Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach

This paper examines the linkages between the emerging stock markets in Warsaw and Budapest and the established markets in Frankfurt and the U.S. By using a four-variable asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we find evidence of returns and volatility spillovers from the developed to the emerging markets. However, as the estimated time-varying conditional covariances and the variance decompositions indicate limited interactions among the markets, the emerging markets are weakly linked to the developed markets. The implication is that foreign investors may benefit from the reduction of risk by adding the stocks in the emerging markets to their investment portfolio.     

Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?

We use a residual income valuation framework to compare equity valuation implications of four approaches to employee stock options (ESOs) accounting: APB 25 “recognize nothing”, SFAS 123 (revised) “recognize ESO expense”, FASB Exposure Draft “recognize and expense ESO asset” and “recognize ESO asset and liability”. Theoretical analysis shows only grant date recognition of an asset and liability, and subsequent marking-to-market of the liability, results in accounting numbers that capture the dilution effects of ESOs on current shareholder value. Out-of-sample equity market value prediction tests and in-sample comparisons of model explanatory power also support the “recognize ESO asset and liability” method.     

股市超涨内因分析

中国证券市场超涨和超跌的体制根源在于政府的行政管制,在于企业“资本自主权”的缺失。“资本自主权”的缺失导致企业缺乏资本的自我调节能力,进而导致资本市场自我调节能力的丧失。     

股票市场与经济增长为何异动

作为国民经济晴雨表的股票市场与我国经济增长之间似乎关联并不大,这种股市走势与经济走势异动的原因何在     

Predictive models for disaggregate stock market volatility

This paper incorporates macroeconomic determinants into the forecasting model of industry-level stock return volatility in order to detect whether different macroeconomic factors can forecast the volatility of various industries. To explain different fluctuation characteristics among industries, we identified a set of macroeconomic determinants to examine their effects. The Clark and West (J Econom 138(1):291–311, 2007) test is employed to verify whether the new forecasting models, which vary among industries based on the in-sample results, make better predictions than the two benchmark models. Our results show that default return and default yield have a significant impact on stock return volatility.     

股市“活水”不节流

即使不重启IPO,大量的资金肯定还是会进入股市。因此,加大IPO规模,为股市吸引“活水”,不失为一种更积极主动的做法。     

中国股票市场股利政策(英文)

本文解释了鼓励政策的定义和现今中国企业通常使用的股利政策方法。文中将对中国与西方的股利政策的异同进行对比,同时分析了具有中国特色股利政策形成的原因,并且提出了一些改善现状的意见和建议。     

中国股票市场股利政策

本文解释了鼓励政策的定义和现今中国企业通常使用的股利政策方法.文中将对中国与西方的股利政策的异同进行对比,同时分析了具有中国特色股利政策形成的原因,并且提出了一些改善现状的意见和建议.     

Economically significant stock market forecasts

It has been known for some time that a small, but statistically significant portion of the monthly variation in excess returns on the S&P 500-stock index is predictable using ex ante information. This paper presents a model whose out-of-sample forecasts have economic significance. Specifically, a switching rule conditioned on out-of-sample forecasts of stock excess returns, produces investment outcomes that mean-variance dominate the buy-and-hold. The switching strategy yields superior risk-adjusted returns as judged by the composite performance measures of Treynor, Sharpe, and Jensen.     

Revisiting stock market index correlations

Comovement of stock market indices increases during volatile periods, and does not come down when the turmoil settles down. This paper explains formation of persistent comovements during high volatility periods with theories from Bayesian learning. My main conclusion is that the correlation that is formed during the high volatility period is persistent because it is learned during the turmoil. The belief that interdependence between markets are high during the volatile period turns into reality by correlated actions of traders in different markets avoiding correlation to fall to its previous level.     

The stock market and investment

Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power forU.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and evenin the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramaticallyout-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equitycomponent of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock marketvalue. Although the stock market did not predict accuratelyafter the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statisticallysignificant. Parallel relationship for Canada raise the puzzlethat Canadian investment appears to react more to the U.S. stockmarket than to the Canadian market.     

A second-order stock market model

A first-order model for a stock market assigns to each stock a return parameter and a variance parameter that depend only on the rank of the stock. A second-order model assigns these parameters based on both the rank and the name of the stock. First- and second-order models exhibit stability properties that make them appropriate as a backdrop for the analysis of the idiosyncratic behavior of individual stocks. Methods for the estimation of the parameters of second-order models are developed in this paper.     

Afraid of the stock market

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study demonstrates the way investors psychological traits influence their financial behaviors in the stock market. Results from the Health and...     

Overreaction in the Hong Kong stock market

Overreaction reported in the equity markets of the United States, Spain, and Brazil is also observed in the Hong Kong stock market. The “loser” portfolios of the 33 stocks in the Hang Seng Index (HSI), on average, outperform the “winner” portfolios by 9.9% 1 year after the formation periods. Besides its emphasis on the importance of the Hong Kong market in international investment, this paper is unique in some special features related to the overreaction study. Hong Kong has markets for index futures and stock futures. Only three stocks are used in the portfolios. All the stocks in the HSI have large market capitalization and liquidity and can be shorted with no up-tick rule. Unlike other studies in international stock markets, the “arbitrage” portfolio of buying the loser portfolio and shorting the winner portfolio can actually be formed with minimum cost and easy execution, which makes the overreaction phenomena in this study very powerful.     

Information-based trade in the Shanghai stock market

We show that the probability of information-based trade (PIN) played a significant role in explaining monthly returns on Shanghai A shares over the period 2001 to 2006. In particular, PIN, as approximated by order imbalance as a proportion of total transactions, appears to explain returns even after controlling for risk in the much-cited Fama and French [Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (1992). The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, XLVII, 427–465.] three-factor model. However, we also find that some of the PIN effect appears to be indistinguishable from a turnover effect.     

Discussion of “Which approach to accounting for employee stock options best reflects market pricing?”

The objective of the Landsman, Peasnel, Pope and Yeah paper (in this issue) is to compare, for current shareholders, the value relevance of four methods of accounting for employee stock options (ESOs). My discussion provides a unifying framework for the theoretical analyses and the link between the theoretical analyses and the empirical investigation.     

股市改革中的媒体喧嚣

股市的舆论环境从来就没有安静过,股改中试犹如在本不平静的水面上投下重磅炸弹,激起惊涛骇浪     

股市动态弱式有效性研究——基于滚动广义谱方法

本文采取Hong and Lee(2005)的广义谱方法,对沪深两市的大盘指数进行检验。为适合转轨经济体的新兴市场特点,结合了滚动技术,动态的检验股市有效性的变化,并比较在不同时间窗宽下的滚动检验结果。研究表明,股市自建立初期经历重大动荡后,市场有效性的显著性逐渐增加,金融危机前,市场有效性的显著性降低,金融危机后,市场有效性又开始上升。同时,如果取较短的时间窗宽,市场在大部分时间段内弱式有效,随着样本时间窗口长度的增加,市场趋于拒绝弱式有效性。     

如何看待中国股市前景

我第一次来中国是2003年,之前很关注欧洲的市场.我的基金主要投资英国的证券.从2004年开始,我们把一部分资金转到中国市场,但投资的数额很少,只有几百万美元.以后到中国来,跟中国的企业进行接触,并开始管理资金.我来过中国几次,中国的发展日新月异,我想在结束投资生涯之前,要运作一支专门做中国市场投资的基金.如果能够做到这点,等我退休时会感到欣慰.现在我在香港管理一支纯中国市场基金.     

Spatial modeling of stock market comovements

We model the complex global dependencies in international financial markets using spatial techniques. Our methodology allows us to go beyond conventional correlation analyses and volatility-spillover models confined to studying pairwise relationships, and improves the accuracy of return predictions. We find that stock market comovements are unrelated to geographical proximity, and that financial linkages, as measured by foreign direct investment (FDI) ties, are important in accounting for markets comovements. Our results suggest that the proposed measure of financial distance, coupled with spatial methodology, captures fairly accurately the dependencies in the world financial markets, providing important implications for policymaking and portfolio management.