资产价格稳定应纳入我国货币政策目标吗?——来自1999-2010年的经验证据

金融危机爆发前,理论界和政策制定者对货币政策与资产价格关系的主流认识是反对把资产价格稳定纳入货币政策目标,中央银行只需在泡沫破灭后通过下调利率进行干预,然而,历次国别或全球金融危机都充分暴露了主流认识存在的诸多缺陷。因此,本文运用我国1999至2010年的年度数据,实证检验了资产价格对货币流动性的影响程度。结果表明,资产价格上涨与货币流动性增加正相关,因此,我国中央银行应考虑将资产价格稳定纳入货币政策目标,逆经济风向行事,实行更为对称的货币政策。     

资产价格与货币政策传导机制的关系研究

在当前全球金融危机的大背景下,资产价格波动对货币政策的影响再次引起学界的关注。文章讨论了资产价格与货币需求的关系、资产价格和货币政策最终目标两者之间的关系,以及资产价格在货币政策传导过程中对消费和投资的影响。最后,探讨了资产价格波动对中国中央银行制定货币政策的启示。     

资产价格与货币政策传导机制的关系研究

在当前全球金融危机的大背景下,资产价格波动对货币政策的影响再次引起学界的关注。文章讨论了资产价格与货币需求的关系、资产价格和货币政策最终目标两者之间的关系,以及资产价格在货币政策传导过程中对消费和投资的影响。最后,探讨了资产价格波动对中国中央银行制定货币政策的启示。     

货币政策、宏观审慎政策与资产价格

长期以来,主要发达国家的货币政策在对待资产价格泡沫的问题上一直是"善意忽视",而此次国际金融危机后,资产价格泡沫崩溃带来的严重后果令危机的发源地美国开始重新审视货币政策与资产价格的关系,采取货币政策抑制资产价格泡沫逐渐形成新的主流共识。但由于货币政策在应对资产价格泡沫上存在着诸多限制,因此,越来越多的经济学家提倡货币政策联合宏观审慎政策协调应对资产价格泡沫。那么,货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调能够更好地应对资产价格泡沫吗?二者在应对资产价格泡沫上需要哪些合作机制?效果又会如何?本文将对这些问题进行探讨。     

关于资产价格与货币政策问题的一些思考

在全球金融危机的大背景下,货币政策是否应该对资产价格膨胀作出反应引起关注。本文对相关理论进行了归纳,并从通货膨胀机理的角度对资产价格与货币政策的关系进行了探讨,提出了建立和完善更加关注资产价格的货币政策框架的建议。     

货币政策对资产价格的冲击——基于我国利率、房价和股价互动关系的经验研究

近年来货币政策与资产价格的关系受到了很多学者的关注。本文在研究我国利率、房价和股价互动关系的基础上,分析了货币政策对资产价格的冲击效应。结果表明我国的利率货币政策对房价和股价两大资产价格的冲击并不显著,同时支持我国货币政策应关注通货膨胀而不是资产价格的国际主流观点。     

货币政策对资产价格的冲击——基于我国利率、房价和股价互动关系的经验研究

近年来货币政策与资产价格的关系受到了很多学者的关注.本文在研究我国利率、房价和股价互动关系的基础上,分析了货币政策对资产价格的冲击效应.结果表明我国的利率货币政策对房价和股价两大资产价格的冲击并不显著,同时支持我国货币政策应关注通货膨胀而不是资产价格的国际主流观点.     

后金融危机时代货币政策对资产价格的影响研究——基于中国数据的脉冲响应分析

本文利用金融危机爆发以来的货币供应量和房产价格指数、上证A股指数等变量,通过向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数建立了资产价格对货币政策冲击的反应模型,用实证分析的方法分析了货币政策工具变量的冲击导致的资产价格变动的特点.总结了后金融危机时代货币政策对资产价格和大众投资行为影响的规律,为今后及时准确地调整我国的货币政策,实现我国资产价格稳定和金融市场平稳较快增长提出参考性的政策建议.     

我国资产价格泡沫与货币政策

研究资产价格与货币政策的关系是一个重大研究课题。本文试图对资产价格泡沫现状与危害、资产价格泡沫形成原因及在资产泡沫下的货币政策操作问题作一探讨。     

货币政策目标、资产价格波动与最优货币政策

货币政策目标的实现程度是判定货币政策优劣的标准。通过建立中央银行的决策模型,推导出忽略和考虑资产价格的最优货币供应量反应函数,并据此对中国不同货币政策目标下的宏观经济运行进行模拟,以认识货币政策目标对资产价格波动与最优货币政策之间关系的影响,结果表明最优货币政策是否应该对资产价格的波动反应取决于货币政策目标。因此,应充分重视货币政策目标的取向,同时加强对最优货币政策目标确定的研究。     

Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis

This lecture examines how the recent global financial crisis changes our thinking about how monetary policy should be conducted. It starts with a discussion of the science and practice of monetary policy before the crisis and then uses the lessons from the crisis to argue how the practice of monetary policy should be rethought along six dimensions: flexible inflation targeting, response to asset price bubbles, dichotomy between monetary policy and financial stability policy, risk management and gradualism, fiscal dominance, and forward guidance.     

Monetary policy rules,asset prices and adaptive learning

Following the damaging real effects of asset price fluctuations over the recent financial crisis, the debate on the appropriate role of such prices in a monetary policy context has gained renewed attention. This paper argues that a direct monetary policy response to asset prices is not desirable under common instrumental rate rules. To illustrate this point, we build an adaptive learning model, that extends existing learning models in monetary policy, most notably, Bullard and Mitra (2002). The result remains valid in a context with heterogeneous beliefs and is robust to an optimal monetary policy rule including a weight on asset prices.     

资产价格波动与金融不稳定性:传导机制与政策选择

美国次贷危机之后,资产价格对经济金融稳定的影响受到广泛关注。本文首先指出,金融的不稳定性很大程度上根源于资产价格周期性的波动;然后从银行信贷、市场流动性、信息不对称以及非理性行为四个方面具体阐述了资产价格波动对金融稳定的影响机制;最后提出应对资产价格波动的政策建议,包括货币政策应该关注而非盯住资产价格、关注资产价格背后的信用扩张而非资产价格本身、监管部门应加快构建宏观审慎监管框架等。     

Risk premia,asset price bubbles,and monetary policy

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs to study the effects of monetary policy on prices, risk premia, asset price bubbles, and financial stability. We propose a new framework for monetary policy with respect to bubbles. Because bubble risk premia arise from an interaction between disagreements among investors and dynamic trading constraints, under a non-accommodative monetary policy, liquidity adjusted risk and bubble risk premia increase. What matters for policy is the trading constrained fraction/mass of agents that disagree about fundamentals (i.e. optimists/pessimists). Accommodative policy can lead to a larger fraction of trading constrained agents that disagree, larger bubbles, and increased systemic risk. An implication of our results is that accommodative monetary policy in response to the Covid-19 crisis does not increase systemic risk due to asset price bubbles, as long as the policy keeps inflation under control.     

再析美国金融危机前的利率政策

全球金融危机与美国货币政策的变化密不可分,从低利率货币信贷扩张的流动性过剩到高利率的流动性紧缩,使宏观经济产生剧烈波动,前期低利率带来过剩的流动性,后期利率的提高造成巨量房地产泡沫的破灭。让美联储无视资产泡沫的原因是美联储货币政策一贯秉持的"泰勒规则"指导原则没有纳入资产价格因子,致使美联储货币政策调控失误。     

The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone

This paper examines the real effects of financial stress in the Euro-zone, using two identification strategies based on a Bayesian Structural VAR and a Sign-Restriction VAR. As expansionary monetary policy has been blamed to have fuelled asset price bubble, it is important to assess the macroeconomic impact of both a financial stress shock and a monetary policy shock. We find that unexpected variation in financial stress conditions plays an important role in explaining output fluctuations and, therefore, demands an aggressive response by the monetary authority to stabilize output. This, in turn, indicates a preference shift from inflation targeting. We also show that a monetary policy contraction strongly deteriorates financial stress conditions. As a result, rapid credit growth due to a long period of low interest rates possibly contributed to an increase in asset prices and encouraged unsustainable demand growth as observed in the recent financial crisis.     

资产价格与货币政策：一个理论综述

该文对近几年国内外学术界对资产价格如何影响实体经济,货币政策是否应该考虑资产价格,如何将资产价格纳入到货币政策指标体系中等问题的研究进行了理论综述。文章认为,资产价格变动会通过财富效应,托宾Q值效应,金融加速器效应和预期效应等影响实体经济活动,但学者们对货币政策是否应该考虑资产价格以及如何将资产价格纳入到货币政策指标体系中始终存在不同看法。     

International house price cycles,monetary policy and credit

We evaluate three alternative predictors of house price corrections: anticipated tightenings of monetary policy, deviations of house prices from fundamentals, and rapid credit growth. A new cross-country measure of monetary policy expectations based on an international term structure model with time-varying risk premiums is constructed. House price overvaluation is estimated via an asset pricing model. The variables are incorporated into a panel logit regression model that estimates the likelihood of a large house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The results show that corrections are predicted by increases in the market’s forecast of higher policy rates. The estimated degree of house price overvaluation also contains significant information about subsequent price reversals. In contrast to the financial crisis literature, credit growth is less important. All of these variables help forecast recessions.     

关于我国资产价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究

随着金融市场深化与资本市场发展,资产价格波动对货币政策提出新的挑战。该文在回顾相关理论研究的基础上,从完善资产价格统计范围的角度,对我国资产价格与货币供应量的实证关系进行了研究。结果发现,资产价格变动确会对货币政策中介目标产生影响,且不同资产价格对不同层次货币供应量影响不一。建议密切关注资产价格,提升货币政策的前瞻性。