Multi-asset class mutual funds: Can they time the market? Evidence from the US,UK and Canada

The importance of asset allocation decisions in wealth management is well established. However, given its importance it is perhaps surprising that so little attention has been paid to the question of whether professional fund managers are skilful at timing market movement across asset classes over time. The timing literature has tended to concentrate on the timing skill of single asset class funds. Using data on US, UK and Canadian multi-asset class funds, we apply two alternative methodologies to identify the asset class timing abilities of managers. Overall, whether we apply a returns-based method or a holdings-based testing approach, we find evidence of only a tiny minority of funds with asset class timing ability.     

Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?

Defining systematic risk management (SRM) skill as persistently low fund systematic risk, we find evidence of time varying allocation of hedge fund management effort across the business cycle. In weak market states, skilled managers focus on minimization of systematic risk via dynamic reallocations across asset classes at the cost of fund alpha and foregoing market timing opportunities. As markets strengthen, attention shifts to asset selection within consistent asset classes. The superior performance of low systematic risk funds previously documented arises due to the superior asset selection ability of managers in strong market states. Incremental allocations by investors arise due to this superior performance and not due to recognition of SRM skill.     

Time‐Varying Fund Manager Skill

We propose a new definition of skill as general cognitive ability to pick stocks or time the market. We find evidence for stock picking in booms and market timing in recessions. Moreover, the same fund managers that pick stocks well in expansions also time the market well in recessions. These fund managers significantly outperform other funds and passive benchmarks. Our results suggest a new measure of managerial ability that weighs a fund's market timing more in recessions and stock picking more in booms. The measure displays more persistence than either market timing or stock picking alone and predicts fund performance.     

Portfolio concentration and fund manager performance

This research examines the relationships among portfolio concentration, fund manager skills, and fund performance in Taiwan's equity mutual fund industry, yielding several empirical findings as follows. First, after controlling for other factors, concentrated equity funds tend to have smaller net asset values, larger fund flows, higher turnover rates, and a younger age and prevail in smaller fund families. Second, concentrated fund managers buy and sell stocks more smartly based on economic trends or market factors than do diversified fund managers, i.e., they have better market‐timing abilities. Third, only partial evidence supports the premise that concentrated equity funds have better next‐quarter risk‐adjusted performances than do diversified ones, as these fund managers' skills positively correlate to risk‐adjusted fund performance. Fourth, fund managers who have better stock‐picking abilities and intensively invest in certain industries generally exhibit better Carhart's alpha in the next quarter than do other fund managers. Fifth, fund managers' stock‐picking abilities more closely relate to long‐term performance than do their market‐timing abilities. Lastly, positive performance persistence is much stronger than negative performance persistence, but concentrated funds do not have stronger performance persistence than do diversified funds.     

Gender,style diversity,and their effect on fund performance

This paper examines the performance of 358 European diversified equity mutual funds controlling for gender diversity. Fund performance is evaluated against funds’ designated market indices and representative style portfolios. Consistently with previous studies, proper statistical tests point to the absence of significant differences in performance and risk between female and male managed funds. However, perverse market timing manifests itself mainly in female managed funds and in the left tail of the returns distribution. Interestingly, at fund level there is evidence of significant overperformance that survives even after accounting for funds’ exposure to known risk factors. Employing a quantile regression approach reveals that fund performance is highly dependent on the selection of the specific quantile of the returns distribution; also, style consistency for male and female managers manifests itself across different quantiles. These results have important implications for fund management companies and for retail investors’ asset allocation strategies.     

The investment performance,attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the investment performance of US ethical equity mutual funds relative to the market and their traditional counterparts using a survivorship-bias-free database. We detect selectivity and market timing performance of fund managers using two models. First, we use Treynor and Mazuy’s (Harv Bus Rev 44:131–136, 1966) model to determine these performances from a quadratic regression of fund returns on market returns. Second, we use a comprehensive and integrated model derived by Bhattacharya and Pfleiderer (A note on performance evaluation. Technical Report 714, Stanford, California, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, 1983) and Lee and Rahman (J Bus 63:261–278, 1990) to simultaneously capture stock selection and market timing skill of fund managers. This model extracts timing skill from the relationship between managers’ forecast and realized market return. In addition, the R² approach developed by Amihud and Goyenko (Rev Financ Stud 26:667–694, 2013) for evaluating selectivity is also used in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that ethical funds perform no worse than their traditional counterparts, although ethical and traditional funds do not outperform the market. We find some evidence of superior security selection and/or market timing skill among a very small number of ethical and traditional funds. It appears that matching traditional funds have slightly more abnormal (superior as well as inferior) performance than ethical funds in our sample.     

Timing and selectivity in Portuguese mutual fund performance

We extend the international evidence on timing and selectivity skills of fund managers by applying the Henriksson and Merton [Henriksson, R., Merton, R., 1981. On market timing and investment performance. II. Statistical procedures for evaluating forecasting skills. J. Bus. 54, 513–533] model to Portuguese based mutual funds investing in local, European and International equity.

The results show that managers do not exhibit selectivity and timing abilities, and there is even some evidence of negative timing. Furthermore, we observe a distance effect on stock selection performance, since fund managers that invest locally seem to perform better that those who invest in foreign markets. However, this effect is reverted with respect to market timing skills of fund managers, suggesting that International fund managers are more focused in market timing strategies.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds*

This paper evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds over the eight‐year period from January 1991 to December 1998. Evaluation of both components of investment performance is surprisingly scarce in the Australian literature despite active investment managers engaging in both market timing and security selection. The paper also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated. This paper employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi‐sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. Consistent with U.S. literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill.     

Asset Allocation and Selectivity of Asian Mutual Funds During Financial Crisis

This paper evaluates the ability of US-based Asian mutual fund managers in coping with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We find that the actively managed mutual funds under-perform with respect to the market portfolio by 1.71% in average monthly return. Such poor performance is caused by fund managers' relative weakness in country selection as well as in stock picking. Fund managers are also found to be more skillful in picking the correct market when the market is going up than going down. Our results are consistent with the literature that asset allocation in Asian mutual funds is a dominating factor relative to selectivity in explaining fund returns during the financial crisis. In addition, there exists a negative relation between asset allocation ability and selectivity of fund managers.     

Seasonality in Fund Performance: An Examination of the Portfolio Holdings and Trades of Investment Managers

Abstract:  This study examines the extent to which seasonal variation arises across calendar months in the performance of active Australian equity managers. While it is well documented that there is seasonality in equity market returns, it is unknown whether calendar month variation in managed fund performance exists. Employing a unique database of monthly stock holdings, we find evidence consistent with systematic variation in the risk-adjusted performance of active investment managers over the calendar year. Specifically, we find fund performance is higher in the months when corporate earnings are announced. We also document that the performance of fund managers is lower in the months preceding the tax year-end. Finally, we report evidence that investment manager performance is greater than normal in December, possibly due to both window dressing and the Christmas holiday effect. These findings have important implications for investors attempting to exploit anomalies in fund returns by timing their entry and exit points from active equity funds.     

Benchmarking benchmarks: measuring characteristic selectivity using portfolio holdings data

This study proposes methodological adjustments to the widely adopted performance benchmarking methodology of Daniel et al. (1997 ) as a means of improving the precision of alpha measurement for active equity fund managers. We achieve this by considering the monthly updating of characteristic benchmarks and to ensure neutrality to the Standard & Poor's/Australian Stock Exchange 300 index. Applying this benchmark to a representative sample of active Australian equity funds and simulated passive portfolios that mimic fund manager‐style characteristics, we find statistically different and lower tracking error compared with using the standard characteristic benchmark methodology. We also find evidence that the modified benchmark statistically infers an alpha closer to zero compared with the standard benchmark methodology. Our findings suggest that improved specifications of characteristic benchmarks represent better methods in quantifying fund manager skill.     

The tactical and strategic value of hedge fund strategies: a cointegration approach

This paper analyzes long-term comovements between hedge fund strategies and traditional asset classes using multivariate cointegration methodology. Since cointegrated assets are tied together over the long run, a portfolio consisting of these assets will have lower long-term volatility. Thus, if the presence of cointegration lowers uncertainty, risk-averse investors should prefer assets that are cointegrated. Long-term (passive) investors can benefit from the knowledge of cointegrating relationships, while the built-in error correction mechanism allows active asset managers to anticipate short-run price movements. The empirical results indicate there is a long-run relationship between specific hedge fund strategies and traditional financial assets. Thus, the benefits of different hedge fund strategies are much less than suggested by correlation analysis and portfolio optimization. However, certain strategies combined with specific stock market segments offer portfolio managers adequate diversification potential, especially in the framework of tactical asset allocation.

Derivative use,fund flows and investment manager performance

Prior literature which examines the use of derivatives by investment managers does not discern between different types of derivative trading strategies. This study is the first to examine and gather data on a particular type of derivative trading strategy undertaken by investment managers. We examine the extent to which equity fund managers use index futures to manage fund flows and the effect this has on their alpha and market timing measures of performance. Our results show that funds that do not use derivatives exhibit lower returns and negative market timing skills when they experience fund flow. The performance of funds that use derivatives, however, is independent of investor’s liquidity demands. In fact, the unconditional performance of the average user fund is statistically equivalent to the performance of the average non-user fund conditional on zero fund flow. Our results provide evidence that derivatives can be beneficial for mutual fund holders under certain conditions.     

Market timing: A global endeavor

This paper employs daily fund and index data, the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing model, and two multi-factor extensions to measure the market timing ability of global asset allocation funds. These funds differ from traditional global or international funds in that they face fewer investment constraints and are known to actively shift funds across a wide variety of asset classes. When using the classical Treynor and Mazuy timing models, I find evidence of poor market timing ability. However, this evidence disappears when timing ability is examined using two multi-factor models. The results from Treynor and Mazuy are spurious since both multi-factor extensions do a much better job in explaining the variation in average fund returns.     

Testing the Conventional and Islamic Financial Market Contagion: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

This study is a first attempt at testing the extent of contagion for conventional and Shari’ah-compliant stock indices. We examine the period surrounding the U.S. subprime crisis of 2007–9 and the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008 to determine the relative extent of contagion. We find no clear evidence of contagion during the subprime crisis however, during the Lehman collapse most conventional indices showed contagion. Interestingly, the Shari’ah-compliant indices mostly do not show evidence of contagion. Collectively, our results have important implications for fund managers in terms of asset allocation risk and policymakers seeking an optimal policy response to crises.     

Are hedge funds active market liquidity timers?

This paper investigates liquidity timing behaviour of hedge funds that invest globally in foreign investment assets. We expect these hedge funds to manage currencies exposure differently, depending on the extent they treat them as an asset class. In this paper, we investigate if actively timing foreign exchange (FX) liquidity adds value to hedge funds' investments. Unlike the existing studies where fund managers are assumed to either time or not time the market over the entire study period, we argue that fund managers may strategically choose to be active market liquidity timers based on the market condition at the time. To test this hypothesis, we develop a state-dependent liquidity timing model embedded with a Markov regime switching process and identify changes in the FX liquidity timing behaviour among the Global Derivatives hedge funds over an eighteen-year period. Our findings reveal that such regime changes in timing behaviour are driven by the underlying FX liquidity condition. A further analysis to compare the changes in the timing behaviour over time shows that hedge funds that are active market liquidity timers outperform those that engage in liquidity timing less frequently in all strategies categories.     

Do funds selected by managers’ skills perform better?

We construct a simple intuitive rating mechanism to evaluate stock picking and market timing skills of equity and hybrid equity fund managers in China. We find that both our skill-rated 5-star (SR-5S) fund and the Morningstar 5-star (MS-5S) fund portfolios outperform the market. The SR-5S fund portfolio outperforms its counterpart MS-5S portfolio in most situations, depending on whether portfolio performance is measured by the abnormal returns of the CAPM model, the Fama-French three-factor (FF3) model, the Carhart four-factor (CH4) model and the Fama-French five-factor (FF5) model. Both market timing skill and stock picking skill affect the performance difference between the SR-5S fund and MS-5S fund portfolios. Additionally, the departure of a SR-5S or MS-5S fund manager is associated with fund performance declines, and the declines in performance for SR-5S funds are generally larger than the declines for the MS-5S funds.     

What Style Liquidity Timing Skills Do Mutual Fund Managers Possess?

Recent studies claim that mutual fund managers demonstrate strong MARKET liquidity timing skills. We extend their liquidity timing tests to the four‐factor case and investigate liquidity timing skills with respect to the MARKET, SIZE, VALUE and MOMENTUM factors. Contrary to these claims, we find no evidence that fund managers adjust market exposure in anticipation of market liquidity changes. We find rather strong evidence that fund managers successfully overweight small stocks as market liquidity increases. Our study also demonstrates that it is easy to misidentify SIZE liquidity timing as MARKET liquidity timing in models that focus only on MARKET liquidity timing.     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.