Measuring equity market integration using uncorrelated information flows: Tokyo,London and New York

Equity markets do not pass all overnight information into prices instantly at the opening of trade. We adjust open-to-close return series for non-instantaneous information absorption and then use adjusted series to measure integration among three major equity markets. Because the adjusted daytime return series are uncorrelated, we can accurately measure the size, and identify the sources, of transmissions. Overnight news, as represented by foreign open-to-close returns, explains 13% of opening price variation (close-to-open returns) in New York, 14% in Tokyo and 30% in London. For New York and Tokyo, the largest influences come from the market that trades immediately prior (London and New York respectively) whereas opening price variation in London is linked closer with New York than Tokyo. Foreign volatility spillovers are also significant, and subject to asymmetric effects.     

Price Interactions in a Sequential Global Market: Evidence from the Cross-listed Stocks

In this paper, we investigate the pattern of dynamic interactions among the prices of those stocks that are cross-listed on the three major stock markets of the world, i.e. New York, London and Tokyo. Major findings are: first, regardless of the nationality of stocks, innovations in the 'home' market returns are always fed into the returns in the 'overseas' markets, with the former causing the latter in the Granger sense. However, innovations in the New York market returns of foreign stocks are fed back into their respective home markets, contributing to the price discovery there. Second, the 'succeeding' overseas market, which operates immediately after the home market, plays a dual-role: it conducts the home market innovations to the next-opening overseas market, as well as adds its own innovations. Third, the exchange rate changes substantially influence the overseas market returns, but not the home market returns. The exchange rates appear to play a role in the transmission mechanism mainly via the inter-market price parity.     

After-Hours Stock Prices and Post-Crash Hangovers

After-hours pricing in foreign equity markets of multiple-listed U.S. securities appeared to be efficient in predicting New York prices in the weeks immediately following the October 1987 crash but relatively uninformative in succeeding months. By contrast, daily changes in New York prices appear to be efficiently incorporated in after-hours trading on both the Tokyo and London exchanges throughout the sample period. This paper suggests that the asymmetry and temporal variations in cross-market correlations are consistent with rational investor behavior in equity markets with nonzero transaction costs and time-varying share price volatility.     

Bivariate Nonparametric Density Estimation of Stock Prices and Volume

This paper comprehensively investigates the joint movement of stock prices and trading volume of New York and Tokyo stock markets by undertaking nonparametric density estimation. Bivariate nonparametric density estimation has been reported as a powerful tool for revealing complicated relations between two variables. In application to finance, it is important to use a method robust for heavy-tailed densities, since the distributions of asset price changes are known to have heavy tails, and information about sudden and large price changes is contained in the tails. The empirical regularities found in this paper are mostly consistent with previous literature, but partially disagrees with the work of Gallant et al. (1992).     

Impact of stock market trading on currency market volatility spillovers

This research aims to detect the volatility linkages among various currencies during operating and non-operating hours of three major stock markets (Tokyo, London and New York) by employing bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model in selected currency pairs. In particular, the aim is to analyze whether the major stock markets have a differential impact on volatility linkages in currency markets. The results indicate that volatility linkages in intraday are far stronger then in daily results. One remarkable result is that rather than major currencies, some minor and exotic currencies play a leading role in volatility transmission during trading hours of major stock markets.     

Do bears and bulls swim across oceans? Market information transmission between greater China and the rest of the world

This study investigates returns and volatilities transmission across Greater China’s four emerging stock markets and three developed international markets, Tokyo, London, and New York. Using daily open and close price data from 1994 to 2001, we provide empirical evidence that the overnight returns on all the Greater China stock indices can be estimated by using information from at least one of the three developed markets’ daytime returns. The contemporaneous return spillovers are in general unidirectional from more advanced major international markets to the Chinese markets. However, split-sample analysis suggests that there is also evidence of bi-directional return spillovers after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find that there are no one-period lagged return spillover effects from the three advanced markets to the Chinese markets, except for Taiwan. Finally, Mainland China’s two stock markets are not affected by contemporaneous nor delayed “bad news”.     

Identifying Permanent and Temporary Components in Daily and Monthly Japanese Stock Prices

The purpose of this study is to analyze time series of daily and monthly values for the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) and stock price values for 15 companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Section 1 (TSE-I), to determine the contribution of permanent and temporary components to Japanese stock prices. The existence of temporary components in the price series would imply that Japanese stock returns are partially predictable. The method of canonical correlation is used to determine components common to each series and the persistence of each component series is evaluated by estimating the amount of dependence in the series. The results suggest that Japanese stock prices contain a small temporary component. The fractionally integrated ARIMA (ARFIMA) model is used to characterize both the component series and an estimate of the temporary component for each original price series. The contribution of the temporary component to the total variation of the price series estimated. We find that, in general, the temporary component accounts for less than 8% of the variation in the daily price series and from 5% to 15% of variation in the monthly price series, indicating that there may be a small amount of predictability in Japanese stock prices.     

Internationally cross-listed stock prices during overlapping trading hours: price discovery and exchange rate effects

We analyze exchange rates along with equity quotes for 3 German firms from New York (NYSE) and Frankfurt (XETRA) during overlapping trading hours to see where price discovery occurs and how stock prices adjust to an exchange rate shock. Findings include: (a) the exchange rate is exogenous with respect to the stock prices; (b) exchange rate innovations are more important in understanding the evolution of NYSE prices than XETRA prices; and (c) most (but not all) of the fundamental or random walk component of firm value is determined in Frankfurt.     

Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility

This article investigates empirically how returns and volatilitiesof stock indices are correlated between the Tokyo and New Yorkmarkets. Using intradaily data that define daytime and overnightreturns for both markets, we find that Tokyo (New York) daytimereturns are correlated with New York (Tokyo) overnight returns.We interpret this result as evidence that information revealedduring the trading hours of one market has a global impact onthe returns of the other market. In order to extract the globalfactor from the daytime returns of one market, we propose andestimate a signal extraction model with GARCH processes.     

(Unusual) weather and stock returns—I am not in the mood for mood: further evidence from international markets

This paper investigates the explanatory power of weather variables deviations in two leading international financial trading centres (New York and London) on 58 global stock indices over the period September 2000 to December 2013. The empirical results find that unusual deviations of weather variables from their monthly averages have a statistically significant effect on stock returns across global returns. The paper also attempts to explain these effects through the sales and energy prices mechanisms. The results provide strong support to both mechanisms.     

How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?

We examine round-the-clock international price discovery of gold among the major gold markets—New York, London and Shanghai during news-intensive and no-news time zones using one-minute data. Using GMM based parallel price discovery measure, we find global leadership of the US as New York gold futures lead across five time zones with 56% information share. New York/London (Nylon) timezone (51%) is the most informative trading session in sequential price discovery for all markets in 24-h. Our aggregate and disaggregate news analysis reveals that the US news surprises have a substantial and positive impact on its price discovery leadership while Eurozone news surprises have a negative impact and Chinese news have negligible impact. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, we find scheduled news with a large surprise index has a significant yet asymmetric impact as negative news triggers a strong reaction. The impact of news surprise is state-dependent and display sign-reversals during extreme uncertainty, adverse macroeconomic conditions and abnormal investor behaviour.     

Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market

We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology. A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature [Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C.L., 1999. Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end? In: Taylor, J.B., Woodford, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 1A. Elsevier, New York, pp. 65-148]. We find great interdependence between the interest rate setting and real stock prices. Real stock prices immediately fall by seven to nine percent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by 100 basis points. A stock price shock increasing real stock prices by one percent leads to an increase in the interest rate of close to 4 basis points.     

Transmission of movements in stock markets

The paper analyses the relationships between three stock markets: New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt. The non-simultaneity of the trading times in these three markets determines the results of cross-correlations and regressions with daily returns. To cope with this and other problems, an empirical model is proposed and estimated. This model allows the separation of the ability to influence and the sensitivity of the different markets, and New York is found to be the most influential market, with Tokyo the most sensitive.     

U.K. and U.S. trading of British cross-listed stocks: an intraday analysis of market integration

This article analyzes intraday patterns for U.K. and U.S. tradingof British cross-listed stocks. For each market, the intradaypatterns for these stocks closely resemble those of otherwisesimilar, non-cross listed stocks. There is a 2-hour period eachday when cross-listed stocks are traded both in New York andin London. This overlap is characterized by concentrated tradingas private information, originating in New York, gets incorporatedinto prices in both markets. Cross-border competition for orderflowtends to reduce already declining spreads in London. By contrast,New York specialists maintain     

Linkages among European and world stock markets

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983–1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market return's forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the world's two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency.     

Index futures arbitrage before and after the introduction of sixteenths on the NYSE

We find that market efficiency increased and the arbitrage link between index futures and the stock market strengthened after June 24, 1997, when the New York Stock Exchange reduced the minimum change for stock prices and quotes from an eighth to a sixteenth of a dollar. There has been a substantial increase in the number of arbitrage trades reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) since the reduction in the minimum price increment. The average number of stocks traded and the average dollar amount underlying each arbitrage trade increases and decreases, respectively. The average index futures mispricing error (MPE) that triggers arbitrage is lower and reverts to zero more quickly.     

Opening prices on the New York Stock Exchange

The prices of opening transactions on the New York Stock Exchange are determined quite differently from prices of subsequent transactions. This paper tests the null hypothesis that opening prices are as representative of contemporaneous equilibrium stock values as subsequent intra-day transactions prices. With one possible exception, there is no basis for rejecting this hypothesis, despite the very different trading mechanisms used in opening trades and intra-day trades.     

中国艺术品投资收益:离岸与在岸市场的特征和互动

文物艺术品既是一个国家的历史印记和文化瑰宝,也是情感资产和动产。本文基于2000-2017年全球艺术品核心市场——北京、香港、纽约和伦敦核心拍卖行中国书画的微观数据,使用特征价格法构建全球中国艺术品市场价格指数,展示全球中国艺术品拍卖市场发展的全貌,同时创新性地使用重复交易数据探讨离岸和在岸中国艺术品市场投资特征和互动关系。研究表明:北京和香港市场作为中国艺术品最大的在岸和离岸拍卖市场价格相互联动,走势基本一致;艺术品财务收益和精神回报是艺术品投资收藏和消费的主要原因,不同市场间财务收益和风险分散的差异是艺术品市场资产配置和资金流动的动力;纽约和伦敦市场中国艺术品投资收益率低于北京和香港,香港是全球中国艺术品投资收益率最高的地区,重复交易中的北京-香港交易策略占优,离岸香港市场得天独厚的环境优势使香港中国艺术品市场未来发展前景可期。     

顺义谋划国际会展名城之路

一个以新能源的科研、生产和示范为主题,在国内处于领先地位的新能源和可再生能源基地有望在北京八达岭经济开发区落成。记者了解到,八达岭经济开发区在充分利用延庆县资源优势的基础上,已明确提出建设新能源产业园的发展规划。新能源产业园位于延庆县     

An Examination of Changes in Specialists' Posted Price Schedules

New York Stock Exchange specialists disseminate informationto market participants by displaying price schedules consistingof bid prices, ask prices, bid depths, and ask depths. We examinehow specialists update these price schedules in a simultaneousequations model. We find that changes in the best prices anddepths on the limit order book have a significant impact onthe posted price schedule, while the effects of transactionsand order activity are secondary. Furthermore, we show thatspecialists revise prices and depths differently, but find noevidence that they revise the price schedule in response tochanges in inventory.