金融深化、FDI溢出效应与地区TFP——基于省级面板门槛模型的实证分析

在考虑经济运行互动关系中内在非线性结构的前提下,从金融深化角度探究了外商直接投资（FDI）对地区全要素生产率（TFP）的溢出效应的影响机制,采用1992-2011年我国29个省级单位的面板数据,通过运用非线性理论的“门槛模型”检验和回归方法,以金融深化为门槛变量,实证研究了外商直接投资对地区全要素生产率的影响.结果发现,总体上金融深化和外商直接投资都有利于提高全要素生产率,且存在基于金融深化的“双门槛效应”,即不同地区的金融深化水平对外商直接投资的溢出效应的影响存在非线性的结构变化,随着金融深化和发展水平的不断提高,外商直接投资的溢出效应呈区间递增的态势.     

FDI与全要素生产率增长：金融发展门槛效应检验

本文基于中国大陆1995-2009年省级面板数据,实证检验了外商直接投资对全要素生产率增长的促进作用是否依赖于金融发展水平的问题。结果发现：只有当金融发展水平越过门槛值之后,外商直接投资才会产生显著的全要素生产率增长效应;目前中国金融发展水平尚未进入这一阶段,而且本身也不足以对全要素生产率增长产生积极的贡献。     

Profitability Life Cycle of Foreign Direct Investment: Application to the Czech Republic

The decisions of foreign direct investors are profit-seeking, so deterioration in the primary income balance of the current account is observed. We estimate the common profitability profile of foreign direct investment (FDI) on a panel of mostly European countries in the period from 1990 to 2015. The FDI profitability life cycle has a non-linear time profile with duration of 16 years. Maximum profitability is reached in the sixth year after the initial investment. We then construct three scenarios for the evolution of total FDI earnings in the Czech Republic depending on the future FDI inflows (changing FDI stock) assumed.     

Determinants of Regional Investment Decisions in China: An Econometric Model of Tax Incentive Policy

This paper examines whether concessionary tax rates and tax incentives can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into certain designated areas in China. Since China opened its doors to foreign investors in 1979, tax benefits have been used extensively to attract FDI into different areas. In 1991, a new tax law was introduced which superseded two previous income tax laws. This new law provides additional tax benefits which improve the investment environment for foreign investors. This study investigates the effect of China's tax rates and tax incentive policy on FDI and on the locational choices of foreign firms. Our empirical results indicate that tax rates and incentives are important determinants of regional investment decisions in China, after controlling for potential confounding variables covering infrastructure, unemployment rate, wage rate and agglomeration economics. Specifically, areas offering lower tax rates and increased tax incentives are found to attract greater amounts of FDI. The impetus of the tax effect on FDI is more apparent in the post-1991 period due to changes in the tax laws. Our results also suggest that infrastructure variables are important determinants of regional investment decisions.     

Foreign direct investment,exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa

The article empirically investigated economic growth as a function of foreign direct investment and exports in South Africa. The article applied the autoregressive distributed lag model, known as the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long run relationship between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The error correction model was used to examine the short run dynamics; and the VECM Granger causality approach was used to investigate the direction of causality. The article confirmed cointegration between economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports. The article indicates that both foreign direct investment and exports spur economic growth contrary to some studies, which found that FDI does not cause economic growth. The VECM Granger causality analysis found unidirectional causality between economic growth and foreign direct investment running from foreign direct investment to economic growth, unidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and exports running from foreign direct investment to exports and bidirectional causality between economic growth and exports. The article confirms the FDI-led growth hypothesis for South Africa. On the policy front, the government could stimulate foreign direct investment through incentives to investors, creation of a good macroeconomic environment and a careful utilisation of loose monetary policy to grow the economy.     

Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises

We examine the role of both the volatility and levels of exchange rates in the determination of multinational enterprises’ (MNEs) investments using a unique Korean dataset. These data provide a natural laboratory due to the Korean experience of a severe financial crisis in the late nineties. We find, first, that the behavior of foreign investors in Korea has changed following the 1997 crisis. The change in foreign direct investment (FDI) in response to exchange rate volatility is robust, while that to exchange rate level is quite mixed, which is consistent with recently developed real option-based FDI theory. Second, the effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is persistent, whereas that of misalignment of level is only temporary, suggesting that MNEs regard volatility as a more generic determinant of foreign investment than misalignment of the exchange rate level. Third, we find strong evidence of nonlinearity between uncertainty and FDI, which may shed some light on why existing literature shows mixed results on the relation between exchange rate variables and FDI.     

外资进入自由化如何影响了中国本土企业创新?

本文以中国政府2002年对《外商投资产业指导目录》的修订所引发的外资自由化为准自然实验,采用倍差法系统评估了外资进入对本土企业创新的影响及其作用机制。研究表明,外资进入不仅显著提高了创新程度,而且还有利于延长本土企业的创新持续时间。此外,我们还发现,知识产权保护强化了外资进入对本土企业创新的促进作用,这一结论在使用专利申请数衡量创新以及采用FDI溢出指标刻画外资进入程度之后依然稳健。最后,我们进一步考察了外资进入影响本土企业创新的作用机制,发现研发能力增强与融资约束程度降低是外资进入促进本土企业创新的两个重要渠道。本文研究为客观评估中国近年来引资政策的绩效提供了微观依据,同时对于如何有效促进本土企业创新具有一定政策启示意义。     

Immigration and equity home bias

Why do investors hold such large positions in domestic equity when there are gains to be made from international diversification? This equity home bias puzzle has received considerable attention in the literature, with asymmetric information on domestic and foreign assets (whether by individual choice or by market imperfection) emerging as the most plausible explanation. What happens when we consider a subset of investors whose information sets are closer to investors in foreign countries? I assess the relationship between immigration and equity home bias and find that inward migration is positively correlated with increased foreign equity positions and reduced home bias. Looking across income groups, outward migration reduces home bias for relatively rich countries, but may actually increase home bias when migration occurs to or from a developing country. These results suggest that immigration generates a positive externality of increased information flows for developed countries, but not for developing nations. The effects of immigration on investment are strongest within the Euro-Zone, suggesting that this positive externality of immigration is largest when barriers to portfolio diversification (such as currency risk) are lowest.     

当前中国吸收外国直接投资面临的形势分析

<正> 一、当前我国吸收FDI的有利因素 首先,中国已于1999年11月15日与美国达成双边协议,加入WTO的最大障碍已经排除,普遍预计将于2000年底加入世界贸易组织。这是我国吸收FDI最大的有利因素。我国加入WTO后,服务业等投资领域的开放,市场准入程度的提高将使外国投资者获得更多的投资机会。同时我国承诺遵守WTO规则,与国际规则接轨,法制化、规范化程度将会提高,可使外商打消对我国政策多变、随意、不透明的疑虑,对在华投资能够做出预测,产生良     

新中国70年对外直接投资:发展历程、理论逻辑与政策体系

通过梳理新中国成立70年以来中国对外直接投资的五个阶段,即艰难探索、尝试发展、调整发展、快速发展和全面发展的历程及其政策演变发现：动因变迁深刻影响区位与行业变迁、制度创新是中国对外直接投资特有的驱动因素、中国对外直接投资必将成功应对“逆全球化”挑战。同时,根据实践历程与理论探讨构建了对外直接投资政策体系结构图并进行分析,认为我国应加强对外直接投资法律体系建设、强化对外直接投资扶持政策、支持民营企业对外投资、提高国有企业对外投资绩效、增强政府与企业参与国际规则制定的能力。     

Public Pensions and U.S. Infrastructure Investment: The Perfect Partnership?

Public pension funds have been passive investors in U.S. infrastructure projects for years, serving primarily as limited partners in designated infrastructure funds. However, the continued maturation of U.S. public‐private partnerships, combined with pension funds' need for yield to match future liabilities, has prompted the funds to take a more active role in infrastructure investment. In recent years, many pension funds have built internal teams to make direct (as opposed to indirect and for the most part passive) investments in infrastructure projects. Governments in particular should pay close attention to the emergence of pension funds as direct infrastructure investors. With OECD pension assets totaling $10.6 trillion at the end of 2010, the world's pension funds offer governments a strong value proposition. Given the fixed nature of their pension liabilities, pension funds emphasize yield and long‐term appreciation, and are likely to accept rate of returns in the neighborhood of CPI + 5%. Infrastructure investments, which generate highly stable cashflow and enjoy high barriers to entry, are ideally suited to meet these criteria. Also of particular significance to governments, pension funds have two bottom lines. First is expected yield and returns; second is their desire to invest in projects that meet a mission of social responsibility. Pension investors prefer, when possible, to invest in projects that promote government objectives such as reduced congestion and clean air. Taking account of pension funds' double mission can help governments capture opportunities to develop infrastructure through meaningful partnerships with like‐minded investors.     

Foreign institutional ownership externalities and supplier innovation

Many emerging markets allow foreign investment as a way to reform domestic markets. Extant studies have found a positive externality on innovation brought forth by foreign direct investment (FDI); however, we know very little about the externality of another form of foreign investment, ownership by foreign institutional investors (FII), on innovation. In this paper, we document one form of FII externality by showing that foreign institutional ownership of the customer firm results in higher supplier innovation. We also show that the FII externality on supplier innovation is stronger when customers have more influence on the suppliers and when the FIIs can facilitate information flow better. Our findings suggest that the real impact of FII can go beyond the underlying firms, and promoting FII may benefit firms, especially smaller firms in emerging countries that do not directly have foreign ownership.     

Foreign direct investment and employment: host country experience

This study investigates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment creation and wages in Ghana. A simultaneous panel regression model is used in estimating the effect FDI has on employment and wages. The results of this study indicate that FDI has a statistically significant and positive effect on employment levels in Ghana, but has an insignificant effect on wages. FDI can greatly augment domestic efforts by creating more jobs in the economy. The results clearly demonstrate that FDI flows affect employment quantitatively, but not necessarily qualitatively. The study identifies other factors including, productivity, wages, sub-sector, and location as important in influencing employment levels. Also, productivity, labour union, firm size, sub-sector, and location are noted as significant in affecting wages in Ghana. The main value of this paper is in respect of the fact that it provides insight into the effects of FDI flow on employment from a host country perspective. The study recommends that FDI should be considered as an integral part of the Ghanaian economic policy in order to spur on economic growth.     

Herding in foreign direct investment

This paper, to our knowledge, is the first to examine herding in foreign direct investment (FDI). We investigate it from two perspectives, first the number of countries investing in the host country and then the dollar volumes of those investments. Our results provide strong evidence of herding in FDI. We also show herding in the divestures of these investors. We show that herding in FDI is related to host country characteristics and governance parameters.     

Mean-Reversion in REITs Discount to NAV &; Risk Premium

REITs discount to NAV is a puzzling regularity. The sharp increase in volatility of REITs prices over the past few years has spurred a relatively new concern amongst academics, managers and investors about the consequences of, and causes of, property risk premium on discount to NAV. The two interrelated questions arising from the recent increase in volatility of REITs prices are: Is the increased volatility responsible for the observed widening in discount to NAV? What does the observed private and public risk premium tell us about discount to NAV? We attempt to address these questions by analysing risk premiums in private and public real estate markets. The analysis is conducted in the most recent years of high stock price volatility. Our analysis reveals two major results: a tendency for discount to NAV to revert to the long term mean value of 20% and, more significantly, a lower risk premium in equivalent yields in private market than in public market. These results suggest that investors in public market have a different conception of property risk and complexity of lease options than what is conveyed by private property valuation.     

外资进入与国内价值链地位提升

近年来,国际经济形势日趋复杂严峻,全球价值链纵向分工趋于缩短或转移至新地点,构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局是我国当前经济转型和未来可持续发展的关键。本文利用中国30个省份区域间投入产出表,结合探索性空间数据分析方法和静态、动态多种空间权重矩阵,系统考察了外资进入对我国区域国内价值链地位提升的影响。研究发现,外资进入对国内价值链地位提升具有显著的促进作用;FDI进入地区不仅可以获得直接的技术溢出,而且对相邻地区产生“非自愿”的溢出效应,但省份内FDI溢出效应作用更为明显。在改变计量模型、变量测算形式后,上述结论仍然成立,且不同分组样本(不同技术水平、外资进入程度以及是否沿海地区)对应的检验结果存在异质性。市场化程度强化了外资进入对国内价值链地位提升的促进作用。进一步地,外资进入通过提高国内价值链地位对我国产业结构升级产生正向影响,且直接效应比间接效应更为显著。     

Baylor University Roundtable on The Corporate Mission, CEO Pay, and Improving the Dialogue with Investors

A small group of academics and practitioners discusses four major controversies in the theory and practice of corporate finance:

• • What is the social purpose of the public corporation? Should corporate managements aim to maximize the profitability and value of their companies, or should they instead try to balance the interests of their shareholders against those of “stakeholder” groups, such as employees, customers, and local communities?
• • Should corporate executives consider ending the common practice of earnings guidance? Are there other ways of shifting the focus of the public dialogue between management and investors away from near-term earnings and toward longer-run corporate strategies, policies, and goals? And can companies influence the kinds of investors who buy their shares?
• • Are U.S. CEOs overpaid? What role have equity ownership and financial incentives played in the past performance of U.S. companies? And are there ways of improving the design of U.S. executive pay?
• • Can the principles of corporate governance and financial management at the core of the private equity model—notably, equity incentives, high leverage, and active participation by large investors—be used to increase the values of U.S. public companies?

     

Resource misallocation,production efficiency and outward foreign direct investment decisions of Chinese enterprises

Resource misallocation, as an essential characteristic of China’s “progressive reform,” has become a significant factor restricting high-quality outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Using the Database of Chinese Industrial Enterprises (2009–2013), this paper empirically analyzes the impact of resource misallocation on OFDI and its heterogeneous characteristics via the Heckman two-stage selection model. This study finds that total factor productivity has a positive influence on expanding investment quantity. In addition, from the perspective of resource misallocation, factor price distortion inhibits the role of productivity in increasing investment propensity. A mechanism analysis indicates that there is no “productivity paradox” in the decision-making process of OFDI in China as a whole; but there may be an investment productivity paradox in foreign-funded enterprises, enterprises in coastal areas, and large-scale enterprises. After controlling for factor price distortions, the productivity paradox disappears. Thus, total factor productivity (TFP) becomes an important factor in promoting OFDI propensity of overseas-funded enterprises, enterprises in coastal areas and large-scale enterprises.     

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey

What role does trade play in international technology transfer?Do technologies introduced by multinational firms diffuse tolocal firms? What kinds of policies have proved successful inencouraging technology absorption from abroad and why? Usingthese questions as motivation, this article surveys the recenttrade literature on international technology transfer, payingparticular attention to the role of foreign direct investment.The literature argues that trade necessarily encourages growthonly if knowledge spillovers are international in scope. Empiricalevidence on the scope of knowledge spillovers (national versusinternational) is ambiguous. Several recent empirical plant-levelstudies have questioned earlier studies that argued that foreigndirect investment has a positive impact on the productivityof local firms. Yet at the aggregate level, evidence supportsthe view that foreign direct investment has a positive effecton economic growth in the host country.      

Productivity Spillovers Through Foreign Transactions: The Role of Sector Composition and Local Conditions

We analyze the roles of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports of capital goods as the main drivers of technology diffusion and productivity improvement in a sample of twenty-eight developing economies for the period 1999-2009. We examine changes in the sectoral composition of FDI as well as those local conditions that may facilitate technology adoption. Our results, obtained by the system generalized method of moments estimation method, suggest that the change of FDI from manufacturing to services is productivity enhancing. We also find that those countries with stronger institutions and better social and human development enjoy larger efficiency gains.