基于CVM的我国农业气象指数保险支付意愿分析——以浙江柑橘种植户为例

支付意愿反映的保险需求关系到保险的发展。首先以基于二分选择式条件估值法(CVM)获取的浙江省衢州市柑橘种植户调查数据为例,对农户购买农业气象指数保险的平均支付意愿(WTP)进行了测算,得出农户平均支付意愿为78.21元/亩,远低于理论厘定的保费。然后,运用Logit模型对农户购买气象指数保险支付意愿的影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示价格水平、气象站距离、住房估价和贷款额与农户购买气象指数保险的支付意愿显著负相关,而柑橘收入比重和农户对农业保险的认可度与农户购买气象指数保险的支付意愿显著正相关。最后,根据研究结论得到了几点有利于解决农业气象指数保险需求不足的启示。     

农业保险补贴效率的影响因素分析——以新疆、黑龙江和江苏省农户的支付意愿数据为例

预算约束通常要求极大化政策支持的社会福利。在其他条件相同的情况下，政策性农业保险补贴的社会福利取决于农民对于农业保险的需求：补贴的数量和补贴后可能得到的福利都取决于农民的真实需求。在缺乏显示性偏好的情况下，支付意愿是一种测定真实需求的常用方法。以新疆棉花保险、黑龙江玉米保险、江苏水稻、小麦保险为研究对象，利用开放的二分选择式的奈件估价法（CVM）获取农户对于农业保险的支付意愿（WTP）的数据，通过相关性研究发现，农业保险的支付意愿不仅受家庭收入、产量波动、损失频率、投保作物占家庭收入比重等与农业生产风险相关的因素的影响，同时还受保险意识和对政府信任程度的影响。     

代际转移与商业养老保险对老年收入的影响差异研究

构建混合利他动机和交换动机下的世代交叠模型,研究个人最优消费决策,测算商业养老保险与代际转移对老年收入水平的影响。结果发现：代际转移支付比例提高会减少商业养老保险的购买,进而降低老年收入水平,与其他因素相比,保险价格变动对保险需求的影响最明显。鉴于此,应丰富居民投资结构,建设高质量的教育体系,发挥家庭养老除代际转移支付之外的多样化功能,同时通过供给侧降费推动居民参与商业养老保险。     

洪水保险：需求、供给与公共政策

在各种自然灾害风险中,洪水风险对于中国而言是最常见、最严重和损失恢复缓慢的风险之一。相对于低风险地区,高风险地区的住房和财产由于缺少洪水保险的保障更易于暴露在洪水风险中。研究中挑选高风险地区作为样本,对不同地区洪水保险的供需缺口进行估计并排序。基于此结果得出如下结论：洪水保险的需求更可能受到不同地区洪水风险等级水平和经济基础决定的损失恢复能力的影响;与不同的需求水平相比较,洪水保险供给存在明显不足和结构化问题。多种因素共同作用影响洪水保险供需缺口;政府被认为能够通过诸如在供给端建立跨区域和国家层面的洪水巨灾分散机制和在需求端对保险费提供动态差异性补贴等综合性公共政策弥补洪水保险的供需缺口。     

能繁母猪保险政策的养殖户支付意愿分析

能繁母猪保险作为农业政策性保险,是我国重要的支农政策手段之一。本文基于广东、四川两省293份生猪养殖户调查问卷,从政策需求角度,运用支付意愿法获得养殖户对能繁母猪保险的支付意愿及对母猪保险政策评价等数据,以此分析该政策的福利效应及实施效果。研究结果发现,能繁母猪保险的支付意愿受农户收入、损失效率、养殖户文化程度及生猪养殖风险等因素影响。政府应提高农民风险意识,增强保险公司积极性,保持该政策的连贯性等来提高其实施效果。     

新冠肺炎疫情对商业健康保险需求意愿的影响研究 ——基于河南省的调查分析

在分析新冠肺炎疫情对商业健康保险需求影响机理的基础上,基于微观调查数据,应用二元logistic模型和二分类因变量中介效应模型,检验新冠肺炎疫情对居民商业健康保险需求意愿的影响.研究发现:第一,新冠肺炎疫情对商业健康保险需求意愿具有显著的正向影响;第二,新冠肺炎疫情通过中间变量对商业健康保险需求意愿产生影响.居民风险保障意识在新冠肺炎疫情与商业健康保险需求意愿之间起到了促进作用,国家免费治疗政策替代性的认知一定程度上影响了新冠肺炎疫情对居民购买商业健康保险需求意愿的提升程度.基于此,从保险公司完善针对特殊疫情的保险产品、政策支持保险产品创新、提升居民健康保险知识素养、加强医疗与保险场景深度融合等几方面提出对策建议.     

基于DFA方法的中国洪水保险定价研究

对洪水保险进行精确有效的定价十分困难.动态财务分析模型(DFA)能够有效的将多种因素综合在一起进行分析,弥补了以往洪水保险定价方法以单一时点统计数据作为定价基础的缺陷;再保险安排是洪水保险计划中的一个重要组成部分,购买60%比例再保险是最适当的;购买再保险能够极大的降低洪水保险计划的破产概率.     

行为保险学系列(二十九):传统保险供给理论的五大缺陷和改进思路

首先需要说明的是,在经济学中,供给分析和市场分析是很难分家的,企业的供给决策一定是在市场环境下做出的,这个市场环境可能是竞争市场也可能是垄断市场,企业需要通过产量选择策略、定价策略(如价格歧视、两部定价、搭售、广告等)等来参与市场竞争,实现利润最大化,因此,这里讲的保险公司供给理论,也很难将保险供给分析和市场分析分开来讨论,于是,本文就将保险公司在不同市场环境下的竞争决策、竞争策略或竞争行为统称为保险供给分析,将分析上述行为的理论称为保险供给理论。     

中国长期护理保险市场潜力研究

随着人口老龄化形势的日益严峻,我国社会保障体系亟待建立长期护理保障项目。目前,国内文献缺乏对于长期护理保险需求供给市场潜力的基础性研究。为此,本文对于我国长期护理保险需求供给市场潜力问题进行了系统性的阐述。首先,通过人口模型产生未来人口年龄变动数据,并结合长期风险发生率和费用支付标准假设对我国长期护理保险动态需求进行测算;其次,基于长期护理社会保障系数和产品精算模型,对我国长期护理公共财政转移支付能力和个人筹资能力进行测算。研究结果显示:我国长期护理费用支出给全社会带来的经济负担日趋严重,在不考虑制度运行成本的前提下,建立长期护理保险模式分散风险在筹资机制上具有可行性。     

农户互助合作保险参与意愿研究——以山东省诸城市特种动物养殖互助合作保险为例

互助合作保险是国际上广泛采用的一种农村保险组织形式,可以有效降低保险市场信息不对称问题,规避道德风险和逆向选择,以低廉的价格提供保险保障,是股份制保险组织的有效补充。以山东省诸城市特种动物养殖互助合作保险为例,采用入户问卷调查的方式获取第一手数据,并采用条件价值评估法(CVM)和最小二乘法(OLS)对养殖户参保特种动物养殖互助合作保险的支付意愿和影响因素分别进行研究分析,最后提出有关政策建议。     

Nonlinear pricing and exclusion:II. Must‐stock products

Dominant firms often are unavoidable trading partners. Buyers may consider switching a fraction of their requirements to rival products, but that fraction is highly uncertain in rapidly evolving industries. Nonlinear pricing serves to adjust the competitive pressure placed on rival firms, depending on the joint distribution of the buyer willingness to pay for the rival's good and the share of contestable demand. Concave price‐quantity schedules erect barriers to entry. Convex parts in schedules introduce barriers to expansion. Dominant firms use all‐units discounts to create high entry barriers for rival firms with intermediate levels of contestable demand.     

Rural Homeowners’ Willingness to Buy Flood Insurance

Houses are the primary asset for Chinese rural families. However, dramatically increasing frequency and severity of floods have caused significant loss in rural houses recently, and there is generally no insurance available. In this article, we investigate the rural residents’ willingness to buy insurance according to a national survey. The results show that there exists a strong need for flood insurance in rural China, and the influencing factors in the insurance demand include the recent frequency of floods, income, and past experience with lack of flood insurance. Policy suggestions for flood insurance are provided for the insurance industry and Chinese government.     

Framing the decision to buy long-term care insurance: losses and gains in the context of statistical and narrative evidence

Rational models have difficulty explaining low levels of demand for long-term care insurance. We posit that insurers have framed the need for insurance in a manner that unintentionally promotes risk-seeking behavior (i.e., high probability loss frame), and that alternative frames can better promote willingness to insure. We further posit that emotional frames are more effective than rational risk frames in promoting willingness to pay. Survey evidence supports these hypotheses: emotional narrative frames are associated with greatest willingness to pay, and the high probability loss frame was associated with among the lowest average amounts willing to pay.     

Investment guarantees in unit-linked life insurance from the customer perspective

Interest rate guarantees are a typical contract feature in unit-linked-life insurance products. As the financial crisis of 2007/2008 has shown, these guarantees can be of substantial value for policyholders since they ensure that at least a minimum amount will be paid back even if the mutual fund value falls below a specific guaranteed level. However, from the insurance company’s view, these guarantees can be costly—especially in highly volatile markets—due to the required risk management measures which must be undertaken to secure the guarantees promised to the customers. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate whether customers really value these guarantees and if their willingness to pay (WTP) is sufficient to cover the guarantee costs. To elicit customer WTP, we use an online questionnaire and compare these results to the actual guarantee costs calculated with the Black and Scholes option pricing formula. One main finding is that even though most of the participants in the online questionnaire work in the financial industry, subjective prices are difficult to derive and are lower, on average, than the prices obtained using a financial pricing model. However, many participants are still willing to pay a substantially higher price.     

Creating Customer Value in Participating Life Insurance

The value of a life insurance contract may differ depending on whether it is looked at from the customer's point of view or that of the insurance company. We assume that the insurer is able to replicate the life insurance contract's cash flows via assets traded on the capital market and can hence apply risk‐neutral valuation techniques. The policyholder, on the other hand, will take risk preferences and diversification opportunities into account when placing a value on that same contract. Customer value is represented by policyholder willingness to pay and depends on the contract parameters, that is, the guaranteed interest rate and the annual and terminal surplus participation rate. The aim of this article is to analyze and compare these two perspectives. In particular, we identify contract parameter combinations that—while keeping the contract value fixed for the insurer—maximize customer value. In addition, we derive explicit expressions for a selection of specific cases. Our results suggest that a customer segmentation in this sense, that is, based on the different ways customers evaluate life insurance contracts and embedded investment guarantees while ensuring fair values, is worthwhile for insurance companies as doing so can result in substantial increases in policyholder willingness to pay.     

医疗保险定额付费方式有效性的探讨

医疗保险中的定额付费方式指不论实际发生了多少医疗费用,均以事先确定的标准向医疗机构支付费用,这种支付方式的有效运作意味着可以在控制医疗费用的同时又确保医疗质量.本文认为可能对定额付费方式有效性产生影响的因素包括服务质量对患者诊疗需求的影响程度;医疗机构增加患者诊疗需求的意愿;医疗机构的拒诊和撇脂行为;经办机构在合同签订...     

Don't They Care? Or,Are They Just Unaware? Risk Perception and the Demand for Long‐Term Care Insurance

The potential need for long‐term care (LTC) is one of the greatest financial risks faced not only by the elderly but also by their adult children, who often provide care or financial assistance. We investigate adult children's role in the demand for LTC insurance. Similar to flood insurance, we find that demand for LTC insurance is low due to low risk perception. The more aware adult children are of the risk, the more likely LTC insurance is to be purchased, either by the children themselves on behalf of their parents or by the parents under the influence of their children.     

Zur bedeutung einer Ausfallbedrohtheit von Versicherungskontrakten — ein Beitrag zur Behavioral Insurance

Kahneman / Tversky 1979 introduced the notion of so-called probabilistic insurance contracts. These are insurance policies involving a small probability that the consumer is not reimbursed because of a possible default of the insurance company. Extending the study ofWakker / Thaler / Tversky 1997, the present study contains an experimental analysis of the willingness of potential policyholders to pay for probabilistic insurance in dependency on the rating of the insurance company. It can be shown that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand a substantial reduction in the premium to compensate for default risk. This reduction is rising with the default risk of the company. In addition, the results show a new phenomenon. The more an insurance company is threatened by default risk the less people are willing to accept contracts of this company at all. Finally the paper discusses implications for the control of insurance companies.     

福建省发展地方优势特色农产品保险的实践和思考

发展现代农业,就必须解决农业生产面临的自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,就需要大力发展农业保险分散风险.当前,一些地方优势特色农产品保险发展还不够充分,不能有效分散地方优势特色农产品自然灾害和市场价格波动风险,成为制约地方优势农产品持续发展的一个因素.在供给侧,农业保险经营主体能力有待提高,保障的总体水平仍然偏低,保险产品种类少,产品设计重物不重人.在需求侧也存在一些地方政府重视不够,投入不足,农民投保意愿不强等短板.为此,建议供需两侧同步发力,共同推动地方优势特色农产品保险高质量发展,更好分散地方优势特色农业生产经营风险.供给侧注重保险产品创新、保险机构服务能力提升,需求侧增加财政投入、调动农民参保缴费积极性.