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长寿风险证券化的理论研究动态 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
国际寿险业在资本市场上尝试进行长寿风险证券化的同时,学术界也不断在探索长寿风险资本市场的创新性解决方案,并已取得了丰硕的理论成果。本文阐述了关于连续型和触发型长寿债券的设计机制及其定价模型的研究成果;分析了长寿互换的设计机制和定价模型的研究进展;梳理了其他长寿风险金融衍生工具的设计机制和定价模型的研究动态。 相似文献
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长寿互换是一种交易双方基于目标人群未来实际生存率和预期生存率之间的差异定期交换现金流的合约。与长寿债券相比,长寿互换具有交易成本低、操作简捷和灵活性高等优势。本文首先阐述了长寿互换的市场发展;其次分析了长寿互换的运行机制;最后推导了基于Wang转换的带触发机制的长寿互换的具体定价解析式。 相似文献
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长寿风险已成为养老保障发展所面临的重要风险,而作为养老保障产品供给者的政府、年金和寿险公司等机构难以持续、有效地管理长寿风险。本文在分析长寿风险发展态势和现有管理方案的缺陷后,研究了最近的长寿风险管理工具创新及其发展动向,即死亡率巨灾债券、EIB/BNP长寿债券和远期等,并在此基础上分析了基于资本市场的长寿/死亡率风险相关衍生品设计与交易,包括长寿债券、死亡率互换、死亡率期货和死亡率期权,最后是长寿/死亡率衍生品交易市场建设的启示。 相似文献
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长寿风险近年来对各国保险业、养老金体系、社会保障体系造成大规模影响,成为保险和风险管理学术界关注和研究的重点。采用国际前沿的研究方法,系统深入地采用中国数据研究这一问题。在Lee-Carter模型的基础上,通过双指数跳跃扩散模型对Lee-Carter模型中的时间序列因子进行拟合,较好地刻画了中国人口死亡率的长寿跳跃和死亡跳跃;引用Swiss Re死亡债券度量长寿风险的市场价格,预估未来中国人口死亡率,并得出了寿险衍生品Q型远期的中国定价。 相似文献
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伴随着长寿风险的累积,养老保障型产品提供者管理长寿风险的压力逐步凸显,本文主要对比分析了不同长寿风险管理方法,并通过研究Swiss Re死亡率证券和EIB/BNP长寿债券的设计,分析了各类养老基金通过资本市场实现长寿风险转移与对冲管理的可能方式。 相似文献
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动态死亡率下个人年金的长寿风险分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
传统的精算定价方法假定死亡率是静态的,实际上死亡率是随时间而变动的具有动态不确定性的变量。在动态死亡率的框架下定量分析长寿风险对于个人年金产品定价的影响:引入Wang转换的风险定价方法度量长寿风险的市场价格,并运用模拟分析的方法分析长寿风险对个人年金定价的影响。最后,基于分析结果,就保险公司如何管理这一风险给出建议。 相似文献
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In this article, we consider the evolution of the post‐age‐60 mortality curve in the United Kingdom and its impact on the pricing of the risk associated with aggregate mortality improvements over time: so‐called longevity risk. We introduce a two‐factor stochastic model for the development of this curve through time. The first factor affects mortality‐rate dynamics at all ages in the same way, whereas the second factor affects mortality‐rate dynamics at higher ages much more than at lower ages. The article then examines the pricing of longevity bonds with different terms to maturity referenced to different cohorts. We find that longevity risk over relatively short time horizons is very low, but at horizons in excess of ten years it begins to pick up very rapidly. A key component of the article is the proposal and development of a method for calculating the market risk‐adjusted price of a longevity bond. The proposed adjustment includes not just an allowance for the underlying stochastic mortality, but also makes an allowance for parameter risk. We utilize the pricing information contained in the November 2004 European Investment Bank longevity bond to make inferences about the likely market prices of the risks in the model. Based on these, we investigate how future issues might be priced to ensure an absence of arbitrage between bonds with different characteristics. 相似文献
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《Finance Research Letters》2014,11(4):437-445
We develop a sequential pricing framework in a continuous time cash flow model allowing for repeated valuation of different cash flow claims. One claim is valued until a prespecified boundary is hit, which is subsequently used as the new valuation starting point for the next claim. This highly flexible pricing framework is applied to the pricing of rating-trigger step-up/-down corporate bonds, the coupon payments of which depend on the issuing company’s credit rating. We present a simple closed-form pricing solution for this type of bonds including both a step-up and step-down threshold, as well as a lower default boundary. 相似文献
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《China Journal of Accounting Research》2023,16(1):100288
Using self-made billionaire entrepreneurs in China as a proxy for large entrepreneurs, we examine the impact of institutional environment quality on the longevity of such entrepreneurs. While property rights institutions and contracting institutions are important in explaining macroeconomic growth and small firm growth, we find no evidence that they matter to the longevity of billionaire entrepreneurs. However, we find access to finance to be important to the longevity of billionaire entrepreneurs. Our results help better understand the relative importance of various institutional environment forces to the continuous success of billionaire entrepreneurs. 相似文献
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Pauline Barrieu Harry Bensusan Nicole El Karoui Caroline Hillairet Stéphane Loisel Claudia Ravanelli 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(3):203-231
This article investigates the latest developments in longevity-risk modelling, and explores the key risk management challenges for both the financial and insurance industries. The article discusses key definitions that are crucial for the enhancement of the way longevity risk is understood, providing a global view of the practical issues for longevity-linked insurance and pension products that have evolved concurrently with the steady increase in life expectancy since s. In addition, the article frames the recent and forthcoming developments that are expected to action industry-wide changes as more effective regulation, designed to better assess and efficiently manage inherited risks, is adopted. Simultaneously, the evolution of longevity is intensifying the need for capital markets to be used to manage and transfer the risk through what are known as Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS). Thus, the article will examine the emerging scenarios, and will finally highlight some important potential developments for longevity-risk management from a financial perspective with reference to the most relevant modelling and pricing practices in the banking industry. 相似文献
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关于三月浮息债负利差产生的原因与投资建议 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
该文基于Shibor报价工作实践,首先从投资者类型、债券流动性等多角度列举了浮息债定价的影响因素,分析了当前3M_Shibor浮息债利差持续为负的原因,然后在探讨归纳3M_Shibor的定价机理和阐释近期Shibor报价新特征的基础上,对3M_Shibor中期走势进行展望,并就投资3M_Shibor浮息债时需关注的问题予以提示。 相似文献
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Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will lead to a more secure pension savings market, together with a more efficient annuity market. By issuing longevity bonds, governments can aid the establishment of reliable longevity indices and key price points on the longevity risk term structure and help the emerging capital market in longevity-linked instruments to build on this term structure with liquid longevity derivatives. 相似文献
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Yinglu Deng Patrick L. Brockett Richard D. MacMinn 《The Journal of risk and insurance》2012,79(3):697-721
Securitizing longevity/mortality risk can transfer longevity/mortality risk to capital markets. Modeling and forecasting mortality rate is key to pricing mortality‐linked securities. Catastrophic mortality and longevity jumps occur in historical data and have an important impact on security pricing. This article introduces a stochastic diffusion model with a double‐exponential jump diffusion process that captures both asymmetric rate jumps up and down and also cohort effect in mortality trends. The model exhibits calibration advantages and mathematical tractability while better fitting the data. The model provides a closed‐form pricing solution for J.P. Morgan’s q‐forward contract usable as a building block for hedging. 相似文献
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This article explores the trade‐offs associated with government issuance of longevity bonds as a way of stimulating private annuity supply in the presence of aggregate mortality risk. We provide new calculations suggesting a 5 percent chance that aggregate mortality risk could ex post raise annuity costs for private insurers by as much as 5–10 percentage points, with the most likely effect based on historical patterns toward the lower end of that range. While we suspect that aggregate mortality risk does exert some upward pressure on annuity prices, evidence from private market pricing suggests that, to the extent that private insurers are accurately pricing this risk, the effect is less than 5 percentage points. We discuss ways that the private market can spread this risk, while emphasizing that the government has the unique ability to spread aggregate risk across generations. We note factors that might hamper such an efficient allocation of risk, including potential political incentives for the government to shift more than the optimal amount of risk onto future generations, and the possibility that government fiscal policy might allocate risk less efficiently within each generation than would private markets. We also discuss how large‐scale longevity bond issuance might affect government borrowing costs, as well as political economy aspects of how the proceeds from such a bond issuance might be used. 相似文献