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1.
The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust. 相似文献
2.
This paper analyzes the importance of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in explaining U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations, and establishes new stylized facts. The novelty of our empirical analysis is that we jointly consider both monetary and fiscal policy, whereas the existing literature only focuses on either one or the other. Our main findings are twofold: fiscal shocks are relatively more important in explaining medium cycle fluctuations whereas monetary policy shocks are relatively more important in explaining business cycle fluctuations, and failing to recognize that both monetary and fiscal policy simultaneously affect macroeconomic variables might incorrectly attribute the fluctuations to the wrong source. 相似文献
3.
We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics. 相似文献
4.
This paper constructs a two‐country core–periphery New Keynesian model of a currency union to address the interaction between the objectives of regionally directed fiscal policy constrained by a single currency and the aggregate use of fiscal policy in face of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on policy interest rates. We identify an optimal path of aggregate and relative fiscal policy responses to a negative region‐specific demand shock. Our results show that (i) in a monetary union, the optimal policy response to an asymmetric reduction in demand concentrated in the periphery always entails a relative shift of fiscal expenditure toward the worse‐affected regions, (ii) though no aggregate fiscal response is required outside the ZLB, and (iii) optimal union‐wide fiscal policy is expansionary at the ZLB. Therefore, optimal policy always entails an expansion in the periphery at the ZLB, but the optimal fiscal response in the core regions can be either expansionary or contractionary depending on the parameters of the model. However, (iv) fiscal expansion in the core is warranted if the periphery cannot implement an expansion due to constraints on public spending. 相似文献
5.
Some financial stress events lead to macroeconomic downturns, while others appear to be isolated to financial markets. We identify financial stress regimes using a model that explicitly links financial variables to macro‐economic outcomes. The stress regimes are identified using an unbalanced panel of financial variables with an embedded method for variable selection. Our identified stress regimes are associated with corporate credit tightening and with NBER recessions. An exogenous deterioration in our financial conditions index has strong negative effects in economic activity, and negative amplification effects on inflation in the stress regime. These results are obtained with a novel factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model with smooth‐transition regimes (FASTVAR). 相似文献
6.
LUIGI PACIELLO 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2011,43(8):1663-1684
This paper studies U.S. inflation adjustment speed to aggregate technology shocks and to monetary policy shocks in a medium size Bayesian vector autoregression model. According to the model estimated on the 1959–2007 sample, inflation adjusts much faster to aggregate technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks. These results are robust to different identification assumptions and measures of aggregate prices. However, by separately estimating the model over the pre‐ and post‐1980 periods, this paper further shows that inflation adjusts much faster to technology shocks than to monetary policy shocks in the post‐1980 period, but not in the pre‐1980 period. 相似文献
7.
We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro-model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. We document the surprisingly large and consequential changes in model properties that occurred during the period from July 1996 to November 2003 and compute optimal Taylor-type rules for each vintage. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the efficacy of purportedly optimal policy rules should not be taken on faith. We also find that previous findings that simple rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. 相似文献
8.
Inflation and inequality 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Stefania Albanesi 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(4):1088-1114
Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households. 相似文献
9.
Richard Blundell 《Fiscal Studies》2009,30(1):31-38
This paper concerns the likely impact of a temporary VAT cut stimulus policy on consumer demand in the UK. It suggests that around 75 per cent of the VAT reduction will be passed on to consumers and that consumers will react by maintaining their expenditure levels and therefore increasing their demand for consumption goods. The uncertainty caused by the downturn makes this a more muted impact than we might have hoped, especially on the demand for durable goods. Nevertheless, it is a substantive impact. In general, the uncertainty caused by the recession will tend to reduce the impact of any stimulus package. It is also argued that synchronising the subsequent rise with the economic upturn is critical. 相似文献
10.
Institutions that aim to constrain policy discretion in order to promote sound fiscal policies are once again at the forefront of the policy debate. Interest in fiscal councils – independent watchdogs active in the public debate – has grown rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we present the first cross‐country dataset summarising key characteristics of fiscal councils among International Monetary Fund members. The data document a surge in the number of fiscal councils since the 2008–09 economic and financial crisis, and also illustrate that well‐designed fiscal councils are associated with stronger fiscal performance and better macro‐economic and budgetary forecasts. Key features of effective fiscal councils include operational independence from politics, the provision or public assessment of budgetary forecasts, a strong presence in the public debate and the monitoring of compliance with fiscal policy rules. 相似文献
11.
Robert J. Tetlow 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2007,54(5):1397-1405
This is a discussion of the paper “Simple versus Optimal Rules as Guides to Policy” by Brock, Durlauf, Nason and Rondina (BDNR) presented in November 2006 at Carnegie-Mellon University under the auspices of the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. I review the authors’ arguments, present a few suggestions for extension and outline where I think at least one strand of the literature should be heading. 相似文献
12.
ADAM HALE SHAPIRO 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2008,40(4):627-666
It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with generalized method of moments using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the firm's price-decision problem. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant toward the model. 相似文献
13.
Fiscal rules are necessary to protect monetary policy from the consequences of unsustainable or active fiscal policy for inflation. Monetary unions, such as the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), require even stronger fiscal rules to avoid free riding by regional fiscal authorities on the common monetary policy. By contrast, in a fiscal federation, the federal government internalises the effect of active regional policies on the overall price level. Federal fiscal policy contributes to price stability either by enforcing fiscal rules or by adjusting its own stance. Following Canzoneri, Cumby and Diba (2001), we test whether federal and regional governments in Germany behave in an active or passive way. We find evidence of a spillover effect of unsustainable policies on other regions. The German federal government offsets the effect on the price level by running passive policies. The Bundesbank's prime objective of price stability is therefore endorsed by fiscal policy. The results have implications for the regulation of fiscal policies in the EMU. 相似文献
14.
ROBERT G. KING YANG K. LU ERNESTO S. PASTÉN 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2008,40(8):1625-1666
The idea that monetary policy is principally about “managing expectations” has taken hold in central banks around the world. Discussions of expectations management by central bankers, academics and by financial market participants frequently also include the idea that central bank credibility is imperfect. We adapt a familiar macroeconomic model so as to discuss key concepts in the area of expectations management. Our work also exemplifies a model construction approach to analyzing the dynamics of announcements, actions, and credibility that we think makes feasible a wide range of future investigations concerning the management of expectations. 相似文献
15.
While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature. 相似文献
16.
We explore the impact of fiscal austerity on three different dimensions of public opinion in 26 European Union countries (consumer confidence, attitude toward national authorities, and European institutions) on annual data between 1997 and 2017. Our main finding is that the independent effect of a tighter fiscal stance on public opinion is not large and, when present, seems to closely follow the impact of fiscal austerity on economic activity. Our results therefore are inconsistent with the view that fiscal austerity necessarily implies a negative effect on public opinion and a decline in popularity of national and European institutions. 相似文献
17.
There is widespread evidence that pro‐cyclical fiscal policies have been prevalent in developing countries and often in some industrial nations. It is therefore surprising that, in contrast to the wealth of studies on the sources of pro‐cyclical policy, potential consequences of such seemingly suboptimal policies have been largely ignored in the existing literature. By utilising a comprehensive set of indicators from 114 countries for 1950–2010, we aim to address the following important question: does it matter whether a country adopts a pro‐cyclical fiscal policy stance rather than a counter‐cyclical one? Our results produce a resounding ‘yes’ to this question. We find that fiscally pro‐cyclical countries have lower rates of economic growth, higher rates of output volatility and higher rates of inflation. 相似文献
18.
Although it has been well established that financial volatility is related to news and macroeconomic shocks, less emphasis has been placed on the importance of underlying economic and political stability. In this paper we study the behavior of consol returns since 1729 and identify a greater-than-50% decline in volatility from the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 until the First World War. News events and macroeconomic variables cannot account for this extended period of reduced volatility. Underlying political stability under Pax Britannica seems to be a more likely explanation. 相似文献
19.
This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal decentralisation, focusing in particular on the impact of the level of income on the level of fiscal decentralisation. Various measures of fiscal decentralisation, several of them novel in this context, are employed in a cross‐country econometric model to test established and more recent hypotheses. Paying careful attention to variable measurement, model specification and sample coverage, the results suggest that there are significant relationships between fiscal decentralisation and income, as well as a range of other factors. However, these relationships may be more complicated than previously reported. For the entire large sample of countries, and for the OECD subsample, a positive relationship between income and decentralisation is found. This corroborates the results found in earlier studies. However, for the middle‐ and lower‐income nations, higher income is found to be associated with less decentralisation. 相似文献
20.
Kent Smetters 《Journal of Monetary Economics》2006,53(7):1493-1508
The U.S. Social Security trust fund currently invests in government bonds. Investing some of it instead in equities while continuing to pay Social Security benefits under existing rules would alter—potentially improve—the sharing of financial risks across non-trading generations. This paper shows that the same risk sharing can be achieved without direct government ownership of equities if instead the government places a linear and symmetric tax on risky private capital returns. This equivalence is very robust and holds even if some agents are endogenously borrowing constrained. 相似文献