine. Such companies are not necessarily saddled with mulishly passive-aggressive employees. Rather, they are filled with mostly well-intentioned people who are the victirms of flawed processes and policies. Commonly, a growing company's halfhearted or poorly thought-out attempts to decentralize give rise to multiple layers of managers, whose authority for making decisions becomes increasingly unclear. Some managers, as a result, hang back, while others won't own up to the calls they've made, inviting colleagues to second-guess or overturn the decisions. In such organizations, information does not circulate freely, and that makes it difficult for workers to understand the impact of their actions on company performance and for managers to correctly appraise employees' value to the organization. A failure to accurately match incentives to performance stifles initiative, and people do just enough to get by. Breaking free from this pattern is hard; a long history of seeing corporate initiatives ignored and then fade away tends to make people cynical. Often it's best to bring in an outsider to signal that this time things will be different. He or she will need to address every obstacle all at once: clarify decision rights; see to it that decisions stick; and reward people for sharing information and adding value, not for successfully negotiating corporate politics. If those steps are not taken, it's only a matter of time before the diseased elements of a passive-aggressive organization overwhelm the remaining healthy ones and drive the company into financial distress.     

Are you picking the right leaders?

When it comes time to hire or promote, top executives routinely overvalue certain skills and traits while overlooking others. Intuitively, for example, they might seek out team players, people who shine operationally, dynamic public speakers, or those who are demonstrably hungry for greater responsibility. But some attributes that seem like good indicators of leadership potential are, paradoxically, just the reverse. Team players and those who excel operationally often make better seconds in command. Many a great public speaker lacks the subtle one-on-one persuasive powers that a top leader needs. And shows of raw ambition may be more an indicator of ego than of leadership talent. Unfortunately, few organizations have the right procedures in place to produce complete and accurate pictures of their top prospects. Assessments are often based on hearsay, gossip, and casual observation. Many companies spend too much effort trying to develop leaders and not enough effort trying to identify them. A new evaluation process will help you avoid that trap. Candidates are assessed by a group of people who have observed their behavior directly over time and in different circumstances. Using a carefully crafted series of questions, the group can probe a wide range of leadership criteria, including such "soft" attributes as personal integrity, that are difficult to assess. Without such information, senior management will remain vulnerable to misidentifying leadership talent, and the wrong people will continue to make their way up the corporate ladder.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.