Accounting Practices and the Market Valuation of Accounting Numbers: Evidence from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand

This study examines the relation between stock prices and accounting earnings and book values in six Asian countries: Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The analysis is based on a residual earnings model that expresses the value of the firm in terms of book value and residual income. The model holds for any clean surplus accounting system. However, for finite time horizons, biased accounting may affect model estimates. The six countries examined in this study differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting as well as bias (conservatism). The study addresses two questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting, and are these differences related to accounting differences? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative information content of book value per share (BVPS) and abnormal (residual) earnings per share (REPS) across the countries, and are such differences related to accounting differences? We find differences across the six countries in the explanatory power of BVPS and REPS for firm values. Explanatory power for Taiwan and Malaysia is relatively low while that for Korea and the Philippines is relatively high. These differences are generally consistent with differences in accounting practice; however, since Korean accounting practice is strongly influenced by tax law, we did not expect the high association for Korea. Second, with respect to the incremental and relative explanatory power of BVPS and REPS, we find BVPS to have high explanatory power in the Philippines and Korea but little in Taiwan. In all six countries REPS has less explanatory power than BVPS in most years. Again, the evidence may be interpreted as suggesting accounting practice affects valuation (with Korea again as the exception). Finally, we provide evidence on the sensitivity of the timing of comparisons of stock prices and accounting values. We find that comparing prices at year-end (even though annual accounting information has not been released at that time), in general, provides the highest correlation between market and accounting numbers.     

The relationship between returns and unexpected earnings: A global analysis by accounting regimes

Numerous studies have documented a long-term association between earnings and returns. Surprisingly, few attempts have been made to internationally examine market reactions to earnings releases over return windows less than 12 months. This paper globally explores the market reaction to unexpected earnings defined by both the change in earnings per share (EPS) and analyst forecast errors (AFE) using a 1-month return window. First, the existence of the earnings-returns relationship is examined using a sample of firms from 32 countries grouped into accounting regimes. Accounting regimes represent groups of countries that exhibit similarities in accounting standards, stock market characteristics, corporate governance mechanisms, and economic conditions. Thus, similar reactions to earnings are expected within regimes. Next, the incremental information content of analyst forecasts, a proxy for investors’ earnings expectations, is examined. Finally, changes in the structure of the earnings-returns relationship over time are investigated. Results support the existence of a relationship between earnings and returns in all accounting regimes. In addition, analyst forecast errors appear to be incorporated into earnings expectations in most developed countries. Finally, evidence suggests that the significance and explanatory power in the earnings-returns relationship has increased in recent years.     

The incremental information content of replacement cost earnings

The study explores the incremental explanatory power of replacement cost earnings variables (derived from ASR 190 data) with respect to explaining cross sectional differences in security returns. As such, the study is a natural extension of previous research, including analyses of the effect of security returns of ASR 190 data at the time of disclosure, investigations of cross sectional relationships between security returns and historical cost earnings, and studies of multiple signals. The basic finding is that pre-holding gain net income provides no incremental explanatory powerm given knowledge of historical cost earnings. However, the converse does not hold. Taken together, the findings are consistent with the contention that pre-holding gain net income is a garbled version of historical cost earnings. The basic finding is robust under several extensions of the initial research design. The research design incorporates a two-stage approach which permits a determination of the incremental explanatory power of collinear variables. The findings are in contrast to those of a previous study by Easman et al. (1979). The nature of the difference in research design inducing the difference is identified. Potential reasons for the difference in findings are provided.     

Does trading volume detect information content in earnings reconciliations of foreign firms?

Currently, foreign firms trading securities on U.S. markets provide periodically a quantitative reconciliation of selected financial data consistent with U.S. GAAP (hereafter referred to as reconciled information) in Form 20-F. The SEC is examining whether users believe that this reconciliation process provides additional information above that provided by the foreign GAAP earning announcement and whether this incremental information enhances usefulness for market participants. We examine whether the reconciliation affects a primary indicator of information usefulness: the trading volume of capital markets participants.We use a regression model to examine the relation between a measure of abnormal trading volume and four firm-specific variables in the firm's information environment: similarities of accounting systems, analyst following, difference between reconciled earnings and foreign GAAP earnings, and dispersion of analysts’ expectations. We find a significant relation between abnormal volume and the reconciled earnings number and between abnormal volume and the dispersion of analysts forecasts. Our findings suggest that market participants may use the 20-F reconciliation in trading decisions.     

Cash flow disaggregation and the prediction of future earnings

We examine the incremental information content of the components of cash flows from operations (CFO). Specifically the research question examined in this paper is whether models incorporating components of CFO to predict future earnings provide lower prediction errors than models incorporating simply net CFO. We use Australian data in this setting as all companies were required to provide information using the direct method during the sample period. We find that the cash flow components model is superior to an aggregate cash flow model in terms of explanatory power and predictive ability for future earnings; and that disclosure of non‐core (core) cash flows components is (not) useful in both respects. Our results are of relevance to investors and analysts in estimating earnings forecasts, managers of firms in regulators’ domains where choice is provided with respect to the disclosure of CFO and also to regulators’ deliberations on disclosure requirements and recommendations.     

Earnings Persistence and Stock Market Reactions to the Different Information in Book-Tax Differences: Evidence from China

Prior studies document that book-tax differences (BTDs) reflect divergent reporting rules for book and tax purposes, and contain information about earnings management and tax planning. In this paper, we investigate whether the regulatory and opportunistic information impounded in BTDs differentially influences earnings persistence and the earnings–returns relation. Using BTD data from China, we separate BTDs into normal BTDs (NBTDs) and abnormal BTDs (ABTDs). NBTDs are more likely driven by regulatory differences between accounting and tax rules and ABTDs are more likely driven by earnings and tax management activities. We find that firms with large positive and negative ABTDs (NBTDs) exhibit less earnings persistence compared to firms with small ABTDs (NBTDs). However, the level of earnings persistence for large unsigned ABTD firms is significantly lower than it is for large unsigned NBTD firms. While large unsigned NBTDs appear to enhance the earnings–returns relation, we find no evidence that large unsigned ABTDs affect the earnings–returns relation. Overall, the results suggest that the differing components of BTDs have differential implications for earnings quality. Additional tests show that ABTDs and NBTDs can provide incremental information about earnings persistence beyond the information in discretionary accruals and total accruals, suggesting that the investigation of BTDs adds value to financial analysis.     

Factors Associated with Differences in the Magnitude of Abnormal Returns Around NYSE Versus Nasdaq Firms' Earnings Announcements

This study provides an explanation for the 'exchange effect' puzzle documented in prior accounting research. Grant (1980) finds that the magnitude of earnings announcement week abnormal returns is higher, on average, for firms traded over-the-counter than for NYSE firms. Atiase (1987) shows that this incremental 'exchange effect' persists even after controlling for firm size. We investigate potential explanations for this incremental exchange effect. We first show that even after controlling for differences in firm size, Nasdaq firms have less rich information environments and enjoy greater growth opportunities than NYSE firms. We then investigate whether differential predisclosure information environments and/or growth opportunities can explain the incremental exchange effect. The results indicate that although the absolute magnitude of the earnings announcement-related abnormal returns is inversely related to proxies for the amount of predisclosure information, the incremental exchange effect cannot be explained by differences in the predisclosure information environment. In contrast, after controlling for differences in growth opportunities across NYSE versus Nasdaq firms, and investors' heightened sensitivity to Nasdaq firms' growth opportunities in particular, there is no significant incremental exchange effect (whether or not we control for predisclosure information). These results suggest that the incremental exchange effect puzzle documented in prior research is more likely to reflect growth-related phenomena than differences in the predisclosure information environment.     

Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information

Ohlson (1995) models firm value as a function of book value, earnings, and analysts' earnings forecasts which capture “other” information not yet reflected in the financial statements. Within this framework, stock returns reflect information from earnings and forecasts, each of which is different in terms of reliability and timeliness. For the period 1984–2012, this paper examines time trends and the influence of aggregate market conditions on the relative relevance of earnings and forecasts. In this context, relative relevance is defined as the incremental explanatory power of earnings or forecasts, relative to their combined explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns. This inquiry is motivated by anecdotal evidence and recent research, which suggests that aggregate market conditions influence the usefulness of accounting information for investors. The findings show that while the relative relevance of earnings has remained stable, the relative relevance of forecasts has increased over time. I also find that the relative relevance of earnings is higher in bad years, i.e. years with low market returns or elevated market uncertainty. Overall, the results reported in this study suggest that despite the increase in the relevance of timely “other” information, investors tend to rely more on reliable accounting information during bad years.     

Accounting-based downside risk,cost of capital,and the macroeconomy

We hypothesize that earnings downside risk, capturing the expectation for future downward operating performance, contains distinct information about firm risk and varies with cost of capital in the cross section of firms. Consistent with the validity of the earnings downside risk measure, we find that, relative to low earnings downside risk firms, high earnings downside risk firms experience more negative operating performance over the subsequent period, are more sensitive to downward macroeconomic states, and are more strongly linked to earnings attributes and other risk-related measures from prior research. In line with our prediction, we also find that earnings downside risk explains variation in firms’ cost of capital, and that this link between earnings downside risk and cost of capital is incremental to several earnings attributes, accounting and risk factor betas, return downside risk, default risk, earnings volatility, and firm fundamentals. Overall, this study contributes to accounting research by demonstrating the key valuation and risk assessment roles of earnings downside risk derived from firms’ financial statements, also shedding new light on the link between accounting and the macroeconomy.     

Managerial Ownership, Information Content of Earnings, and Discretionary Accruals in a Non–US Setting

This study employs Danish data to examine the empirical relationship between the proportion of managerial ownership and two characteristics of accounting earnings: the information content of earnings and the magnitude of discretionary accruals. In previous research concerning American firms, Warfield et al. (1995) document a positive relationship between managerial ownership and the information content of earnings, and a negative relationship between managerial ownership and discretionary accruals. We question the generality of the Warfield et al. result, as the ownership structure found in most other countries, including Denmark, deviates from the US ownership configuration. In fact, Danish data indicate that the information content of earnings is inversely related to managerial ownership.     

Earnings Quality Based on Corporate Investment Decisions

In this paper, I examine a new approach for measuring earnings quality, defined as the closeness of reported earnings to “permanent earnings,” based on firm decisions with regard to capital and labor investments. Specifically, I measure earnings quality as the contemporaneous association between changes in the levels of capital and labor investment and the change in reported earnings. This approach follows the reasoning that (1) firms make investment decisions based on the net present value (NPV) of investment projects and (2) reported earnings with higher quality should more closely associate with real investment decisions. I find that measures of earnings quality based on managerial labor and capital decisions correlate positively with earnings persistence and have incremental explanatory power relative to earnings‐quality measures used in the accounting literature. Furthermore, investment‐based earnings‐quality measures are less informative when managers tend to overinvest.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

The pricing of conservative accounting and the measurement of conservatism at the firm-year level

This paper analyzes the relation between equity prices and conditional conservatism and introduces a new measure of conservatism at the firm-year level. We show that the asymmetric properties of conservative accounting, the existence of non-accounting sources of information, and the properties of GAAP related to special items combine to generate a nonlinear relation between unexpected equity returns and earnings news (the shock to expected current and future earnings). Based on this model, we construct a conservatism ratio (CR) defined as the ratio of the current earnings shock to earnings news. CR measures the proportion of the total shock to expected current and future earnings recognized in current year earnings. Ranking firms according to CR, we show empirically that higher CR firms have more leverage, increased volatility of returns, more incidence of losses, more negative accruals, and increased volatility of earnings and accruals, consistent with the literature on conservative accounting.     

The Investment Opportunity Set and Capitalization versus Expensing Methods of Accounting Choice

This paper examines the effects of the investment opportunity set (IOS) on management's decision to capitalize or expense significant costs in two diverse settings: (1) in accounting for exploration and development (E&D) costs by firms in the oil-and-gas industry, and (2) in accounting for research and development (R&D) costs by firms (across industries) prior to 1974. We argue that the relation between the IOS and the decision to capitalize versus to expense is based upon managerial incentives to reduce the variance of accounting earnings. High-growth firms are more likely to have more variable earnings, which therefore creates greater incentives to reduce earnings variability. Because the capitalization method generally results in a lower variance of reported earnings than does the expensing method, high-growth firms are more likely to select capitalization. Our results show that, after controlling for firm size and for the indirect effects of the IOS mediated by debt contracts, high-growth firms (firms with fewer assets-in-place) are more likely than low-growth firms to select the capitalization method of accounting for E&D and R&D expenses.
JEL classification: M41; G31     

Dividend Changes and Future Profitability

We investigate the relation between dividend changes and future profitability, measured in terms of either future earnings or future abnormal earnings. Supporting "the information content of dividends hypothesis," we find that dividend changes provide information about the level of profitability in subsequent years, incremental to market and accounting data. We also document that dividend changes are positively related to earnings changes in each of the two years after the dividend change.     

Accounting diversity and firm valuation

We examine accounting numbers and stock prices across three countries: Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom (UK). The accounting systems in the three countries differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting and in conservatism. We address three questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative value relevance of book values and earnings per shape (EPS) across the countries? Third, do future earnings realizations (proxies for expected earnings) explain current stock prices? We find that accounting book value and EPS are significantly related to current stock prices across all three countries. German accounting numbers have the lowest relation with stock prices (R² ≈ 40%) and UK accounting numbers the highest (R² ≈ 70%), while Norwegian accounting numbers are in between (R² ≈ 60%). Second, the incremental and relative explanatory power of book value and of EPS differs across time and across countries. Book values explain more than earnings in Germany and Norway, but less in the UK. Finally, future income realization explain little about market prices not already explained by current book value and EPS.     

The role of accruals and cash flows in explaining security returns: Evidence from New Zealand

This paper empirically examines the relative and incremental information content of earnings and cash flows and the role of firm-specific contextual factors in moderating information content in New Zealand. Accounting earnings are considered to be the premier information source for decision making and a substantial volume of literature, primarily in the United States, shows that earnings provide superior information to that of cash flows. However, significant reporting differences in New Zealand warrant and investigation of the role of earnings and cash flows to explain security returns. Results show that (a) earnings have higher explanatory power than cash flows, although the difference is not statistically significant, and (b) both earnings and cash flows have incremental information content for stock returns. Further analysis shows that the valuation role of earnings and cash flows is moderated by firm-specific factors.     

Underfunding pension obligations while paying dividends: evidence of risk transfers

This research examines the differential effects of earnings, dividends, and cashflows on increases and decreases in pension liabilities. Of the 1700 firms in the Value Line Investment Survey (1997a), there were 189 firms with pension liabilities—88 (101) firms with increasing (decreasing) pension liabilities that serve as research observations. For firms with increasing pension liabilities, there is a significant correlation between the increase in pension liabilities and earnings, cashflows, and dividends. However, none of these relationships exist for firms with decreasing pension liabilities. The underfunding of pension funds is a unilateral decision by management that effectively transfers risk away from stockholders and imposes it on employees and potentially on the society at large. This risk transfer is not associated with any compensatory returns and suggests social and regulatory policies should be reconsidered.     

Earnings quality and the heterogeneous relation between earnings and stock returns

We adopt a heterogeneous regime switching method to examine the informativeness of accounting earnings for stock returns. We identify two distinct time-series regimes in terms of the relation between earnings and returns. In the low volatility regime (typical of bull markets), earnings are moderately informative for stock returns. But in high volatility market conditions (typical of financial crisis), earnings are strongly related to returns. Our evidence suggests that earnings are more informative to investors when uncertainty and risk is high which is consistent with the idea that during market downturns investors rely more on fundamental information about the firm. Next, we identify groups of firms that follow similar regime dynamics. We find that the importance of accounting earnings for returns in each of the market regimes varies across firms: certain firms spend more time in a regime where their earnings are highly relevant to returns, and other firms spend more time in a regime where earnings are moderately relevant to returns. We also show that firms with poorer accrual quality have a greater probability of belonging to the high volatility regime.     

The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan

A major financial disclosure feature in Japan is that stock exchanges require firms to provide next year's earnings forecasts. This study investigates the value relevance of Japanese management earnings forecasts and their impact on analysts' earnings forecasts. First, the value relevance of management forecasts is investigated using a valuation framework provided by Ohlson (2001 ), in which firm value is expressed as a function of book value, current earnings and next year's expected earnings. The analysis yields that of the three accounting variables examined, management forecasts have the highest correlation and incremental explanatory power with stock price.
Next, the impact of management forecasts on analysts' forecasts is examined. The results show that more than 90% of changes in analysts' forecasts are explained by management forecasts alone. Further analysis reveals that the heavy dependence of financial analysts on management forecasts in formulating their own forecasts may partially be attributed to the relatively high accuracy of management forecasts. At the same time, financial analysts also somewhat modify management forecasts when certain financial factors indicate that the credibility of management forecasts is in doubt.
Overall, this study presents empirical evidence that Japanese management forecasts provide useful information for the market and have a significant influence on analysts' forecasts.