人民币升值预期与贸易差额：2003~2009年

通过选取2003~2009年的时间序列数据,分析我国贸易差额的影响因素,并对我国贸易项下的非法资金流动规模进行估算。研究结果表明,在控制人民币实际汇率变动和国外市场需求变动之后,我国贸易差额与人民币升值预期之间的相关关系非常显著;人民币升值预期导致的非法资金流入和国外市场需求的变动可以解释我国的贸易差额;在剔除贸易项下非法资金流动和国外市场需求的影响之后,我国贸易差额与人民币实际汇率呈现出负相关关系。     

人民币升值与我国贸易顺差的关联性研究

文章根据传统贸易顺差和汇率理论,分别建立贸易顺差名义汇率模型和贸易顺差实际汇率模型,并将金融危机对我国贸易顺差的影响引入模型。通过向量自回归模型(VAR)和Johansen协整检验分别得出,贸易顺差主要是由外国经济增长造成的,人民币汇率对贸易顺差的弹性系数较小,影响较弱。最后提出斩断人民币升值预期、扩大内需和谨慎对待人民币升值的政策建议。     

人民币升值与我国贸易顺差的关联性研究

文章根据传统贸易顺差和汇率理论,分别建立贸易顺差名义汇率模型和贸易顺差实际汇率模型,并将金融危机对我国贸易顺差的影响引入模型。通过向量自回归模型(VAR)和Johansen协整检验分别得出,贸易顺差主要是由外国经济增长造成的,人民币汇率对贸易顺差的弹性系数较小,影响较弱。最后提出斩断人民币升值预期、扩大内需和谨慎对待人民币升值的政策建议。     

人民币升值分析

我国加入WTO后,人民币升值对我国进出口贸易的影响越来越不可忽视。人民币的升值使出口贸易得到快速增长,而出口的持续增长导致了我国贸易顺差急剧扩大,也造成我国与欧美等国的贸易摩擦不断升温。人民币升值被当成抑制我国出口增长与贸易顺差扩大的一种手段,但并没有达到人们所预期的效果。人民币升值的影响深远,不仅关系到我国进出口贸易的发展,而且还影响到整个社会经济的发展。研究此问题,对保持我国进出口贸易对经济的拉动、促进我国社会经济持续稳定发展以及构建和谐社会都有着重大的意义。     

外汇管制条件下的人民币汇率波动问题研究

本文着重分析了当前人民币汇率升值预期的国际背景及其经济根源,提出了人民币最终会否升值是由美元汇率变动、人民币购买力平价、贸易差额及其国际资本流动四者共同决定的观点,并且笔者从战略角度提出了十点政策建议。     

增加进口贸易可减轻人民币升值压力

从发展趋势看,外界对人民币升值的压力会有增无减,但逐渐扩大进口,减少贸易顺差是缓解或减轻这种压力的有效办法自2005年人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币对美元汇率表现出持续升值状态,人民币汇率对美元升     

坚持方向 明确职责

<正>近期人民币对美元汇率不断创出新高,市场对人民币进一步升值的预期也在加大。对于人民币升值问题,较为主流的观点是宜采取小步快跑的方式,一次性大幅度升值有可能引发大规模的失业；人民币大幅度升值无法扭转当前中美之间的贸易顺差,因为中国的出口是以加工贸易为主。非主流观点倾向于加快升值的速度,认为小幅度缓慢升值将助长热钱的流入。加大对人民币的投机。     

汇率预期挑战外汇收支

应合理引导人民币汇率预期，防止人民币单边升值预期趋强造成的短期内贸易顺差“虚增”和境外资金加速流入。     

汇率预期挑战外汇收支

应合理引导人民币汇率预期，防止人民币单边升值预期趋强造成的短期内贸易顺差“虚增”和境外资金加速流入。     

人民币汇率预期对股票价格的非线性影响

本文使用STR模型考察了2005~2011年期间人民币汇率预期对股票价格的非线性影响。研究结果显示:人民币汇率的过度升值预期会造成国际收支恶化,进而导致股票价格下跌,而人民币汇率的"渐进式"升值预期才会推动股票价格的上涨。当货币政策紧缩或过度宽松时,人民币升值预期对股票价格产生负向影响;当货币政策适度宽松时,人民币升值预期对股票价格产生正向影响。政策建议如下:政府部门要逐步实现国际收支的总体平衡,从而减弱国际市场对人民币的过度升值预期,同时中国人民银行应保持货币政策的稳健性,进而有效地维护股市的稳定,促进资本市场的健康发展。     

Cost accounting standard and cost accounting systems in Japan. Lessons from the past - recovering lost traditions

This paper aims to show two things. The first is how Japanese culture has contributed to the development of Japanese cost accounting history. The second is to reveal the research possibilities of cost accounting history. This paper also reviews the salient features of several important examples of these aspects of cost accounting practice in Japan. It therefore explores, through some practical illustrations, how and why Japanese cost accounting differs from that found in the West.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research‘‘CJAR’’(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditin...     

Shared Standard Setting in the Public Interest:A Strong Model

正The last two decades have been a definitive era in the evolution of the accountancy profession.In the wake of major corporate scandals at the turn of the century,an international public debate arose on the need for more effective and well-considered regulation;this debate then reignited during the global financial and sovereign debt crises.     

HOW TO PUT TOGETHER A COMPLETE PACKAGE

正Many Institute members know they cannot rely purely on technical knowledge and business acumen to remain competitive.As soft skills are increasingly important,Jemelyn Yadao finds out how CPAs can maintain     

Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

The historical significance of the revaluation of fixed assets in Japan's state-owned railway system, 1955-6

The Government Railways of Japan (GRJ) established a fixed assets accounting system on the accruals basis after the Second World War. The revaluation of tangible fixed assets was indispensable for GRJ's introduction of depreciation in 1948. GRJ scheduled the revaluation to secure a reasonable depreciation expense, because the company had applied the replacement method to all tangible fixed assets since its foundation in 1869. At the same time, GRJ assumed the balance of the revaluation reserve account to be a means of dealing with possible future accumulated losses.     

Effects of speculation and interest rates in a “carry trade” model of commodity prices

The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants' expectations of future price changes on the other hand. It goes beyond past research by bringing to bear new data sources: survey data to measure expectations of future changes in commodity prices and options data to measure perceptions of risk. Some evidence is found of a negative effect of interest rates on the demand for inventories and thereby on commodity prices and positive effects of expected future price gains on inventory demand and thereby on today's commodity prices.     

Optimal Dynamic Premium Control in Non-life Insurance. Maximizing Dividend Pay-outs

In this paper we consider the problem of finding optimal dynamic premium policies in non-life insurance. The reserve of a company is modeled using the classical Cramér-Lundberg model with premium rates calculated via the expected value principle. The company controls dynamically the relative safety loading with the possibility of gaining or loosing customers. It distributes dividends according to a 'barrier strategy' and the objective of the company is to find an optimal premium policy and dividend barrier maximizing the expected total, discounted pay-out of dividends. In the case of exponential claim size distributions optimal controls are found on closed form, while for general claim size distributions a numerical scheme for approximations of the optimal control is derived. Based on the idea of De Vylder going back to the 1970s, the paper also investigates the possibilities of approximating the optimal control in the general case by using the closed form solution of an approximating problem with exponential claim size distributions.     

'More a national asset than an investor's paradise': financial management and the British Motor Corporation, 1952-68

This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of financial management in the British motor industry in the 1950s and 1960s. We question whether US ownership automatically implied greater financial control and immunity from capital market pressures and discuss whether the problems BMC/BMH (British Motor Corporation/British Motor Holdings) experienced were symptomatic of the absence of financial imperatives among British management at this time. Finally we widen the agenda to place our findings on financial management into a wider literature dealing more generally with the problems of managerial control and corporate governance within the motor vehicle industry in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Religion and stock price crash risk:Evidence from China

This paper investigates whether religious traditions influence firm-specific crash risk in China.Using a sample of A-share listed firms from 2003 to 2013,we pro...