Real Estate Risk,Corporate Investment and Financing Choice

This paper empirically examines how real estate risk impacts corporate investment and financing decisions. Using a panel of United States firms from 1985 to 2013, we document that real estate risk is negatively associated with firms’ long-term investments and long-term external financing in equity and debt. The results are robust to different risk measurements and in particular salient during the financial crisis period when the endogeneity between risk and investment is less of a concern. The effect on firm leverage, however, depends on risk measures. Overall, in contrast to previously documented positive effects of the real estate value, real estate risk exposure exhibits mostly the opposite effects on investment, financing and capital structure. This difference is consistent with option value determinants. Findings in this paper shed new lights on the impact of real estate holding on corporate decisions, offer a new explanation for the underperformance of hedge funds’ real estate strategies, and confirm the theoretical predictions in Deng et al. (2015).     

Industrial Real Estate Investment: Does the Contrarian Strategy Work?

The superiority of the contrarian investment strategy, though well attested to in the finance literature, has received scant attention, if any, in the real estate literature. This study uses empirical industrial real estate investment return data from 1985Q1 to 2005Q3 for the US, and some Asia Pacific cities in order to ascertain the relative superiority of “value” and “growth” industrial real estate investments. The results show that “value” industrial property investment outperformed “growth” industrial property investment in all the holding periods under consideration. Furthermore the industrial property investments exhibit return reversal. This implies that the superiority of the contrarian strategy is sustainable. The results of stochastic dominance tests validate the relative superiority of “value” over “growth” industrial property investment. This implies that fund managers who traditionally have been favoring prime (i.e. growth) industrial property investment may have to reconsider their investment strategy if they want to maximize their return.     

Time-varying correlation between stock market returns and real estate returns

Direct investment in commercial or residential real estate is found to provide valuable diversification benefits for Australian investors though this is not so evident for indirect real estate investment vehicles like listed Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REIT). Further, multivariate analysis of Australian real estate and share market quarterly returns, spanning the period from the 3rd quarter 1986 to the 3rd quarter 2009, suggest that the correlation between real estate returns and share market returns is time-varying. Finally, while all of the asset class correlation coefficients increased with the Global Financial Crisis period this broad movement in asset class correlation is not evident in during the Wall Street Crash of 1987.     

Hedging Housing Risk*

An unusually rich source of data on housing prices in Stockholm is used to analyze the investment implications of housing choices. This empirical analysis derives market-wide price and return series for housing investment during a 13-year period, and it also provides estimates of the individual-specific, idiosyncratic, variation in housing returns. Because the idiosyncratic component follows an autocorrelated process, the analysis of portfolio choice is dependent upon the holding period. We analyze the composition of household investment portfolios containing housing, common stocks, stocks in real estate holding companies, bonds, and t-bills. For short holding periods, the efficient portfolio contains essentially no housing. For longer periods, low-risk portfolios contain 15 to 50 percent housing. These results suggest that there are large potential gains from policies or institutions that would permit households to hedge their lumpy investments in housing. We estimate the potential value of hedges in reducing risk to households, yet yielding the same investment returns. The value is surprisingly large, especially to poorer homeowners.     

The Determinants of International Commercial Real Estate Investment

We examine the determinants of international commercial real estate investment using a unique set of panel data series for 47 countries worldwide, covering the period from 2000 to 2009. We explore how different socio-economic, demographic and institutional characteristics affect commercial real estate investment activity by determining both cross-sectional and time-series estimators, running augmented random effect panel regressions. We provide evidence that economic growth, rapid urbanization and compelling demographics attract real estate investment, and also demonstrate that a lack of transparency in the legal framework, administrative burdens of doing real estate business, socio-cultural challenges and political instabilities reduce international real estate allocations.     

European Real Estate Research and Education: Development,Globalization, and Maturity

The last 10 years has seen the rapid development of real estate research in Europe and the development of intra-European contacts and networks. At the same time, U.S. academics have become increasingly interested in European real estate research and strong links have developed between European and U.S. real estate academics. Further links have been established between Australasian and European academics. This, of course, has been set against a background of the globalization of real estate investment and the consequent globalization of real estate research. During the same period, specialist real estate education has developed in a number of European countries and the focus in real estate education in the United Kingdom has changed.     

保险资金不动产投资模式研究

本文首先对国际上保险资金进行不动产直接投资和间接投资的情况进行了概述,然后对保险资金不动产投资模式进行了归纳总结和案例分析。在此基础上,对我国目前保险资金不动产投资政策与模式进行了探讨。最后,针对我国保险资金不动产投资业务的发展提出了相关建议。     

Real Estate Fund Flows and the Flow-Performance Relationship

Convexity in the flow-performance relationship of traditional asset class mutual funds is widely documented, however it cannot be assumed to hold for alternative asset classes. This paper addresses this shortcoming in the literature by examining the flow-performance relationship for real estate funds, specifically open-end, direct-property funds. This investment vehicle is designed to provide the risk-return benefits of private market real estate and is available to retail investors in many countries across the globe. An understanding of fund flow dynamics associated with this investment vehicle is of particular interest due to the liquidity risk associated with holding an inherently illiquid asset in an open-end structure. Our analysis draws on the theoretical foundations provided in the literature on mutual fund flows, performance chasing, liquidity risk, participation costs and dynamics across market cycles. We focus on German real estate funds from 1990 to 2010 as this is the largest market globally and there is a high level of confidence in the data. The results show that real estate fund investors chase past performance at the aggregate level and the relationship between flows and relative performance is asymmetric (i.e., convex) at the individual fund level. Fund-level liquidity risk tends to weaken convexity, while sensitivity increases with higher participation costs. We find the flow-performance relationship varies across time, though our interpretation is asset and investment vehicle specific. The implications are applicable to investors and fund managers of open-end, direct-property funds and, more broadly, other alternative asset funds where the underlying asset may not be liquid.     

Risk management of real estate: The case of real estate swaps

Real estate swaps are a recent financial innovation based upon the principle of comparative advantage. A real estate swap is a useful tool for real estate risk management and for participating in real estate investment without the high costs associated with real estate. Potential economic benefits and costs associated with real estate swaps are considered and real estate swaps are compared to alternative tools for real estate risk management. The expected utility and effectiveness of risk management with a swap in a multiperiod framework are analyzed. The analysis finds that the subject property's return and its risk characteristics (as reflected in its correlation with interest rate and property index returns) delimit the risk management potential of a given swap position. Optimal swap positions are shown for various regions and property types based on historical return series, from the period between 1983 and 1992, and the parameters of the dynamic model developed.     

Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

Real Estate Prices and Corporate Investment: Theory and Evidence of Heterogeneous Effects across Firms

In this paper, we investigate the effect of real estate prices on productive investment. We build a theoretical framework of firms' investment with credit rationing and real estate collateral. We show that real estate prices affect firms' borrowing capacities through two channels. An increase in real estate prices raises the value of the firms' pledgeable assets and mitigates the agency problem characterizing the creditor–entrepreneur relationship. It simultaneously cuts the expected profit due to the increase in the cost of inputs. We test our theoretical predictions using a large French database. We do find heterogeneous effects of real estate prices on productive investment depending on the position of the firms in the sectoral distributions of real estate holdings.     

Property Investment and Property Development Firm Performance Around Initial Public Offerings and Rights Offerings: U.K. Evidence

In contrast to the well-documented underperformance of equity issuers, property investment firms undertaking initial public offerings and rights issues have performed indistinguishably from similar nonissuing firms. Property development companies that issued equity over the same period performed significantly worse than nonissuing firms. The major difference between property development and property investment firms is that property investment firms hold portfolios of real estate assets and thus have more certain prices. The lower pricing uncertainty of property investment firms results in normal long-run performance. Tests of the cognitive bias hypothesis provide only weak support of this explanation, while size and book-market effects are unable to account for the performance of property investment and development companies. The findings of underperformance for rights issues suggest that timing equity issues to take advantage of new shareholders may not be linked to the existence of cognitive bias. An important finding for the international growth in securitized real estate markets is that no evidence is found suggesting equity issues of securitized real estate firms should be avoided.     

Modelling Foreign Real Estate Investment: The Spanish Case

Foreign real estate investment in Spain has grown considerably during the last decade, representing around 40% of total foreign direct investment inflows. This trend has exerted an important macroeconomic effect maintaining a long lasting housing bubble and contributing significantly to finance the rising current account deficit. Foreign real estate investment in Spain is mostly of a housing acquisition type and therefore the analysis of its determinants requires a specific approach. In this sense, neither a pure foreign direct investment nor a portfolio theoretical model might be useful. So we propose a modelling of foreign real estate investment for Spain from the point of view of a demand for tourism services and from a financial focus. Using time series data from 1990 to 2007 the hypothesis arising from our foreign real estate investment modelling reveals the consistency of this approach. There seem to be relevant determinants from the demand side and from the financial dimension. Indeed, Gross Domestic Product per capita, expected capital gains, travel costs, tourism agglomeration and housing prices are all relevant factors explaining Foreign real estate investment. We consider that this case study may also be applied to other countries sharing similar foreign real estate investment type flows.     

决定房地产投资的“短边”研究

从过去几轮政策实践来看,我国房地产调控往往是对其供给和需求同时进行,有时 方向甚至是矛盾的。在此背景下,本文基于“短边原则”探讨了房地产市场和房地产投资中的 短边因素,分析了土地与资金对房地产投资的影响,并对2017年房地产投资趋势进行预判。本 文首先根据房地产库存指标判断,供给是决定目前房地产市场及其投资变化的短边;其次,根 据土地、资金与房地产投资的关系,本文认为,在房地产供给方面,2016年10月开始的新一轮 房地产调控中,土地是短边。未来土地（而非资金）或继续成为决定房地产投资走势的短边, 房地产投资将继续延续回落态势。     

房地产上市公司融资模式对投资行为的影响

借鉴 Aivazianetal 简化投资模型建立了融资模式对投资行为影响的理论模型,基于1998~2012年的面板数据,实证研究不同产权属性和不同规模房地产上市公司融资模式对投资行为的影响。研究发现：房地产上市公司的债务融资会促使投资增长,而股权融资会减少投资,内源性融资与投资行为的相关性并不显著;国有房地产上市公司的投资行为更加积极;大规模房地产上市公司受外部融资约束更强。为此,应完善房地产上市公司治理结构、拓宽融资渠道。     

Is There Volatility Convergence in Asia-Pacific Securitized Real Estate Markets?

We assess whether a group of eight Asia-Pacific securitized real estate markets display similar volatility trend over the past 15 years, 1995–2009, using an econometric model that incorporates common volatility effects across the sample markets. The empirical results indicate the presence of at least one common variance component, and thus partial volatility convergence, among the sample Asia real estate securities markets. During the global financial crisis period, some real estate securities markets are co-integrated in both their first and second moments and demonstrate partial price and volatility convergence. Our analysis that focuses in capturing the common roots in the second moment whilst accounting for time-varying variance has important implications for international real estate portfolio investment.     

外资流入房地产业的负面影响及政策建议

本文通过分析近年来江苏省房地产市场外资流入的特点以及流入快速增长的原因,指出外资加速流入房地产行业,无论是对于国家当前的房地产市场调控,还是外汇资金跨境流动管理都存在明显的负面影响,并提出从规范外资准入、抑制非居民房地产投资需求、加强外资流动监测和汇兑管理等多方面促进房地产业合理利用外资的政策建议。     

On the Hybrid Nature of REITs

The consensus that emerges from the current research on the linkage between securitized and direct investment in real estate is that direct (private) real estate returns play a relatively minor role in the real estate investment trust (REIT) return generating process. However, this result may at least partially be due to the coarseness of the measures of direct real estate returns or the relatively short return horizons used in previous studies. This study takes a different and unique perspective. Unlike earlier studies we do not use aggregated, average appraisal based returns on direct real estate investment. Instead, we use the MIT TBI indexes, which are transaction based price indexes, available both on the aggregate and sub-index levels. We find that the relation between REIT and direct real estate returns appears to be stronger at longer horizons. More specifically, using a cointegration framework, we find robust evidence that REITs and the underlying real estate are related and that they share a long run equilibrium. Interestingly, we find that both REITs and direct real estate returns adjust towards this long run relationship. When we examine property type level data we find similar results.     

Determinants of Foreign Versus Domestic Real Estate Investment: Property Level Evidence from Listed Real Estate Investment Firms

We examine the determinants of foreign real estate investment relative to the domestic case using the portfolios of a large sample of publicly traded real estate investment companies; where foreign investment is defined as the property owner headquarters being located in a different country than a given asset. The cross-sectional results provide strong evidence that real estate firms are more likely to take a smaller stake in larger assets when investing abroad. The penchant for large assets holds when controlling for economic activity, real estate investment opportunities, depth and sophistication of the capital markets, investor protection and the legal framework, administrative burdens and regulatory limitations, and the socio-cultural and political environment at both the property nation and headquarter nation levels. In general, foreign ownership is less likely with industrial, office, retail, and self-storage properties. Capital market development is consistently negatively related to foreign investment.     

Asymmetric Risk Measures and Real Estate Returns

Rational investors distinguish between extremely high and extremely low returns. The measures of investment risk should reflect such asymmetric risk perception. This study presents six asymmetric risk metrics and empirically tests their abilities in explaining the cross-sectional variations of real estate returns. It finds strong evidence that systematic downside risk is associated with a risk premium, and skewness provides significant explanatory power to the variation of cross-sectional property returns. On the other hand, co-skewness does not explain real estate returns well and is not a good systematic risk measure.