中国南北经济差距及其趋势预测

南北地区发展问题近年来逐渐凸显，促进南北地区协调发展有利于推动经济高质量发展。本文利用Dagum基尼系数和空间Markov链方法，使用1978—2019年中国31个省份人均GDP、居民人均可支配收入、居民消费水平、固定资产投资额和进出口额数据，测度中国南北地区经济差距，并对其时空演进趋势作出预测。研究表明，1978年以来中国南北地区经济发展水平不断提高，近年来南方地区人均GDP、居民人均可支配收入、居民消费水平、固定资产投资额和进出口额均高于北方。Dagum基尼系数结果发现，人均GDP、居民人均可支配收入、居民消费水平、固定资产投资额和进出口额的地区差距主要来源均为地区内差距，考察后期南北地区间基尼系数均呈现升高态势。空间Markov链结果表明，南北地区经济发展水平存在显著空间依赖性，南方地区在人均GDP、进出口额方面向上转移概率较高，北方地区在居民人均可支配收入、居民消费水平和固定资产投资额方面向上转移概率较高。     

居民储蓄的新变化

今年以来我国居民收入明显快于去年，上半年城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长8．7%，农民人均现金收入实际增长109％．分别比去年同期提高0.3和8．4个百分点．居民收入增长情况明显好于往年。但是，居民储蓄存款却出现下降，1-9月份．我国居民储蓄存款增加12万亿元．同比少增加2070亿元。为什么会出现居民收入增加，储蓄存款增量下降这种背离现象呢？     

北京市旅游业发展的策略探究

随着我国对外开放的逐步深入和经济水平的进一步提高,旅游业也迅猛发展。本文对影响北京市旅游业收入的7个经济因素进行主成分分析,分析结果得出了两个主成分,利用这两个主成分对北京市旅游业的收入进行回归并建立线性回归模型,模型结果显示对旅游业收入影响较大的是地区人均GDP、城镇居民人均生活消费支出、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入、人均储蓄额和城市人口数。对此,为发展北京市旅游业政府应当努力提高居民人均收入,增加消费信心及拓展旅游市场,制定旅游计划等。     

人均可支配收入的数字让人五味杂陈

<正>国家统计局2月24日公布的《中华人民共和国2013年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示,2013年,我国GDP达56.8845万亿元,增长7.7%;GDP与全部就业人员的比率为66199元/人,提高7.3%;全国居民人均可支配收入18311元,增长10.9%,扣除价格因素,实际增长8.1%。     

人均可支配收入的数字让人五味杂陈

国家统计局2月24日公布的《中华人民共和国2013年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示,2013年,我国GDP达56．8845万亿元,增长7．7％;GDP与全部就业人员的比率为66199元／人,提高7.3％;全国居民人均可支配收入18311元,增长10．9％,扣除价格因素,实际增长8．1％。     

广西各地区居民生活质量评价实证研究

文章从人均GDP、人均消费、人均可支配收入、人均住宅面积、各地区教育经费等10个方面提出了广西居民生活质量评价指标体系,并采用因子分析法对广西14个市的居民生活质量进行了评价和分析,并指出了各地区之间的差异。     

数字

正29547元国家统计局1月20日公布,2013年我国城镇居民人均总收入为29547元。其中,城镇居民人均可支配收入26955元,较2012年名义增长9.7%,扣除价格因素实际增长7.0%。在城镇居民人均总收入中,工资性收入较2012年名义增长9.2%,经营净收入增长9.8%,财产性收入增长14.6%,转移性收入增长10.1%。全年城镇居民人均可支配收入中位数2.42万元,较2012年名义增长10.1%。     

利率变动对我国人身保险保费收入的影响——基于非线性STR模型的实证分析

本文基于STR模型，对1982—2010年我国存款利率变动与人身保险保费收入之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明，当存款利率水平处于较低水平时（6％以下），STR模型中的非线性特征不明显。人均GDP增长为人身保险保费收入增长提供了动力，存款余额增加对人身保险保费收入增加有抑制作用。当存款利率水平处于较高水平时（超过6％），STR模型的非线性特征趋向显著，人均GDP增加对人身保险保费收入增长的减弱，存款余额对人身保险保费收入产生的收入效应大于替代效应的同时，取代人均GDP成为了人身保险保费收入增长的主要动力。     

居民消费结构变化对广东经济的影响

一、广东城乡居民消费结构变动趋势分析(一)全省城镇居民收支情况分析1.人均可支配收入与支出持续增长调查资料显示,2004年我省城镇居民人均可支配收入13627.65元,比上年增长10.1%,扣除物价因素实际增长7.3%。人均消费性支出10694.79元,增长11.0%,扣除物价因素实际增长8.2%(Ⅱ)     

国有与民营企业对区域经济贡献的对比研究

比较国有和民营企业对于区域经济发展的贡献,可以促进正确认识二者发展对推动区域经济增长的影响程度,进而判断区域经济政策的着力方向。本文从人均财政收入、居民人均可支配收入和人均国内生产总值三个维度入手,运用我国18个省区市的面板数据,通过建立联立方程模型,对比我国国有企业和民营企业对区域经济的贡献差异。研究结果表明,整体上我国民营企业对于省域经济的贡献优于国有企业,民营企业的就业人数对提高居民人均可支配收入和人均国内生产总值的优势尤为明显。     

公司治理、资本监管与银行风险承担

选取2007-2017年中国25家上市银行数据,采用面板回归模型对公司治理与资本监管对银行风险承担的影响进行实证分析。研究表明：股权集中度与银行风险承担之间呈正U型关系,较低的股权集中度会降低银行风险资产配置权重,股权集中度的提升会加大银行风险承担。董事会规模会促进银行风险承担,董事会规模过大将平滑单个董事表决权,导致董事会控制效率下降而引发银行经营决策频繁变动,由此加大银行风险承担。资本监管会抑制银行风险承担,资本监管的趋严促使银行减持风险资产进行资本补充;资本监管对股份制银行、国有大型银行与城农商银行风险承担的影响力度依次递减。货币供给增速的放缓将降低银行存款吸收能力,由此加大银行流动性风险,货币供给对银行信贷存在制约效应;经济增速的下调将降低企业盈利能力,由此加大银行风险承担,银行存在顺周期放贷倾向。     

Policies to change the priority of claimants: The case of depositor preference laws

Depositor preference laws have been proposed to reduce the cost of bank failures to the deposit insurance agencies. This article shows how depositor preference rules change the payoff functions for bank creditors, including the deposit insurer, depositors, and nondepositor claimants. The adoption of depositor preference laws would appear to make nondepositors worse off, but they can improve their standing by collateralizing their claims. If a large enough proportion of nondepositor claims becomes collateralized, depositor preference could increase the cost of bank failure to the deposit insurance agency. Empirical analysis indicates that depositor preference will induce a substantial increase in collateralization, eliminating a significant share of the savings envisioned for the deposit insurer. Depositor preference will also reduce interest rates on uninsured deposits.     

The spread of deposit insurance and the global rise in bank asset risk since the 1970s

We construct a new measure of deposit insurance generosity for many countries, empirically model the exogenous international influences on the adoption and generosity of deposit insurance and use a novel econometric method to explore the causal chain from the expansion of deposit insurance generosity to increased overall lending, increased lending to households, increased banking system leverage, and more severe and frequent banking crises. Greater deposit insurance generosity robustly produces greater overall lending relative to bank assets and more lending to households relative to both bank assets and GDP, and results in higher banking system leverage. Our estimates, however, are not conclusive regarding whether greater deposit insurance generosity resulted in greater total loans relative to GDP or in more frequent or severe banking crises.     

融资流动性对商业银行资产配置行为的动态影响

使用14家上市银行2007~2013年季度数据建立面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析融资流动性对银行资产配置行为的动态影响。研究结果表明：存款成本和银行间融资成本的上升,会激励银行增加风险资产,减少流动性储备,不利于银行防范结构性流动性风险;存款流失会削弱银行贷款扩张的动力,提升流动性偏好;同业融资依赖性的上升短期内可以改善银行资产的流动性,长期则会加大资金借短贷长的问题,为流动性危机埋下隐患。     

地方政府债券置换对银行信贷及货币供给的影响

通过构建基于商业银行资产负债结构的地方债置换分析框架,研究表明,地方债置换将通过商业银行资产结构在贷款与债券之间的配置调整影响货币供给,它将使银行可贷资金增加,并导致贷款规模的变化,在贷款创造存款的信用放大机制下,引起货币供应量的变化,进而造成货币政策的扩张(收缩).贷款市场的供求弹性将决定地方债置换的扩张效应或收缩效应.在经济增长放缓、银行为弥补持有地方债收益下降、地方债纳入货币政策工具的抵押品和质押品范围的情况下,地方债置换具有货币政策扩张效应.为减少地方债对金融市场的冲击,央行需密切监测商业银行资金运用情况,提高货币政策操作的针对性,并加强同财政政策的协同配合.     

Deposit market competition,wholesale funding,and bank risk

Empirical research on the effect of bank competition on bank risk has so far produced very inconclusive results. In this paper we revisit this long-standing debate and propose a new empirical approach that is concentrated on the relationship between deposit market competition and bank risk. This approach closely follows the traditional theoretical views of the competition and risk relationship and is focused on testing the classical moral hazard problem of the bank: deposit market competition raises the optimal risk choice of the bank by raising the costs of bank liabilities. Since banks can substitute between retail and wholesale funding, we relate deposit market competition to wholesale market conditions and examine their joint effect on the risk of bank assets. The analysis is based on a unique, comprehensive dataset, which combines retail deposit rate data with data on bank characteristics and data on local deposit market features for a sample of 589 US banks. Our results support the notion of a risk-enhancing effect of deposit market competition.     

Bank Mergers and the Dynamics of Deposit Interest Rates

Despite extensive research interest in the last decade, the banking literature has not reached a consensus on the impact of bank mergers on deposit rates. In particular, results on the dynamics of deposit rates surrounding bank mergers vary substantially across studies. In this paper, we aim for a comprehensive empirical analysis of a bank merger’s impact on deposit rate dynamics. We base the analysis on a unique dataset comprising deposit rates of 624 US banks with a monthly frequency for the time period 1997–2006. These data are matched with individual bank and local market characteristics and the complete list of bank mergers in the US. The data allow us to track the dynamics of bank mergers while controlling for the rigidity of the deposit rates and for a range of merger, bank, and local market features. An innovation of our work is the introduction of an econometric approach for estimating the change of the deposit rates given their rigidity.     

Interest rate deregulation: Monetary policy efficacy and rate rigidity

This paper examines the effects of interest rate regulation, and subsequent deregulation, on the efficacy of monetary policy and rigidity of retail bank deposit rates in Hong Kong. Using an error-correction model, we find that interest rate deregulation increases the efficacy of monetary policy by improving the correlation between retail bank deposit rates and market interest rates and increasing the degree of long-term pass-through for retail bank deposit rates. Our study also shows that the adjustments in retail bank deposit rates are asymmetric and rigid upwards during the regulated period, but tend to be rigid downwards during the deregulated period. The spreads between retail bank deposit rates and market rates have also tightened sharply after the removal of interest rate controls.     

Capital Requirements,Monetary Policy,and Aggregate Bank Lending: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Capital requirements linked solely to credit risk are shown to increase equilibrium credit rationing and lower aggregate lending. The model predicts that the bank's decision to lend will cause an abnormal runup in the borrower's stock price and that this reaction will be greater the more capital-constrained the bank. I provide empirical support for this prediction. The model explains the recent inability of the Federal Reserve to stimulate bank lending by increasing the money supply. I show that increasing the money supply can either raise or lower lending when capital requirements are linked only to credit risk.     

Collateralization,leverage, and stressed expected loss

We describe a general equilibrium model with a banking system in which the deposit bank collects deposits from households and the merchant bank provides funds to firms. The merchant bank borrows collateralized short-term funds from the deposit bank. In an economic downturn, as the value of collateral decreases, the merchant bank must sell assets on short notice, reinforcing the crisis, and defaults if its cash buffer is insufficient. The deposit bank suffers from losses because of the depreciated assets. If the value of the deposit bank's assets is insufficient to cover deposits, it also defaults. Deposits are insured by the government, with a premium paid by the deposit bank equal to its expected loss on the deposits. We define the bank's capital shortfall in the crisis as the expected loss on deposits under stress. We calibrate the model on the U.S. economy and show how this measure of stressed expected loss behaves for different calibrations of the model. A 40% decline of the securities market would induce a loss of 12.5% in the ex-ante value of deposits.