The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the United States. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models which differ in several dimensions to account for the uncertainty that the policymaker faces when setting the monetary policy and evaluating its effect on real economy. We find evidence of a high degree of dispersion across models in both policy rule parameters and impulse response functions. Moreover, monetary policy shocks have very similar recessionary effects on the two economies with a different role played by the participation rate in the transmission mechanism. Finally, we show that a policymaker who does not take model uncertainty into account and selects the results on the basis of a single model may come to misleading conclusions not only about the transmission mechanism, but also about the differences between the euro area and the United States, which are on average essentially small.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

Regulatory Misconceptions in Pricing Thrift Conversions: A Closer Look at the Appraisal Process

This paper offers a critical evaluation of the appraisal equations used to estimate the value of a thrift, converting from a mutual to stock charter. The paper shows that these regulatory appraisal equations are fundamentally flawed and cause appraisers to use fictitious numbers in their analyses. The consequence of this is quite serious, because the appraisal industry used these flawed equations and appraised the value of 1600 converting thrift institutions to be $16 billion for conversions completed during the 1975–1994 period. The paper calls for a close congressional and regulatory scrutiny of the appraisal process in thrift conversions.     

海归与企业出口行为:来自中国的微观证据

海归能否促进母国企业的出口？目前国内还尚未有文献专门对此进行研究。本文使用工业企业微观数据、海关贸易数据以及中国上市公司治理结构研究数据库的合并样本,系统评估了海归对企业出口行为的影响。研究发现,海归对企业出口产生了积极作用,并且上述正向的“出口拉动”效应在样本期内具有持续性而且是逐年递增的。进一步,我们考察了地区制度环境的重要性,发现良好的地区制度环境有利于强化海归对企业出口的促进效应。最后,行业出口质量的动态分解表明,资源再配置效应对行业出口质量提高的贡献高达54%,其在海归促进行业出口质量提高中发挥了关键作用。本文从微观层面证实了海归“出口拉动”效应的存在,对我国有效挖掘海归在提升企业出口竞争力方面的优势和潜力具有政策参考价值。     

Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register

We show that negative monetary policy rates induce systemic banks to reach-for-yield. For identification, we exploit the introduction of negative deposit rates by the European Central Bank in June 2014 and a novel securities register for the 26 largest euro area banking groups. Banks with more customer deposits are negatively affected by negative rates, as they do not pass negative rates to retail customers, in turn investing more in securities, especially in those yielding higher returns. Effects are stronger for less capitalized banks, private-sector (financial and nonfinancial) securities and dollar-denominated securities. Affected banks also take higher risk in loans.     

Uncertainty, Real Options, and Cost Behavior: Evidence from Washington State Hospitals

This study tests an implication of the real‐options theory of investment, that uncertainty leads firms to prefer technologies with low fixed and high variable costs. In 1983, a change in Medicare reimbursement increased the uncertainty of revenues for hospitals. Using a sample of 831 departments in 59 Washington State hospitals over the 1977–1994 period, we find that the ratio of variable to total costs increased after 1983. This increase is not attributable to a gradual increase in the ratio over time: We estimate a significant increase after 1983 even after controlling for a time trend. Further, we find a greater increase in the variable‐to‐total cost ratio for hospitals that had higher percentages of Medicare patients, increasing our confidence in the conclusion that the change in cost behavior is attributable to Medicare's change in reimbursement.     

The Capital Structure Puzzle: Another Look at the Evidence

Since the formulation of the Miller and Modigliani propositions over 60 years ago, financial economists have been debating whether there is such a thing as an optimal capital structure—a proportion of debt to equity that can be expected to maximize long‐run shareholder value. Some finance scholars have followed M&M in arguing that both capital structure and dividend policy are irrelevant in the sense of having no significant, predictable effects on corporate market values. Another school of thought holds that corporate financing choices reflect an attempt by corporate managers to balance the tax shields and disciplinary benefits of more debt against the costs of financial distress. Still another theory says that companies do not have capital structure targets, but instead follow a financial pecking order in which retained earnings are generally preferred to outside financing, and debt is preferred to equity when outside funding is required. In reviewing the evidence that has accumulated since M&M, the authors argue that taxes, bankruptcy and other contracting costs, and information costs all appear to play important roles in corporate financing decisions. While much, if not most, of the evidence is consistent with the idea that companies set target leverage ratios, there is also considerable support for the pecking order theory's contention that managements are willing to deviate widely from their targets for long periods of time. According to the authors, the key to reconciling the different theories—and thus to solving the capital structure puzzle—lies in achieving a better understanding of the relation between corporate financing stocks (that is, total amounts of debt and equity) and flows (which security to issue at a particular time). Even when companies have leverage targets, it can make sense to deviate from those targets depending on the costs associated with moving back toward the target. And as the authors argue in closing, a complete theory of capital structure must take account of these adjustment costs and how they affect expected deviations from the targets.     

New Measures for Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement from Treasury Auctions: Alternative to Surveys

In this article, we propose a novel methodology to construct new uncertainty and disagreement measures for the long-term inflation rate with the use of micro data of Treasury auctions. We employ individual bids submitted in Treasury auctions for nominal and inflation indexed bonds. We argue that these newly formed indicators do not have the problems associated with the survey and market-based uncertainty and disagreement measures. We also focus on the interactions of our proposed measures for inflation rate by comparing the measures commonly used in the literature. The findings of this article are believed to enhance the effectiveness of policy-making by introducing new proxies for crucial economic variables and also by providing the opportunity for other emerging economies with inadequate surveys to construct historical uncertainty and disagreement measures for inflation rates.     

Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options

We study the evolution of investor confidence in 1992-1998 over the chance of individual currencies to converge to the Euro, using data on currency option prices. Convergence risk, which may reflect uncertainty over policy commitment as well as exogenous fundamentals, induces a level of implied volatility in excess of actual volatility. This volatility wedge should gradually decrease as confidence grows over time as convergence policy is maintained, and the risk of a reversal is progressively resolved. Empirically, we indeed find a positive volatility wedge which declines over time only for currencies involved in the Euro convergence process. The wedge and other convergence risk measures are correlated with both exogenous fundamentals and proxies for policy commitment uncertainty. We also find that the wedge responds to policy shocks in an asymmetric fashion, suggesting that policy risk is resolved at different rates after negative and positive shocks. Finally, we estimate a regime-switching model of convergence uncertainty, using data on interest rates, currency rates, and currency option prices. The results confirm the time-varying and asymmetric nature of convergence risk, and indicate that investors demand a risk premium for convergence risk.     

欧债危机救助的经验与反思

本文基于欧债危机救助经验,总结出应对债务危机的三大类十条教训。第一类是可以被吸取而且正在被实施的教训,包括资产负债表、监管和灵活汇率的重要性。第二类是一度被吸取,但随着经济周期和资产价格的改善又很快被忘却的教训,包括杠杆的顺周期性、监管自身的周期性和市场的自满情绪。第三类是一直在尝试吸取但始终是挑战的教训,包括和民众沟通,打破利益集团阻挠,推动结构性改革和预防下一个危机。这十条教训也为中国预防和应对危机提供借鉴。     

The overnight interbank market: Evidence from the G-7 and the Euro zone

We study the interbank markets for overnight loans of the major industrial countries, linking the behavior of short-term interest rates to the operating procedures of these countries’ central banks. We find that many of the key behavioral features of US federal funds rates, on which previous studies have focused, are not robust to changes in institutional details, along both cross-sectional and time-series dimensions of the data. Our results indicate that central banks’ operating procedures and intervention styles play a crucial role in shaping empirical features of short-term interest rates’ day to-to-day behavior in industrial countries.     

The Euro and the Changing Face of European Banking: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions

During the last fifteen years, the European banking industry has experienced considerable consolidation through mergers and acquisitions against the background of the introduction of the single currency and reductions in cross‐border barriers. This paper investigates whether these changes impacted on announcement period gains of the banks acquiring targets by examining the pre‐euro, run‐up to the euro and post euro eras. Evidence suggests bidders' gains have fallen with the development of economic and monetary union. It also reveals significant differences in the gains from acquisitions within and outside the eurozone. These results are consistent with increased competition among bidders and increased integration of the market in the eurozone area in the post‐euro era. However, differing results relating to focused and diversifying bids suggest that the level of market integration is sector dependent.     

Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries

We study a sample of nine developed and nine developing countries to evaluate the questions of how foreign income uncertainty and real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty impact international trade and how those impacts vary according to stage of development. RER uncertainty has a negative and significant impact on export growth for six of the nine less developed countries in our sample, while it has an insignificant effect for a majority of the developed countries. In both groups, foreign income uncertainty has a more pervasively significant (and frequently larger) influence on trade than does RER uncertainty.     

Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data

How does uncertainty about fundamentals affect speculation in the foreign exchange markets? This paper studies empirically the role of uncertainty in currency crises. Uncertainty, which is measured using the dispersion of survey forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, is found to have a non-monotonic effect on exchange rate pressures: it heightens speculative pressures when expected fundamentals are good and eases them when they are bad. This prediction is consistent with a broad class of currency crisis theories, ranging from first-generation to global-game models. The proposed empirical strategy remains valid in the presence of forecasters with strategic objectives and addresses potential endogeneity bias by building a novel set of instrumental variables.     

Portfolio rebalancing and the transmission of large-scale asset purchase programs: Evidence from the Euro area

The European Central Bank's large-scale asset purchase program targeted safe assets, but also aimed to impact prices of risky assets. The mechanism for this is the “portfolio rebalancing channel”, where financial institutions’ portfolio decisions impact financial prices more broadly. We examine this mechanism using cross-sectional heterogeneity in how the financial portfolios of different sectors of the European economy were affected around the purchase program. We find evidence of rebalancing. In vulnerable countries, where macroeconomic unbalances and relatively high risk premia remained, we document rebalancing towards riskier securities. In less vulnerable countries, based on granular information for large European banks, we document rebalancing toward bank loans.     

Net Operating Working Capital Behavior: A First Look

Net operating working capital captures multiple dimensions of firms’ adjustments to operating and financial conditions. Sales growth, uncertainty of sales, costly external financing, and financial distress encourage firms to pursue more aggressive working capital strategies. Firms with greater internal financing capacity and superior capital market access employ more conservative working capital policies. Results are robust to unobserved heterogeneity and industry effects. The evidence suggests that operating and financing conditions should be considered when evaluating working capital behavior, not just industry averages. Additionally, industry concentration magnifies the effect of sales growth.     

Price Rigidity in Turkey: Evidence from Micro Data

In this study we investigate the duration of consumer price spells and price change patterns for Turkey by employing a comprehensive micro price data covering around 6,000 items over four years. In detail, we analyze how long typical price spell lasts and we investigate the size, frequency, distribution and synchronization of price changes. Compared to advanced economies, a higher frequency of price changes is estimated. Findings suggest substantial heterogeneity among sub-groups in terms of frequency and synchronization indicators. The mixed evidence of both state and time-dependent pricing is also relevant for Turkey, an emerging market economy.