An Empirical Comparison of Asset-Pricing Models in the Shanghai A-Share Exchange Market

This paper evaluates and compares the performance of three-asset pricing models—the capital asset pricing model of Sharpe (J Finance 19:425–442, 1964), the three-factor model of Fama and French (J Financ Econ 33:3–56, 1993), and the five-factor model (Fama and French in J Financ Econ 123:1–22, 2015)—in the Shanghai A-share exchange market. Our results do not support the superiority of the five-factor model and show that the three-factor model outperforms the other models. We also verify the redundancy of the book-to-market factor and confirm the findings of Fama and French (2015).     

The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations

The main objective of this study is to distinguish whether the forecast dispersion anomaly is due to Miller’s (J Finance 32(4):1151–1168, 1977) overpricing hypothesis or idiosyncratic risk, by conditioning the sample on “buy” and “sell” consensus recommendations. Observations on the long and short possibilities provided to the investors by the analyst stock recommendations can help us infer on the impact of short sale constraints even though they are not directly observed. This study provides strong evidence that the impact of analyst forecast dispersion is more pronounced in the group of stocks that receive the least favorable recommendations in a given period, even after controlling for the idiosyncratic risk, Fama–French factors (J Financ Econ 33(1):3–56, 1993; J Financ Econ 116(1):1–22, 2015) and even short-sale constraints. These results are consistent with Miller’s (1977) hypothesis, according to which if short-sale constraints bind, high opinion divergence stocks become overpriced and hence have low subsequent returns.     

A BSDE approach to fair bilateral pricing under endogenous collateralization

Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) examined fair bilateral pricing in models with funding costs and an exogenously given collateral. The main goal of this work is to extend results from Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) to the case of an endogenous margin account depending on the contract’s value for the hedger and/or the counterparty. Comparison theorems for BSDEs from Nie and Rutkowski (Theory Probab. Appl., 2016, forthcoming) are used to derive bounds for unilateral prices and to study the range for fair bilateral prices in a general semimartingale model. The backward stochastic viability property, introduced by Buckdahn et al. (Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 116:485–504, 2000), is employed to examine the bounds for fair bilateral prices for European claims with a negotiated collateral in a diffusion-type model. We also generalize in several respects the option pricing results from Bergman (Rev. Financ. Stud. 8:475–500, 1995), Mercurio (Actuarial Sciences and Quantitative Finance, pp. 65–95, 2015) and Piterbarg (Risk 23(2):97–102, 2010) by considering contracts with cash-flow streams and allowing for idiosyncratic funding costs for risky assets.     

Tukey’s transformational ladder for portfolio management

Over the past half-century, the empirical finance community has produced vast literature on the advantages of the equally weighted Standard and Poor (S&P 500) portfolio as well as the often overlooked disadvantages of the market capitalization weighted S&P 500’s portfolio (see Bloomfield et al. in J Financ Econ 5:201–218, 1977; DeMiguel et al. in Rev Financ Stud 22(5):1915–1953, 2009; Jacobs et al. in J Financ Mark 19:62–85, 2014; Treynor in Financ Anal J 61(5):65–69, 2005). However, portfolio allocation based on Tukey’s transformational ladder has, rather surprisingly, remained absent from the literature. In this work, we consider the S&P 500 portfolio over the 1958–2015 time horizon weighted by Tukey’s transformational ladder (Tukey in Exploratory data analysis, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1977): \(1/x^2,\,\, 1/x,\,\, 1/\sqrt{x},\,\, \text {log}(x),\,\, \sqrt{x},\,\, x,\,\, \text {and} \,\, x^2\), where x is defined as the market capitalization weighted S&P 500 portfolio. Accounting for dividends and transaction fees, we find that the 1/\(x^2\) weighting strategy produces cumulative returns that significantly dominate all other portfolio returns, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 18% over the 1958–2015 horizon. Our story is furthered by a startling phenomenon: both the cumulative and annual returns of the \(1/x^2\) weighting strategy are superior to those of the 1 / x weighting strategy, which are in turn superior to those of the \(1/\sqrt{x}\) weighted portfolio, and so forth, ending with the \(x^2\) transformation, whose cumulative returns are the lowest of the seven transformations of Tukey’s transformational ladder. The order of cumulative returns precisely follows that of Tukey’s transformational ladder. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover this phenomenon.     

Business cycles,financial cycles and capital structure

We perform peridogram based cycle analysis of firm capital structure and find evidence that firms’ leverage is both persistent and cyclical. The cyclicality of leverage is supported by the trade-off, pecking order and market timing capital structure theories (Korajczyk and Levy in J Financ Econ 68:75–109, 2003; Bhamra et al. in Rev Financ Stud 23:645–703, 2010). Although market timing theory research supports persistence, previous literature dictates that the trade-off and pecking order theories may predict either persistent or mean reverting leverage. Our tests reject mean reversion in favor of persistent and cyclical leverage. We corroborate pecking order theory literature that predicts leverage is persistent. In these models, when firms’ investment spending is below earnings, leverage decreases. In addition, we examine whether firms change their capital structure as a result of business and financial cycles. Since financial cycles last longer than business cycles, financial cycles should have a long term effect on leverage. Our findings confirm the persistent leverage business cycle models that suggest firms change their capital structure due to financial and credit cycles (Jermann and Quadrini in Am Econ Rev 102:238–271, 2012; Azariadis et al. in Rev Econ Stud 83:1364–1405, 2016). We conclude that leverage is persistent due to the cyclicality of the financing decision.     

Local risk-minimization for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models

We obtain explicit representations of locally risk-minimizing strategies for call and put options in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, which are Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-type stochastic volatility models. Using Malliavin calculus for Lévy processes, Arai and Suzuki (Int. J. Financ. Eng. 2:1550015, 2015) obtained a formula for locally risk-minimizing strategies for Lévy markets under many additional conditions. Supposing mild conditions, we make sure that the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models satisfy all the conditions imposed in (Arai and Suzuki in Int. J. Financ. Eng. 2:1550015, 2015). Among others, we investigate the Malliavin differentiability of the density of the minimal martingale measure. Moreover, we introduce some numerical experiments for locally risk-minimizing strategies.     

A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices

The number of factors driving the uncertain dynamics of commodity prices has been a central consideration in financial literature. While the majority of empirical studies relies on the assumption that up to three factors are sufficient to explain all relevant uncertainty inherent in commodity spot, futures, and option prices, evidence from Trolle and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 22(11):4423–4461, 2009b) and Hughen (J Futures Mark 30(2):101–133, 2010) indicates a need for additional risk factors. In this article, we propose a four-factor maximal affine stochastic volatility model that allows for three independent sources of risk in the futures term structure and an additional, potentially unspanned stochastic volatility process. The model principally integrates the insights from Hughen (2010) and Tang (Quant Finance 12(5):781–790, 2012) and nests many well-known models in the literature. It can account for several stylized facts associated with commodity dynamics such as mean reversion to a stochastic level, stochastic volatility in the convenience yield, a time-varying correlation structure, and time-varying risk-premia. In-sample and out-of-sample tests indicate a superior model fit to futures and options data as well as lower hedging errors compared to three-factor benchmark models. The results also indicate that three factors are not sufficient to model the joint dynamics of futures and option prices accurately.     

Option listing: market quality revisited

We test for changes in liquidity around LEAPS option introduction and find two results that address important disputes in the literature. First, we find that the impact of LEAPS upon share liquidity does not occur until 23 days after the LEAPS are introduced. Our findings are in conflict with Danielsen et al.’s (J Financ Quant Anal 42:1041–1062, 2007) findings that liquidity improves before option introduction, and are consistent with the findings of Kumar et al. (J Finance 53:717–732, 1998). Second, we find that share volume increases before option introduction and so the volume increase can be predictive of option listing, but the shift in volume does not occur early enough to drive the exchange’s introduction decision.     

The pricing of common exchange rate factors in the U.S. equity market

We extend Lustig et al. (Rev Financ Stud 24:3731–3777, 2011) and Brusa et al. (The International CAPM Redux, 2014) by examining if the common exchange rate factors, the dollar and carry factors, are priced in the US equity market. Our results suggest that while the carry factor has incremental pricing information relative to the US market factor, the dollar factor (or the trade-weighted exchange rate index) is redundant. Our results have important theoretical as well as practical implications. Theoretically, we suggest that financial economists take an endogenous perspective of exchange rates. Practically, we suggest that practitioners incorporate in the carry factor to measure the exposure of exchange rate risk.     

Identity Theft and Consumer Payment Choice: Does Security Really Matter?

In their paper “Spectral Risk Measures: Properties and Limitations”, Dowd et al. (J Financ Serv Res 341:61–75, 2008) introduce exponential and power spectral risk measures as subclasses of spectral risk measures (SRMs) to the literature, and claim that they are subject to three serious limitations: First, for these subclasses, the spectral risk may be counterintuitively decreasing when the user’s risk aversion is increasing. Second, these subclasses, and power SRMs in particular, become completely insensitive to market volatility when the respective parameters of risk aversion tend to their lower and upper boundaries. Third, exponential SRMs exhibit constant absolute risk aversion, while constant relative risk aversion better meets the empirical evidence. Consequently, “users of spectral risk measures must be careful to select utility functions that fit the features of the particular problems they are dealing with, and should be especially careful when using power SRMs.” (p. 61). In this comment, we show that the findings of Dowd et al. (J Financ Serv Res 341:61–75, 2008) suffer from misinterpretations and wrong conclusions.     

The impact of executive inside debt on sell-side financial analyst forecast characteristics

Debt-like compensation, referred to as inside debt, is prevalent in US firms and affects firm operating, investing and financial reporting activities. The amount of inside debt can be used to extract information that benefits analyst forecasting activities. This study finds that forecast accuracy increases, while forecast dispersion and revision volatility decrease with the magnitude of inside debt. Further analysis shows that inside debt is associated with increased propensity of firms to provide voluntary disclosures and the documented benefits on analyst characteristics accrue only to firms that offer close to optimal level of inside debt (Jensen and Meckling in J Financ Econ 3:305–360, 1976; Edmans and Liu in Rev Finance 15:75–102, 2011). Our research is the first to link debt-like compensation to financial analyst behavior and contributes to the understanding of the implications of inside debt to outside market participants.     

Service quality in the private banking business

This paper examines the concept of service quality in private banking theoretically and empirically and identifies factors which contribute to service quality. A multidimensional and hierarchical model is developed based on the work of Rust and Oliver (in Service Quality, pp. 1–20, 1994) and Brady and Cronin (in J. Mark. 65(3):34–49, 2001). The model is then empirically tested among private banking providers with the partial least squares method. Furthermore, the developed model is compared to other approaches, including Grönroos (in Eur. J. Mark. 18(4):36–44, 1984). Another model for comparison excludes the indirect effects of Grönroos (in Eur. J. Mark. 18(4):36–44, 1984) and focuses on the direct effects on service quality. We can conclude that the model based on Rust and Oliver (in Service Quality, pp. 1–20, 1994) and Brady and Cronin (in J. Mark. 65(3):34–49, 2001) produces the best results and can best explain service quality in private banking. Finally, an analysis of various provider groups is conducted in order to identify differences between private banking providers in Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein and between providers with various minimum investment requirements.     

Product market competition and cost stickiness

Extant literature on cost stickiness has focused on how firm-specific characteristics affect the asymmetric cost behavior. In this paper, we explore how a firm’s operating environment affects the firm’s cost stickiness. Specifically, we examine the effect of product market competition on cost stickiness since a firm’s investment and cost retention decisions partly depend on how the firm interacts with its rival firms in the product markets. Using two firm-level text-based product market competition measures extracted from management disclosures in firms’ 10-K filings (Li et al. in J Account Res 51(2):399–436, 2013; Hoberg and Phillips in Rev Financ Stud 23(10):3773–3811, 2010; J Polit Econ, 2015), we find strong evidence consistent with cost asymmetry increasing in competition after controlling for known economic determinants of cost stickiness. In additional analyses, we also find that the effect of product market competition on the degree of cost stickiness increases in firms’ financial strength, likely because management in financially stronger firms has more resources for investment expenditures in spite of a sales fall. We also find that cost stickiness is increasing in competition if management is optimistic about future demand, whereas competition is not associated with cost asymmetry if management is pessimistic about future demand. Finally, we find that the relationship between competition and cost stickiness, although statistically insignificant at conventional levels, is more pronounced for single-segment firms relative to multi-segment firms.     

The investment performance,attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the investment performance of US ethical equity mutual funds relative to the market and their traditional counterparts using a survivorship-bias-free database. We detect selectivity and market timing performance of fund managers using two models. First, we use Treynor and Mazuy’s (Harv Bus Rev 44:131–136, 1966) model to determine these performances from a quadratic regression of fund returns on market returns. Second, we use a comprehensive and integrated model derived by Bhattacharya and Pfleiderer (A note on performance evaluation. Technical Report 714, Stanford, California, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, 1983) and Lee and Rahman (J Bus 63:261–278, 1990) to simultaneously capture stock selection and market timing skill of fund managers. This model extracts timing skill from the relationship between managers’ forecast and realized market return. In addition, the R² approach developed by Amihud and Goyenko (Rev Financ Stud 26:667–694, 2013) for evaluating selectivity is also used in this paper. Our empirical results indicate that ethical funds perform no worse than their traditional counterparts, although ethical and traditional funds do not outperform the market. We find some evidence of superior security selection and/or market timing skill among a very small number of ethical and traditional funds. It appears that matching traditional funds have slightly more abnormal (superior as well as inferior) performance than ethical funds in our sample.     

Reexamining momentum profits: Underreaction or overreaction to firm-specific information?

We design a new measure and find that the predictability of past returns on future returns increases as stocks respond with delay to firm-specific information. Our results suggest that momentum is caused by both investors’ underreaction and overreaction to information. However, underreaction to information seems to be the primary cause, particularly during the more recent period. Our findings are robust for recent explanations of momentum profits and alternative methods for computing our measure. We also find that stocks respond with delay to firm-specific information, partly due to certain firm characteristics, and partly because they escape investor attention due to their low visibility. Our paper extends and refines Jegadeesh and Titman’s (J Financ 56(2):699–720, 2001) finding that momentum profits are consistent with behavioral models’ predictions regarding investors’ overreaction.     

International asset allocation using the market implied cost of capital

The Black and Litterman (Financ Anal J 48(5):28–43, 1992) (BL) approach to portfolio optimization requires investor views on expected asset returns as an input. I demonstrate that the market implied cost of capital (ICC) is ideal for quantifying those views on a country level. I benchmark this approach against a BL optimization using time-series models as investor views, the equally weighted portfolio, and allocation methods based on stock market capitalization and GDP. I find that the ICC portfolio offers an increase in average return of 2.1 percentage points (yearly) as compared to the value-weighted portfolio, while having a similar standard deviation. The resulting difference in Sharpe ratios is statistically significant and robust to the inclusion of transaction costs, varying BL parameters, and a less strictly defined investment universe.     

Pricing currency options under double exponential jump diffusion in a Markov-modulated HJM economy

Extending the framework of Amin and Jarrow (J Int Money Financ 10:310–329, 1991) and Bo et al. (Insur Math Econ 46:461–469, 2010), this study provides a theoretical exploration of currency options pricing under the presence of interest-rate regime shifts and exchange-rate asymmetric jumps. Evidence of interest-rate regime shifts inferred from UK and US zero coupon bond yields provides support for the regime-switching specifications which we reflect upon the domestic and foreign forward rates. Results of statistical tests conducted on JPY/USD and EUR/USD FX rates provide further support the rationale behind using a double exponential jump diffusion process within a Markov modulated Heath–Jarrow–Morton economy. Our numerical results suggest that, the pricing performance of our model is closely comparable to the Bo-Wang-Yang model for at-the-money options, yet yields improvements in percentage root mean errors for in-the-money options.     

Aggregate idiosyncratic volatility,dynamic aspects of loss aversion,and narrow framing

We consider the economy in which an agent faces, in addition to market risk, an additive independent background risk in consumption. In contrast to the Lucas (Econometrica 46:1429–1445, 1978) complete consumption insurance model, under plausible assumptions about the unconditional mean and variance of the agent’s subjective distribution of background risk the model with the additive independent background risk fits the historical average excess return on the US stock market with the coefficient of relative risk aversion (RRA) below five for the subsets of households designated as assetholders. The greater the size and/or the lower the expected value of background risk, the lower (compared to the Lucas (Econometrica 46:1429–1445, 1978) model) the value of the RRA coefficient needed for the model with background risk to match the historical average equity premium. Allowing for an extremely unlike large decrease in the agent’s consumption considerably decreases the required coefficient of RRA. It is concluded that the presence of the additive independent background risk in the consumption of assetholders can account for nearly 60 % of the historical average equity premium, hence rationalizing the equity premium puzzle of Mehra and Prescott (J Monet Econ 15:145–162, 1985). With RRA below five, the model with background risk is consistent with the historical average real interest rate if the agent has the subjective time discount factor lower than, but close to, 1. The findings are robust to the assumed type of background risk, the proxy for the market portfolio, and the threshold value in the definition of assetholders.     

The skewness risk premium in equilibrium and stock return predictability

In this study, we investigate the skewness risk premium in the financial market under a general equilibrium setting. Extending the long-run risks (LRR) model proposed by Bansal and Yaron (J Financ 59:1481–1509, 2004) by introducing a stochastic jump intensity for jumps in the LRR factor and the variance of consumption growth rate, we provide an explicit representation for the skewness risk premium, as well as the volatility risk premium, in equilibrium. On the basis of the representation for the skewness risk premium, we propose a possible reason for the empirical facts of time-varying and negative risk-neutral skewness. Moreover, we also provide an equity risk premium representation of a linear factor pricing model with the variance and skewness risk premiums. The empirical results imply that the skewness risk premium, as well as the variance risk premium, has superior predictive power for future aggregate stock market index returns, which are consistent with the theoretical implication derived by our model. Compared with the variance risk premium, the results show that the skewness risk premium plays an independent and essential role for predicting the market index returns.