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1.
刘程程  苏治  宋鹏 《金融研究》2015,485(11):94-112
近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。  相似文献   

2.
刘程程  苏治  宋鹏 《金融研究》2020,485(11):94-112
近年来,伴随金融一体化程度的加深,全球各股票市场间风险传染的动态复杂性加剧,其准确测度、高效监管及实时预警已成为优先事项。本研究选取全球21个代表性股票市场作为分析样本,首先基于广义向量自回归模型的滚动估计准确测度其间风险动态传染的高维网络序列,进一步借由矩阵值因子模型来稳健收缩上述序列,以探究其潜在动态核心结构,从而实现高效监管。最后,通过向量自回归模型的预测功能实现对全球股票市场间风险传染的实时预警。研究表明,全球股票市场间风险传染具有时变性,其监管与预警可通过少数与地理区域高度相关的风险区域间的动态传染关系及内部的市场构成来刻画。与此同时,我们发现中国内地等新兴市场的重要地位逐渐凸显。本文研究结论可为有效防范与化解金融风险提供有益参考。  相似文献   

3.
徐飞  花冯涛  李强谊 《金融研究》2019,468(6):169-187
“传染性”是股价崩盘三大基本特征之一,会加剧股价崩盘负面影响,甚至引发系统性金融风险,因此,本文重点关注股价崩盘传染机制研究。首先,本文基于两阶段理性预期均衡模型,提出股价崩盘传染两大假设,即投资者理性预期与流动性约束导致传染;其次,基于2000-2016年全球28个国家或地区资本市场数据,实证检验股价崩盘传染机制和传染渠道。研究显示:(1)投资者理性预期、流动性约束会导致股价崩盘发生传染;(2)股价崩盘事件会在资本市场关联国家或地区传染;(3)提高资本市场信息透明度、加强金融管制有助于降低受关联国家或地区股价崩盘传染。  相似文献   

4.
This paper proposes a novel interconnected multilayer network framework based on variance decomposition and block aggregation technique, which can be further served as a tool of linking and measuring cross-market and within-market contagion. We apply it to quantifying connectedness among global stock and foreign exchange (forex) markets, and demonstrate that measuring volatility spillovers of both stock and forex markets simultaneously could support a more comprehensive view for financial risk contagion. We find that (i) stock markets transmit the larger spillovers to forex markets, (ii) the French stock market is the largest risk transmitter in multilayer networks, while some Asian stock markets and most forex markets are net risk receivers, and (iii) interconnected multilayer networks could signal the financial instability during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Our work provides a new perspective and method for studying the cross-market risk contagion.  相似文献   

5.
We examine whether there is contagion from the US stock market to six Central and Eastern European stock markets. We use a novel measure of contagion that examines whether volatility shocks in the US stock market coupled with negative returns are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and emerging stock markets. Using our approach and controlling for a set of market-related variables, we show that during the period from 1998 to 2014, financial contagion occurred, that is, unexpected negative events in the US market are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and Central and Eastern European stock markets. Even though contagion is stronger during the financial crisis, it also occurs in tranquil times.  相似文献   

6.
By employing the volatility impulse response (VIRF) approach, this paper presents a general framework for addressing the extent of contagion effects between the BRICSs’ and U.S. stock markets and how the BRICSs’ stock markets have been influenced in the context of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis. Our empirical results show during the period of 2007–2009 global financial crisis, there are significant contagion effects from the U.S. to the BRICSs’ stock markets. Yet, the degree of stock market reactions to such shocks differs from one market to another, depending on the level of integration with the international economy. Besides, the strengthened degree of stock market integration among the U.S. and BRICS has adverse effect such that if the 2007–2009 global financial crisis occurs today it may result in heavier impact on stock market volatility nowadays compared to the crisis-era.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.  相似文献   

8.
‘Fast and furious’ contagion across capital markets is an important phenomenon in an increasingly integrated financial world. Different from ‘slow-burn’ spillover or interdependence among these markets, ‘fast and furious’ contagion can occur instantly. To investigate this kind of contagion from the US, Japan and Hong Kong to other Asian economies, we design a research strategy to capture fundamental interdependence, or ‘slow-burn’ spillover, among these stock markets as well as short-term departures from this interdependence. Based on these departures, we propose a new contagion measure which reveals how one market responds over time to a shock in another market. We also propose international portfolio analysis for contagion via variance decomposition from the portfolio manager’s perspective. Using this research strategy, we find that the US stock market was cointegrated with the Asian stock markets during four specific periods from 3 July 1997 to 30 April 2014. Beyond this fundamental interdependence, the shocks from both Japan and Hong Kong have significant ‘fast and furious’ contagion effects on other Asian stock markets during the US subprime crisis, but the shocks from the US have no such effects.  相似文献   

9.
The sudden and rapid spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a severe impact on financial markets and economic activities all over the world. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and intensity of financial contagion during the COVID-19 outbreak. We use daily series of stock indexes of 10 Asian countries (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia and China) and 4 American countries (the United-States, Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina) over the period starting from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th, 2021. Based on a copula approach, the results show that all studied markets are affected by the COVID-19 outbreak and the presence of financial contagion for all American and Asian countries. The results also show that contagion is more intense for American countries than Asian ones. These findings have practical implications, especially for investors, risk managers, and policy makers. The latter should continue to provide liquidity to the international market during this pandemic.  相似文献   

10.
郑挺国  葛厚逸 《金融研究》2021,489(3):170-187
传统研究采用静态CCK模型检验股票市场的羊群效应,但无法描述羊群行为的动态变化以及市场可能受到的外部影响。本文基于中国股市日频交易数据,在静态CCK模型中引入参数的区制转移性质识别股市在不同状态间的转换,并分析中国股市羊群效应和交叉羊群效应的时变特征。研究表明,中国股市运行周期可被划分为两个区制,分别呈现低波动和高波动的行情特征;羊群效应的程度随区制转移而变化,具有区制依存性。其中,沪深股市在高(低)波动区制中,羊群效应更强(弱),相应区制持续时间较短(长);中国台湾股市仅在高波动区制中出现羊群效应,相应区制持续时间较短;中国香港股市无论在低波动区制或是高波动区制中,均不存在羊群效应。此外,沪深A股在低波动区制中对美国股市和中国香港股市存在交叉羊群效应。  相似文献   

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