首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
由于理论方法的假设与实际情况往往存在差异,传统DCF分析方法具有本质缺陷。同时,清洁能源发电项目投资具有很高的不可逆性、不确定性、竞争性和可持续发展特性,因此传统DCF分析方法不太适合清洁能源发电项目投资决策。基于此,本文提出了在清洁能源发电项目投资决策中引入实物期权的思路,并初步讨论了清洁能源发电项目投资的实物期权模型及其与企业策略相结合的方法。  相似文献   

2.
实物期权研究述评   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
实物期权思想是Wcisbrod(1974)和Arrow(1974)等人研究在给定不可逆条件下政府投资决策时首先提出的。随后,实物期权被广泛运用于资本预算和价值评估领域,相比传统的资本预算模型(DCF)具有无比优越性。而将实物期权理论用于解释企业存在与效率边际则为企业理论提供了一个动态的观察角度,必将对企业理论的发展产生深远影响。  相似文献   

3.
企业价值是企业管理和决策中最重要的驱动目标,也是价值驱动管理的核心.企业价值评估是分析和衡量企业的公平市场价值并提供有关信息,以帮助投资人和管理当局改善决策的一种经济评估方法.企业价值评估方法主要有资产价值评估法,相对价值法,DCF模型及其派生模型和实物期权法.其中DCF模型及其派生模型是当前主流的企业价值评估方法.本文着重对DCF模型及其派生EVA模型进行了比较研究.  相似文献   

4.
模糊环境下基于实物期权的商标权评估模型,是考虑了商标权具有扩张期权、收缩期权、放弃期权等期权特征,以及商誉潜在价值的不确定性等因素,将实物期权定价模型与模糊集理论相结合而提出的一种商标权价值评估方法。它比传统的DCF法能够更合理地评估商标权的价值。  相似文献   

5.
实物期权在企业并购中的应用研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
目标企业定价在并购行为中具有至关重要的意义,本文将实物期权方法运用于目标企业的定价,并运用Black-Scholes期权定价模型和二叉树定价模型分析了单一期权和多期权条件下并购企业的期权价值。通过例子证明实物期权的运用有利于并购企业更好地评估投资行为本身,并做出正确的决策。  相似文献   

6.
在项目投资评价的实践和理论研究中,产生了许多不同的评价方法,其中主要有两类方法:不考虑时间价值的和考虑时间价值的,但在现今内外环境复杂多变的市场经济条件下,投资者往往采用发展的观点去评价投资项目--实物期权评价方法,利用实物期权评价方法不仅相对于传统方法更科学,而且可以应用B-S定价模型来预测投资时机。  相似文献   

7.
实物期权理论及在银行贷款评审中的应用研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
实物期权概念的提出 实物期权概念的提出与企业投资决策分析问题有着密切的联系,它是金融期权在公司理财领域的一种扩展.众所周知,贴现现金流法(Discounted Cash Flow,简称DCF)是通用的投资决策分析方法.  相似文献   

8.
中国经济型连锁酒店连锁经营的模式意味着新项目的投资能够带来增长的机会,同时由于处于激烈的市场竞争环境中,新项目投资存在较多不确定因素,传统的投资评价方法往往不能反映这些因素的影响。实物期权理论为企业项目投资提供了机会管理和动态规划的思想,相较于传统的静态评价方法,实物期权理论考虑到了机会和不确定性为企业发展带来价值,为资本预算管理决策提供了新思路。然而不确定因素的复杂性及其量化衡量以及成为实物期权评价模型在实务推广中的障碍。本文将从实践出发分析实务期权模型在中国经济连锁酒店项目投资中的适用性和应用前景。  相似文献   

9.
PREFACE/前言期权是20世纪国际金融市场创新实践的一个成功典范。实物期权(Real Option)从狭义上讲就是金融期权理论在实物(即非金融)资产期权上的扩展。实物期权的本质是一种思维方式,即将金融市场的规律引入企业内部战略决策之中。实物期权可以进一步划分为分阶段的投资期权,延迟投资期权、扩张期权等。借助于实物期权思想,对处于成长期产品的供应链风险实施有效的管理是一种值得探索的新尝试。  相似文献   

10.
在不确定性和竞争性的策略互动环境中,根据投资时机相对性和绝对性的不同要求可以将期权博弈模型划分为绝对时机选择和相对时机选择两个类型。我们首先综述投资时机选择的期权博弈理论文献;然后以"随机最优停止问题"为研究基点,分别探讨投资时机选择的完全信息与不完全信息期权博弈模型;最后论述基于"追随-抢先模型"的投资时机选择期权博弈评价。  相似文献   

11.
Finance theorists have long argued that DCF undervalues investment opportunities with significant flexibility to respond to future events and that real options valuation methods provide a solution to that problem. But for most corporate managers, real options analysis continues to be a "black box" when applied to real investment decisions.
This paper begins by considering why these approaches have not yet made it to the mainstream of practical application. It then shows how a traditional DCF approach can undervalue a project that provides management with operating flexibility and illustrates a case study that demonstrates to senior management how a real options valuation method with a few clear value drivers can build upon and be made consistent with the traditional DCF framework.
Critical to this process is ensuring consistency with the company's planning assumptions such as future price forecasts and discount rates. The article shows how to separate the static ("optionless") DCF value from the additional real options value that is shown to be a direct consequence of the assumptions about price dynamics.  相似文献   

12.
Making real options really work   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
As a way to value growth opportunities, real options have had a difficult time catching on with managers. Many CFOs believe the method ensures the overvaluation of risky projects. This concern is legitimate, but abandoning real options as a valuation model isn't the solution. Companies that rely solely on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis underestimate the value of their projects and may fail to invest enough in uncertain but highly promising opportunities. CFOs need not--and should not--choose one approach over the other. Far from being a replacement for DCF analysis, real options are an essential complement, and a project's total value should encompass both. DCF captures a base estimate of value; real options take into account the potential for big gains. This is not to say that there aren't problems with real options. As currently applied, they focus almost exclusively on the risks associated with revenues, ignoring the risks associated with a project's costs. It's also true that option valuations almost always ignore assets that an initial investment in a subsequently abandoned project will often leave the company. In this article, the authors present a simple formula for combining DCF and option valuations that addresses these two problems. Using an integrated approach, managers will, in the long run, select better projects than their more timid competitors while keeping risk under control. Thus, they will outperform their rivals in both the product and the capital markets.  相似文献   

13.
基于实物期权理论,构建自贸试验区企业多阶段研发投资动态决策模型,运用数值模拟方法,考量自贸试验区相关税收、补贴以及知识产权保护等创新支持政策对企业研发投资行为的影响。结果显示:相比传统投资决策方法,多阶段研发投资动态决策模型能更好地帮助企业根据市场环境变化动态调整研发投资策略,发掘政策红利;有助于政府及时调整与完善相关政策,激励与引导企业创新。鉴于此,需完善鼓励类产业目录、优化事中事后监管规则、健全知识产权保护机制、适时调整企业发展战略。  相似文献   

14.
Much of a firm's market value derives from expected future growth value rather than from the value of current operations or assets in place. Pharmaceutical companies are good examples of firms where much market value comes from expectations about drugs still in the development “pipeline.” Using a new osteoporosis drug being developed by Gilead Sciences, Inc., the author combines discounted cash flow methods values and real option models to value it. Alone, discounted cash flow (DCF) calculations are vulnerable to the assumptions of growth, cost of capital, and cash flows. But by integrating the real options approach with the DCF technique, one can value a new product in the highly regulated, risky and research‐intensive Biopharmaceutical industry. This article shows how to value a Biopharmaceutical product, tracked from discovery to market launch in a step‐by‐step manner. Improving over early real option models, this framework explicitly captures competition, speed of innovation, risk, financing need, the size of the market potential in valuing corporate innovation using a firm‐specific measure of risk and the industry‐wide value of growth operating cash flows. This framework shows how the risk of corporate innovation, which is not fully captured by the standard valuation models, is priced into the value of a firm's growth opportunity. The DCF approach permits top‐down estimation of the size of the industry‐wide growth opportunity that competing firms must race to capture, while the contingency‐claims technique allows bottom‐up incorporation of the firm's successful R&D investment and the timing of introduction of the new product to market. It also specifically prices the risk of innovation by modeling its two components: the consumer validation of technology and the expert validation of technology. Overall, it estimates the value contribution per share of a new product for the firm.  相似文献   

15.
During the past five years, Kimberly‐Clark (K‐C) has faced a familiar management challenge: How can senior managers bring the rigor and discipline used to make daily operating decisions to the uncertain and risky world of innovation? The challenge was particularly acute at K‐C because the company is well known for its reliance on Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), both measures that are widely believed to lead to undervaluation of projects with risky upside potential. This article discusses how and why K‐C adopted and now uses the real options approach to project evaluation and management. The authors also share some lessons learned during the adoption process, including how the company adapted the real options framework to its own circumstances and requirements. The K‐C experience shows that successful adoption rests on a number of factors that have less to do with the rigor or precision of quantitative models than with matters of corporate process and organizational design.  相似文献   

16.
In recent years, both practitioners and academics have argued that traditional discounted cash flow models do a poor job of capturing the value of the options embedded in many corporate actions. This paper shows how option pricing models used in valuing financial assets can be used to value three kinds of real options that are often built into corporate projects: the option to delay, the option to expand, and the option to abandon. As a number of examples in this paper suggest, corporate investments that would be rejected using conventional DCF analysis can sometimes be justified by the value of the strategic options they provide. As the illustrations also show, however, the pricing of real options is considerably more difficult than the pricing of financial options and adjustments must often be made to capture the complexity of real investments.  相似文献   

17.
OPTION EXERCISE GAMES: THE INTERSECTION OF REAL OPTIONS AND GAME THEORY   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
While the real options approach has proven useful in providing an analytical framework for analyzing the timing of investment decisions, a notable failure of the approach has been an almost complete lack of strategic considerations. In standard real options models, invest-ment (and exercise) strategies are for-mulated in isolation, without considering the potential impact of other firms' exercise strategies. This paper illustrates how the intersection of real options and game theory provides powerful new insights into the behavior of economic agents under uncertainty.
Introducing strategic considerations into the real options framework can lead to a rethinking of standard real option analysis. For example, one of-ten cited conclusion of the real options literature is the overturning of the standard capital budgeting rule of in-vesting immediately in any project with a positive NPV. Because the fu-ture value of the asset is uncertain, there may be significant benefits to deferring the investment until condi-tions prove even more favorable. But this result clearly depends on the lack of competitive access to the project. If firms fear preemption, then the option to wait becomes less valuable. For example, while the standard real op-tions models suggest that a real estate developer should wait until the devel-opment option is considerably "in the money," competition and the fear of preemption will likely force develop-ers to build much earlier.  相似文献   

18.
基于2002-2017年A股上市公司数据,利用面板固定效应回归分析方法,检验实体企业金融化行为.结果显示:实体企业金融化行为具有显著的逆周期效应,但受企业异质性影响,不同类型企业金融化行为逆周期效应具有差异性,属于轻资产、国有制、制造业以及非东部的企业,其金融化行为的逆周期效应较为突出.实体企业金融化行为会抑制固定资产及研发创新的投入,进而挤出实体资产收益.在经济周期不同阶段,实体企业金融化行为的潜在动机表现不同.在经济上行期,企业金融化是套利投资行为;在经济下行期,企业金融化可以起到平滑资金作用,但需防范实体企业过度金融化可能带来的"脱实向虚"风险.  相似文献   

19.
We investigate the implications of technological innovation and non-diversifiable risk on entrepreneurial entry and optimal portfolio choice. In a real options model where two risk-averse individuals strategically decide on technology adoption, we show that the impact of non-diversifiable risk on the option timing decision is ambiguous and depends on the frequency of technological change. Compared to the complete market case, non-diversifiable risk may accelerate or delay the optimal investment decision. Moreover, strategic considerations regarding technology adoption play a central role for the entrepreneur’s optimal portfolio choice in the presence of non-diversifiable risk.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号