In America's thrall: the effects of the US market and US security characteristics on Australian stock returns

Can Australian equity returns be modelled by ‘home‐grown’ factors? We examine the indigenous capital asset pricing model, the indigenous Fama–French three‐factor model, and extensions to the latter, and find them all wanting. We find evidence of domestic market segmentation in Australia. For the smallest firms, all the models we study fail. For the largest Australian firms, we find that the US Fama–French three factors (downloaded from French's website: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ ) provide a successful model of Australian returns. It is as if the largest firms in the Australian market are simply part of the larger US market.     

The changing trends of corporate social and environmental disclosure within the Australian gambling industry

This study examines how the corporate social and environmental disclosure (CSD) practices of a sample of gambling companies operating within Australia appears to change around the time of three specific interrelated Australian government initiatives; the Productivity Commission, 1999, Australia's Gambling Industries, Report No. 10, the subsequent establishment of the Ministerial Council on Gambling and the MCG‐initiated National Framework on Problem Gambling. Drawing upon three complementary theories, namely legitimacy, stakeholder and institutional theory, our analysis of the extent and type of CSD in the annual reports of gambling companies over a 15 year period suggests that CSD is a response to social pressures created around the time of these initiatives.     

What Drives Private Equity Returns?– Fund Inflows,Skilled GPs,and/or Risk?*

This paper analyzes the determinants of returns generated by mature European private equity funds. It starts from the presumption that this asset class is characterized by illiquidity, stickiness, and segmentation. Given this presumption, Gompers and Lerner (2000) have shown that venture deal valuations are driven by overall fund inflows into the industry that yield the putative ‘money chasing deals’ phenomenon. It is the aim of this paper to show that this phenomenon explains a significant part of the variation in private equity funds' returns. This is especially true for venture funds, as they are affected more by illiquidity and segmentation than buy‐out funds. In the context of a WLS‐regression approach the paper reports a highly significant impact of total fund inflows on fund returns. It can also be shown that private equity funds' returns are driven by GP's skills as well as stand‐alone investment risk. In a bootstrapping context we can show that most of these results are quite stable.     

A best choice among asset pricing models? The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model in Australia

We use Australian data to test the Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (Jagannathan and Wang, 1996). Our results are generally supportive: the model performs well compared with a number of competing asset pricing models. In contrast to the study by Jagannathan and Wang, however, we find that the inclusion of the market for human capital does not save the concept of the time‐independent market beta (it remains insignificant). We find support for the role of a small‐minus‐big factor in pricing the cross‐section of returns and find grounds to disagree with Jagannathan and Wang's argument that this factor proxies for misspecified market risk.     

Valuing Loss Firms: What Can Be Learned From Analysts' Forecasts?

Prior research documents an anomalous negative price–earnings relation when a simple earnings capitalization model is estimated for loss‐making firms. Collins et al. (1999 ) suggest that the model is misspecified due to the omission of book value of equity. However, results from previous studies are confusing. We try to enrich prior literature by focusing on analysts' forecasts. In particular, we assess the role of earnings and book value in valuing loss firms using several measures based on the information provided by analysts. We hypothesize that the role of accounting figures depends on whether the loss firm is supported or not by investors. According to this argument, we construct several measures of investor support based on analysts' forecasts, and then test the value relevance of accounting information depending on the degree of support. Our results confirm the usefulness of the notion of ‘investor support’. For those loss firms that are expected to liquidate, we find that the inclusion of book value of equity in the model removes the negative sign on the earnings coefficient. However, for those loss firms that are expected to reverse current losses, we find that the coefficient on earnings remains negative despite the inclusion of book value.     

Is liquidity the missing link?

Durand et al. (2006a ) argue that the Australian market is both internationally integrated and domestically segmented. They find that the US‐based three‐factor model captures returns of the largest stocks in Australia (evidence of international integration), but that it is unable to account for the returns of the smallest stocks (evidence of domestic segmentation). This study resolves the puzzle left by Durand et al. (2006a) . Incorporating a liquidity factor provides the missing link in their analysis: it results in a model that permits both the international integration of the largest stocks and the model can account for the returns of the smallest stocks. Our analysis highlights the important role of liquidity in Australian asset pricing.     

Do principles‐based accounting standards lead to biased financial reporting? An Australian experiment

International accounting standards are deliberately designed to be principles‐based (i.e. ‘substance over form’). With Australia's recent adoption of international accounting standards, a relevant question is, do principles‐based accounting standards lead to biased financial reporting? The present paper describes a study that analysed the consolidation judgements of senior accounting officials from Australian listed companies. Participants made consolidation judgements based on AASB 1024 Consolidated Accounts. Although AASB 1024 is not identical to IAS 27 Consolidated and Separate Financial Statements, there are many similarities and both follow a principles‐based approach. In aggregate, the present study finds that principles‐based accounting standards do not necessarily lead to biased financial reporting.     

The Epstein–Zin Model with Liquidity Extension

In this paper, we extend the Epstein–Zin model with liquidity risk and assess the extended model's performance against the traditional consumption pricing models. We show that liquidity is a significant risk factor, and it adds considerable explanatory power to the model. The liquidity‐extended model produces both a higher cross‐sectional R² and a smaller Hansen and Jagannathan distance than the traditional consumption‐based capital‐asset pricing model and the original Epstein–Zin model. Overall, we show that liquidity is both a priced factor and a key contributor to the extended Epstein–Zin model's goodness‐of‐fit.     

Benchmarking benchmarks: measuring characteristic selectivity using portfolio holdings data

This study proposes methodological adjustments to the widely adopted performance benchmarking methodology of Daniel et al. (1997 ) as a means of improving the precision of alpha measurement for active equity fund managers. We achieve this by considering the monthly updating of characteristic benchmarks and to ensure neutrality to the Standard & Poor's/Australian Stock Exchange 300 index. Applying this benchmark to a representative sample of active Australian equity funds and simulated passive portfolios that mimic fund manager‐style characteristics, we find statistically different and lower tracking error compared with using the standard characteristic benchmark methodology. We also find evidence that the modified benchmark statistically infers an alpha closer to zero compared with the standard benchmark methodology. Our findings suggest that improved specifications of characteristic benchmarks represent better methods in quantifying fund manager skill.     

How Do Investors Regard ESOs?

All top‐50 and more than 80% of the top‐500 Australian listed companies now reward their executives with stock options (ESOs) of one kind or another.₁ We address the question: “Which method of accounting for ESOs — current practice, the US FASB's recommended practice or the AASB's preferred position — most closely reflects investors' pricing decisions?” We answer the question using models that relate a company's stock price to its earnings and book value of equity calculated according to these three choices of accounting treatment.     

Law and Executive Compensation: A Cross‐Country Study

Companies outside the U.S. use substantially less equity in their compensation mix than U.S. firms. But despite this consistent “cross‐sectional” difference, the pattern of changes in equity‐based pay of non‐U.S. companies over time appears to mirror changes in the pay of U.S. companies. The authors provide persuasive evidence that features of a nation's legal environment help explain major differences in compensation structure across countries. As a general rule, companies in countries that provide greater protection of shareholder rights use larger amounts of equity‐based compensation. And the equity mix also tends to be higher when a country's legal system ensures strict enforcement of the laws that are on the books. At the same time, since the equity mix varies considerably over time within the same legal environment, it is clear that factors other than the legal environment affect compensation structure. The authors report that, after controlling for legal factors, company‐specific variables that proxy for “agency” conflicts—not only between managers and shareholders, but between controlling and minority shareholders as well—also affect the compensation mix in fairly predictable ways. The bottom line of this study is that, although we may have a global market for talent, compensation structures across countries are not likely to converge unless and until the underlying legal protections afforded shareholders converge. At the same time, the effect of agency costs in compensation design for non‐U.S. firms appears to be partly conditioned by the nation's legal system and the entire set of regulatory and other institutions that are affected by it.     

Capital Structure Swaps and Shareholder Wealth

We show how capital structure swaps can increase the wealth of a firm's long‐term shareholders when a firm's debt or equity is misvalued. We review the conventional rule that a firm should issue equity and use the proceeds to retire outstanding debt (an equity‐for‐debt swap) when equity is overvalued, or repurchase equity with proceeds of new debt (a debt‐for‐equity swap) when equity is undervalued. We also analyse the more complex case where a firm's debt and equity are both undervalued, showing the optimal swap may be to issue undervalued equity, contrary to the conventional rule.     

Tangibility and investment irreversibility in asset pricing

Zhang (2005) and Cooper (2006) provide a theoretical risk‐based explanation for the value premium by suggesting a nexus between firms’ book‐to‐market ratio and investment irreversibility. They argue that unproductive physical capacity is costly in contracting conditions but provides growth opportunities during economic expansions, resulting in covariant risk between firms’ investment in tangible assets and market‐wide returns. This article uses the Australian accounting environment to empirically test this theory – a test that is not possible using US data. Consistent with the theoretical argument, tangibility is priced in equity returns, and augmenting the Fama and French three‐factor model with a tangibility factor increases model explanatory power.     

Evidence on the Trade-Off between Risk and Return for IPO and SEO Firms

Do the low long‐run average returns of equity issuers reflect underperformance due to mispricing or the risk characteristics of the issuing firms? We shed new light on this question by examining how institutional lenders price loans of equity issuing firms. Accounting for standard risk factors, we find that equity issuing firms' expected debt return is equivalent to the expected debt return of nonissuing firms, implying that institutional lenders perceive equity issuers to be as risky as similar nonissuing firms. In general, institutional lenders perceive small and high book‐to‐market borrowers as systematically riskier than larger borrowers with low book‐to‐market ratios, consistent with the asset pricing approach in Fama and French (1993) . Finally, we find that firms' expected debt returns decline after equity offerings, consistent with recent theoretical arguments suggesting that firm risk should decline following an equity offering. Overall, our analysis provides novel evidence consistent with risk‐based explanations for the observed equity returns following IPOs and SEOs.     

Why Do European Firms Issue Convertible Debt?

We survey European managers to gain some insights into motivations of convertible issuance. Our analysis shows that a majority of firms issue convertibles as ‘delayed equity’ and as ‘debt sweetener’. Managers also use convertibles to avoid short‐term equity dilution and to signal firm's future growth opportunities. We document a large cross‐sectional variation across firms in rationales for issuing convertibles and find mixed support for most theoretical models. Our evidence suggests that the popularity of convertibles is driven primarily by their versatility in adjusting their design to fit the financing needs of individual firms, and by their increased demand among institutional investors.     

Integrated Reporting: An Opportunity for Australia's Not‐for‐Profit Sector

Integrated Reporting is a new reporting paradigm that is holistic, strategic, responsive, material and relevant across multiple time frames. Emphasising enhanced disclosure of the value drivers for today's organisations, Integrated Reporting represents a journey to more meaningful reporting that can be instrumental for Australia's reporting organisations, including not‐for‐profits. With momentum behind the concept of Integrated Reporting building and contemporaneous local regulatory reform on the agenda, there are nascent opportunities for Integrated Reporting to guide the future of not‐for‐profit reporting in Australia.     

Capital Structure and Debt Priority

We study a defaultable firm's debt priority structure in a simple structural model where the firm issues senior and junior bonds and is subject to both liquidity and solvency risks. Assuming that the absolute priority rule prevails and that liquidation is immediate upon default, we determine the firm's interior optimal priority structure along with its optimal capital structure. We also obtain closed‐form solutions for the market values of the firm's debt and equity. We find that the magnitude of the spread differential between junior and senior bond yields is positively, but not linearly related to the total debt level and the riskiness of assets. Finally, we provide an in‐depth analysis of probabilities of default and the term structure of credit spreads.     

Box-Cox stochastic volatility models with heavy-tails and correlated errors

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate parameters and latent stochastic processes in the asymmetric stochastic volatility (SV) model, in which the Box-Cox transformation of the squared volatility follows an autoregressive Gaussian distribution and the marginal density of asset returns has heavy-tails. We employed the Bayes factor and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to examine whether the Box-Cox transformation of squared volatility is favored against the log-transformation. When applying the heavy-tailed asymmetric Box-Cox transformed SV model, three competing SV models and the t-GARCH(1,1) model to continuously compounded daily returns of the Australian stock index, we find that the Box-Cox transformation of squared volatility is strongly favored by Bayes factors and BIC against the log-transformation. While both criteria strongly favor the t-GARCH(1,1) model against the heavy-tailed asymmetric Box-Cox transformed SV model and the other three competing SV models, we find that SV models fit the data better than the t-GARCH(1,1) model based on a measure of closeness between the distribution of the fitted residuals and the distribution of the model disturbance. When our model and its competing models are applied to daily returns of another five stock indices, we find that in terms of SV models, the Box-Cox transformation of squared volatility is strongly favored against the log-transformation for the five data sets.     

Market microstructure: A review from down under

The early automation of the Australian and New Zealand financial markets provided researchers with access to high‐frequency data to undertake extensive empirical market microstructure research. We use this anniversary edition of Accounting and Finance to review some of this research and to discuss the development of the Australian and New Zealand markets since their automation. We identify issues currently facing the markets and highlight potential areas for future research. The paper also provides a review of market microstructure theory on inventory control models and asymmetric information models.