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1.
潜在产出和产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念,常用来分析宏观经济运行态势,并在一定程度上作为政府制定宏观经济政策的依据。在短期,估算产出缺口可以评估通货膨胀压力,在中期,估算潜在产出有助于了解实际经济增长的水平和空间,从而为调整宏观政策的方向和着力点提供一些依据。不过,在实践过程中,潜在产出和产出缺口对现实的指导作用可能差强人意,尤其对我国而言。目前潜在产出理论的研究离我国的实际较远。  相似文献   

2.
潜在产出的估计与分析对于一个国家的长期经济走势预测有很高的参考价值,另外潜在产出和产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念与政策制定者关心的经济增长、物价水平、失业率、短期经济波动和制定中长期经济政策等都密切相关。本文首先介绍了经济增长和潜在产出的相关理论综进并阐述经济长期增长走势与测算潜在产出的关系。之后介绍测算潜在产出的一种方法——HP滤波法,对我国潜在产出进行了实际测算,分析测算结果。最后为全文的总结并预测中国经济走势。  相似文献   

3.
本文利用生产函数法,对我国各省、直辖市、自治区1990~2011年潜在产出水平进行了估计。通过面板数据计量分析发现,各地潜在产出缺口与通货膨胀密切相关,与理论含义相一致,表明生产函数产出缺口估计方法是合理的,这为准确判断宏观经济形势和通胀压力提供了可靠的依据。从产出缺口的表现来看,尽管大部分省份产出缺口方向与我国经济周期是一致的,但并非完全一样,说明各地经济增长仍然具有自身的特征,一定程度上反映了我国区域经济发展的差异性,这对宏观调控和区域发展政策提出了新的要求。  相似文献   

4.
本文对我国自1984年以来的产出缺口变动轨迹进行了研究,并以此为基础重点探讨了我国货币政策的产出效应.在研究方法上主要应用了向量自回归VAR系统.研究结果表明,我国产出缺口的主要决定因素是实体经济本身,货币因素对产出缺口的影响相对较小,并且具有明显时滞效应.所以在当前的保增长政策措施中,坚持财政刺激政策为主、货币扩张为辅的原则是正确的,但政策当局应尽早制定经济刺激政策的退出机制,从而最大化降低刺激政策的负作用.  相似文献   

5.
基于附加预期的菲利普斯曲线,研究了我国和全球经济政策不确定性在改变我国通货膨胀(以下简称"通胀")对国际因素敏感性方面的作用.研究发现:(1)相比于全球产出缺口,我国产出缺口对国内通胀的影响较大;动态分析显示,全球产出缺口对我国通胀的影响呈现下降趋势,而国内产出缺口的影响较为稳定;(2)我国或全球的经济政策不确定性不会显著改变我国通胀对全球产出缺口的敏感性,但二者协同程度的高低会负向影响我国通胀对全球产出缺口的敏感性.建议科学研判国际因素的外溢性和国内外经济形势的协同性,保持政策定力,注重引导市场预期,维持物价基本稳定,以支持经济高质量发展.  相似文献   

6.
潜在产出与产出缺口是宏观经济学的重要概念,也是政府制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。本文在对当前潜在产出和产出缺口分析的基础上,得出了当前经济运行基本正常但存在局部过热的现象,并从货币政策角度提出了调控的基本取向。  相似文献   

7.
基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型对中国2001年第1季度至2009年第4季度的产出缺口估计结果显示,央行在调整利率时相对通货膨胀率变化更注重应对产出缺口的变化,中国菲利普斯曲线呈现较明显的前瞻性特征。与使用HP滤波方法估计结果相比,用新凯思斯DSGE模型估计的产出缺口更能解释中国历史宏观经济波动;中国实际产出主要受到需求和技术冲击的影响,潜在产出主要受到技术冲击的影响,而成本推动冲击和政策冲击影响非常小;稳健性检验结果显示,采用DSGE模型对中国产出缺口进行估计的结果是可靠的,是一种科学的分析方法。  相似文献   

8.
论中国宏观经济走势:基于产出缺口与AD—AS模型的分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
美国爆发的次贷危机引发全球金融海啸,金融危机正在向实体经济传导,中国经济发展面临的不确定因素明显增多,分析中国宏观经济走势以及时调整政策具有重要的现实意义.本文构建状态空间模型运用Kalman滤波估算我国潜在产出与产出缺口,进而测算我国长期经济增长趋势、可接受的产出缺口区间与经济增长区间,并在AD-AS模型的框架下从理论上分析影响短期经济波动的关键因素以及中国宏观经济走势,最后结合实证与理论分析提出相应的政策建议.  相似文献   

9.
分析Kalman滤波和多变量HP滤波的原理,以及两者之间的内在逻辑联系。以附加预期的菲利普斯曲线为理论基础,利用Kalman滤波和多变量HP滤波方法估计我国1995年第1季度至2012年第2季度的潜在产出和产出缺口,估计结果表明各产出缺口基本上与我国经济运行状况相吻合。利用Coe和McDermot(t1997)预测模型和VAR模型检验表明产出缺口能够很好地预测通货膨胀率,尤其是Kalman滤波估计的产出缺口预测效果更好。因此产出缺口对于货币当局的政策分析具有十分重要的意义。  相似文献   

10.
利用1994年1季度至2012年2季度的GDP和CPI数据,应用基于长期约束的SVAR模型估算我国产出缺口,并进行了模型合理性和模型稳定性评价。实证研究表明,需求冲击和供给冲击对我国经济增长产生不同影响,需求冲击表现为周期性扰动;利用不同时期样本数据估算的我国产出缺口非常相近,SVAR模型稳定性较好;基于SVAR模型估算的我国产出缺口周期转折点与基准经济周期转折点基本保持一致,产出缺口的变化反映了我国经济周期走势。总体看,SVAR模型能够较好地估算我国产出缺口。  相似文献   

11.
We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates since the mid‐1980s and show that the average revision has been significantly smaller since the early 2000s. Alternatively, revisions from econometric output gap estimates have not experienced a similar improvement. We show that the overestimation of potential output in real time following the 1991–92 recession explains the large revisions in the first half of the sample. Although Phillips‐curve inflation forecasts slightly worsen when conditioned on real time instead of final gaps, their relative poor performance reflects the general lack of inflation predictability rather than real‐time gap measurement issues.  相似文献   

12.
Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors compare the statistical nature and potential forecasting effects of the resulting multivariate gap measure on monetary policy with those of the output gap measures based on univariate models. The empirical results show that only the measure based on the multivariate system significantly predicts monetary policy, which indicates that the output gap estimated by the multivariate system contains more information than the traditional measures for macroeconomic policy adjustments do.  相似文献   

13.
This paper discusses an experimental study on the role of monetary policy within a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework. The novelty of this article is that each subject was asked to forecast both the inflation rate and output gap at the same time one period ahead, which is an improvement over the existing literature. We find that if both the expected inflation rate and expected output gap is incorporated in the monetary policy rule then inflation can be anchored and stabilized more efficiently.  相似文献   

14.
随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。  相似文献   

15.
基于菲利普斯曲线理论中产出缺口与通货膨胀率的关系,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算我国的潜在产出与产出缺口,通过格兰杰因果关系验证产出缺口与通货膨胀的因果关系,并建立产出缺口的菲利普斯曲线模型进行通货膨胀预测。实证结果表明该模型能够较好地预测我国通货膨胀,从而能为制定相应的货币政策提供良好的参考。  相似文献   

16.
Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in inflation and in the output gap over the period 1969-2000. While the feedback from output gap is always negative, the response of money supply to changes in inflation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed reserves decreased with inflation in the post-1979 period and increased in the pre-1979 period. Applying a standard macro-model, the estimated reaction functions are shown to ensure equilibrium determinacy. Viewed through the money supply lens, Federal Reserve policy substantially changed over time, but has never allowed for endogenous fluctuations, which contrasts conclusions drawn from federal funds rate analyses.  相似文献   

17.
18.
Under a conventional policy rule, a central bank adjusts its policy rate linearly according to the gap between inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under “the opportunistic approach to disinflation” a central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is far from its target, but concentrates more on output stabilization when inflation is close to its target, allowing supply shocks and unforeseen fluctuations in aggregate demand to move inflation within a certain band. We use stochastic simulations of a small-scale rational expectations model to contrast the behavior of output and inflation under opportunistic and linear rules.  相似文献   

19.
This paper examines how stock market liquidity and commonality in liquidity are impacted by real-time output gap and inflation, as these macroeconomic variables have been shown to be the main drivers of monetary policy according to the Taylor rule. We show that an increase in the output gap and inflation lowers stock liquidity and increases commonality in liquidity, since it points to a contractionary monetary policy and is likely to lead to a decline in the liquidity providers' funding liquidity. This effect is larger for stocks with low market capitalization and low liquidity.  相似文献   

20.
In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of “dual mandate” policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap.  相似文献   

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