Accrual Accounting,Informational Sufficiency,and Equity Valuation

This paper studies accrual accounting and equity valuation in the context of a firm that makes repeated and overlapping investments in productive capacity. The analysis identifies a particular accrual accounting (depreciation) rule that is termed replacement cost accounting because the book value of existing capacity assets is set equal to the value that such assets would have if a competitive market were to exist for used assets. It is shown that replacement cost accounting aggregates past investment decisions of the firm without a loss of value‐relevant information. The intrinsic value of the firm can then be expressed as a function of current accounting data and certain parameters of the firm’s operating environment. Further, it is shown that replacement cost accounting is essentially the only accounting rule with this informational sufficiency property.     

A fuzzy-based approach to residual income equity valuation

The decision of whether to buy, hold or sell equities depends on whether the current price reflects the stock’s intrinsic or fundamental value. The residual income valuation model expresses this fundamental value as a function of current book value of equity plus the sum of discounted expected residual income. Although past and present income and book value information is readily available to investors, values taken by essential parameters in this model are unknown ex ante, particularly the cost of equity or discount rate and future residual income. Any point estimate of equities’ fundamental value according to the model may therefore conceal considerable variation around the estimate, even in the presence of minor perturbations in the model’s inputs. In this paper, we introduce a fuzzy-based approach which reflects the imprecision inherent in certain parameters in equity valuation. We extend the limited prior fuzzy-based literature on investment analysis by introducing the concept of fuzzy fundamental equity value, initially on an illustrative example. To further demonstrate this fuzzy representation, illustrative financial statement data for individual UK companies are considered, with fuzzy fundamental equity values evaluated over progressive forecast horizons. Our series of illustrative applications (which encompasses the standard crisp approach) make the inherent uncertainty involved in estimating equity value immediately apparent.     

Why does book-to-market value of equity forecast cross-section stock returns?

In this paper, we derive a model of book-to-market value of equity based on the present value model and estimate it using panel data on individual stocks. We explicitly include in the model all the determinants of book-to-market except the firm-specific discount rate, which we capture using fixed individual effects in the panel data model. The model is particularly successful, explaining nearly 90% of the time series and cross-section variation in the ratio of book-to-market value of equity. Moreover, the estimated firm-specific fixed effects are more successful than the most recent book-to-market value of equity in forecasting subsequent returns. This is consistent with an efficient market in which book-to-market is a proxy for risk.     

The degree of internationalization and the value of the firm: theory and evidence

A valuation approach is used to examine the effects of the degree of internationalization on the relation between the market value of a firm’s stock and the book value of equity. Degree of internationalization was measured by both foreign revenues over total revenues and foreign assets over total assets. Results on the “Most International” 100 U.S. firms indicate a consistent and positive relation between each measure of the degree of internationalization and the value of equity.     

Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange

We assess the value relevance of the amounts for identifiable intangible assets and goodwill reported in the financial statements of all non-finance companies listed on the main market of the Portuguese Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. Additionally, we use panel data to explore the impact on value relevance of Portugal’s formal adoption of International Accounting Standards [IAS] and International Financial Reporting Standards [IFRS] in 2005. A distinctive feature of the accounting by our sample companies is that when they adopted IAS 38 and IFRS 3 in 2005, they were no longer required to recognise some intangible assets (such as start-up costs and research expenditures) and were no longer required to amortise goodwill.We find that net earnings, reported goodwill and other intangible assets are highly significantly associated with stock price. However, whereas earnings are related positively to stock prices when Portuguese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) were applied prior to 2005, the value relevance of earnings appears to have declined after the adoption of IAS/IFRS in 2005. Although the change to IAS/IFRS had no impact on the value relevance of identifiable intangibles as a whole, the evidence suggests that there was a positive effect on the value relevance of goodwill. When the subclasses of identifiable intangible assets are considered, we found evidence of an increase in value relevance of goodwill, other intangible assets, and research and development expenditures.     

西方险企投资在金融危机中的整体表现及原因探析

保险资金投资组合整体上受本轮危机冲击不大,其中美国寿险公司通用账户的整体表现最好。其原因有:险资对次贷关联资产风险暴露十分有限且各类安全性指标出淤泥而不染;对受牵连的高风险资产,险资配置股权比例也低且私募股权账面值不受股指下跌拖累;债券方面,风险溢价上升与基准利率下调产生抵消作用,国企债在很多险资企业债中占上风。主要启示包括:险资资产配置要与波动性承受能力相适应,尤其主力资产要坚守传统安全资产、系统重要性资产。     

Estimating the Cost of Equity for Property-Liability Insurance Companies

Due to the highly skewed and heavy‐tailed distributions associated with the insurance claims process, we evaluate the Rubinstein‐Leland (RL) model for its ability to improve the cost of equity estimates of insurance companies because of its distribution‐free feature. Our analyses show that there is as large as a 94‐basis‐point difference in the estimated cost of insurance equity between the RL model and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for the sample of property‐liability insurers with more severe departures from normality. In addition, consistent with our hypotheses, significant differences in the market risk estimates are found for insurers with return distributions that are asymmetrically distributed, and for small insurers. Third, we find significant performance improvements from using the RL model by showing smaller values of excess return of the expected return of the portfolio to the model return for a portfolio of insurers with returns that are more skewed and for a portfolio of small insurers. Finally, our panel data analysis shows the differences in the market risk estimates are significantly influenced by firm size, degree of leverage, and degree of asymmetry. The implication is that insurers should use the RL model rather than the CAPM to estimate its cost of capital if the insurer is small (assets size is less than $2,291 million), and/or its returns are not symmetrical (the value of skewness is greater than 0.509 or less than ?0.509).     

Scale Effects in Capital Markets-Based Accounting Research

Abstract:  Based on data simulated using a modified Ohlson (1995) valuation model, we investigate effects on inferences of five potential scale-related effects: multiplicative and additive omitted scale factors, scale-varying coefficients, survivorship, and heteroscedasticity. We find that diagnostics identified in prior research are not successful in detecting or distinguishing these scale effects. Thus, we investigate the effectiveness at mitigating scale effects of six specifications of regressions of equity market value on equity book value and earnings: undeflated, share-deflated, equity book value-deflated, lagged price-deflated, returns, and equity market value-deflated. For each specification, we compare frequency of correct rejection that the coefficients equal zero, coefficient bias and absolute error, and regression explanatory power. We find that share-deflated and undeflated specifications generally perform the best, regardless of the type of scale effect.     

Labor cost voluntary disclosures and firm equity values: Is human capital information value-relevant?

This study examines the market value relevance of labor cost voluntary disclosures using a valuation model relating firm market values to book values of equity and to disclosed human capital information, such as labor costs, net pension liabilities (NPLs), and estimated average and marginal labor productivity and efficiency indicators. Results indicate that labor cost disclosing companies command higher equity market values in general, and that labor productivity and efficiency measures appear to be undervalued. Both findings suggest that there might be market opportunities for firms with valuable human capital to differentiate themselves from their industry peers, which might encourage further human capital disclosure in the future. More refined measures of human capital assets and investments are needed to assess firms’ human resource management decisions and performance impacts in the capital markets more adequately.     

The Value Relevance of Network Advantages: The Case of E–Commerce Firms

We show that network advantages constitute an important intangible asset that goes unrecognized in the financial statements. For a sample of e–commerce firms, we find that network advantages created by Web site traffic have substantial explanatory power for stock prices over and above traditional summary accounting measures such as earnings and book value of equity. Also, network advantages are positively associated with one–year–ahead and two–year–ahead earnings forecasts provided by equity analysts. When we allow network advantages to be endogenously determined by managerial actions, we find that at least part of the value relevance of network effects stems from the presence of affiliate referral programs and higher media visibility.     

Tangibility and investment irreversibility in asset pricing

Zhang (2005) and Cooper (2006) provide a theoretical risk‐based explanation for the value premium by suggesting a nexus between firms’ book‐to‐market ratio and investment irreversibility. They argue that unproductive physical capacity is costly in contracting conditions but provides growth opportunities during economic expansions, resulting in covariant risk between firms’ investment in tangible assets and market‐wide returns. This article uses the Australian accounting environment to empirically test this theory – a test that is not possible using US data. Consistent with the theoretical argument, tangibility is priced in equity returns, and augmenting the Fama and French three‐factor model with a tangibility factor increases model explanatory power.     

Dynamic Models of Investment Distortions

This paper studies the interaction between corporate financing decisions and investment decisions in a dynamic framework. When the production decision involves an expansion option, the firm trades off tax benefits of debt against two costs of debt financing, namely the investment distortion related to exercise of the expansion option and the loss of a valuable expansion opportunity if the firm defaults. The optimal capital structure is all equity for firms with more value in growth options (or intangible assets) and tends to involve debt financing for firms with more value in tangible assets. JEL Classification: D81, G13, G31, G32     

Should More Internally Generated Intangible Assets Be Recognized? A Commentary

This study analyzes whether financial statements should recognize more internally generated intangible assets with particular reference to China. This issue is significant because of the increasing importance of the ‘new economy’ and R&D investment, including in China. We present the current accounting requirements for intangible assets and illustrate that the failure to recognize internally generated intangible assets leads to a high ratio of unrecognized value to market capitalization, known as the asset light phenomenon among firms. We discuss and compare international and Chinese views supporting and opposing the recognition of more internally generated intangible assets. We identify and analyze the major issues in general, and in China particularly, that standard setters and their stakeholders have to consider if more internally generated intangible assets are recognized. We focus on areas of recognition, initial and subsequent measurement, and user reaction. We find that the most critical issues are the separability and measurability of internally generated intangible assets. Based on the issues identified, we discuss initiatives on non-financial disclosure in relation to unrecognized intangible assets and firms’ value creation. The study elucidates the consequences of current accounting standards on internally generated intangible assets and, by identifying the critical issues, contributes to the debate on whether it is best to adopt recognition of internally generated intangible assets or a disclosure-only approach.     

Two Different Ways of Treating Corporate Cash in FCF Valuations—and the Importance of Getting the Cost of Capital Right

The methods for calculating free cash flow presented in texts on financial statement analysis and valuation appear to be very different from those in corporate finance texts, causing some confusion among academics as well as practitioners. Financial statement analysis and valuation texts generally begin by valuing just the enterprise operations—that is, the entity that engages in the firm's primary revenue‐generating activities—and then adding back the value of its cash holdings and other financial assets. The corporate finance approach is typically to value all the assets together, including financial assets that are not used in the production of the goods and services provided by the firm. Using a simple example, the authors show that the valuation of the equity ownership of the firm should be the same for both methods of calculating free cash flow, provided the analyst makes the appropriate adjustments to the method for calculating the cost of capital (WACC) used to discount forecasted free cash flows to a present value.     

Accounting rules,equity valuation,and growth options

In a model with irreversible capacity investments, we show that financial statements prepared under replacement cost accounting provide investors with sufficient information for equity valuation purposes. Under alternative accounting rules, including historical cost and value in use accounting, investors will generally not be able to value precisely a firm’s growth options and therefore its equity. For these accounting rules, we describe the range of valuations that is consistent with the firm’s financial statements. We further show that replacement cost accounting preserves all value-relevant information if the firm’s investments are reversible. However, the directional relation between the value of the firm’s equity and the replacement cost of its assets is different from that in the setting with irreversible investments.     

A Fundamental Analysis Approach to Oil and Gas Firm Valuation

Most fundamental analysis studies have focused on fundamentals selected by a data-driven approach on large samples of firms from numerous industries. This paper reports the results of a fundamental analysis of a single industry, the US oil and gas exploration and production industry, using variables identified by industry financial analysts. The results demonstrate a significant relationship between a number of the fundamentals with both the market value of equity and cumulative stock return. The results also suggest that the fundamentals provide incremental information beyond earnings, change in earnings, and book value of equity when explaining equity values and stock returns.     

How do firms finance their investments?: The relative importance of equity issuance and debt contracting costs

This paper examines the financing decisions of firms in response to changes in investments and profits. We find that information frictions play important roles in firms' financing decisions. However, we find no evidence that asymmetric information about the value of a firm's assets causes equity to be used only as a last resort. Indeed equity is the predominant source of finance in situations, such as profit shortfalls, investment in intangible assets, and internally generated growth opportunities, where informational asymmetries and agency costs are likely to be high. We also find that firms respond asymmetrically to positive and negative profit shocks. In financing fixed assets, high asymmetric information firms use more short-term debt and less long-term debt, whereas firms with high potential agency problems use significantly more equity and less long-term debt and cash.     

An Aggregation Theorem for the Valuation of Equity Under Linear Information Dynamics

We state an Aggregation Theorem which shows that the recursion value of equity is functionally proportional to its adaptation value. Since the recursion value of equity is equal to its book value plus the expected present value of its abnormal earnings, it follows that the adaptation value of equity can normally be determined by a process of simple quadrature. We demonstrate the application of the Aggregation Theorem using two stochastic processes. The first uses the linear information dynamics of the Ohlson (1995) model. The second uses linear information dynamics based on the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985)'square root' process. Both these processes lead to closed form expressions for the adaptation and overall market value of equity. There are, however, many other processes which are compatible with the Aggregation Theorem. These all show that the market value of equity will be a highly convex function of its recursion value. The empirical evidence we report for UK companies largely supports the convexity hypothesis.     

Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment

We develop a method for simultaneously estimating the cost of equity capital and the growth in residual earnings that are implied by current stock prices, current book value of equity, and short-term forecasts of accounting earnings. We demonstrate the use of our method by calculating the expected equity risk premium. Our estimate is higher than estimates in extant studies that are based on the same earnings forecast data. The main difference between our study and these papers is that while they provide arguments supporting an assumed rate of growth beyond the forecast horizon, we estimate this rate.