次贷危机期间国际资本市场传染效应研究

本文分析了九个国家(地区)的资本市场指数在次贷危机期间的传染效应。研究发现,危机前,美国对除中国外的7国(地区)在危机发生时冲击力更大,资本市场出现单向传染效应。在金融全球化背景下,由于国际金融危机交叉传染的存在,通过脉冲响应函数的检验揭示了危机传染的动态效应。在危机期内,美国次贷危机对其他国家市场的影响强度迅速增大,持续时间比传统过程相对延长。本文还通过高低波动率机制的比例系数伽玛检测了这些国家(地区)资本市场间的转移传染和纯传染效应。     

美国次贷危机回顾及其对中国的影响与启示

自美国发生次级贷款危机以来,全球经济在次贷危机的影响下,接连出现几次大幅波动,多国经济发生重大变故.本文通过对美国次贷危机事件的回顾,分析美国次贷危机对中国房地产行业的影响,并根据一些实际问题提出建议,以防范类似次贷危机事件在中国发生.     

金融危机对证券市场波动溢出的影响研究

不同证券市场之间的波动存在时变、非对称、非线性相关的特性,尤其是在极端事件影响下,证券市场之间往往会表现出尾部相关的特性。以次贷危机为背景,利用时变Copula模型研究了证券市场间的波动溢出。结果发现无论是金融安全时期还是金融危机时期,均存在美国证券市场对中国证券市场的波动溢出,并且在金融危机期间这种波动溢出效应有增强的趋势。     

次贷危机对于我国经济状况的影响分析

次贷危机的爆发不仅仅对于美国金融衍生品市场是一个冲击,其引发的蝴蝶效应波及到了整个美国实体经济,从而传导到了世界的各个角落,包括中国。本文从人民币汇率的不断升值为切入点,重在分析美国次贷危机的历程及对中国经济的影响,通过对于中国通货膨胀、外贸企业的运营模式及证券市场的资产流动分析,提出应对次贷危机的基本对策以及在后次贷危机时代如何使中国经济进入一个良性循环的状态。     

次贷危机对于我国经济状况的影响分析

次贷危机的爆发不仅仅对于美国金融衍生品市场是一个冲击,其引发的蝴蝶效应波及到了整个美国实体经济,从而传导到了世界的各个角落,包括中国。本文从人民币汇率的不断升值为切入点,重在分析美国次贷危机的历程及对中国经济的影响,通过对于中国通货膨胀、外贸企业的运营模式及证券市场的资产流动分析,提出应对次贷危机的基本对策以及在后次贷危机时代如何使中国经济进入一个良性循环的状态。     

美国次贷危机回顾及其对中国的影响与启示

自美国发生次级贷款危机以来，全球经济在次贷危机的影响下，接连出现几次大幅波动，多国经济发生重大变故。本文通过对美国次贷危机事件的回顾，分析美国次贷危机对中国房地产行业的影响，并根据一些实际问题提出建议，以防范类似次贷危机事件在中国发生。     

金融危机传染渠道及我国应对危机的对策探讨

美国次贷危机引发的金融危机正在影响世界经济的发展，金融危机所表现出来的快速传染性和破坏性，使得进一步研究金融危机传染渠道具有重要的现实意义。目前美国次贷危机主要是通过实体经济渠道、金融市场（虚拟经济）渠道和心理预期渠道对我国进行传染。我国应制定相应对策以防止金融危机影响进一步扩大。     

后次贷危机时期对中国证券市场对外开放问题的再思考

20世纪80年代以来,各新兴市场国家相继全面开放证券市场.新兴市场国家证券市场的对外开放一方面促进了这些国家证券市场和经济的发展,同时,这些开放国家的金融风险和金融动荡也在增加.本文在分析次贷危机对新兴证券市场的影响后,提出了次贷危机后我国证券市场全面对外开放应该注意的问题.     

美国次贷危机的国际性因素分析

目前,美国次贷危机的影响余波未平.本文首先分析了美国次贷危机发生的背景和过程,然后分析了导致次贷危机的国际性因素,并得出几点启示.     

次贷危机对我国商业银行信贷工作的影响

众所周知，次贷危机在金融市场的全面爆发最终传染到美国的实体经济，并通过国际贸易和投资演变成一场全球性的经济危机。在国外银行业受次贷危机肆虐时，中国银行业已经和即将受到的影响又有几何？本文试从次贷危机的演变过程与形成机理剖析人手，通过分析探讨次贷危机对我国商业银行信贷业务的影响与启示，对我国商业银行信贷工作提出相关对策建议。     

The subprime credit crisis and contagion in financial markets

I conduct an empirical investigation into the pricing of subprime asset-backed collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and their contagion effects on other markets. Using data for the ABX subprime indexes, I find strong evidence of contagion in the financial markets. The results support the hypothesis that financial contagion was propagated primarily through liquidity and risk-premium channels, rather than through a correlated-information channel. Surprisingly, ABX index returns forecast stock returns and Treasury and corporate bond yield changes by as much as three weeks ahead during the subprime crisis. This challenges the popular view that the market prices of these “toxic assets” were unreliable; the results suggest that significant price discovery did in fact occur in the subprime market during the crisis.     

Spillover of fear: Evidence from the stock markets of five developed countries

This study investigates the spillover effect in five leading stock markets (i.e., the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and France). It estimates the spillover indices of these countries and finds that information transmission between these stock markets increases considerably after 1998. Germany and the United States are the main stock markets conveying information to other international markets. Germany primarily influences the French stock market, and the United States significantly influences many other stock markets. Results show that the US stock market shows three periods during which its net spillover effect exceeds zero: the period prior to 1997, the dot-com bubble from 2000 to 2002, and the subprime mortgage crisis and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy from 2007 to 2008. The fear index correlates significantly with the spillover of the US stock market into other markets. The spillover effect of the US stock market demonstrates asymmetry and the likelihood to spread positive fundamental information and non-fundamental information (e.g., fear).     

Global contagion of market sentiment during the US subprime crisis

This paper investigates how global market sentiment propagates among the markets and how the interdependency through the propagation changes during the course of the US subprime crisis. We adopt a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, and use a sample of eight global markets: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, UK, and the Eurozone in our investigation. Our results identify that: (1) a long-run equilibrium relationship existed between market sentiment in the US and other major global markets during the subprime crisis period; (2) a global contagion of market sentiment occurred from the US market on September 15, 2008 to Japan, Korea, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, and the Eurozone; and (3) the major global markets are all interrelated.     

Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis

The article investigates the evidence of financial contagion and market integration in selected European equity markets during nine major crises across regions. The focus is to identify whether (i) contagion evidence is pure or fundamental and (ii) dynamic evolution of integration is in the short run or long run. Wavelet decomposition in both its discrete and continuous forms is used. The findings reveal the following: (i) prior to the subprime crisis, contagion effects generated short-term shocks. The most recent US subprime crisis, however, reveals the evidence of fundamental based contagion. (ii) We find increasing short-run and long-run stock market integration, driven by several stages of the establishment of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), questioning the ultimate benefits of formal entry into EMU membership.     

Spillover and Cojumps Between the U.S. and Chinese Stock Markets

There is an urgent need to understand the spillover and cojump effects between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. The paper finds that since July 2005, the U.S. stock market has caused short-run spillover effects on returns on the Chinese stock market. More specifically, price changes in the United States can be used to predict both closing-to-opening and closing-to-closing returns on the Chinese stock market on the next day. However, there is no significant volatility spillover between the two markets. Both markets have shown stronger cojump behavior since the subprime crisis. The return relationships between the two stock markets are robust.     

Unveiling investor-induced channels of financial contagion in the 2008 financial crisis using copulas

Understanding how financial crises spread is important for policy-makers and regulators in order to take adequate measures to prevent or contain the spread of these crises. This paper will test whether there was contagion of the subprime financial crisis to the European stock markets of the NYSE Euronext group (Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) and, if evidence of contagion is found, it will determine the investor-induced channels through which the crisis propagated. We will use copula models for this purpose. After assessing whether there is evidence of financial contagion in the stock markets, we will examine whether the ‘wealth constraints’ transmission mechanism prevails over the ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel. An additional test looks at the interaction between stock and bond markets during the crisis and allows us to determine if the transmission occurred due to the ‘cross market rebalancing’ channel or the ‘flying to quality’ phenomenon. The tests suggest that (i) financial contagion is present in all analyzed stock markets, (ii) a ‘portfolio rebalancing’ channel is the most important crisis transmission mechanism, (iii) and the ‘flight-to-quality’ phenomenon is also present in all analyzed stock markets.     

Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19

COVID-19 is the first global scale crisis since the inception of Bitcoin. We compare the contagion phenomenon of Bitcoin and other financial markets or assets pre and during the COVID-19 shock in both contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous manner. This paper uses the directed acyclic graph (DAG), spillover index, and network topology to provide strong evidence on the directional contagion outcomes of Bitcoin and other assets. The empirical results show that the contagion effect between Bitcoin and developed markets is strengthened during the COVID-19 crisis. Particularly, European market has a dominant role. Excluding Bitcoin’s own shocks, United State and European markets are the main contagion sources to Bitcoin. European market also works as a intermediary to deliver infectious from United State and market fear. The findings show that gold always has contagion effect with Bitcoin, while gold, US dollar and bond market are the contagion receivers of Bitcoin under the shock of COVID-19. The empirical results further proved the safe haven, hedge and diversifier potential of Bitcoin in economic stable time, but also shows that the sustainability of these properties is undermined during the market turmoil.     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.