中国商业银行成本效率SFA方法的实证研究

自中国2001年12月加入世界贸易组织后，中国的金融市场逐步地开放，外资银行逐步进入中国市场，金融市场的开放对中国商业银行的效率必定带来一定的影响。本文采用随机前沿方法，针对我国10家商业银行2001—2007年的数据进行分析，测度我国商业银行在这段时期内的成本效率，结论表明：我国商业银行的成本效率在近年来有所提升，国有商业银行和股份制商业银行的平均成本效率相差不大，并在不断接近。     

我国商业银行发展中间业务的战略选择

2001年,我国正式加入了WTO,根据我国政府的承诺,到2005年,我国金融服务业将逐步全面开放,这无疑将给金融业带来极大冲击.笔者认为:银行中间业务将是外资银行进入中国金融市场的"切入点"之一,我国商业银行必须以积极的态度,采取切实有效的措施,在这一领域尽快开拓、创新,才能从容面对外资银行挑战.     

我国商业银行成本效率比较研究——基于所有制结构分析角度

随着我国金融市场的不断开放,商业银行面临的竞争压力不断加剧,而效率是影响商业银行生死存亡的重要因素。本文基于所有制结构分析角度,运用超效率DEA模型对我国4家国有商业银行和9家股份制商业银行2006年至2010年的成本效率进行了研究,并将成本效率进一步分解为技术效率和配置效率进行了比较分析。实证分析结果表明:我国商业银行成本效率总体呈上升趋势;不同所有制结构的银行中,国有商业银行技术效率高于股份制商业银行,而配置效率低于股份制商业银行。本文提出可从优化产权结构、提高资产质量、加大金融产品创新力度方面提高成本效率的对策建议。     

打包银行卡支付系统

随着我国银行业逐步建立起以国有、商业银行为主体，多种金融机构并存的市场体系，国内银行之间的竞争日益激烈。而加入WTO后我国金融市场的逐步开放，又使得各银行面临前所未有的国外金融机构的竞争与挑战。在内外夹攻之下，降低经营成本、提高运作效率，不断提升核心竞争能力，不断创新和变革成为我国各银行寻求突破和发展的主旋律。银行信息化也围绕着这个主旋律不断走向纵深。     

商业银行效率评价中的数据包络方法改进

研究商业银行的效率中使用的数据包络方法是利用线性规划技术,在不需要预先设定生产函数的前提下,综合考虑商业银行的多种投入和多种产出,得出反映商业银行资源利用情况的技术效率估计值,以及代表商业银行在成本控制和提润创造方面能力的成本、利润效率的估计值.本文总结了两类效率的计算方法,改进了投入产出变量设置,针对2001-2008年我国17家商业银行的数据,得出在此期间内我国商业银行在两类效率--技术效率、成本效率和利润效率方面的表现.     

当前商业银行个人理财业务的困境及对策

融着我国个人财富的增长、金融市场的发展以及加入WTO后银行业逐步开放,我国商业银行个人理财业务的发展前景十分广阔.本文对我国商业银行个人理财业务发展中存在的因境进行了分析,提出了对策和建议.     

中央银行监管政策与商业银行经营效率

随着金融市场的深化和开放,银行业者与学者都很关心监管政策与商业银行运营效率之间的关系.由于中国金融市场的特殊性,本文期望通过对全球数据进行定量分析而对中国金融市场的监管问题做出一个定性的解释.具体而言,本文通过对世界银行的数据进行随机前沿分析和Tobit回归分析,得出一系列银行监管政策,包括资本充足率,商业银行行为约束,监管体制和存款保险,与商业银行运营表现的关系.我们的结论证明银行监管政策与商业银行的运营效率有直接的联系.     

拓展中间业务盈利空间的探讨

随着我国加入世界贸易组织,金融市场逐步开放,金融服务和金融创新日趋多样化,国内商业银行要巩固和占有国内金融市场份额,发展中间业务成为现实选择。随着金融产品的拓展和创新,中间业务已成为我国各家商业银行新的效益增长点。     

如何加强金穗信用卡营销管理

我国已加入WTO,在今后的3—5年里,各地金融业的开放问题是金融界最重要的焦点问题之一。随着金融市场的逐步开放,外资银行来中国发展业务将逐步增多。虽然国内银行业可以吸收外资银行的先进管理经验、促进改革,但是在客户与人才的竞争方面,特别是银行机制的竞争上,外资银行会给国内银行带来压力。银行卡业务也是如此,我国商业银行的银     

商业银行利率风险测度研究（上篇）

自1996年我国利率市场化进程正式启动以来,货币市场利率已基本市场化,存贷款利率也部分市场化。利率市场化给了国内各家商业银行自主定价权和利率浮动权。伴随着利率的逐步市场化以及遵循WTO承诺全面开放金融市场后国内外商业银行竞争的炽热化,商业银行的利率风险凸现,并将逐步取代信用风险成为商业银行经营管理的主要风险。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.