Risk and the miller equilibrium: Capital structure choice with risk-averse investors

Merton Miller's (1977) tax model of equilibrium capital structure choice results in capital structure irrelevance and the existence of tax clienteles, assuming the restrictive case of risk-neutrality. Relaxation of the assumption of risk-neutrality in Miller's tax framework, allowing utility-maximizing risk-averse investors, indicates that capital structure irrelevance continues to hold under reasonable assumptions about utility. Evaluation of resulting tax clienteles shows that marginal tax rates do not restrict investors from investing in equities but do affect the tax status of purchased bonds.     

Financial leverage clienteles: Theory and evidence

This paper examines the hypothesis that investors will sort themselves out into tax-induced ‘financial leverage clienteless’ in which the common stocks of highly levered firms will be held by individuals with low personal tax rates, while the shares of firms with little or no leverage will be held by individuals with high personal tax rates. Although the idea of financial leverage clienteless has appeared in the literature before, the immediate motivation for this investigation is a recent paper by Merton Miller. In that paper he argues that under the current U.S. tax structure, personal taxes will offset corporate taxes such that in equilibrium the value of any individual firm will be independent of its use of debt financing. We extend his analysis to show specifically the way in which financial leverage clienteles would come about in his assumed tax environment. We then conduct some direct empirical tests of the leverage clientele hypothesis. These tests can also be viewed as indirect tests of Miller's new proposition on the irrelevance of capital structures. The results of the tests are mixed: The relationship between corporate leverage policies and investors' tax rates is statistically significant, but its magnitude is less than would be predicted by the theory.     

The Market Valuation of Cash Dividends and the Tax Differential Theory of Dividend Policy: A Case Revisited

One of the most controversial areas in finance concerns the relevance or irrelevance of dividend policy. Survey results reported by researchers indicate that corporate chief financial officers believe that dividend policy does affect stock prices. One factor that could cause dividend policy to matter is possible tax effects. However, although many maintain that tax treatment would favor low payout, Miller and Scholes argue that tax policy is irrelevant. The latest change in the tax code, which removed the lower capital gains tax rate, provides a unique opportunity to examine the relevance of tax policy alone. This study revisits the Citizens Utilities case, which was used by Long and Poterba. We conclude that the market for Citizens Utilities shares indicates that tax policy does influence value.     

On the Relevance of Debt Maturity Structure

In this paper, we present a tax-induced framework to analyze debt maturity problems. We show that under some modifications of the existing U.S. tax code, debt maturity is irrelevant even in the presence of taxes and bankruptcy costs that yield an optimal capital structure. If this restrictive structure is relaxed, and assuming the Miller [15] equilibrium does not prevail, tax reasons would usually imply the existence of an optimal debt maturity structure. If there exists a gain from leverage, then an increasing term structure of interest rates, adjusted for default risk, results in long-term debt being optimal. A decreasing term structure, under similar circumstances, renders short-term debt optimal. In the absence of agency costs, a Miller [15]-type result emerges at equilibrium and irrelevance prevails. We also argue that agency costs could again reverse the irrelevance and imply a firm-specific optimal debt maturity structure.     

The Asset Price Theory of Shareholder Revaluations: Tests with the Tax Reforms of the 1980s

A tax reform providing incentives for fixed investment may increase shareholder wealth because after-tax cash flows on planned investment increase. Alternatively, shareholder wealth may decline because existing assets receive disadvantageous tax treatment relative to new ones and equities are largely claims on existing assets. This study tests the alternative hypothesis by predicting in a simulation model the revaluation of existing assets resulting from the 1981 and 1986 tax acts and then by comparing the predictions to stock returns data. The results reject the hypothesis that cumulative excess returns accruing because of tax reform equal the revaluation on existing assets.     

Strategic reaction and tax avoidance: Evidence from the effect of large IPOs on peers

We examine whether and how industry peers use tax avoidance as a strategic mechanism to maintain their relative competitive positions. We exploit a unique setting where a relatively large private firm obtains capital, visibility, and creditability by going public (i.e., an IPO), imposing significant competitive pressure on its industry peers. We find that peer firms increase tax avoidance after large IPOs. Further analysis shows that the increase of tax avoidance is driven by firms with high growth needs and firms with high operating uncertainty, suggesting that tax aggressiveness is aligned with other strategic risk-taking changes to improve industry competitiveness. We rule out two alternative explanations: 1) existing peers use relative product market power to hedge against tax risk and engage in tax avoidance; 2) peers mimic the tax avoidance behavior of IPO firms. The main finding is supported by the difference-in-differences test with coarsened exact matching and a battery of robustness tests, including alternative measures and alternative large IPO selection criteria.     

The Pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds and the Miller Hypothesis

This paper reports a new test of two competing theories of the relation between tax-exempt and taxable interest rates. The Miller hypothesis predicts that the tax-exempt rate is 52 percent of the taxable rate, while the institutional demand hypothesis predicts a volatile relationship. The tests in this paper employ a random intercept model to control for the risk of average interest rates. The results favor the Miller hypothesis. Marginal tax rates are found to be close to Miller's predicted 48 percent. The relationship is not influenced by relative demand or supply and the marginal tax rate appears stable over time.     

THE DEBT MATURITY CHOICE: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

In this paper I develop and test three nonmutually exclusive hypotheses about the determinants of corporations' debt maturity choices using a sample of corporate bonds issued between 1982 and 1986. The empirical evidence strongly supports the hypothesis that firms use bond maturity to facilitate monitoring by outsiders (the monitoring hypothesis) and weakly supports the hypothesis that firms with high-quality projects use bond maturity to signal project quality (the signaling hypothesis). The evidence does not support the hypothesis that firms use bond maturity to achieve an optimal trade-off between interest tax shields and bankruptcy costs (the tax/bankruptcy cost hypothesis).     

Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle

We show that the annual excess return of the S&P 500 is almost 10 percent higher during the last two years of the presidential cycle than during the first two years. This pattern cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. We formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as an alternative to explain the presidential cycle anomaly. The PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power, as is often believed.     

Testing for Vertical Fiscal Externalities

The purpose of this paper is to design a test of whether the vertical external effects associated with tax base sharing among local and regional governments have become internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. Such tests are important in the sense that the income tax rates chosen by different levels of government will generally be correlated, even if the resource allocation is optimal from society's point of view. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, the results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the vertical external effects have become internalized.     

Market opportunities and owner identity: Are family firms different?

We test the hypothesis that ownership of a firm does not affect the firm's ability to seize market opportunities once decisions about productive structure are taken into account. By grouping firms in size clusters having a similar distance between the actual and the optimal size, we assess how the sensitivity of a firm's sales to market demand changes in response to differences in the owner's identity. We use data from a panel of 4696 continental western European firms over the period 1995–2010 and Eurostat 3-digit sectoral data on firm size distribution. Empirical evidence rejects the hypothesis of ownership irrelevance: family firms are less sensitive to market demand than other firms, in particular when the actual size of the firm is larger than optimal and in the case of both founder- and heir-run family firms.     

Nasdaq ex‐day behavior: An out‐of‐sample test

We test various explanations of the ex‐dividend day price anomaly using Nasdaq‐listed firms. Similar to NYSE‐listed firms, on average the prices of Nasdaq‐listed firms drop by less than the dividend amount. However, the average Nasdaq price‐drop is substantially smaller than what existing theories would predict and translates to an imputed dividend tax rate that is double the maximum tax rate. We thus find little support for the tax hypothesis. We also find little support for the short‐term trading hypothesis and various other explanations. The significant disconnect we document between Nasdaq dividends and price changes seems to support the “free dividends fallacy.”     

Comprehensive versus partial deferred tax liabilities and equity market values

This study investigates the value relevance of the deferred tax liability recognized using comprehensive versus partial allocation. Our research examines New Zealand firms who, prior to the introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards, were free to choose between comprehensive and partial allocation. We test the joint hypothesis that the partial, as opposed to comprehensive, deferred tax liability is relevant for equity valuation and is sufficiently reliable to be reflected in investors’ valuation assessments. Our results are consistent with this prediction.     

Local taxes and political influence: evidence from locally dominant firms in German municipalities

We analyze the impact of locally dominant firms—i.e. firms that contribute a sizeable share to municipalities’ revenues—on local business tax rates. We argue that these firms have considerable political power locally even if they are not large in the regional or national perspective. These locally dominant firms can use their political power to voice their concerns directly vis-à-vis the local government—a channel of influence that is hardly available in municipalities with an atomistic structure of tax payers. We hypothesize that municipalities with locally dominant firms will set lower tax rates than municipalities in which tax-payers’ concentration is low. We test the impact of tax-payers’ concentration on local business tax rates using data from 423 municipalities in the German state Hesse between 1998 and 2005. The estimation technique accounts for spatial lags and autoregressive disturbances. Results support our central hypothesis: the higher the tax-payers’ concentration, the lower the municipal business tax rates.     

The double dividend and the role of inequality aversion and macroeconomic regimes

The introduction of the European Community's carbon-energy tax in a small open economy is analyzed by comparing two kinds of revenue recycling. We use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with different regimes for the labor market, several income groups, and a crude valuation of environmental benefits. This allows for a more comprehensive empirical test of the double-dividend hypothesis, including equity aspects. It is shown that the weak double-dividend hypothesis can fail when equity aspects are taken into account.     

Retail investors exonerated: the case of the January effect

We dispel the belief that the January effect is due to retail investor trading. Previous studies suggest that retail investors, affected by behavioural biases and disproportionally invested in small capitalization stocks, are the source of the January effect. Furthermore, the literature regards retail investor trading and the tax‐loss selling hypothesis as essentially the same explanation. We separate tax implications and market capitalization to show that retail traders are not the cause of the January effect. Our study is an important direct test of whether retail trading causes market anomalies.     

Debt Financing and Tax Status: Tests of the Substitution Effect and the Tax Exhaustion Hypothesis Using Firms' Responses to the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981

This study tests the joint prediction of the substitution effect and the tax exhaustion hypothesis that an increase in non-debt tax shields leads to a decrease in leverage. Controls are introduced for the debt securability effect, the pecking order theory of financing, and the probability of losing tax shields. Using the relationship between changes in investment tax shields and changes in debt tax shields of firms in response to the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, strong empirical support is found for predictions based on the substitution effect and the tax exhaustion hypothesis.     

Dividend distributions and closed-end fund discounts

Empirical support for the hypothesis that closed-end fund discounts are related to overhanging tax liabilities has been mixed. We introduce a new approach to testing this hypothesis by examining changes in discount levels following distributions of dividends and capital gains. Since distributions reduce future shareholder tax liabilities, the tax liability hypothesis implies that closed-end fund discounts should decline following distributions. Focusing on changes in discounts isolates this tax effect by eliminating the impact of other fund-specific factors on discount levels. Our results support the tax liability hypothesis, showing that short-run fluctuations in discounts are directly affected by taxable distributions.     

Is it Free Cash Flow, Tax Savings, or Neither?An Empirical Confirmation of Two Leading Going-private Explanations:The Case of ReLBOs

Firms which 'go private' via a leveraged buyout (LBO) retain the option to 'go public' again, a process known as a reverse LBO transaction. This paper examines the rarer phenomenon of reLBOs; that is, the practice of going private via leveraged buyout, reobtaining public status through a new initial public offering, and then going private a second time. Among the several alternative hypotheses explaining LBOs, we focus on two prominent ones – free cash flow and tax savings – to explain reLBOs. With a sample of 21 reLBO firms, we find no empirical support for the free cash flow hypothesis but detect a significant relationship between the decision to go private for the second time and the tax savings potential of the firm.     

Yes,The APT Is Testable

The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) has been proposed as an alternative to the mean-variance Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). This paper considers the testability of the APT and points out the irrelevance for testing of the approximation error. We refute Shanken's objections, including his assertion that Roll's critique of the CAPM is applicable to the APT. We also explain the testability of the APT on subsets, and we explore the relationship between the APT and the CAPM.