首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到10条相似文献,搜索用时 156 毫秒
1.
The effects of inflation are worked out for a small open economy with Cash-in-Advance (CIA) constraints on bond purchases. If all transactions are subject to CIA constraints, an increase in the inflation rate will reduce savings, bringing about a current account deficit, while the capital stock will be unaffected. If investment is not subject to CIA constraints, an increase in the inflation rate will encourage investment and reduce savings, bringing about a current account deficit. Numerical evaluation of the model gives rise to falls in real interest rates that are in line with recent empirical findings.  相似文献   

2.
German labor market reforms in the 1990s and 2000s are generally believed to have driven the large increase in the dispersion of current account balances in the Euro Area. We investigate this hypothesis quantitatively. We develop a three‐region open economy New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions from which we derive robust sign restrictions for wage bargaining and matching efficiency shocks which we term wage moderation shocks. We impose these restrictions on a Global VAR consisting of Germany and eight EMU countries to identify a wage moderation shock in Germany. Our results show that, although the German current account was significantly affected by wage moderation shocks, their contribution to European current account imbalances was negligible. We conclude that the German labor market reforms cannot be the lone driver of European imbalances.  相似文献   

3.
I analyze a model with moral hazard and limited enforcement in a small open economy. I find that when state contingent contracting is allowed adding the moral hazard friction improves the model's predictions along several dimensions. First, it justifies why non-contingent debt is an optimal way to finance an emerging economy. Second, it explains the limited consumption risk-sharing and high, volatile and counter-cyclical interest rates. Third, it generates realistic crisis-like dynamics in which capital inflows are brought to a halt and interest rates sky-rocket. The model also has a strong internal propagation mechanism.  相似文献   

4.
The stimulus packages announced to deal with the economic slowdown has increased the fiscal deficit of many countries and it spurred the debate on the possible effect of these fiscal shocks on other economic variable especially the current account. In this study, we examine the effect of fiscal deficit on current account of India using the VAR as well as the Structural VAR (SVAR) analysis. Our analysis indicates that the fiscal deficit is positively affecting the current account deficit in India, as predicted by the twin deficit hypothesis. Therefore, the historical data indicates the presence of the twin deficits phenomenon in Indian context.  相似文献   

5.
The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The conduct of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the structure of the economy in the UK have changed over the post-WWII period. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and financial markets using a time-varying VAR augmented with the factors from the yield curve. There is evidence of a great moderation in the dynamics of the yield curve, with the factors being persistent and volatile before the introduction of inflation targeting in 1992 but becoming stable afterwards. The introduction of time-variation in the Factor Augmented VAR improves the fit of the model and results in expectation hypothesis consistent yields that are close to actual yields, even at long maturities. Monetary policy shocks had a significant impact on the volatility of inflation, output and the policy rate over the pre-inflation targeting era, but their contribution has been negligible under the current regime. Shocks to the level of the yield curve accounted for a large fraction of inflation variability only before 1992.  相似文献   

6.
This paper establishes that the closing method matters when the small open economy model is used for welfare analysis. The differences stem from the impact of the closing method on debt dynamics. When the ad-hoc parameters are set so that the current account volatility is controlled for across models, the welfare properties of versions with portfolio adjustment costs (PAC) and debt elastic interest rates (DEIR) are significantly different from the version with an endogenous discount factor (EDF). Nevertheless, this outcome is an artifact of an unrealistically dispersed distribution of the net foreign assets under PAC and DEIR, and can disappear under alternative calibrations of the ad-hoc parameters. In this sense, a seemingly innocuous application of PAC and DEIR versions may imply spurious results regarding welfare especially if a highly volatile economy is studied. Under commonly used functional forms, the spuriousness of welfare implications is found to be more radical under DEIR than PAC.  相似文献   

7.
Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%.  相似文献   

8.
Many intertemporal open economy macro models imply a theory of consumption smoothing channels; thus we build an empirical model to analyze the intertemporal smoothing role of saving components (fixed investments, inventories and trade balance) through the use of VAR impulse responses to different types of shocks. We find that for the OECD countries the bulk of intertemporal smoothing has been carried out domestically, via gross fixed investments and inventories, but the trade balance has also played a relevant – albeit volatile – smoothing role. We also characterize the dynamic behavior of each component: the trade balance and inventories are mostly used as short-run smoothing tools while fixed investment provides more and more smoothing over time. We can also address some empirical puzzles, such as the “excess sensitivity of investment” anomaly (Glick, R., Rogoff, K., 1995. Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account. Journal of Monetary Economics, 35, 159–192) and the “saving-investment correlation puzzle” (Feldstein, M., Horioka, C., 1980. Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 90, 314–329).  相似文献   

9.
本轮金融危机爆发前,美国债务增加与经济增长并存。经济增长的重要动力是资产价格泡沫下的过度信贷消费,巨大的消费使得公、私储蓄率系统性下降,在投资率上升的情况下造成其经常项目赤字,而美元本位给了美国用资本项目顺差来平衡经常项目赤字的便利,华尔街的金融衍生债券成为填平美国经常项目赤字的重要手段。当双赤字状态无法延续时,美国以危机形式和货币贬值形式抖落其负债包袱。牙买加体系下的"国际经济双循环"结构注定危机的发展是发散而非收敛的。这种充分利用美元本位机制,靠信贷促进消费、靠消费带动经济增长的消费驱动型经济增长模式走到了极端,到了不可持续的程度,应尽快对这种经济增长模式和国际收支格局进行调整。  相似文献   

10.
This paper investigates the optimal exchange intervension strategy for a small open economy in which both the domestic price level and domestic real GNP are endogenous, with the authority's objective being to stabilize a function involving both these variables. A special feature of the underlying macro model is that real balances are productive. Ultimately, this will mean that aggregate supply is sensitive to nominal interest rates. Additionally, both expectations and the intervention policy are designed to exploit the fact that financial market data, such as exchange and interest rates, are observable on a fairly current basis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, optimal intervention will usually require accentuating, not moderating, current exchange rate movements.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号