欧洲债务危机的救援与风险

<正>欧洲债务危机不断深化,存在较大的不确定性。欧洲债务危机的救援是不断升级的,从采取不救援原则,到针对希腊的超预期的救援措施,以及7500亿欧洲救助方案的出台,显示了债务危机的严重性。欧洲现行的救援体系是由欧洲金融稳定基金、欧盟金融稳定机制以及IMF作为核心主体,欧元区大部分成员国、欧盟、IMF和私人部门共同参与,采取分步走     

欧洲债务危机的影响

欧洲债务危机从爆发到现在还没有过去,对中国乃至世界造成了深远的影响.尤其是对欧元区和全球的经济,不仅影响了欧元币值稳定,也威胁了全球金融稳定.分析现阶段全球普遍面临的欧洲债务危机,分析了对中国的影响,也对未来的发展进行了预测     

欧洲稳定机制与欧洲新稳定框架——基于新三元悖论视角的梳理

欧洲稳定机制作为欧盟一项永久性的金融救助机制,既与之前建立的欧洲金融稳定机制和欧洲金融稳定工具有所联系,同时也带来了更多新的欧债危机解决思路,其中欧洲稳定机制与欧盟近期一些重大的制度性改革紧密相连,暗含着欧洲新稳定框架的构建.为此,本文从Pisani-Ferry(2011)提出的新三元悖论的思路出发来梳理欧洲稳定机制的核心变革及其与欧洲新稳定框架之间的内在联系,最后展望欧盟未来的改革前景.     

国际

欧盟将构筑7000亿欧元债务危机防线 欧盟成员国财政部长3月21日齐聚布鲁塞尔召开特别会议,就欧元区永久性救助机制的具体架构达成了一致,从而为欧元区构筑债务危机永久“防线”绘制出一份“施工图”。根据这份“施工图”,名为“欧洲稳定机制”的欧元区永久性救助机制将在2013年7月前“完工”并正式投入运转。     

欧洲债务危机的影响

欧洲债务危机从爆发到现在还没有过去,对中国乃至世界造成了深远的影响。尤其是对欧元区和全球的经济,不仅影响了欧元币值稳定,也威胁了全球金融稳定。分析现阶段全球普遍面临的欧洲债务危机,分析了对中国的影响,也对未来的发展进行了预测。     

关于欧洲主权债务危机的反思

欧洲主权债务危机是主权问题与银行问题相互作用的结果,充分暴露了欧盟和欧元区政治制度的缺陷,以及行政决策能力的缺陷。在欧盟层面上化解欧洲主权债务危机需要三个条件:(1)在欧元区实行统一的财政政策,与统一的货币政策保持一致。(2)在欧元区建立统一的银行监管框架。(3)进一步推动欧盟和欧元区改革,为财政政策一体化和银行监管一体化提供政治支持。     

欧洲主权债务危机的发展与应对之策

受近期希腊债务违约风险上升、欧债危机向核心国蔓延、欧洲银行业融资缺口扩大等负面因素冲击，欧洲金融市场遭遇大幅动荡。文章指出，在短期内，防止希腊债务违约是遏制欧债危机进一步蔓延、防范债务危机与银行危机并发的关键；长期而言，欧元及欧盟运作机制的改革将不可避免，完善退出机制将是欧元区长期稳定运作的基石。     

ESM难成欧债危机的转折点

尽管ESM的出台有一定的积极作用,但是不足以破解欧债危机的根本难题2012年10月8日,欧元区财长会议正式决定启动总额为5000亿欧元的欧洲永久性援助基金——欧洲稳定机制(ESM),主要目的在于增强欧元区应对主权债务危机的能力。尽管ESM启动和替代临时性的欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)有利于提升欧元区的债务纾困能力,有利于欧元区的经济发展和金融稳定,也对全球经济复苏有一定的正面影响,但其作用和效果仍存在很大不确定性。     

欧洲债务危机有望缓解

一、欧洲主权债务危机的由来欧洲债务危机起始于希腊的主权债务危机。2009年10月20日,希腊政府宣布当年财政赤字占国内生产总值的比例将超过12%,市场开始担心希腊的主权债务将面临违约困境。12月美国三大评级公司相继下调希腊主权信用评级,希腊主权债务危机成为事实。2010年4月,希腊政府向欧盟和国际货币基金组织申请金融援助。同年5月2日,欧元区成员国财政部长召开特别会议,决定和国际货币基金组织共同在未来3年内为希腊提供总额1100亿欧元的贷款。同日,希腊宣布了大规模财政紧缩计划。5月10日欧盟27国财长决定与国际货币基金组织共同设立一项总额高达7500亿欧元的"欧洲稳定机制",帮助可能陷入债务危机的欧元区成员国,阻止希腊债务危机蔓延,至此希腊主权债务危机演变为欧元区的保卫战。6月7日受希腊主权债务危机拖累,欧元对美元汇率一度跌破1比1.19,创下自2006年3月以来的最低水平。     

欧洲金融稳定基金的运作及其启示

主权债务危机爆发后,欧元区迅速采取行动,不仅积极寻求国际社会援助,还将视角转入区内,以期尽快实现自救。欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)的建立是重要举措之一。实践证明,该机制在避免债务危机进一步蔓延方面发挥了重要作用。相比之下,近年来亚洲区域金融安全网建设虽取得了显著成绩,但在治理结构、救助程序、规模与职能以及对救助方的保障等方面仍存在诸多缺陷,制约了其功能的发挥。这就需要积极借鉴EFSF经验,不断完善亚洲区域金融安全网。     

The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries

We estimate short‐ and long‐run tax elasticities that capture the relationship between changes in national income and tax revenue. We show that the short‐run tax elasticity changes according to the business cycle. We estimate a two‐state Markov‐switching regression on a novel data set of tax policy reforms in 15 European countries from 1980 to 2013, showing that the elasticities during booms and recessions are statistically (and often economically) different. The elasticities of personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, indirect taxes and social contributions tend to be larger during recessions. Estimates of long‐run elasticities are in line with existing literature.     

Will the European constitution lead to a European super-state?

The Treaty establishing the Constitution of Europe is cause to raise the question yet again as to whether Europe is headed for super-statehood, at the expense of the sovereign independence of the member states. In his analysis from the perspective of public law, the author places this latest legal re-characterization into the context of the history of European integration, makes further analogy to the German Constitutional Court decision when German citizens raised a similar question at the signing of the Treaty of Maastricht, and concludes that the Treaty has not provided sufficient change in legal power to create a European super-state.     

欧洲议会和欧盟委员会要求采纳国际会计准则

2000年6月13日，欧盟理事会发布了一份备忘录－－《欧盟财务报告战略：未来走向》。在这份备忘录中，欧盟理事会建议，在欧盟成员国范围内的所有上市公司，最迟应于2005年采用国际会计准则编制合并会计报表。2002年7月19日，欧洲议会和欧盟委员会在布鲁塞尔召开大会，讨论通过了“关于运用国际会计准则的第1606号(2002)决议”(下称“1606号决议”)。现将该决议的有关内容做一介绍。一、1606号决议的目的1606号决议所指的“国际会计准则”包括：国际会计准则(IAS)，国际财务报告准则(IFRS)及相关解释，对准则的修订及相关解释，以及由其他…     

动产抵押权登记制度推动银行贷款业务发展的研究

动产抵押可以克服不动产抵押和动产质押自身存在的不足而深受中小企业和个人申请银行贷款的青睐,动产抵押制度在我国也表现出了诸多的问题,无法在银行贷款业务中被广泛接受.面对我国动产抵押贷款业务的不断飙升,动产抵押贷款必将迎来广泛的发展空间,因动产抵押现存的问题回避它不足取,只有防范动产抵押贷款业务中的问题,才可以适应整个融资...     

Revisiting the European Asset Management Industry

During the last decade, the European asset management industry has undergone a period of unprecedented change. Europe has witnessed ten years of financial integration, driven in particular by various regulatory initiatives. But Europe has also been transformed in the geopolitical sense, with 12 new Member States and millions of new citizens of the European Union. Add to that a decade of rapid globalization and one financial crisis of historical proportions. But while Europe and its financial markets have evolved and the asset management industry has transformed itself, academic research has not kept pace. During the last ten years or so, the lack of systematic research on the structural dimensions of the asset management industry is striking. This article fills this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of the European asset management industry at the end of the first decade of the 21^st century. We seek to provide explanations to the various differences observed between European countries. Using prior research as a basis, we also compare the characteristics of the industry to their standing at the turn of the century. This also includes assessing whether and to what extent the forecasts provided in prior research did materialize. We also try to find reasons for cases in which they did not. Finally, we ourselves offer a number of prognoses on the development of the European asset management over the coming years.     

Turkey's accession to the European Union

Turkey's accession to the European Union is often discussed by posing the simple question of whether it should be admitted. Polite legal discussions will quickly point to the Copenhagen criteria for admission of a state to the Union. Less polite discussion will raise issues regarding whether the whole state can be characterized as a religious state, and a Muslim state at that, whether there is independent government interest beyond the military and religious interests and whether more than 2 million Turks already living in the European Union give Europe any idea of what it might be like to have Turkey admitted in its entirety. In the end, this author concludes that given all of these obstacles, perhaps the most telling question to be asked is why Turkey has been invited in the first place.