宽松货币政策难振世界经济

世界经济遭受国际金融危机重创并陷入低迷,许多经济体都试图通过持续宽松的货币政策刺激经济增长。美联储自国际金融危机以来已先后多次实施量化宽松货币政策,频繁通过扩大购债规模向市场注入流动性;欧洲中央银行长期维持较低的基准利率,并启动欧洲版量化宽松政策——直接货币交易计划(OMT);日本为应对经济不景气和长期存在的通货紧缩,长期施行"零利率"政策,向市场空投货币,促使货币竞争性贬值,改善国际贸易条件。     

当前输入型通货膨胀的成因及其对策

自国际金融危机爆发以来,以美国为首的中心国充分利用国别货币充当世界货币的有利条件,一再实施量化宽松货币政策,     

量化宽松政策的溢出效应分析

摘要：本文探讨了与美联储及其货币政策相关的四个问题,包括量化宽松政策对新兴市场国家的影响、美联储在为国际金融市场提供流动性方面的作用、量化宽松政策与货币操纵以及国际贸易与国际资本管制等,并提出新兴市场国家应通过政策调整应对量化宽松政策、增加对国际货币基金组织的资金投入及推动双边投资和自由贸易谈判等政策建议。     

谁诱发了亚洲加息热潮

在后金融危机时代,许多业内人士和专家学者都在思辨危机所暴露出来的深层次问题。如国际费币体系的缺陷．美国第二轮量化宽松货币政策所引发赣兴市场国家的通胀和加息热潮．欧洲债务危机如何化解……面对这些问题．国际社会关于构建国际赁币额秩序。进一步发挥特别提款权作用,建立稳定、可靠、基础广泛的国际储备货币体系。加强国际金融监管与合...     

美国量化宽松货币政策对我国的影响及其对策

为了应对金融危机,美国先后两次推出了量化宽松货币政策,通过创造定量的货币来实现较为宽松的货币流动性。在经济全球化的今天,美国货币政策的一举一动都将对世界各国产生重大影响。我国作为快速发展的新兴经济实体,很容易受到国际资本的追捧,美国量化宽松货币政策将对我国经济持续健康发展产生多方面的影响。     

2014年须警惕美国量宽政策的退出

2014年,国际市场和世界经济格局变化中的最大看点,是美国退出量化宽松货币政策（QE）。美国历经了本次国际金融危机以及5年多的恢复调整后,各主要经济指标已达到甚至超过了危机前的水平,退出量化宽松货币政策已是必然趋势.     

美国量化宽松货币政策对我国股票市场的影响

金融危机后,出于稳定经济和金融市场的目的,美联储先后实施了两轮量化宽松的货币政策。针对美联储量化宽松货币政策效果的争论在学界并没有取得一致的结论。鉴于美元的国际储备货币地位,美联储"不负责任"的货币政策必然通过多种渠道对其他国家的资产价格和实体经济产生影响。本文通过事件法分析法对美联储货币政策的公告效应进行了检验,结论表明美联储量化宽松的货币政策通过公告效应对我国股票市场产生了影响。     

日美两国量化宽松货币政策的比较

日本是最早采用量化宽松货币政策的经济强国,比较日美两国的量化宽松货币政策有助于理解美国当前的量化宽松货币政策.有鉴于此,本文在分别介绍日本和美国量化宽松货币政策的推出背景、具体操作和政策效果的基础上,分析指出与日本相比,美国量化宽松货币政策不仅关注货币供应量,而且更加侧重对资产进行结构性调整,但目前效果不甚理想,且对全球造成较大负面影响.     

通胀预期管理国际经验及其启示

2008年国际金融危机发生后,各国为应对危机纷纷采取非常规的货币政策,以美联储为代表的量化宽松货币政策造成全球范围内流动性过剩.我国为应对危机也采取了积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,内外因素导致我国通胀压力凸显.除了货币因素、大宗商品的输入性影响、劳动力成本上涨等因素外,公众通胀预期对通胀本身的影响也不容忽视.本文...     

美国量化宽松货币政策的退出及其影响

一、美国量化宽松货币政策的退出（一）量化宽松政策概述
　　2007年全球金融危机爆发后,美国、英国和欧元区国家采用了量化宽松货币政策（QE）。量化宽松货币政策是非传统的货币政策,当传统的货币政策失效时,中央银行可以使用QE政策工具,比如,从商业银行和其他私人机构那里购买一定数量的金融资产,提高金融资产的价格,增加流通中的货币数量。     

The effects of U.S. quantitative easing on South Africa

This paper investigates the impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on the economy of South Africa, particularly during the period of quantitative easing and thereafter from 2009 to 2018. A VAR model, including South Africa’s inflation, output, a stock market index, exchange rate, and South Africa’s policy rate is examined to determine the impact of the Federal Reserve’s actions. Our results show that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs had only slight overall effects on South Africa’s economy. However, the way monetary policy is measured appears to have important effects for studies of international monetary spillovers as the results differ depending on the type of monetary policy measure used.     

Financial risks,monetary policy in the QE era,and regulation

At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.     

Unconventional monetary policies and the corporate bond market

The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and simulate monetary policies as shocks to the Treasury yield curve. We find that none of the policies can persistently lower corporate spreads, and that operation twist is the only policy capable of lowering corporate yields. This latter finding can be accounted for by the operation twist’s ability to keep the monetary base constant and, therefore, to flatten the riskless yield curve without generating inflationary expectations.     

Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy

This paper assesses the global spillovers from identified US monetary policy shocks in a global VAR model. US monetary policy generates sizable output spillovers to the rest of the world, which are larger than the domestic effects in the US for many economies. The magnitude of spillovers depends on the receiving country's trade and financial integration, de jure financial openness, exchange rate regime, financial market development, labour market rigidities, industry structure, and participation in global value chains. The role of these country characteristics for the spillovers often differs across advanced and non-advanced economies and also involves non-linearities. Furthermore, economies that experience larger spillovers from conventional US monetary policy also displayed larger downward revisions of their growth forecasts in spring 2013 when the Federal Reserve upset markets by discussing tapering off quantitative easing. The results of this paper suggest that policymakers could mitigate their economies' vulnerability to US monetary policy by fostering trade integration as well as domestic financial market development, increasing the flexibility of exchange rates, and reducing frictions in labour markets. Other policies – such as inhibiting financial integration, industrialisation and participation in global value chains – might mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy, but are likely to reduce long-run growth.     

量化宽松货币政策的退出策略

去年此时,正值全球金融海啸爆发之时.随着各国纷纷实施所谓量化宽松货币政策,向金融体系甚至经济体系注入大量的流动性.     

The spillovers,interactions, and (un)intended consequences of monetary and regulatory policies

Have bank regulatory policies and unconventional monetary policies—and any possible interactions—been a factor behind the recent “deglobalisation” in cross-border bank lending? To test this hypothesis, we use bank-level data from the UK—a country at the heart of the global financial system. Our results suggest that increases in microprudential capital requirements tend to reduce international bank lending and some forms of unconventional monetary policy can amplify this effect. Specifically, the UK׳s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) significantly amplified the effects of increased capital requirements on cross-border lending. Quantitative easing did not appear to have a similar effect and countries with stronger prudential capital regulations were partially insulated against the effects of these changes in UK policy. We find that this interaction between microprudential regulations and the FLS can explain roughly 30% of the contraction in aggregate UK cross-border bank lending between mid-2012 and end-2013, corresponding to around 10% of the global contraction in cross-border lending. This suggests that unconventional monetary policy designed to support domestic lending can have the unintended consequence of reducing foreign lending.     

Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows

We employ a structural global VAR model to analyze whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks, identified through changes in the central bank’s balance sheet, have an impact on financial and economic conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we study whether international capital flows are an important channel of shock transmission. We find that an expansionary policy shock significantly increases portfolio flows from the U.S. to EMEs for almost two quarters, accompanied by a persistent movement in real and financial variables in recipient countries. Moreover, EMEs on average respond to the shock with an easing of their own monetary policy stance. The findings appear to be independent of heterogeneous country characteristics like the underlying exchange rate arrangement, the quality of institutions, or the degree of financial openness.     

International monetary policy transmission through banks in small open economies

This paper studies the international transmission of monetary policy through banks in small open economies using the examples of Switzerland and Canada. We assess the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy for Switzerland and the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy for Canada. In both country cases, we focus on the international bank lending and the international portfolio channel, which make opposing predictions about how monetary policy transmits internationally through banks. Our results on the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy through banks in Switzerland are consistent with a role for the international portfolio channel, but we find no evidence for the traditional international bank lending channel. The results on the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy in Canada suggest that foreign lending by Canadian banks is affected through both channels, which work as predicted and largely balance each other.     

美国量化宽松货币政策对中国溢出效应研究——基于贸易渠道分析

基于2008年10月~2014年3月的30个工业行业出口面板数据,运用FGLS方法,根据不同工业行业要素密集度考量美国量化宽松货币政策对我国工业出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策通过人民币汇率对我国资本密集型、劳动密集型和技术密集型行业的出口呈现出显著负面影响,通过国际大宗商品价格指数对我国劳动密集型和技术密集型行业出口产生显著负面影响,美国实际工业产出对我国三类工业行业出口呈现出显著正面影响。